Analysis of the Pre-Election Period; as the Parties and Candidates make the preparations before the polls

As we go in the final week before the polls happens on the 18^th February as the public and citizens will go to the polls and give their votes. The parties are doing the final preparations and rallies to generate the outcome the want.

This has been three horse race, as the five other candidates has not shined as much as NRM’s President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, FDC’s Dr. Kizza Besigye and Go-Forward/TDA Amama Mbabazi. Not as Abed Bwanika of the People’s Development Party hasn’t had done a bad campaign; I would say the opposite; but he is not in the league of gentlemen first noticed. Another candidate who has done well considering the beginning is Gen. Benon Buta Biraaro of the Farmers Party has done a decent job and said certain things that have been spot-on. Still, his reach has not come to any level of challenging the big-league. Joseph Mabirizi has become a punchline and not a candidate that justify the time he has spent or the money his campaign used. The only female in the race Maureen Kyalya Wamula has not been great sport, she is smart and wise, but loses the final touch as she speeds away a month in London; when arrives back travers Busoga again. She should instead tried to become a MP from Busoga, then becoming President as it would be fitting by how she did her campaign! Professor Venansius Baryamureeba the independent candidate haven’t made any noticeable progress other than pledges that are out of his league and I personally lost touch of him after the #UGDebate16 as he been in the wind.

So I will not discuss the 5 candidates unless they did something magical. As there been moments, but not many. Just as the media report Museveni and his NRM has “owned” the media, had most space in papers, radios and TV, even with the issues Museveni has had with NTV, Daily Monitor and a rare bunch of local radio channels; Mbabazi comes second most of the time in the report, but either the same as Besigye or not; Besigye been third or second with around 20 %.. So when President Museveni has cried foul it’s been because his make-up hasn’t been perfect while the drones driving over the campaign venue or the headlines in the newspapers he never reads is written in wrong fonts so he can’t find out what it means. As he is watching the pictures and cartoons as that is deep enough for the Mzee!

We can easily see the hurt in NRM, as Go-Forward and Mbabazi is getting crowds without ferrying them, even when they work hard to pay people to shun his rallies, while they people to come to rallies; but never in the same place as the rally, the buses has to go into the villages and give UGX 5k and a t-shirt to get them to show-up at the Mzee venue. While Mbabazi Go-Forward has had massive deflections even major parts of his security detail went to the NRM and Go Forward officials in Teso region have disowned purported defectors, from their camp to the ruling National Resistance Movement-NRM party.  On Tuesday, more than 700 people were paraded before the First lady, Janet Museveni at Soroti State lodge claiming that they had defected from the camp of ex-prime minister. Even in Karamoja Janet Museveni has paid people who supposed to be FDC or Go-Forward to deflect to NRM.

While the NRM front-man was really humiliated in Kayunga Town on the 8^th February 2016 as the NRM Poor Youth would not mobilize for him. As he didn’t get the news from Isa Kato that NRM Poor Youth becoming Ugandan Poor Youth Forum on the 6^th January and pleading their alliance to Mbabazi. That must hurt Mzee! As his former outfit have distanced themselves from NRM by giving their credentials to Mbabazi; it’s not a good luck when especially his NRM Mobilisers like Mike Ssebalu (Sebalu) didn’t contact the locals in other ways, as also the locals did not want to be ferried to the campaign venue. That must be slap on his face!

Besigye, the People’s President is really having a blast on the campaign trail and his campaign rallies has been massive as he has not gone into the meager display of the NRM, which has to ferry crowds from other parts of the country or villages with their yellow buses or even hire other transport companies to send people to his venues. While Dr. Kizza Besigye get people hyped and walking with swagger before arriving, they washing the roads and making the venues ready, the roads are blocked by crowds in procession to the stadiums and main squares as the people is really ready for change of the guards.

