SPLM-IO: Talking Notes in the Teleconference with the UN Security Council on the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (31.05.2017)

Two Problems with SGR: First the Cost of Phase 1 and President Kenyatta cowardly blocking of Gov. Joho!

President Uhuru Kenyatta is a coward for not letting the Governor of Mombasa County, the Orange Democratic Movement leader Hassan Ali Joho attend the launch today of the Freight Train at the Port Reitz Station in Mombasa. It seems the Jubilee Party cannot handle opposition and has to freeze them out. Even as the launch of the SGR was happening, the Police escorted him away.

Maybe because the Chinese wrote this about the Kenyan Railway:

Kiraithe added that the government, through the ministries of finance, transport and environment, hasbeen heavily involved in accelerating the completion of the SGR built by the China Road and Bridge Corporation.“But the infrastructure is for Kenyans and has been achieved to improve our living standards,” Kiraithe said. In 2013, President Xi Jinping and his Kenyan counterpart, Kenyatta, witnessed the signing of the memorandum of understanding on financing the Mombasa-Nairobi SGR. The Export Import Bank of China financed 80 percent of the project” (Morangi, 2017).

“I was among a group of people who wrote a letter to the president [Uhuru Kenyatta], specifically with regards to the value for money proposition,” political analyst Tom Mboya told RFI on Tuesday. At a staggering cost of nearly four billion euros–almost entirely funded by China’s Export Import bank– just for the first phase linking the capital Nairobi to the port city Mombasa, there is reason to be concerned, reckons economist Aly-Khan Satchu” (Okello, 2017).

The Presidency statement on it:

President Kenyatta, who was flanked by Deputy President William Ruto and First Lady Margaret Kenyatta, said every Kenyan should be proud of the Standard Gauge Railway. “I call upon all Kenyans whatever their political beliefs to celebrate, today we should be together holding hands in celebrations,” said the President moments after the cargo train pulled alongside the Presidential Dias waiting for the flag off. It was song and dance as choirs played patriotic songs apt for the moment. “This is the Kenya we seek and this is the Kenya we want our children to inherit from us and their children to inherit from them,” said President Kenyatta amid applause, cheers and ululation. President Kenyatta said the SGR will make the port of Mombasa more efficient and will enhance the performance of the facility where the Jubilee Government has invested more than Sh60 billion in the last four years” (Presidency, 2017).

By the Statement made by the Presidency yesterday means that the Government spent: 60bn times 4 Shs. 240bn on the Standard Gauge Railway. Still, the East African reported differently earlier in the month: “So far, Sh327 billion has been spent on the first phase of the railway between Mombasa and Nairobi and Sh150 billion on the Nairobi-Naivasha section. With a national population of about 46 million, every Kenyan is set to owe China Sh18,413 in SGR debt once the deal is sealed” (…) “The SGR has been President Kenyatta’s pet project since he came to power” (Mutambo & Omondi, 2017). So if this is true, than the Presidency are dropping different numbers than the papers. Clearly the government trying to look more efficient, than what they are in reality. This should worry since most of the building of the SGR are based on development loans from the Exim Bank.

Is this why the words of and address to this from Joho is so striking:

In the light of this, we hereby demand that

1. That the government release the terms of the contract with the Chinese Exim Bank, the details of disbursement and attendant relavant information

2. The Government of Kenya release all details of the Take or Pay contract between KPA and the financiers? What is the goods threshold and the responsibility of collection of the these fees.

3. Due to conflicting reports, the government clarify in details all charges related to goods and their destinations.

4. The government clarify the method of nomination of goods for rail and the point and implementation of charges.

5. The government clarify the extinction date of the Railway Development Levy on goods and come clean on the amounts collected since.

6. The government release the terms of the port concession, all monies paid and the details of the contract

7. The the Government clarify the details of site selection of Naivasha as a dry port. The feasibility study and the project appraisal report.

8. That the government release the “Willingness to Pay” survey of the goods for meant for railway and the feasibility report of the proposed Naivasha Special Economic Zone.

9. And that the Jubilee government show us their plan for Mombasa” (Hon. Ali Hassan Joho, 31.05.2017).

By all means the Governor of Mombasa wants to know the realities of the SGR, but that is something every single Kenyan deserves as this is the pet-project of Kenyatta. Kenyatta might be proud of Phase 1, but can the government carry the price of the trains and lines. Or is this is a stunt for development?

That the Governor was blocked from the Train Station that is opened in his county, as he was blocked from the relaunch of the ferries in March 2017. Shows that the Jubilee cannot handle opposition or their eyes on their projects. They are so initiated to represent the whole community, that if the community and citizens elects opposition. Than they are not allowed to enter public displays and their launching of projects. This has now been proven twice. That the Jubilee cannot handle NASA leadership or ODM party leaders. If they could than they would have entertained and made it possible for Governor Joho to be at the state functions as he is the local elected leadership of Mombasa county. Is that hard for the President and his deputy?

