Opinion: The new arms sanctions on South Sudan will it matter?

I wish I didn’t had to write this piece, because of the constant warfare and civil-war that lasted and lasted. That the Government of South Sudan, Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement In-Government (SPLA/M-IG) with President Salva Kiir Mayardiit and his loyal people around him. There is also the main opposition from Dr. Riek Machar of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement – In Opposition (SPLM-IO) from there more and more people have deflected over the recent times. It is hard to keep count in all the rebellious groups. National Salvation Front (NAS) former SPLM-IO Lieutenant General Thomas Cirillo Swaka. As well as Dr. Lam Akol has founded National Democratic Movement (NDM). This is just the beginning and the list could go on. So the situation as the spark after peace agreement of 2015 is different. Because, there isn’t just two direct partners now. There is a bunch and one main government Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), who kind of lost meaning when the shooting in Juba happen and Machar has fled.

Though now that suddenly after all this time, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) and United Nation’s Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) isn’t creating the levels of trust. This combined with the other monitoring missions like Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Committee (JMEC) is making the situation more fluid. While the politics are still controlled by tight little group around the President Kiir. The ones loyal to him get the perks and write his decree’s. Not like the started Parliament with the TGoNU of the peace-agreement has made any changes. Especially after First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng Gai took the place in his part of SPLM-IO, therefore, it is two of those and you can wonder how real that organization under Deng Gai is. Since he has been controversial from the get-go.

With all this mine, with armed groups and state sanctioned violence not respecting agreements, are creating a continued insurgency and fleeing civilians. While all of this is destroying possible peace and institutions, as long as it is like this, it is the war-lords leading and not the ones building up state structures.

Therefore, that the European Union sanctions on three persons should be seen as good. These individuals are Gen Paul Malong, who has been thrown out of government and been under house arrest. He has his following, but also his enemies after how he did his affairs. Therefore, weird that they are sanctioning him when he is out of government and not when he was in it and using military force against the ones who stood in the way of Kiir. Then you have one in the government, Michael Makuei Leuth for his role in obstructing IGAD process and violations against human rights. Then the Inspector General of the Army Malek Reuben Riak, who is in-charge of buying weapons. Therefore, that sanction makes sense. But I’m puzzled by the time of sanctioning Malong. That should have been done in 2016 or early 2017. Not now in 2018, when his role is more meaningless, unless they are sanctioning him for his past.

The United States are doing this: “Specifically, the Department of State will amend the International Traffic in Arms Regulations to update the defense trade policy toward South Sudan by application of a policy of denial, with limited exceptions, on the export of defense articles and defense services to South Sudan, including all parties involved in the conflict” (Heather Nauert – ‘U.S. Arms Restrictions on South Sudan’ 02.02.2018).

So the United States are more reacting and promising more amending the previous Executive Order then of 2014. Since, the initial changes is not in the direct statement. We cannot know what sort of changes in the arms trade this will have. Especially since the United States are selling weapons to partner states in the East African Region. One of them is Uganda who has had reports of helping with exporting equipment and arms to South Sudan. So if the United States and European Union wants to be serious. Then, the countries with borders to South Sudan also need to be included.

This has not been shown, but that is also because bilateral security agreements and needs for others contributions on the continent. That is why the US hasn’t broken their peace and arms trade with either Kenya or Uganda. They are both involved in conflicts and parts of Blue Helmet operations in Somalia and Central African Republic. That is also a reason for the special arms trade. We can wonder if this will be persistence.

I doubt that the efforts and arms embargo, the sanctions of arms to South Sudan will have much effect. Since the armed groups will get through their channels and cross the borders into Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ugandan and even Kenya to get their supply. That means also if the Sudanese government in Khartoum still opportunity to create havoc, they can support as well. They are already hated in the West and has nothing to lose to trade to some of the newly created military outfits who fights to get rid of Kiir. This should not be shocking, it should be no news. Just like if the Uganda People’s Defense Force suddenly arrived back, even with no agreement with IGAD, UN or AU. Just showed up because Kiir called his friend in Entebbe. That would be plausible and possible, since both parties has done it before. The oil coins given by South Sudan has been positive to the coffers of Museveni. He wouldn’t mind some more. Even if his country is hosting over a million South Sudanese refugees by December 2017. Therefore, the stakes in Uganda is high and should worry that they have contributed not only with peaceful aspects, but also military. They have strengthen the arms and equipment of the SPLA, the government army in South Sudan.

With this knowledge, why are just the sanctions always falling directly on the inner-circle of government, when they are conspiring with neighbors who gladly supply them for a dime and cookie. We should also make sure they couldn’t use merchants of death, use Lord of War sorts of methods to supply the civil war in South Sudan. Even though we do and we just accept it. The EU, US and AU haven’t addressed the third country supply, an important aspect that needs to be scrutinized. Peace.