NRM seems exhausted even when dropping millions upon millions to every village, having the NRM Mobilisers and NRM leaders giving money to villagers. NRM continue to give money to bribe people to vote for them, this is the way have to because they have no legitimate ways of political framework as everything seem more to corrupted by the position the leadership of NRM handling it. As the Primaries was a strange nearly fictional event which was marred with malfunctions.

Just as the NRM EC under Dr. Tanga Odoi has been capable of doing some strange things during the party elections; the Electoral Commission have recently hope that the Ugandan citizens and NGOs continue to be ignorant about their actions. As they introduced a new voting slip system that you search on their site to get your place to go to vote, also where to pick-up the slip.

The Electoral Commission have also dropped the voters register who was compiled with deceased people and ghost voters in the size of 20,000 that took the Chairman nearly two weeks before he addressed. Before he addressed it the rumors of trying to leave the country during this week, while being stopped by 7 military vehicles and not able to leave as he has to do a service for the Mzee. Badru M. Kiggundu is soon looking like a Thomas Moore kind of man; as he is a blind Yellow Fellow who has sold his soul to Mzee, while missing the ingredient of the he getting his head chopped for not following the orders the king gives to him.

The NRM people is addressing the public with fear and telling that the world will dismantle into pieces if they don’t go for the NRM. That is an terrifying way of rhetoric and that Mzee even had to address Lukwago in a dismissal and unfavorable way that none deserve, as the old man with the hat should show some respect to other leaders in the country. The Police continue to oppress the FDC and opposition parties.

The Army is deploying more and more people in the streets as pictures of trucks and soldiers to spread fear in Kampala as the legitimacy is gone. The only way people staying loyal to the ruling-party is if they are payed enough or facilitated to the max so the houses and cars paid by the NRM; not on their own original salary.

New Vision continues writing fictitious polls giving the NRM and Museveni 53 % as servicing the ruling regime until the end. But while we know the Vision Media group and it’s radios and newspapers are owned by Museveni; so they will write in favor of Mzee at any cost, even if it is far from the truth, because they got nothing else.

The interesting last thing I will say my piece on is the second #UGDebate where Museveni actually said he will show up, but he needed to send Justine Kasule Lumumba to facilitate the events in favor of her meal-ticket. As the other parties has no issues about the event, NRM can’t handle that the one person moderate Voice of America own journalist Shaka Ssali from Kabale. They would rather have a UBC journalist or anybody they could pocket to make it beautiful fairytale the NRM want to portray. While Mwenda has said he is not Museveni’s campaign manager and would advise him not to show up and grace the event. That tells more about Mwenda then the debate, as Mwenda is more a closet fan of Museveni now than he will ever admit and seems like he has switches he googles and seen the Resistance Light as he has changed his view 360 from 2008. NRM might attend the event. The rest has promised like last time and will show up. We can be sure about that, they got nothing to lose.

The NRM and Museveni will look even more foolish if they fear Shaka Ssali, then he really is a Donald Trump character as he can’t handle Megyn Kelly of Fox News. There is a picture for you. This is my view of recent; it changes with information and the movement on the ground. This is how I feel, not how mr. Zeke on Kampala Road feels, this is all me. Peace.  

On Andrew Mwenda and Corruption – how he has changed his mind over the years

It’s been a long walk for Andrew Mwenda the former Political Editor of the Daily Monitor of Uganda. The former enemy of the regime, the man who got 15 counts against him in court at a set of time for writing against the NRM regime is today another man. He has changed with quotes leading in Chimp reports sadden me. At some point I had faith in the man as a Nobel journalist who fought a just cause. I will show from today and famous words from before to show and mirror the man and how he has fallen from grace. Here I will go back to the letters which shows his colors in black and white. While taking the stand against in one minute and later being for it. This here is about the reach from today and the past where he said differently.

