Mogadishu Stand-Off: Jawari resigned, but did PM Khaire win?

Today, seems like a small victory for Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and the silent President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo. The Victory is that after weeks and nearly a month of political stand-off between the gentlemen, the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari. What is suspicious, is that it is resolved after millions of dollars coming from a Private Plane from United Arab Emirates landed in Mogadishu yesterday. It seems so fitting, that the ones behind the most controversial army base in Somaliland, and also the DP Port in Berbera, Somaliland. Suddenly, comes like Santa Clause to Mogadishu.

24 hours later, a stand-off between two parties are settled, while “investigations” into the money transaction continues. I am not saying people are bought-off, but it is seemingly so. To the RFI English Radio, Minister for Constitutional Affairs Abdurahman Hosh Jibril has said after law, the new Speaker has to be elected within 15 days. This would a sign of change or more control by the President and Prime Minister. It has already been reported that Farmaajo had tried to get Jawari to resign.

The Prime Minister has on the other hand, ordered a full lock-down of Mogadishu, sent Danab Force to the Parliament and also used Bancroft Mercenaries there. Therefore, the ones in the Executive Branch and highest positions has used fear to install the ones they want to have. While we can question the money of UAE yesterday, the UAE themselves saying it was money for salaries of the Somali National Army. Also coming out, is that the Military Base in Puntland from the UAE will be used as a launching pad for military activity in Yemen. Clearly, the internal in-fighting, has external consequences.

This clear interfering in Somali national is clear and they are trying to pay it off and in this instance, it has worked. Since the Speaker Jawari had to resign after long days of stand-offs and misfires. We now know that the Executive Branch is trying to steer the whole Parliament. They not guiding, but trying to steer the wheels directly. This is the initial part of this activity, they don’t want someone whose thinking for themselves as Speaker. They want a loyal puppet for the PM and the President. Why else go this far to get rid of him?

The PM Kheire and President Farmaajo, wouldn’t have this much time and come with such retaliations against a man, if there wasn’t something in it for them. To think otherwise is a bit naive, you don’t send the Danab Force to the Parliament, because you love or care about Parliamentary Procedures. You do it to send a signal and show your power. You don’t use American Mercenaries on the streets around to show grace and mercy, but install even more fear. That is what the PM has done and to think otherwise, is still naive.

That there are more than what reflects in the water, that is clear. What we do know is that there are reasons for this. If it is Soma Oil and their dealings, if it is UAE and their dealings. If it is that the Speaker wouldn’t follow the directions of the PM. That might be true, but what this has shown is how weak the President is and how powerful the PM is. The PM is the power actor behind it all, he was the one who raised the stakes. Also, because the Speaker and his group of MPs put a “no confidence” on the PM as well. Certainly, that will not be tabled. Neither the motion on Jawari.

But, even as this is a small victory for Khaire and Farmaajo, it isn’t really winning anything. They have lost face, their transgression has been proved and their lack of process is proven. Their missions and their acts are now in the open. There aren’t enough American drones to get rid of enemies of the ones who wants power. That should the PM and President know, but seemingly, they don’t.

Jawari is now out, but the struggle for supremacy is far from over. The Lower House still needs someone to lead it and stand behind the protocol and rules of the Parliament. That cannot be swept under the rug, but the PM and President want their man there.

This is not a real victory, it is a loss and that is evident. What is next is inevitable, that someone who can follow orders from the PM and President will become the Speaker. But if that will make the situation better, I doubt it. It will just get more tense and more of the ones who was behind Jawari will feel disfranchised. Unless, the PM tried to buy them-off too. Time will tell. Peace.

Opinion: Hon. Duale wants IGAD to intervene, that would be even foreign interference into the Mogadishu stand-off!

“IGAD Member States must hold an emergency meeting to resolve the protracted political crisis between Legislature and The Executive branches of Somalia Government in order to protect the gains made in security and stability under President Faramaajo. UAE should not undermine the sovereign of the Somali people and its legitimate institutions to function” (Hon. Aden Duale, 06.04.2018).

This is ironic, very ironic, that Intergovenmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should intervene in Somalia after the President and Prime Minister has worked hard to get rid-off the Speaker of the Lower House in Parliament. Where the two leaders has done whatever in their power to get him to resign and stop having a role in the National Assembly. However, the AMISOM, Danab Forces and all the other defensive organizations has been involved. As the motions hasn’t been put or been able to do so. Because of the political stalemate and stand-off, where the President and Prime Minister has lost face.