A New KANU Arrest: This time its MP George Aladwa of Makadara and the allegations isn’t adding up!

We know now that the Jubilee government, the Ministry of Interior are looking for ways to humiliate and arrest National Super Alliance (NASA) affiliates, they do it under the pretext of CS Fred Matiangi. They are continuing doing it with people, they don’t think will shed fear of retribution. Since they picked Hon. George Aladwa, who was taken from his home during Friday night on 2nd February 2018. This is continued with the other several off political arrests as well as the Media Shutdown.

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his henchmen are not sleeping. They are calculating who to take and for what purpose. He has already on his watch taken TJ Kajwang, Miguna Miguna and now George Aladwa. Aladwa was taken to an unknown location. Just like the others, who had to found and then petition their release. Something the Police doesn’t respect, the court orders. They are just doing as they please.

However their reasoning is kind of weird:

Aladwa is accused of planning an attack on Kalonzo Musyoka’s home and masterminding the chaos in Kibera. In the January 31 attack, gunmen threw a stun hand grenade at Kalonzo’s Karen home before shooting twice in the air. Police spokesman Charles Owino, who accompanied detectives from Nairobi Area command and the Bomb and Hazadrous Disposal Unit of the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) to the scene, confirmed the attackers used a bomb usually used to scare rather than harm” (Orinde, 2018).

So now the NASA MP is accused of attacking his own, that is weird, because I remember the Police saying this as it occurred:

Addressing the media at Musyoka’s Karen residence, police spokesperson Charles Owino said after visiting the scene of crime, they recovered a live bullet and a stun grenade which he said is non-lethal” (…) “Kalonzo called our emergency line saying his home was under attack we mobilised our officers from Nairobi area and Hardy police station to visit the scene. The report we got is that two vehicles approached his home at around 1.15am. Fortunately, there were three guards from Cobra security company and their patrol car right outside his compound. Upon checking, the security officers recovered a pin for a grenade and a live bullet,” said Owino” (Muriuki, 2018).

So what I find special is that on Wednesday 31st January said it was stun grenade and a live bullet, while saying two cars passed by the compound of Kalonzo. Therefore, is Owino saying that Aladwa was throwing a stun grenade on Kalonzo’s compound? Since he was already at the Uhuru Park and actually taking part of the Swearing-In. That would be more reason for his arrest, than trying to pin a mockery of a case on their own. How to politicize an attack after, seemingly making two dots together that doesn’t make sense.

So I am surprised that they are trying to amend these to separate events, as they are trying to create havoc inside the NASA with allegations, while they have enough issues with the cowards who didn’t show up on the 30th January. But that is also another matter. Now this is just a proof that the Police and Jubilee, trying to fix their charges as they see fit. But how come they are now charging Aladwa for what happen to Kalonzo. So they are initially saying he masterminded this and got someone to throw a stun-grenade on the lawn of compound and drive away?

That sounds more like a teenager or even someone trying to make a scene, to make up for the events of not showing up somewhere else. It just had to happen hours later and after Kalonzo had audio out of losing security guards. While the Police saying there we’re security guards from a company there. Therefore, the story of Kalonzo doesn’t fit the narrative. It later doesn’t fit the first explanation from the Police and now they used a bomb, while they just found a stun-grenade. How does something go from a stun-grenade into bomb? That is evolution that Charles Darwin would be proud of, I am sure words of wisdom has to be put into the ear-holes and make sure the details fit. How a live bullet and stun-grenade become a bomb. Secondly, how suddenly a NASA MP masterminded this, is far-fetched, but that is also because this allegations that can tarnished quicker than popcorn. Just crush a few popcorn’s in your hand. The same can be done with reasoning of the Police Spokesperson Owino.

Just crush it and know the KANU party and their illegitimate acts are back, to try to silence and control the state. The Kenyatta government are now using the declaration of Matiangi to take down NASA. They are doing it piece by piece, they are also blacking out the media. So that people are only following the media that Kenyatta and Ruto owns. Such a bunch of greedy gentlemen the Jubilee, sorry KANU is. Peace.

Reference:

Muriuki, Benjamin – ‘Police statement on grenade attack at Kalonzo’s home’ (31.01.2018) link: https://citizentv.co.ke/news/police-statement-on-grenade-attack-at-kalonzos-karen-home-189692/

Orinde, Hillary – ‘Police arrest Makadara MP George Aladwa’ (03.02.2018) link: https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001268316/police-arrest-makadara-mp-george-aladwa

Opinion: Kenyatta has unleashed the modern-day KANU dictatorship!

Uhuru Kenyatta as incumbent has today again proven what his ways and his reasoning concerning anyone else. Even as the court orders for the Githeri Media channels of Citizen’s TV Kenya, KTN and NTV are still closed for broadcast. While the National Super Alliance are under hot water.

