Somalia: AMISOM – Interoffice Memorandum – Subject: In-Fighting in Mogadishu (19.02.2021)

Mogadishu on fire: Farmaajo is aiming at his “enemies”

The “expired” and “incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed aka “Farmaajo”. His term has already ended and there was mentions of talks and conference to handle the stalemate on the procedures of the up-coming elections. Now, his not accepted and legitimized by the Lower House and the Council of Presidential Candidates Union’ (CPC). Therefore, after the ceasing of his term. There was questions how things would be.

However, now we are seeing how hostile things are. There is all guns-out and Farmaajo have been close to assassinate several Presidential Candidates and two former Presidents. That is unprecedented. That he does this and usher in the violence. It is not a sign of strength. This is a sign of weakness, as he got no real popularity or prospects of a second term. As he has to ambush and block everyone else from getting elected. That is how it looks from the outside.

A man who has to grab the guns, block demonstrations and stop people from dissenting. When you have not reached or been able to fix an election. Then you know you are the losing one. All of the reports from Mogadishu this Friday is worrying. There is no light in the end of the tunnel here. Only bloodshed and macho-ism with pulling guns and intimidate.

Somalia’s government blocks main roads in Mogadishu. Special training forces were deployed all approaches to Daljirka Momentum where anti-government protests were planned to happen today” (Mowliid Haji Abdi, 19.02.2021).

Somali army reportedly attacked Maida Hotel, where former presidents Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud were staying. While the army have also attacked a procession on Airport road done by former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire, Abdirahman Abdishakur and Abdikarim Guled.

Ambulance sirens could be heard and plumes of smoke rose from the area the gunfire near Mogadishu airport, which had been continuing for at least 30 minutes” (Garowe Media, 19.02.2021).

Foreign diplomats located in Mogadishu airport are evacuating to Nairobi as the country descends into new civilstrife. Mortars landed on the airport during heavy clashes” (SomaliaNews, 19.02.2021).

UN Statement on the current

The UN in Somalia is deeply concerned by armed clashes in #Mogadishu overnight and on Friday morning, calls for calm and restraint by all parties involved, and urges that open lines of communication be maintained to help reduce tensions. The UN in Somalia notes that the clashes in Mogadishu underscore the urgent need for Federal Government and Federal Member State leaders to come together to reach political agreement on the implementation of the 17 September electoral model” (UNSOM, 19.02.2021).

All of this here is tragic. It is a travesty. This is how Farmaajo will go out. He will not go out as a noble man, but he used forces and violent tactics to change the Speaker of the Lower House too. This man used all his means to get his people in office across the Republic. So, it is not shocking that he goes to this now. That he doesn’t get his way in the up-coming elections or getting his stipulations for total control ahead of the polls. Because, it seems like he fairs his losing and that’s why rather wants things in the limbo. Hope people give way to his violence…

This is no good. It is just worrying and we can wonder where this is taking the Republic. As the leadership are willing to do this and support it. While the stalemate continues and Famaajo doesn’t back down. Something got to give, but at this point Famaajo is so invested. That his willing to let bullets fly at his enemies. We are just lucky that none of them is deceased by the live-bullets. That shouldn’t be a thing… but it is … because it is clearly the game that Villa Somalia is playing with the rest of the Nation. Peace.

Somalia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation – Press Release (27.01.2021)

Somalia: The Council of Somali Presidential Candidates (CSPC) – Statement (25.01.2021)

Somalia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation – Press Release (25.01.2021)

Kenya: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Kenya Express Concerns of renewed Fighting in Bula Hawa, Somalia (25.01.2021)

Somalia: Ministry of Information, Culture & Tourism – Press Release (19.12.2020)

Kenya-Somali Dispute: Farmaajo’s Gamble ahead of the Elections

There been diplomatic spats between Nairobi and Mogadishu before, as the ones in power have either favoured the relations or felt used. The elites in both Republic’s have usually earned coins on the relations. As the cross country trade have been swell and border districts have moved goods. Therefore, the recent escalation is worrying.

Last month it was already getting ugly, when the Kenyan Ambassador went back to Nairobi. After the Somalian government claimed the Kenyan government was interfering in their elections. President Faramaajo have been playing into this narrative and used it ahead of the up-coming elections. Since he gotten friendly with Addis Ababa. He needs a new enemy and currently that Nairobi.

They have already International Court battle over the ownership over certain sea and possible “territory” to drill oil outside their borders. That is a case that is pending and still not settled in the courts. It has been a prolonged dispute. This has however not been the issue for the current spat.

Which is based on the election in Somalia. As the President trying to show his power and his strength ahead of that. That Somalia is cutting its ties. Is now happening because the Kenyan counterparts wanted to show their force as well. They went and had a two day talks with the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi in Nairobi. Also opened up an Consulate for Somaliland in Nairobi and a Kenyan one in Haregeisa. This is in stark contrast to the views of Mogadishu. As the semi-autonomous state and declared independence on the 18th May 1991. Which haven’t been recognized by all states and multi-national organizations. As the Federal Government in Somalia (FGS) will feel these actions made is a betrayal of their sovereign interests. However, that can also be disputed and if they even have a say in Somaliland at all…

This is why this dispute between Mogadishu and Nairobi is happening. Nairobi answered to the attacks and the actions made by Mogadishu. That is why the Kenyan went and made diplomatic efforts with Hargeisa. Just to prove a point. While the Somali elite in Mogadishu and in Nairobi knows it needs Kenyan support. Their army is within their borders. The Kenyan elite is shielding and having a Somali elite in Nairobi. That is why even some Presidential Candidates are campaigning there to get the votes from important figures there. Therefore, this is a futile enterprise.