With the reference to the quotes from today’s Chimp reports it shows how he has fallen from grace:

“With a budget of 24 trillion, I think stealing 500 billion is peanuts (it’s a theft rate of less than 2%) In the wider scheme of things, a 2% theft rate is really small. It means that you are utilizing 98% of the money correctly” (…) “May be the stolen 500B is what ensures a stable political order without which we would have civil war. It is hard to tell. The point is, even if you were right about the loss of 500B; you don’t know the other opportunity cost of not stealing it!”(Waswa, 2015).

That is what he said today, but a few years ago when he went independent from the Daily Monitor. On the departure and resignation on the 16^th August 2007 the memorable quotes on the same issues is this:

“The major shareholder is given more investment deals in Uganda. I am a citizen of Uganda, not a mercenary. I therefore cannot betray the future of my country in order to retain the privilege of working or writing for Monitor. The future of Uganda is more than anything that money can buy” (…) “Because Monitor has succumbed to bribes and intimidation from the state, it is no longer the institution I was once proud to serve. It has lost its soul. It has betrayed its readers and listeners. It has betrayed Uganda. It has betrayed Africa. It has betrayed the cause of liberty and freedom. It has betrayed humankind. I cannot be an accomplice to this death of a dream whether because of state intimidation or of sweet heart business deals between the chief of state and the major shareholder. To do so would be identical to the action of Judas Iscariot who betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver” (Mwenda, 2007).

In 2008 letter for late payment for “advertisement” in his publication:

“This is to request you to pay Independence Publication Limited (IPL) US$ 200,000 (two hundred thousand United States dollars) only for adverts in the Independent newsmagazine for the government of Rwanda for the year 2008” (Mwenda, 2008).

In 2010 Mwenda continued the stride against corruption:

“the country needs to implement drastic reforms in order to bring its fiscal house in order and promote development using its own resources—starting with a more efficient and enforced system of taxation” (…) “tax collection by the Uganda Revenue Authority amounts to about 12 percent of GDP—well below the sub-Saharan African average of 18–20 percent and far from the government’s target of 24 percent” (…) “Uganda does not need more foreign aid” (…) “Rather, it needs to improve its tax administration by investing in better staff and motivating them with better pay and better facilities” (Probe International, 2010).

How Mwenda got paid from the Government of Rwanda:

“As capital, Mwenda was advanced $1 million from state consolidated fund termed as classified to start this magazine, then to help fight President Museveni’s Government that Kagame was not happy with” (…) “Mwenda who is on a monthly basis paid $200,000 from state coffers, for his rebuts and propaganda against Kagame’s critics and in defence of the dictator has no shame to compare Kigali roads and streets to Dubai, London and New York, forgetting that these roads are not more than 2 years old, compared to those that have stood a lifespan of more than 100 years” (Gasasira, 2013).

In January 2015 he even wrote this at his own leader in the Independent:

“Corruption is debated in mainstream media as a criminal act whose primary objective is to enrich individuals involved in it. Although it manifests itself this way, this is a residual part of the problem. The real issue about corruption in Uganda is that it is the essence of how political power in the country is organised, exercised, allocated, distributed and reproduced. Corruption is actually our system of government” (…) “President Yoweri Museveni’s greatest triumph has been to organise corruption on a broad-based scale. By expanding cabinet, the number of presidential advisors, increasing the number of districts, creating many commissions and autonomous government agencies and by establishing many security outfits, he has created highly diversified centers for corruption. Even the opposition has districts where they can goad themselves. Where in other nations corruption has been explosive, in Uganda it has been integrative” (Mwenda, 2015).

When you look through his quotes and what he has taken a stand for corruption in the past. And how he accepted certain pay-offs from Rwanda in the beginning of the Independent Magazine as early as 2008. While has had issues with barking at the government of Uganda. This is sadly ironic for this public character and writer that all people who knows Uganda, knows about. Therefore when the colors are off, you know see who he really has become.

So when you see how that money is making him blind on Rwanda and their issues. It is understandable why he will be a strong supporter of the third term in Rwanda. I am sure we will see more of that in the near future. But this here is about corruption and shows how he is not committed to it when it comes to Republic of Rwanda.

