Opinion: The PFT of Besigye doesn’t seem well-planned…

It is not the first time that Dr. Kizza Besigye and his allies in the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) have worked alone and without much outside support. However, the establishment of the People’s Front for Transition (PFT) isn’t build on a strong foundation. At least not in concern with other opposition allies.

This week it is clear that Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) isn’t really involved as it was stated in the launch. Where some fractions of the parties was part of it. There was one piece of UPC members and the DP Block. Those have been dismissed by the parties itself.

As well, as the spats and dismissals from the National Unity Platform (NUP) which would be the most important ally at this stage and time. The NUP is the biggest opposition party and has a similar agenda, as the FDC. They are maybe different in the manner of which they operate. Still, the objective and the end-game is about the same. NUP and FDC both works for a peaceful transition from dictator Museveni.

That Besigye have the best intentions and will with the upstart of PFT. I have no doubt in my mind and with his experience of doing this. I know that he wants to succeed and wants to assemble a collective for change. He doesn’t want people to give up and stop the cause. A cause, which he has dedicated his whole career too.

The PFT has been painful from the start. There is usually growing pains of an organization, but this is just hectic from the early beginning. You can wonder how this was communicated and organized. Since everyone in and around is either distancing itself from it or they are minor fractions participating, except for the main party FDC.

This means that except for the FDC. Justice Forum (JEEMA), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and People’s Progressive Party (PPP). There isn’t much great support in the opposition for it. There is no joint effort here and there is nothing pushing it together. Because, the launch made it believe to be bigger.

The JEEMA, SDP and PPP isn’t parties of which has big significance. They are JEEMA and PPP have one MP each and that’s about it. The SDP was part of DP Block and seems like the Michael Mabikke’s briefcase party. Therefore, the strenght of the pressure group or coalition is on thin-ice.

It is not like it’s a big unite and brigade. Yes, they are collective, but not a sort of unifying you would need. The PFT is weak because of this. When the DP and UPC also reacts like they do. Then you know that the PFT wasn’t launched in order to have them sufficiently participating in it. Like there wasn’t meetings, consultations or even gatherings to make it happen. Therefore, it wasn’t only NUP who ditched out of it. Nearly nobody joined and the ones who did… well … they have to move mountains with their bare hands.

The PFT needs a boost and Besigye needs to consult with the others. That is if it has a mission and goal to be strong functioning unit of the opposition. Clearly, there has been an aftermath that the PFT didn’t want. This is just jaded and not how it supposed to look. Peace.

Opinion: FDC always wants to be United on its own terms…

Well, I never wanted to do this, but the way Patrick Oboi Amuriat and other FDC leaders have acted lately. It is time to challenge the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and their manners. This isn’t anything new… just like after the recent elections, the FDC and the leadership went on a rampage against National Unity Platform (NUP). Even after the NUP asked for meeting and coordination with the other opposition parties.

Now, this week the FDC has launched a new opposition coalition in the People’s Front for Transition (PFT). Nothing wrong in doing that, but they didn’t do in a way, which the NUP felt at home there. Neither has the FDC or NUP resolved the previous coalition of United Forces for Change (UFC) which was founded in 2020 ahead of the polls. So, it is really questionable to start a fresh one this quick.

The FDC wasn’t that diplomatic or helpful with all parties in the 2011 Inter-Party Cooperation. A coalition where the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Democratic Party (DP) didn’t participate in. As they felt the way it was launched and created was to benefit FDC and their flagbearers. That’s why dropped out of it.

In 2016, there was another coalition made ahead of the polls. The Democratic Alliance (TDA) of which the FDC dropped out. Since, they didn’t get the flagbearer and they we’re afraid to support other parties within the coalition. As, the FDC was seen as the biggest party and they felt betrayed that they wouldn’t have the Presidential Candidate. The TDA eventually went for Amama Mbabazi, as he was independent candidate for a pressure group at that time.

Now, in 2021 after the polls and with an unsuccessful stint with the UFC. Dr. Kizza Besigye is again launching a new coalition. It is filled with fractions of the DP and UPC party. Also with Conservative Party, JEEMA, People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and others too. However, it does not have the biggest opposition party the NUP. That means it isn’t a totally united force. Neither, does it have the main fractions of the DP & UPC. Which renders the question of the power and ability to widen the objectives of coalition in question.