The NASA or NRM General Miguna Miguna has today been arrested and supposed free on a fee of 50,000 shillings done by lawyer Nelson Havi earlier in the day. Still he is being hold at Githunguri Police station. The famous NTV journalists are freed today after two days being inside the NTV building and no police barged the building, like they did early this morning to arrest Miguna Miguna. Clearly, there is difference between folk. So that Linus Kaikai, Larry Madowo and Ken Mijungu.

What is disappointing is that the African Union and United States are condemning Raila Odinga and NASA for their inauguration as People’s President, while just putting some remarks onto the affairs of the state. They are vindicating Odinga, while accepting the illegitimate ways of Kenyatta. Who is now using the state machinery with force against his opposition. Not Thirdway Alliance, even if Ekuru Aukot tries play like he is relevant in the battle between KANU and NASA.

Today at the Inspectors Conference, the President Kenyatta continues his assault on the media as the government defies court orders, bullied the media out expect for K24 (which the President own) and KBC Channel 1. So Uhuru attacks the journalists like Jomo did in the 1950s, when Jomo had once said:

You journalists be careful not to report what is not true. One paper recently reported that an African leader stated that there is nothing wrong with people stealing. Write what I say, not what you like!”. It seems to be running the same ideas in the mind of Uhuru. Like father like son.

All of this arrests and the fear arose after the swearing-in on the 30th January. Therefore, the results of the aftermath is the answer from Kenyatta. He wants to show his power and his reach. That the ones wanting to take his place and question his place. Will be sorted out, even if the Police haven’t taken Odinga or given him the Besigye treatment yet. However, I think that is coming. Since Miguna Miguna and TJ Kajwang has both been charged and has to answer for their crimes. That means other are soon on the radar and ready to prey for the government.

The same with the media, as this is play to weaken the NASA and NRM. Just like most of the NASA leadership has lost their security agents, while also many of them has lost their rights to bear weapons. This has created issues, but is to be expected since CS Fred Matiangi has declared them a criminal gang. Meaning, they are seen as Criminal. Therefore, it is seemingly criminals carrying guns and they can loose it. That is why Arati and Mudavadi has lost their license.

So Uhuru Kenyatta now has problem ordering the media around and only using the once he trust, which is his own. Like he trusts the police using his bidding, instead of fighting crime. The police service are preoccupied, also are the other institutions under the Ministry of Interior, who are all in alert and mode to harass and arrest NASA leaders. We can await more big-fish and more troubles. As today there we’re report that the Flying Squad was following the trail of Odinga to Karen. He arrived safe in the hotel, but that is worrying and showing the signs of what sort of state it is.

That Kenyatta would sink this low, lay the bar so low and first rig himself into power for the second time. Now assault the media and now the opposition. Aukot, isn’t the Opposition, he is the needed dumb pawn, Kenyatta needs. The Police chased away journalists and activists from the Communications Authority, who are in-charge of the media blackout. They are not following orders, so the state is clearly not following the courts themselves. So the police are really following the bidding of Kenyatta, not the constitution. That is proven by the disregard for the court orders when coming to media and also the NASA arrests.

We can wonder what will happen at the court when TJ Kajwang and Miguna Miguna will show-up in Courts for their counts of criminal activity. The same with answering the courts for the continued blackout. Even if the NTV journalists got away after 48 hours and being stuck inside the building. While the NASA politicians are hunted down like they imported a ton of cocaine. That shows the difference between family affairs and the enemies.

We are now seeing the start of a new era of KANU politics as Kenyatta are acting like his predecessors, because freedom doesn’t matter and neither does justice. That is why the Courts are disrespected and the rule of law. Only one man matter and the rules by him. Kenyatta are becoming that. His dictatorship is starting. We can just wonder how far he will push it and how much hurt he will create. Peace.

African Union: Statement of the Chairperson of the Commission on the Situation in Kenya (01.02.2018)

Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: Remarks at the launch of the 2018 South Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan and 2018 South Sudan Regional Refugee Response Plan (01.02.2018)

Kenya: Hon. Tomas Joseph Kajwang MP – Charged with Treason and Unlawful Assembly (01.02.2018)

African Union Open-Ended Committee of Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the International Criminal Court Convened its 6th Meeting on the Sidelines of the 32nd Ordinary Session of the Executive Council of the African Union (27.01.2018)

Kenya: Firearms Licensing Board letter to Hon. Paul Simba Arati – “Re: Revocation of Firearm Certificate No. 10242” (30.01.2018)

Declaration of Ukambani Youth: We are Tired of Kalonzo Musyoka’s Betrayal (31.01.2018)

South Sudan: CEPO – “Allow Media to Cover IGAD-LED South Sudan Peace Revitalization Forum” (30.01.2018)