But the President and his Team is cowards who cannot even have the local government leadership at the launch of SGR at the Port Reitz Station. Peace.

Reference:

Morangi, Lucie – ‘ Chinese-built SGR to improve Kenya’s global standing’ (30.05.2017) link:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-05/30/content_29548836.htm

Mutambo, Aggrey & Omondi, George – ‘Uhuru seeks Sh370bn more to extend railway to Kisumu’ (16.05.2017) link: http://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Kenya-requests-for-Sh370bn-for-SGR-third-phase/1950946-3928546-15jp48i/index.html

Okello, Christina – ‘Kenya’s ambitious new railway raises cost concerns’ (31.05.2017) link: http://en.rfi.fr/africa/20170530-kenya-4bn-railway-opens-amid-controversy-kenyatta-china

Presidency – ‘New dawn for Kenya as Standard Gauge Railway rolls out services’ (30.05.2017) link: http://www.president.go.ke/2017/05/30/new-dawn-for-kenya-as-standard-gauge-railway-rolls-out-services/

FAO and WFP special report of 26th May 2017 explains the reasons for the famine and food insecurity in South Sudan

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) have gone through the basic problems of food production and general markets for it in South Sudan. Both FAO and WFP are explaining the food insecurity and reasons why. The conflict is the important factor, but there are many other reasons as well. But when people are fleeing their small-farms from rebels and the army. In South Sudan it is also the lacking rain-fall and the insecurity have been classified as famine. But to give you a sense from the report, these quotes, which explain a dire situation. This should be taken seriously, as the reports from these United Nations Organizations are the ones following the farmers on the ground and have organized supplies of specialized seeds. Take a look!

Hyperinflation:

Hyperinflation and limited import capacity due to insecurity and shortage of foreign currency have severely impacted market functioning and the availability of food commodities. Cereal prices increased up to ten times in 2016 following the sharp devaluation of the local currency and the increasing transport costs. The number of traders and the level of their food stocks have declined sharply during the second semester of 2016, with strong reduction in food availability and variety” (FAO & WFP, P: 7, 2017).

Food Insecurity:

Food insecurity has reached new records during 2016 (67 percent of the population at harvest time, with over 14 percent severely food insecure), twice the pre-conflict levels and a marked worsening from the same time last year, when food insecurity stood at 49 percent (12 percent severely food insecure). Only one-quarter (26 percent) of the households were found to have acceptable food consumption. The coming lean period of mid-2017 will likely see food insecurity levels rise further” (FAO & WFP, P: 7, 2017).

Cereal Production:

As in previous assessments, post-harvest losses and seed use for sowing in 2017 are assumed to account for 20 percent of total production, leaving a net amount of about 826 000 tonnes available for local consumption. This result is about 10 percent below the output obtained in 2015 and slightly below the last five-year average production estimates. The decline in 2016 is essentially due to displacements of farmers and disruption of farming activities following the increased insecurity and violence since July” (FAO & WFP, P: 23, 2017).

With a projected population of about 12 million in mid-2017, the overall cereal deficit in the January-December 2017 marketing year is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes, over 30 percent above the deficit estimated for 2016” (FAO & WFP, P: 7, 2017).

The Conflict of 2017:

Conflict in 2017 – The major factor influencing the general food security situation during 2017 remains the violent conflict that started in late December 2013. Not only this has not been resolved, the intensity of the conflict increased in mid-2016 (July) and is continuing into 2017. While conflict affected mostly the Greater Upper Nile Region (states of Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei) during the initial stage of the conflict. However, this has spread out across the country and in particular spread into the major producing areas of the country, such as Western and Central Equatoria and neighbouring areas of Eastern Equatoria. Western Bahr el Ghazal has also been affected by fighting. These situations have geographically wider repercussions: disruption of farming leads to drops in national crop production, while its impacts on markets and trade routes lead to problems in the supply of staple foods to the more remote areas of the country” (FAO & WFP, P: 36, 2017).

In January 2017, 32.3 percent of the population of South Sudan (about 3.8 million people) was classified in the IPC Phases 3 (Crisis), 4 (Emergency) and 5 (Catastrophe). In the lean period of mid-2017, this proportion is likely to rise to 46.7 percent (5.5 million people). The most serious situations are in Unity State (where the population in some counties is facing famine or risk of famine) and Northern Bahr el Ghazal – over 50 percent of the population is in IPC Phases 3 to 5. The situation is expected to worsen during the lean period of 2017 (up to July)” (FAO & WFP, P: 9, 2017).

