Somalia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation – Press Statement 03.01.2024)

Ethiopia: FDRE Governmente Communication Service – A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for Partnership and Cooperation has been signed between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Somaliland (03.01.2024)

Ethiopia: Should Ogaden (Somali Region) be returned to Somalia?

The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa begs a lot of questions. Not only about sovereignty and territorial integrity, as Mogadishu is now reacting and condemning Ethiopia’s involvement in the Federal Government of Somalia’s matters. With this regard…

Should Somalia retaliate with the rights and question the annexation of Ogaden (Somali region) and it’s position as a separate state within the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). That statehood could now be tested and within reason too. As Prime Minister Abiy have opened up a can of worms.

It is reasonable that Mogadishu asks allies to defend itself and get assurances as Ethiopia has invaded Somalia in the past. That’s why they have been able to be the big-man and be a powerful neighbour. However, right now the army of Ethiopia is stretched and more volatile, as they have fought internal conflicts in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia. Therefore, it isn’t coming from a place of strength. No, it is megalomania and we all know it.

Maybe just maybe… the Somali Region (or Ogaden) should return to Somalia as it belongs. This is a colonial reason for why it’s part of Ethiopia. There been wars fought over it and separatist movements sponsored to try to forge a way out of the Ethiopian Federation to no avail. Still, that’s why the dream of Greater Somalia exists. Because, parts of the Somalia is still bound outside it’s current borders.

That’s why Abiy should be more concerned and not dance victory. As people will look at his Republic and wonder what they can slice or dice. Since his not caring about territorial integrity or about another sovereigns interests. A neighbours sovereign interests at that. He didn’t mind violating Somalia and their territories, which is why we are here today.

This is why speculation about Ogaden becomes relevant. When you have a region especially named the Somali Region as a part of Ethiopia. Why should it even be there and for what reason? Who is it serving or for what purpose? Isn’t it natural to return it to Somalia and give them their territories back?

Well, we know the FDRE won’t accept this narrative or story, as they are the custodian of Ogaden for now. They have been so for decades and been able to stop insurgencies that has fought for its liberation. That’s why we know they will not let it go. It will not slide and be a casualty that easily. No, the rulers of Addis Ababa won’t allow that.

Abiy who wants to be King and a Supreme Leader cannot allow himself a defeat or a loss of this magnitude. That can only happen if he is cornered or taken aback, but we know that won’t happen that easily. There is little wiggle room, if any… therefore, Ogaden will most likely stay within the Federation that it’s currently in. Regardless, it is a healthy conversation and this needs to be discussed.

Especially, when Abiy did what he did and are willing to do in recognition of Somaliland. That’s why there has to be ramifications and punitive actions towards Ethiopia. It is only reasonable and people should seek remedy for his actions. That makes perfect sense…

Ogaden. Ogaden. Ogaden. The Somali Region, why is it still a part of Ethiopia and not a part of Somalia. Peace.

Somalia: Resolution by the Federal Government of Somalia Regarding Ethiopia’s Breach of Somali Sovereignty (02.01.2024)

Somaliland: Ministry of Foreign Affairs & International Cooperation – The Republic of Somaliland Government signs Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia for Seaport Access in Exchange for International Recognition (02.01.2024)

Opinion: Abiy possibly causing more conflict

The recent agreement between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa is causing issues on the Horn of Africa. As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali have not only recognized the existence of Somaliland as a Republic. It has also ensured itself the leasing of maritime territories and having an army base in Somaliland. Therefore, causing a stir and possibly ceasing diplomatic ties with Mogadishu.

President Muse Bihi Abdi have made an agreement without consulting or having a mandate from the Federal Republic of Somalia. This will now make things worse and the Memorandum of Understanding that been written can spiral things out.

Yes, the FRDE and Addis Ababa gets a stake at the sea as a landlocked nation. Regardless of that.. this is selling the goodwill it has in Somalia. They are now trading possible friendship and diplomatic relations with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). Villa Somalia and the President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud now has to engage and show their true nature.

This Memorandum just comes days after the Djibouti Communique between the parties. Where it seemed like Somaliland and Somalia had come to terms and would be cordial with each other. However, it didn’t take long before Somaliland saw themselves fit and did another agreement. That is very questionable behaviour, but understandable too.

The cost of sea access will follow Abiy. His maybe giddy today, but the ramifications will follow. There will be reactions and possible diplomatic measures taken. As the Horn of Africa fluid alliance continues to shift.

Ethiopia shouldn’t be too happy right now. As they already have favourable terms and trading agreement with Djibouti. They don’t own or have direct assets in the ports there. Nevertheless, the trading and the logistical hub of Djibouti isn’t changing over night.

Eritrea might be at ease over this, as the speculations of Massawa and Assab has been in the talks. There been rumours and words that the unification of Afar people should be on the agenda. By doing so, the Ethiopian nation should have the rights to the ports and get all the Afar people under one banner. However, that seems to be only talk and this is why it got nowhere for now.

Abiy found “peaceful” means to sign the agreement with Somaliland. However, the aftermath will be hectic. What is happening now will be costs of the operation and we don’t talk money. We talk about the price of sovereignty and the dignity between neighbours. Because, right here … this will only make things worse.

We can wonder what the outcome here will be, but this isn’t looking good. As fragile and conflicted the Ethiopian state is at the moment. It doesn’t help that it tries to cause more havoc over access to the sea. That’s what it has done here and it’s just throwing a grenade between the relations between Mogadishu and Hargeisa. While this will also destroy whatever that was between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu too.

This here is no good and a sign of power and prestige becoming the vital thing for Abiy. Abiy wants the sea so badly that his willing to destroy and deter anything with diplomatic reasons with Somalia. Somalia is within its right to react and challenge this. Somaliland can be happy as they have gotten a gold-ticket, but it might only be on paper.

Time will tell, but this will have consequences and Abiy will not possibly not like the outcome. Peace.

Djibouti: The Djibouti Communique on talks between the Federal Government of Somalia and Somalialand (29.12.2023)

Somalia: Joint Press Statement – Somalia in the midst of disaster as devastating rains and floods spread (30.11.2023)

Somalia: Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs & Reconciliation – National Civil Society and Government Institutions Cooperation Forum (24.10.2023)

Somalia: Puntland State of Somalia – Punland Humanitarian Committee for the Conflict in Laascaanood (14.06.2023)