In this way, it seems like again the other parties have to accept the FDC terms and perspective join forces. Not that the FDC have to meet and greet the others. They just have to follow the suit and the ideals of what the FDC or Besigye is saying. Besigye means well and the ideals his committed too. We can all agree upon, but this haven’t been well coordinated or successful. When only these are showing up and showing intent.

Maybe, the likes of the NUP feels betrayed themselves and humiliated by the way the FDC answered the callings earlier in the year. When the FDC wanted to even revoke or relinquish the membership of the FDC MPs who joined the Shadow Government. Heck, the FDC leadership went high and mighty against the NUP. Therefore, the FDC haven’t been forthcoming or concerning the NUP. Until, the the launch of PFT this week.

It seems like the FDC needs to reconsider their movements sometimes. Especially, when people are supposed forget how they acted just a few months ago. When the NUP even tried to show an olive-branch and that got dismissed. Why should the NUP jump on the bandwagon without hesitation? Because, the FDC is so unique. That everyone is supposed to follow it blindly?

No, that isn’t fair to the NUP. Neither would the FDC accept that. That is why they would have felt betrayed, if they were automatically part of the TDA without a shadow of a doubt. This is how it looks like and it’s not cool.

The FDC should know better. I don’t know if it’s entitlement after years as the upper-dog in the opposition. They have fought and can be an inspiration for the next generation. The FDC isn’t dead, but isn’t as viable and strong as it was. Besigye has still power and ability to sway opinion. However, FDC better act more cordial and be more sincere. They cannot bushwhack others to submission. That is not how things works.

The NUP is free to join or not. Just like it didn’t IPOD either. They are finding their own path and that should be respected at this point. The NUP tried with the FDC in the UFC, which was useless. So, why should they trust in the PFT? Peace.

Opinion: Another year, another coaltion created by Besigye – Is this enough?

From the launch last year in 2020

Dr. Kizza Besigye have together with allies created “People’s Front for Transition” (PFT) recently with the slogan “Twetaase” which means “Let Us Save Ourselves”. The National Unity Platform (NUP) have declined to join the PFT. Therefore, the coalition or pressure group doesn’t have the biggest opposition party behind it.

Besigye isn’t alone, but it is lonely place in some regard. Since, there are long-term allies who joins him no matter what he does. He has held several of campaigns and ran with new slogans. That is something he has done with a steady pace. It is not long ago on the 15th June 2020 Besigye and Bobi Wine announced the United Forces of Change (UFC). They would start with their joint campaign “No Nedda”.

With that in mind and it’s October 2021. The UFC didn’t do anything. The FDC went their own way and the NUP did the same. In this new organization of PFT there are fraction from the UPC and DP. People’s Progressive Party (PPP), JEEMA and the Conservative Party is part of it. The FDC is the main party when both Patrick Oboi Amuriat and Erias Lukwago was participating in the launch.

This time Besigye is trying to hard. He should have tried to work on the agreement, which was already done with UFC. A coalition that hasn’t delivered or done anything. That is very clear, as the UFC was invisible and non-active during the campaigns. Therefore, Besigye should have alerted and made it relevant for Bobi Wine to use during his campaign trail. Alas, that wasn’t the case and it ended up being an photo-op.

Some might say… NUP is ditching out and not using their means to properly participate here. However, there is no binding or expectations of them to do so. This is a initiative and there is nothing in the cards that says they should join either. Because, the merits of the previous one amounted to nothing.

Who thinks the PFT will be more successful than the UFC? Or is this another IPC?

I know that Besigye means well and wants to succeed. He has had this ambition and drive for a peaceful transition most of his career. Besigye should also question himself… why is he starting yet another one?

Is he gaining anything out of this. Except having several of outfits as his start-ups. It is time to deliver results and add pressure to the regime. Yes, plenty of the opposition parties wants the regime gone. However, should Besigye negotiate more and find more allies before launching anything?

He is not the “sole” leader. Yes, Besigye is inspirational and has told the stories on how to dismantle the current leadership. Alas, people haven’t listened or gained enough attention to follow him. There is hope that one day they would. However, he needs Bobi Wine at this current time. The NUP is a growing power and they needs to be in sync.

Has Besigye outplayed himself here? Should he have moved more smart and tried to work with the NUP more closely before launching?

Or did Besigye give up on UFC? Since he maybe felt like everyone else… that this was a useless coalition. So, why expect the NUP to join another one? Peace.

Opinion: Bobi Wine’s ideal is commendable, but his warning to Mzee will not be followed

Today, the People Power Movement hold a Presser in the home of Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine in Kyadondo East, Wakiso District. This is not the first time he has held a press conference there. That is just the way things are in the Republic. Today’s Presser is an answer to the “Scientific” elections in the revised road map for the General Elections in 2021.