Secondly he has from the times of 2007 to 2015, shows the changes and how he has become something else then the man he wanted to be in 2007. If he really wanted to be that man with integrity and honor. He has now lost his marbles in the recent year or tired of being a true renegade against injustice in Uganda. Since he all of a sudden is fan of corruption and believes that generate actual growth. This in a country that has more and more debt, more and more local counties and ministers which cost more money, while it isn’t generating more tax money. That does not make sense Mr. Mwenda? Does it? Your supposed to an enlighten man, but your arguments today beats by your own old words. I am not sure if he is now positive since he claim that the government of Uganda is integrated with Corruption (which he said in January this year) then now in August he claims that it’s okay steal 500bn shillings when the budget is as much as 25 trillion shillings. Because it’s peanuts, it’s a saying that he now can think about: Respect is hard to earn and easy to lose. Something he has done now. With actually proclaiming for the world it’s okay to take 500bn from the state-coffers to their own gain then actually making something decent for their country.

Mr. Mwenda I am sorry whatever reason you can say that thieving is a good thing is wrong. It’s like tomorrow you will claim killing and the plague is great like Malthus is famous for saying: “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, we should reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases: and those benevolent, but much mistaken men, who have thought they were doing a service to mankind by projecting schemes for the total extirpation of particular disorders. If by these and similar means the annual mortality were increased … we might probably every one of us marry at the age of puberty and yet few be absolutely starved” (Marjie, 2009).

I am waiting for Mr. Mwenda to turn a blind eye to other issues in society. But today’s stupid comments on corruption are as mad as population control from the late Thomas Robert Malthus who lived 1766 – 1834. And Mr. Mwenda want to be seen as enlighten and educated TED talk’s kind of editor. With this kind of reasoning he is losing it. And I don’t know why, I am not sure if he knows why. He surely has become something else then the man who went away from a great position in the Daily Monitor to make his own workplace in the Independent Magazine in Uganda. Which is sad see if he has sold out totally, he will not be a crucial voice into the elections, which is coming in the 2016. He is surely not the man who needed a bail out in 12 August 2005 after being too critical on the KFM radio. That made the government angry so they actually turned off the radio transmitters for a week (Article 19, 2005).

So the man who has had issues with the government must has grown tired and wanted a decent day job instead of being a renegade watchdog with his own magazine. This has led to the quotes today which don’t fit the old reasoning of the same man. Mr. Mwenda, where did your mind go? And why did you change your mind? Peace.

Reference:

Article 19 – For Immediate Release – ‘Uganda: Sedition law must be abolished’ (26.09.2005). Link: https://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/press/uganda-sedition-law.pdf

Waswa, Sam – ‘Uganda Needs Corruption to Stimulate Economic Growth – Argues Mwenda’ (12.08.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/uganda-needs-corruption-to-stimulate-economic-growth-argues-mwenda/

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Resignation’ (16.08.2007) – Letter sent to the Managing Director of Monitor Publication.

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Payment for advertisement’- Letter from Independent Publication Ltd to Ministry of Finance, Republic of Rwanda (10.03.2008).

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘the political value of corruption’ (10.01.2015) link: http://independent.co.ug/andrewmwenda/?p=298

Marjie, Bloy – ‘Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on Population”’ (09.08.2009) link: http://www.victorianweb.org/economics/essay.html

Gasasira, Sweden – ‘When Mwenda goofed with $200,000 cheque stolen from poor Rwandans in defence of Kagame dictatorship’ (11.01.2013) link: http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7465&lang=en

Probe International – ‘Rewarding corruption: World Bank gives more money to corruption-riddled Uganda’ (14.10.2010) Link: http://journal.probeinternational.org/2010/10/14/rewarding-corruption-world-bank-gives-more-money-to-corruption-riddled-uganda/