This is all worrying and the conflict edges the crisis with natural effect. From the problems with production of cereals, to hyper-inflation together with the areas where the Republic are classified as famine. All of this is combination of downward spiral no nation want to be hold-in. The Republic of South Sudan and it’s citizens are in turmoil as the farmers cannot plow their dirt and raise their seeds. All major cultivated areas got affected by the crisis and conflict, this ha by all means been reasons for the food insecurity. If people don’t see it and isn’t worried that the production area for food has been the battleground between government and rebels. So the farmers there would be in crossfire. So if these areas and states doesn’t see peace, than the production will not rise to the needed levels. That should be key importance and be needed policy by the government to make sure they are producing enough food for their population. Peace.

Reference:

FAO & WFP – ‘S P E C I A L R E P O R T – FAO/WFP CROP AND FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT MISSION TO SOUTH SUDAN’ (26.05.2017)

South Sudan: Resolution Arising from Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Mediation Meeting Held at State House Entebbe (26.05.2017)

[The Arms supplier to SPLA] President Museveni are involved in developing a work-plan for peace in South Sudan!

Entebbe State House 26. May 2017

There are something very wrong when an arms supplier of two decades like President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, are involved in the mediation and peace negotiation in South Sudan. Even if President Salva Kiir Mayardit are wanting him. They have had a longstanding relationship, which is the proof of the arms trade and helping each with armies when needed be. Therefore the impartiality with having Museveni isn’t there. Museveni will secure Kiir and his fraction as that pays him in the long-run and not necessary the best for South Sudan. Just take a look!

On the 26th May at the State House:

Chaired a meeting of three different South Sudanese factions, seeking to reunite the South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. The meeting at State House, Entebbe was attended by representatives of the SPLM in government, SPLM in opposition and former detainees. This followed a request by His Excellency Salva Kiir that I help in the mediation process. The meeting agreed to establish a working committee that will develop a workplan on implementation of the Arusha Accord, end the war and plan for peace. The meeting tasked as me as mediator, and new chair of the East African Community to determine time and venue for the next meeting, which I will do” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 26.05.2017).

The relationship between Museveni and the conflict in South Sudan, can go back in to old libraries like the report from the Independent paper in the United Kingdom:

The Nigerian-owned Boeing cargo plane was forced to land at Larnaca on Tuesday during a flight from from Tel Aviv to Entebbe in Uganda. According to the Cypriot civil aviation authorities, it was carrying weapons to Uganda. A senior Ugandan official said yesterday it was the first his government knew of the consignment, and there is speculation that the weapons may be destined for the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, struggling for survival in southern Sudan” (…) “The Sudanese government seems to regard Uganda as a supplier of the SPLA. Reliable sources in the area say Khartoum has been supplying dissidents elements in Uganda who have mounted random attacks near Sudanese refugee camps in northern Uganda” (Dowden, 1994). So Museveni has supplied the SPLA weapons for over 20 years and the recent reports show similar activity with Ukraine plane and pilot, instead of being a Nigerian one like the old report. Therefore, with the history of supplying weapons and ammunition to the SPLA. There isn’t like Museveni has chosen side in the conflict. The National Dialogue, which isn’t allowing Dr. Riek Machar and therefore excluding the real SPLM-IO, as well as the newly forged rebel-groups. Which is either dissidents of the SPLM-IO or the SPLM/A in the recent year.

So with the sanctions of who is taking part of the National Dialogue, it will not be sincere, since all of the parties are not involved. The rebels and their leaders are not in communication with the government. Therefore, President Kiir has an ally in the negotiation instead of mediator without any inside agreements. That means that President Museveni will be on the side of Kiir and not on a genuine peace-talks.

Like the interview of SMC in mid-May:

Q. What about IGAD efforts now in South Sudan?

A. For the South Sudan crisis the IGAD was also supported by the international community. In fact the agreement is ‘IGAD-plus agreement’. The IGAD on the one hand and on the other hand, the members of the international community including the TROIKA and a number of other countries were involved in bringing the government of South Sudan and the SPLA together in agreement. So on the ground there is an extensive understanding and cooperation between the IGAD and the international community” (SMC, 2017).

So even if it is a ceasefire now, the attacks and skirmishes still happens in different states. The situation is still dire and my faith in the National Dialogue isn’t there. As the IGAD-Plus Agreement haven’t been respected, by neither party. As the turmoil and crisis is in the matter of the current leadership. Both from the rebels and also from the central government.