We know Bobi Wine is a fierce speaker and he proven that yet again today:

Museveni, like all dictators before him, is determined to keep in power at any cost. He does not care what happens to the people of Uganda, as long as he is in State House! Fellow Ugandans, Museveni is at it again. He recently met with the Electoral Commission and gave them orders to organize what he called a scientific election. Using the coronavirus as an excuse, he is banning public rallies and other aspects of an election as we know them! No Ugandan should be fooled into believing that Museveni is doing this for the safety of Ugandans. As we speak now, most urban places are filled with people going about their usual business uninterrupted. No social distancing, no nothing. If anyone has any doubts, please visit Kikuubo, or any other urban place. Therefore Museveni and the Electoral Commission should not take Ugandans for fools” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

What he said here is the truth. Bobi Wine just said what’s needed to be said. Many wouldn’t dare saying this and with his platform he still does it. Plenty of more people will listen, because he said it. Kizza Besigye has said similar before, in other instances, but now that Bobi Wine says it. It might have more flair to it. As it yet another leader of the opposition who sees it.

But let me use this opportunity to put President Museveni on notice. You might have forgotten what you said in 1980 but we have not forgotten. On the eve of the 1980 election, you, Museveni, put Obote on notice. You said that if he rigged that election, you would go to the bush and fight against him. We have come to that point yet again. We are telling you that you either organize a free and fair election or step down peacefully, but if you continue provoking the patience of the people of Uganda, they will rise up against you and you will end up in the dustbin of history like your friend Ghadafi, like your friend Mobutu and like your friend Omar El Bashir” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

Here is revisiting history, a history that the President has been proud of and repeated so that all generations and walks of life knows. The President cannot hide that. Museveni is so proud of how he got to power and all the people he finessed to get there. We all know this, as it has been blasted for years and years to the public. He has even walked twice in the steps of the bush-war to celebrate the civil war he was the victor of back-in-the-day.

Bobi Wine’s notice is noble idea. It is righteous step. However, there is no way in hell that Museveni will hold a free and fair elections. President Museveni wouldn’t win in a free and fair election. He knows this and the whole Republic knows this. That is why he has total control of the Electoral Commission and all other authorities needed to own the state.

The opposition are right and justified to ask for a free and fair election. Anyone who takes a stand and wants to challenge for public office should be able to do so. Where everyone has the same opportunity for everyone. Where everyone has the same difficulties and everyone who becomes a candidate can win and can challenge the results without interference in the elections. However, that is not how its in the republic where the state and the incumbents of the government has an upperhand with resources and control of the Electoral Commission.

Bobi Wine and everyone else is allowed to say their grievances towards this system. A system built for Museveni and his cadres. The 2021 election will not differ from 2016, 2011, 2006, 2001 and 1996. All of these has been rigged, just like they have tried to do with every single by-election too. This is not news, but a reality that the President has created over the years.

The challenge is healthy, the challenge is needed, but hopefully not just words. But a STERN WARNING about what Bobi Wine and the United Forces for Change (UFC) will deliver. I don’t believe a second that the National Resistance Movement or the President will not rig these up-coming election. That would be a lie. A big FAT lie. This regime knows only how to win by pre-fixing the results to their advantage. To say otherwise is naive and stupid.

Bobi Wine did the right thing, but the state will not steer the wheel differently. For the simple reason: They are not willing to loose, because this is all they have. Peace.

Another Opposition Coalition (UFC) to beat Mzee: Will it work this time?

There was once upon a time the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) for the 2011. This was a coalition of six parties, while three parties later had a fall out with it and its choices. Therefore, the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both went out and ran on their own. DP and UPC wanted to run their own Presidential Candidates, while SDP was furious that the mayoral choice for Kampala. We know that this didn’t work at this General Election. The coalition in the end was a mix of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

For the 2016 General Election there was another Opposition Coalition in play. This was the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which consisted of various of opposition parties too. However, here the parties that pulled out of it was the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to field their own Presidential Candidate. The ones remaining was the pressure group Go Forward (Amama Mbabazi), Pressure for National Unity (PNU) Gilbert Bukenya, Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Justice Forum (JEEMA). We see here that DP and UPC didn’t ditch it, as Norbert Mao couldn’t run and James Akena didn’t run for the Presidency this time. Because these parties challenged with Mao (DP) in 2011 and Olara Otunnu (UPC), but this round they couldn’t or wasn’t fit. That is why they supported the candidacy of Amama Mbabazi (Go Forward). We know that Amama and the TDA flame fizzled out quickly.

