Drought in the Horn of Africa: New Analyses Flag Mounting Risks, Need to Support Rural Families (11.02.2022)

A drought picture from a previous drought in Somalia (sometime in 2016)

FAO senior officials visit affected areas in the rush to save lives and livelihoods.

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 11, 2022 – An extended, multi-season drought is driving acute food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, with 12 to 14 million people now at risk as crops continue to wither and animals weaken, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and partners warned today.

Resource-based conflicts are escalating as competition for water and pasturelands increases, and malnutrition rates are rising in affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, highlighting the need to sustain the rural livelihoods that underpin peace and food security across the Horn.

At a briefing to international donors in Nairobi, FAO and its partners reported that the food security outlook in the region will be highly dependent on the performance of the upcoming rainy season, with forecasts currently uncertain.

In a worst-case scenario in which the rains completely fail and agricultural-dependent communities do not receive adequate support, the number of highly food insecure people could climb to 15-20 million – with some worst-affected households facing “catastrophic” hunger conditions.

“Drought cycles are intensifying and occurring with greater frequency. Immediate humanitarian action to support farmers and herders is needed now,” said Bechdol, after visiting Kenyan communities where goats and cows are dying from lack of water and pasture. “The international community has a narrow window to prevent a major humanitarian catastrophe here,” she said.

“Alarm bells have already been rung – scaled-up action is needed now,” said Phiri. “FAO carried out anticipatory actions during the latter half of 2021 in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia to mitigate the impacts of drought on over one million rural people and so far a crisis has been mitigated. But much more is needed as the situation deteriorates and as crisis looms,” he said.

A plan to help rural families cope 

Under FAO’s new Horn of Africa Drought Response Plan, $130 million is urgently needed to provide time-critical assistance to highly vulnerable communities in drought-hit regions of the three countries. The plan supports the production of up to 90 million litres of milk and up to 40 000 tonnes of staple food crops in the first part of 2022, putting over one million highly-food insecure people on a safe footing.

For pastoralist families, FAO aims to deliver animal feed and nutritional supplements, provide mobile veterinary health clinics, transport 10 000 litre collapsible water reservoirs to remote areas, and upgrade existing wells to run on solar power.

For farming families, FAO aims to distribute drought-tolerant early-maturing varieties of sorghum, maize, cowpea and other beans and vegetables.

FAO is also carrying out cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes to ensure the most vulnerable can access food.

Additional new analysis published on Thursday from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) for Somalia, hosted by FAO, shows that in Somalia alone, the number of acutely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3 and 4) is expected to increase from 3.5 to 4.1 million between January and March 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not received on time.

FAO’s Deputy Director-General, Beth Bechdol; Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, David Phiri; and Director of Emergencies and Resilience, Rein Paulsen have just completed a visit to Kenya to raise awareness on the drought and see FAO’s vital response in action, including in Isiolo and Marsabit counties in the north.

IGAD and FAO Call for Urgent Actions to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought Across the Horn of Africa (18.11.2021)

A joint statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary, Dr Workneh Gebeyehu and the FAO Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, Dr Chimimba David Phiri.

NAIROBI, Kenya, November 18, 2021 – Vulnerable communities in the IGAD region continue to experience a complex mix of re-enforcing shocks and stresses that are eroding their resilience to food and nutrition insecurity. As of October 2021, 26 million people were already facing high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+), according to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), which is co-chaired by the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Due to the threat of worsening drought conditions, food insecurity will likely rise during the first half of 2022 across the Horn of Africa. Urgent action is therefore required now to safeguard livelihoods, save lives, and prevent possible starvation in some areas.

Drought conditions are already affecting the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and Belg-receiving areas of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia as consecutive poor rainfall seasons have driven below-average crop production, rising cereal prices, poor rangeland conditions, reduced livestock production, and drought-related  animal deaths in many areas.

Moreover, as forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the start of the current October-December 2021 rainy season has been significantly delayed, with little to no rainfall observed to date in many areas, raising the probability of another poor season. Should this occur, agricultural and pastoral conditions will further deteriorate, causing households already struggling with the effects of multiple, concurrent hazards (climate variability, conflict, COVID-19, and desert locusts) to employ negative coping strategies and reduce their food consumption. This is a major source of concern as food insecurity in the region has historically increased sharply following consecutive poor rainfall seasons.

IGAD Member States continue to work in collaboration with development partners to anticipate and respond to various food security threats and build the resilience of vulnerable communities to recurrent threats and crises. During the desert locust upsurge, for example, the unparalleled support of resource partners and multi-agency coordination averted USD 1.3 billion worth of cereal losses, meeting the cereal requirements of 29.1 million people. Desert locust livelihood recovery support continues for more than 200 000 households.

IGAD and FAO share a long-standing history of successful partnership and collaboration in building the region’s resilience in several areas, including but not limited to: livelihood support to strengthen resilience against droughts; food security information and analysis; early warning and disaster risk management; implementation of cross border actions in close collaboration with the respective communities, local and national authorities; conflict prevention; natural resource management; market access and trade; and capacity building; institutional strengthening and coordination through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI).

Such resilience-building efforts have significantly improved the ability of households to withstand the impacts of shocks. However, the increased frequency of climatic hazards, combined with the effects of other stressors, is threatening these hard-won gains. It is, therefore, crucial to act now to protect these resilience gains and prevent more people from sliding into food insecurity and malnutrition.

To this end, we must support farmers and herders who are experiencing the impacts of poor harvests, depleted food and animal feedstock, and rising food and water prices. More specifically, IGAD and FAO call for a scale-up of contributions to existing and future Humanitarian Response Plans (HRPs) as the response remains grossly underfunded in the relevant countries. Through rapid, collaborative action by all actors, we can safeguard the lives and livelihoods of communities currently bearing the worsening effects of the drought, while at the same time, protecting households’ longer-term resilience.