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WASHINGTON D.C., United States of America, June 7, 2018 – This is a guest post by Jim Sanders, a career, now retired, West Africa watcher for various federal agencies. The views expressed below are his personal views and do not reflect those of his former employers.
Returning from an early autumn vacation in Acadia National Park last year, we exited I-95 near Waterville, Maine to grab a Starbucks coffee at a nearby mall. Seeking a second opinion on my theory that the Subaru station-wagon was the state car of Maine, I approached a total stranger who was climbing out of his Toyota Prius. After affirming that, in fact, he had owned one himself, the man identified himself as Dr. David Austin, a local physician. He also mentioned his upcoming tour in Djibouti, as a Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontiers, or MSF) physician, and explained that he had previously served in Sudan (Darfur) and Congo.
Having recently returned from the four-month tour with MSF in Djibouti, Dr. Austin was eager to speak about his experiences there. He worked in a tent hospital in the capital, which focused on treating malnourished children. Mortality is particularly high in that segment of the population. (In Djibouti, MSF expected a large refugee influx, but the flow of refugees into Djibouti failed to materialize, and so it developed a program specifically for malnourished children.)
The government of Djibouti had borrowed substantially from the World Bank to create a Center of Excellence facility, intended to address the problem of child malnourishment, but while the structure was built, it did not become operational. MSF, whose mission centers on providing aid in emergencies, eventually began to close down their tent hospital. A handover to another institution never occurred, yet every month, Dr. Austin said, more kids appeared needing treatment. “On paper,” he said, “the government treats malnourished children, but in reality many children do not get treated.”
Yet, as in his other African assignments, Dr. Austin felt buoyed by the people themselves, having previously remarked that, “There is a strong spirit of joyfulness in many Africans that I consider priceless.” Djibouti’s slums are worse than India’s, he explained, where the poor hammer out tin cans and make nice shacks, and sweep the areas around them to keep them clean. In Djibouti, in contrast, the poor live in rag tents, amidst a sea of garbage. “If your child dies, MSF will provide you a ride home, with your dead child,” Austin explained. “I went with one family [to take their deceased child home], driving forever through slums, until we reached a shack in the middle of nowhere.”
But despite their circumstances, the people are “lovely, eager to talk, and full of energy.” “There’s a lot going on,” he noted. Not least, a mini-Arab Spring, which has prompted a heavy-handed government reaction.

“The most fundamental problem is not that we don’t have a system to run but those with knowledge are cynically manipulating the system for petty personal desires.” – Nilantha Ilangamuwa
The late Meles Zenawi, wrote a small 5 Point Plan in 2004, which he delivered to in a letter to the United Nations. This back dates to 25th November 2004. Since yesterday, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) was talking again about respecting the Algiers Agreement of 2000. Which states that certain colonial boarders should be respected and meaning that Ethiopia should pull back their forces from the contested territories.
But if the Council of Ministers, the Executive Committee of the EPRDF are serious about the news of respecting and following the Algiers Agreement. That means movement of troops and stop the time of certain annex land, which Eritrea claims as theirs.
However, to that smooth after all the transgressions, prolonged skirmishes and distrust between the brother-lands, the Eritrean and Ethiopian counterparts could maybe use some of the wise words of Zenawi. Who made a formula, that could be useful today. It is 14 years since he wrote it and sent his preposition to the UN. Still, the words can still carry its weight.
“Has hereby adopted the following five-point peace proposal.
1. Resolve the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea only and only through peaceful means.
2. Resolve the root causes of the conflict through dialogue with the view to normalizing relations between the two countries.
3. Ethiopia accepts, in principle, the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission decision.
4. Ethiopia agrees to pay its dues to the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission and to appoint field liaison officers.
5. Start dialogue immediately with the view to implementing the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission’s decision in a manner consistent with the promotion of sustainable peace and brotherly ties between the two peoples” (Meles Zenawi, 24.11.2004).
This here would put them all at the table and be sincere, as a closure of the pro-longed conflict. The long standing issues between the nations. That would be healthy, as the state would resolve the matter in a peaceful manner and conduct it with some finesse. No one loses with sort arrangement. It will would be helpful, as the distrust between them are there. Both parties has reasons for it, as ever since the agreement and agreed boundaries. Both parties has taken to arms now and then. That is why the ideas of Zenawi might make sense. So that the nations can settle it and actually respect each.
That is needed, especially if this isn’t another PR Stunt from the EPRDF. Then they need to take the positive steps and show signs of improvement. Also, actually talk with the Eritrean counterparts. If not, this is all just a mess. To try to gain sympathy for a positive cause. That would be really disgraceful. Peace.