So, when I heard today that the Pressure Group People’s Power Movement (PPM), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Truth and Justice (TJ), Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) are all involved in the United Forces for Change (UFC) for the 2021 General Elections.

The main leaders this time is Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC) and Robert Kyagulanyi (PPM). Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Mugisha Muntu has opted out and at this time his right not to join. His reasons are clear, but it’s a bit funny. Because he had no issues with joining the Special Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the Democratic Party (DP) and the union of similar parties. So, in this regard it might be spite, because he would still be in the shadow of former leader and party president of the FDC. That is just how it looks from the outside looking in. When leaders from all the other opposition parties are joining. Not that its shocking, but don’t expect everyone to join the ride.

Expect the DP to fall out, as Mao has grudges with Besigye. JEEMA, TJ and CP will be on the ride the whole time. They only gain positives by it and have a bigger platform during the election cycle. However, with the past history. The grinding questions of how close the UPC is to the NRM. There will only be fringes of the party to join the UFC. Akena will not ditch the money train of the NRM Alliance to be part of UFC. Also with all the things Mao has done behind the scenes, I don’t expect him to run behind Besigye and Bobi Wine. His already a bit mad at Besigye for some unfortunate reason. So, we can only imagine that he will ditch out here for the DP Block and whatever he calls it. So, I anticipate the UPC and DP to tell its members to come home. If they don’t than they are betraying their parties. That is why Lukwago is a TJ and not a DP anymore.

Let me clear after all that said: Yes, I want change, but if you cannot see a pattern here. These platforms, these coalitions aren’t making it. There is a reason there is a need for many challengers. The strength, their vision and their manifestos comes out and can change things up. To beat the NRM by the polls, by an election is futile. That has been proven since 1986. Not because of lack of trying. Not because there haven’t candidates suitable or popular to beat Museveni. No, because there haven’t been the will to give way for a peaceful transition. Museveni will not loose now either. He will rig the election into oblivion. No matter what the opposition throws at it, the results will be about the same. Just different faces, unless they want to show civil disobedience and actually attack the heart of the government. Break it down to its knees and ensure its downfall. That will cost, but through the polls. I can assure you, nothing will happen. The status quo continues and the same party reign supreme. They got the guns and the authorities to send the others packing.

The UFC will have the same fate as IPC and TDA. Maybe more finesse behind Bobi Wine than a insider and friendly NRMer in Amama. Still, the UFC will only have a fools hope. Just like Frodo in the Lord of the Rings. As Gandalf said in ‘The Return of the King’:

Tell me,’ he said, ‘is there any hope? For Frodo, I mean; or at least mostly for Frodo.’ Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol–‘ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. And yet in truth I believe that the news that Faramir brings has some hope in it. For it seems clear that the Enemy has opened his war at last and made the first move when Frodo was still free. So now for many days he will have his eye turned this way and that, away from his own land. And yet, Pippin, I feel from afar his haste and fear. He has begun sooner than he would. Something has happened to stir him.”- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

In the same way I look at this UFC. Not because I don’t want the junta, the militarized government and the oppressors out the Republic and into a proper civilian government. I want all of that to happen. The injustice has been going on for far too long. However, using similar tricks to beat the same dragon. I doubt it will have affect. Even if it has a new potential leader and could be the Frodo who gets the ring to Mount Doom to change history of Middle Earth to break the power of Sauron and Mordor. Still, that is a fools errand to believe that, even if the hope is there. Just like it was plenty of times with Besigye.

We need the hope and have fate that someone will bring the ring to Mount Doom. However, is this the team and the pacifier to stop the NRM? I don’t have the answer… I really don’t, but I just want them to challenge the authorities head-on and not play games that has been fought before. The names changes, but the end game stays the same.

Bobi Wine is maybe Frodo here, but that is only a lucky guess. Then Besigye is his Samwise Gamgee. But we don’t know that and Sauron continues to deploy his troops and ensure that no one gets unscratched by his army of Orcs. Right? You get the drill?

I don’t have the answers, but I just feel we are repeating history without crossing the authorities with enough power and finesse. We are doing the same old thing and getting nowhere. Stalling awaiting for the lucky brother to find the Ring in the river and get turned into Gollum. Instead of being a Frodo going into a journey, which will change everything, but will also cost. Peace.