With all this in mind, what will be President Museveni motives to make a work-plan for the mediation and implementation of the Arusha Accord. Will it be to generate a real peace or for the help of his friend in troubling time. With the knowledge of the connection between Ugandan Army and the SPLA, Museveni is more important to keep Kiir as an ally, than generate a real peace. The National Dialogue is flawed and it doesn’t help that you have a partial motivated leader like Museveni helping out. It is not to give the mediation any credibility. Since the weapon-brother and the ammunition supplier of the SPLA would not be sincere in wishing peace. He has made sure that President Kiir could battle his enemies and had enough bullets to silence them.

I never had faith in Museveni to deal with this, might the rest of the world do, but then they are naive and not thinking of the implications of selling guns and than discussing peace afterwards. It doesn’t seem to be real and fit. Like a beer producers are promoting careful drinking is insincere as they are in the business of trading the brew and not safety. Peace.

Reference:

Dowden, Richard – ‘Israeli weapons ‘bound for rebels’ in southern Sudan: Arms may be destined for SPLA fight against Khartoum’ (19.03.2017) link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/israeli-weapons-bound-for-rebels-in-southern-sudan-arms-may-be-destined-for-spla-fight-against-1430077.html

The Sudanese Media Center (SMC) – ‘Interview: IGAD Special Envoy in Khartoum Lissane Yohannes’ (15.05.2017) link: http://smc.sd/en/interview-igad-special-envoy-khartoum-lissane-yohannes/

South Sudan: ‘Fighting must stop now’ so millions can be spared from famine, say UN agency chiefs (25.05.2017)

José Graziano da Silva, head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP’s David Beasley made the call during a visit to the former Unity state, one of the areas in South Sudan worst hit by the current hunger crisis.

WASHINGTON D.C., United States of America, May 25, 2017 –  Despite “appalling conditions” in South Sudan, it is not too late to save more people from dying, the head of the United Nations agriculture agency said today, joining the World Food Programme (WFP) chief in a call to all parties enmeshed in the country’s conflict to end the violence and work together to ensure access to food and other life-saving support.

José Graziano da Silva, head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP’s David Beasley made the call during a visit to the former Unity state, one of the areas in South Sudan worst hit by the current hunger crisis.

“We can still avoid a worsening of the disaster, but the fighting has to stop now,” Mr. Graziano da Silva said. “There can be no progress without peace. People must be given immediate access to food, and farmers need to be allowed to work on their fields and tend to their livestock,” he added.

Around 5.5 million people in South Sudan, or almost half the population, face severe hunger ahead of the lean season, which peaks in July. Of these, more than 90,000 face starvation with famine declared in parts of former Unity state while another one million teeter on the brink. The UN stresses that this unprecedented situation reflects the impact of ongoing strife, obstacles to delivering humanitarian assistance and declining agricultural production.

Both UN officials stressed that an immediate, massive response is critical, combining emergency food assistance and support for agriculture, livestock and fisheries.

‘The fighting must end’ so investment in children can begin, WFP’s Beasley

In the former Unity state, they visited people coping with the hunger crisis with the support of both agencies and met with people facing famine on Kok Island, a refuge in the Nile River where many people have sought shelter from fighting.

The two agency heads saw aid workers from international and local partner organizations distributing WFP food and nutrition treatments, as well as seeds and FAO fishing kits.

“Food, treatment for malnourished kids, kits that help people fish and grow vegetables – these are the difference between life and death for people we met in Unity state,” Mr. Beasley said. “But we can’t keep scaling up forever. The fighting has to end to make the kind of investments that give the children of South Sudan any hope for the future they deserve.”

‘Saving livelihoods saves lives,’ says FAO’s Graziano da Silva

The two UN agency heads visited an FAO project aiming to provide women farmers and pastoralists with a place to process milk. With rising malnutrition levels across the country, the project is an innovative way to increase the availability of safe, quality milk and milk products – a major dietary staple and a source of protein vitamins and minerals, essential components for a healthy diet.

Mr. Graziano da Silva highlighted that saving livelihoods also saves lives, saying “South Sudan has great potential – it has land, water and courageous people. If it also has peace, then together we can work to end hunger.”

Both agency heads underscored the need for further international support to confront a $182 million funding gap over the next six months.

Mr. Beasley assured that while WFP would continue to stand by the South Sudanese, its leaders “must show good faith by facilitating humanitarian efforts, including getting rid of unnecessary fees and procedures that delay and hinder aid.”

Kenya: Press Release on the Cholera Outbreak in the Country (24.05.2017)

CEPO: South Sudan and Sudan have six-month to resolve Abyei dispute – UN (20.05.2017)

South Sudan: Agreement on Cessation of Hostilities between the Youth of Dinka Bor and Murle Communities (23.05.2017)

SPLM-IO: On the One-Sided National Dialogue and Ceasefire of President Salva Kiir and his allies (22.05.2017)