It is not like the Kenyan will back down now. The FGS in Mogadishu have even ordered for their diplomats to return home within a few days. This means they are clearly shutting down all ordinary means of communication. A neighbour nation who has worked with and is participating in the battle against Al-Shabaab and also harbour the biggest amount of Somali refugees in the Dadaab refugee camp. Therefore, the Kenyan government can make life much worse for Farmaajo, than what he can do to the ones in Nairobi.

This can only be seen as a stunt ahead of the elections. United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) should react to all of this and also IGAD. The AMISOM mission can also loose out on this. As the Kenyan are mandated and are participating in that. So, if this further escalates. The Mogadishu based politicians are playing with fire. While amping up their “sovereign” interests, which is only losing out and weakening themselves. Not like Mogadishu have some friends to call and get things fixed. Even the US is moving their soldiers from Somalia in 2021. They don’t need more weakness in their battle against the Al-Shabaab.

Farmaajo is trying to live up to the hype and show some resilience. In a manner to buy to populist believes ahead of the polls. He needs an enemy and especially an outside one. That is why Kenya is a fitting one. What he maybe didn’t think was that they would invite and entertain Bihi in Nairobi. That must have hurt his pride and therefore, ended in the late night ceasing of ties. This is the reality of it all.

Somaliland is the pawn here. The semi-autonomous state and non-recognized state, which is trying to get vouched for. Right now the importance of Kenya is huge. Especially, that Raila Odinga is speaking of recognition of it. That would spark fury in Mogadishu. This is why the separatists are vocal about it and celebrating the recent events. While Farmaajo should feel shooked. He played high, but didn’t stack his card correctly.

Right now it’s all in the hands of Farmaajo. The “Cheese” have to act now. This will have repercussions and we can wonder how he will play this one out. His the one that gone an election coming up and he got all to loose here. Somaliland and Bihi got what he wanted. Kenya have shown their moves and can easily manoeuvrer from here. It is the leadership of Mogadishu that is loosing out. Peace.

Joint AU-IGAD statement on the recent developments in Somalia (25.07.2020)

Opinion: PM Khaire impeached [and electioneering can only take you so far]

The Prime Minister since March 2017 was impeached today in the Lower House of Parliament in Mogadishu, PM Hassan Ali Khaire or Kheire. The Norwegian-Somali former oil executive and humanitarian in Norwegian Refugee Council.

He has no fallen from grace, just like his allies got rid of speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari in 2018. Who knows if the PM was behind the failed impeachment of the President Farmaajo in 2019. Now in 2020 he has himself gotten impeached by the same house, where he celebrated victory two years ago.

Khaire has a mixed review and that is for all the right reasons. It is for the seemingly easy access to licensing oil blocks to former comrades and companies. Also, his friendly relations with other allies. The possible use of networks and working as a satellite.

In 2019, there was reports that the PM had bought a Ahlu-Suna Wa Jamaa (ASWJ) militia of 4000 based in Galmuudug. Also, that he was using his proceeds to ensure loyalty of commanders with the Somali National Army (SNA) and NISA. Who knows if this all true, but if it is. Then, he has more power to himself, even after the fall from grace.

We cannot know at this stages. There been battles between the President and the PM on which model that was supposed to be used in the up-coming election. Also, if the PM wanted the Parliamentary model and not the one-to-one, which the President preferred. There been meetings done with states, which the President haven’t approved off and some said the PM crossed swords by doing this. Therefore, he had to be impeached and the Lower House would comply with that wish. As it has been a place of automatic approval of the will of the President since the impeachment of Jawari.

Clearly, Khaire has made his own bed. He has organized a lot of this and it backfired. He was trying to fix an easy access to the thrown post-Farmaajo. Hoping his allies and the ones behind him wouldn’t budge. However, that hit left-field and he lost today.

Some is saying his the best PM the Federal Republic ever had. With time and when his full record is exposed. We might know more. There will be allegations and alleged actions made. Also, if he was pocketed through Qatari backers or not. Who knows if the most vital part was to license the oil for Soma Oil and other partners.

Farmaajo may have won today, but he has to appoint someone who will get the same acceptance and ability to lead ahead of the elections. It will only be rocky from here. Khaire will still be in the wind. He will be around and mock every move. The real opposition ahead.

There is too much money at stake. To many business deals and obligations in the hands of the former PM. To just back-down and give way. Yes, he doesn’t have the title. The Lower House went against him. His allies turned on him as well. The PM must have thought he had enough support to win by Parliamentary Elections alone. However, that wasn’t true, they are all there to do the bidding of the President.

If the President appoint the wrong PM now. That will not only hurt his chances in 2021, but also deteriorate the political stability ahead of elections. As the Lower House might impeach him to again and this time succeed. As they accepted the President will to get rid of Khaire, but not having a good successor.

I don’t know, but this here is shady. The Famaajo and Khaire team-up is no history. Three years of work together down the drain. The President might look like a winner today, but down the line. He might regret this. His former campaigner and ally will turn against him now.

The PM who has fallen. Have now the opportunity to run all on his own accord. He can push his way as he wants and doesn’t have to consider the President at all. Some might say his fallen, but will only be proven by the next up-coming election and what he does then.

Because, the final is not here today. Yes, others has gone silent after they lost their title. However, I doubt Khaire is that type. Just await, there is a storm brewing. Who knows who will be hit by this in the future. The President or the MPs as well. If the move of President to impeach the PM wouldn’t create a ripple effect.

Khaire lost today, Famaajo might loose tomorrow and who knows when the MPs of the Lower House will loose too. Time will tell, but God knows what this might do to the Republic ahead of its elections. Peace.