South Sudan: Proposal of the Entebbe Meeting (07.07.2018)

IGAD Executive Secretary Amb. Mahboub Maalim letter to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, commending him on his leadership towards the normalization of Ethiopia- Eritrea relations (08.07.2018)

South Sudan: The Entebbe Meeting yesterday, did nothing official transpired? – No Official Communique!

I wonder what really came out of the Entebbe State House meeting between President Salva Kiir Mayardit, SPLM-IO Chairman Dr. Riek Machar, Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni yesterday.

Why I wonder? There a no communique, no report or nothing official signed by the gentlemen who had photo-ops and more possible PR stunts from the State House. Because, there has been recently one Khartoum Declaration on the 27th June 2018 between these gentlemen and also the ‘Agreement on Outstanding Issues of Responsibility Sharing’ from the 5th July 2018, also from Khartoum. Not to forget the 25th June 2018 ‘Points of Framework Agreement’, which was also signed. They we’re built on the same premise and continues the pathway of the IGAD and stakeholders to find a middle-ground for ceasing of fire between them. That as well, as the need for peace to resume the production of petroleum. Certainly, by all of this the Republic of Sudan is getting a higher stake and more control of the oil-rich fields of South Sudan. Which is weird, as the independence was supposed to get control of that from Khartoum. That is why the whole month of smiles and holding hands seems strange from the points of independence, but also how to be sovereign from Khartoum for the Juba Administration.

Maybe, that is the reason for nothing coming from the continuation of dialogue between the parties, between the rebels and the government. They have all been together, followed the High-Level Revitalized Forum (HLRF) Negotiations, which was based by the IGAD and trying to figure out how to get relief and find ways to bring life back to the ‘Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan’ agreed upon in 17th August 2015. This agreement and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), haven’t brought stability and just made sure the War-Lords has gone back to the fields shooting at each other, instead of finding reasonable ways of governing.

That is why the new meetings and the new dialogue is healthy for these leaders, however, you should be skeptical for the timing and the reason. As Sudan is flat-broke and has had both price-hikes and bread-strikes, while South Sudan is tinkering on rising inflation, combined with empty state-coffers. They both does this to get political goodwill and hopefully get new funds to eat. That is what it seems like, also making sure the war-lords can reload before finding time to blast the heads of their enemies. The hardships and these men have usually waited for their enemies to slip, before find new ways of trying to get rid of them.

It is nice that they have all these deals between the last few weeks, but the reality is that there are some underlining concern. It is still just on paper and not in the field. There have already been violations from the armies and militias. There have already been more casualties since the cease-fire of 31st June, into the 1st July 2018.

I am just awaiting it blow, when Kiir or Machar lose face, when one of them find out how the Sudan are using them as pawns to get control of the petroleum industry. Without even taking the territory, he has already gotten the golden egg without producing gold. The Khartoum government should be joyful, they have gotten a bargain and the Juba are being outplayed by their own will to fight each other for supremacy, instead of building a Republic.

Therefore, I am hopeful, but not naive. There are usually something underlining this sort of activity, especially from men like these. These men want power and control, they are not the types willing to give way. They are doing it because they have too or if they are doing it get more donor funds. Certainly, they would not challenge their own role or space without getting a cut.

I don’t believe that, do you?

Peace.

Ethiopia-Eritrea: PM Abiy talks with President Afwerki in Asmara – One step in the right direction!

Today, is a historical day, in the terms that the Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali visited the Eritrean capital Asmara and had talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The last time an Ethiopian delegation was in Asmara must have been before the 2 year between the parties that lasted from May 6th 1998 ended on the 12th December 2000. There been skirmishes and smaller firing between the nations on the borders. As the state hasn’t been as friendly and even had interests of securing a friendship.

Therefore, that the Eritrean delegation was in Addis Ababa in June 2018, was already a show of a new direction, as well as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defense Force (EPRDF) was talking about respecting the Algiers Agreement in regards of Eritrea. That has already shown positive directions, as the annexed land and the questionable boarder areas. Would go to their rightful owners and to the ones that has fought bravely for that land.

For now that is just dreams for the Horn of Africa, however, just the pictures of the Ethiopian PM together with the Eritrean President is a good look. Though, this is just the beginning. We should not jump the gun and think this is the end, there will be more twists and turns. As the uncertainty of what the Ethiopian leadership wants, if the Council of Ministers and the Parliament will enact to deliver back Badme and the questionable land back to Eritrea. If both parties will demilitarize this zone, to show as token of peace. Than, we are talking of a real progress between the nations.

That sort of act will not be over just sharing a few cups of tea and enjoy joyful celebration in the streets of Asmara. There needs more dialogue and negotiations, even if the Eritrean has told their stance. However, the Ethiopian also want their bargain. Who knows what that will be and what the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) want, as they would loose the land they started fighting over for over 20 years ago.

These talks today might be positive, the gesture of the PM to travel and meet the President is grand step for normalization of the nations, but until there is respect and works combined towards peace. There is uncertainty, as the military is still on stand-by on both sides.

It is a special occasion today, but I will not celebrate or be to joyful, until real progress is signed and respected by both parties. The PM still have to walk sideways with the TPLF. Who knows how they will react or let this play out. Because I cannot trust the TPLF or their ways, I am also skeptic about Afwerki, as his government is controlled by him and his tyranny. It is not like Eritrea is a peaceful utopia. Than, this would have made sense from the get-go and that the Ethiopian government was a fruitful democracy, which it is not.

There are many hurdles for both parties, but this is a good token of good faith and trying to establish need channels of communications and ways out of a stalemate between the parties. However, the narrow escape isn’t there yet.

But by the ways things are moving, it might be there in the near and not to distant future. Peace.

CEPO Statement: Kampala South Sudan Face-to-Face meeting (07.07.2018)

South Sudan: Agreement On Outstanding Issues of Security Arrangements (06.07.2018)

Statement by UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta H. Fore on fatal shooting of aid worker in South Sudan (05.07.2018)

NEW YORK/JUBA, 5 July 2018 – “We are deeply saddened to confirm that one aid worker was killed yesterday when a UNICEF convoy came under fire by unknown assailants.

“The convoy was carrying education supplies and was travelling on the Juba-Bor road. It was clearly marked ‘UNICEF’.

“Our deepest sympathies go out to the family of the deceased.  His death brings to 107 the number of aid workers killed since the conflict began in 2013.

“I strongly condemn this senseless assault directed against civilians working to deliver humanitarian supplies to those in need. Aid workers must be allowed to carry out their work without fear of violence and with unhindered access to those most in need.”

South Sudan: Transitional Constitution of South Sudan, 2011 (as Amended) Bill, 2018 (29.06.2018)

South Sudan: Agreement on Outstanding Issues of Responsibility Sharing (05.07.2018)

 

 

Sudan & South Sudan – Joint Communique (26.06.2018)