Sometimes, just sometimes you wonder what is going and why, why is this happening and what is their reasons for doing so. Now the Ethiopian Revolutionary People’s Defence Force (EPRDF) are planning to build a navy. That means warships, submarines and docks, which can have these boats. If this Lake Tana or the Blue Nile or if they planning to be stationed in either Djibouti or Somalia. Who knows, but they are not having that many options. Since, they are landlocked.
This is coming, the day after Council of Ministers accept the start to draft to lift the State of Emergency. This is happening as the Chinese is winding down their investments as the debt is growing and lack of foreign exchange. You can wonder why they want to invest in that now and for what reason?
Because, you don’t extend your reach and your military, either on land, in the air or at sea. Unless, you having a plan or any ideas of usage. If they are doing this to secure the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), if they are planning to have boats on the boarders to Sudan on the Blue Nile. Because that would make sense, but they could just order Long Range Missiles and Anti-Aircraft Guns, if they we’re afraid and station them there. A navy there doesn’t make sense in that regard.
I just wonder what is the use, unless, they want supremacy all over the Horn of Africa. If the Ethiopians want a giant military and navy, to secure power over Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. That they want to be the kingpins in the area. Because that is the only thing that makes sense. If they does this, will they work together with UNSOM and fight piracy in and around the coast of Somalia? What else are they supposed to do?
It is not like they got a coastline, they don’t have fisheries and foreign troops landing on their coast to get into Ethiopia and invade it. You have either an army and navy for defense or attack. They could be a standby force, a standby navy, but why spend fortunes on warships, on submarines and other naval boats that are there for one reason. You don’t get military boats to go fishing, neither to do research or even something needed at sea.
Warships is to stop enemy from getting to shore, to secure the harbors and the coasts from enemy forces. You don’t have a navy to have funky ships at port and YMCA discos. If so, then the Ethiopian government can take an expedition to San Francisco and see the sights.
I look forward to hear the reasoning for a landlocked country investing in a navy, unless their securing the GERD. That is the defensive military thing, that would make sense, unless they are annexing other coastal lines close by their borders.
What else will these vessels do?
I do not have the answers, but asking questions, that should be within reason, as it is foolish not ask this. I would do the same thing with any landlocked country. When you don’t have a coastline, when you don’t have a border to the ocean. What need do you have of a navy?
Unless, you plan to annex coastal border land with both soldiers, tanks and warships. Peace.

“When one with honeyed words but evil mind
Persuades the mob, great woes befall the state.” – Euripides
As things are standing in Ethiopia there are minor changes in the ways it is perceived, this mostly because of how the new Prime Minister is carrying himself. This being Dr. Abiy Ahmed whose been all around and visiting all parts of the Republic. However, there been continued oppression, detaining and killings during his tenure in the regions where the State of Emergency has hit the hardest. This being in Oromia, Somalia Region and Amhara. All of these areas has been hit hard by the State of Emergency, where the police and military, the Aghazi Squad has attacked civilians and killed too.
“Addis Ababa, June 2, 2018 (FBC) – The Council of Ministers in its today’s regular meeting approved a draft law that lifts the State of Emergency. The draft will be sent to the House of People’s Representatives (HPR) for consideration. The Council noted that law and order has been restored. Ethiopia declared a six-month State of Emergency on February 16, 2018” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘Council of Ministers approves draft bill to lift State of Emergency’ 02.06.2018).
Therefore I am reluctant about this move, as long as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) is in power and using their methods. I wonder what is their safeguard and their next move, as they have done everything they can to silence dissidents. This being silencing phone-lines, blocking internet, stopping people from having sit-down strikes and generally banning all possible protests. While making activists, writers and everyone involved in these matters into criminals. Even as they fight for liberty and justice over their own. The EPRDF comes with the military as a hostile takeover and takes control. Instead of being in dialogue. That is what the State of Emergency and the provisions of the Commando Post is all about.
There is no reflection or anything saying that they will really change, the SOE now was really to stall for time. The demonstrations and the protest spirit is not gone, there are still lingering thousands upon thousands in jail. Even as high-profiled individuals has been released. The majority is still behind bars and the lack of freedom is still there. The New PM hasn’t changed that or the laws, not tried to repeal the Anti-Terror laws, which has used to oppress civilians who protest against the EPRDF.
We can hope for change, but its still lots of the same. The powers are within the same structures, a small change in the cabinet, but the reality is that Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is still controlling the EPRDF. The government and its institution isn’t significantly changed, even as the Prime Minister has been in talks with Oromo Opposition leaders. That is positive step, just as the possible repeal of the SOE. However, as long as no one takes responsibility of the violence, the killings and the arbitrary arrests, there will not be real changes. It will just be patches on the hurt, but when the wounds are evident. The flair and the flames will start again, because no one acted upon the hurt. That should be the vision of the EPRDF, to take responsibility and charge itself. If they are real about the damage and hurt it has given over the years. Not just walk away because your in power.
Who knows if they within a months time repeal the SOE, will they do it again if the Queerro are starting to block the roads and stop businesses from moving goods from Djibouti to Addis. Will the army and the police accept that? As the TPLF and EPRDF will lose foreign exchange on it and also possible profits from doing so. Will they accept that the Amhara are also closing the roads into the capital. Would they accept it, as they are not listened to or even considered. As long as the government are caring about themselves. That is the reality.
This is a positive step, but if it is not followed up by more heartfelt measures, the reality will hit the fan and the possible violence will appear, because the government haven’t shown another side or character. Peace.