That is why it is ironic, that a political stand-off between the parties, which has already been involved with foreign forces, that the IGAD has an issue with the UAE in one of their member states. However, for the IGAD it must be a pickle, because to destroy the deal will also cost Ethiopia, which is also a member state. Somaliland government might end on the chopping board, but it will not do things to hurt Ethiopia. That will just not happen, IGAD will not seal the deal. They are not capable.

To call on IGAD, would be more for a PR Stunt, the AMISOM and Somali National Army has to take more cover and secure the manners as it is. Even if the supposed crisis is supposed to be solved on their own. But with the foreign brigades, the mercenaries from both United States and elsewhere, you can wonder if this will go away. That the foreign interests and the possible profits of ports and oil, will become more dire. As the politicians are trying to get their pay-offs. To say something else, is at this stage to be naive and hopeful.

That the Kenyan Majority Leader Duale calls on IGAD. Shows that Somalia needs more foreign involvement to solve self-made political crisis. That is not a sign of strength or protocol. Neither, is a good look, that someone whose army is part of the peacekeeping, but also directly on the border. Is planning to use Multi-National Organization to solve the issue. Instead, of this coming from internally and part of the Parliament itself.

As the self-inflicted problems created by the President and Prime Minister has to be solved. They have to look into themselves, as they have violated the Parliament, misused security organization to insight fear and even lock-down the capital in advance of pushing their motion against the speaker. This sort of activity cannot appear and it only shows lack of parliamentary progress. As the leaders of it is creating this.

IGAD, AMISOM and UNSOM shouldn’t be in the midst of the hornets nest waiting to sting. They will only patch the hurt, but will not fix the underlining issue. The second part of the irony of Hon. Duale. Is that he has issues with UAE, but he as Kenyan has no problem with interfering in Somalia. Which is interesting in itself and should be discussed. Because it shows the mentality and the reasoning behind the KDF involvement, not only for self-defense, but also even supremacy. That cannot be undermined, when he plays the position of IGAD to interfere on his behalf.

It is weird and ironic, but IGAD will not directly solve this matter. That has to be done by both fractions, if they care about their own safety and also the sanctity of the National Assembly. Also, how the Parliamentarians are planning to be bought by the PM or President, even if they are following procedure and listening to the Speaker. You can wonder what and how this will end. But this will not end with an Extra-Ordinary Session of IGAD. If things ended with that, the IGAD wouldn’t need dozens of them on South Sudan. I’m just saying and it has to be said. They can meet in Addis Ababa and speak of peace, but they cannot reasoning with the parties, unless they invite them too.

If not they are just like the American drones bombing as they like and after their collected intelligence of where the militants are. The same can be done by the IGAD, but with documents and meetings, but that will not solve the underlining issues. That will be there. No matter if Duale and the partners of IGAD interfere on his behalf.

It is ironic, that IGAD should interfere here, as the AMISOM tried to back-peddle what they have done in regards to the matter. The Americans hasn’t answered on the possible mercenaries who participated in the stand-off. However, the world has seen this and take notice of it.

Nevertheless, the stand-off, the stakeholders and the ones that in the midst of this, should do themselves a favor and have some fresh air. Because this is all up to the President and Prime Minister, if they want to reconcile their differences with the Speaker. That is if they have any sense at all and not are corporate stooges to outside forces already. If they are not planning to misuse the army and security organization to continue to insight fear in the elected officials in Mogadishu. But as “if they” and not “supposed to” or even “plans to change”, because if things will change, it has to be the ones that push for the orders and sends the soldiers, who has to act and enlighten the world for the reasons behind the matter. Peace.

AMISOM: AU Special Representative’s statement on Wednesday’s political developments in the Lower House of Parliament (06.04.2018)

Save Parliament Committee: Press Statement on Seizure of the Parliament Building in Somalia (06.04.2018)

The Stand-Off in Mogadishu continues: The Clash of the Big-Men!

“Mogadishu, April 4, 2018 – Over 300 well-armed special forces contingents of Danab, known as Somali Commandos, are deployed in Mogadishu today, including strategic locations, main intersections of the city as well as parliament building near the State House. These young forces were exclusively trained to destroy and dismantle Al Shabaab, but their deployment indicates reckless leadership at Villa Somalia who wouldn’t hesitate to misuse and abuse the purpose of our armed forces: to protect the country against foreign enemy and domestic terrorism. “It’s such a very unfortunate that we witness U.S. funded and trained special forces deployed in the parliament” said Honorable Ali Omar, a member of parliament who expressed shock and called the move a blatant abuse of power and authority. He added, “Danab was never used before in this manner, even during the highly contested election.” (U.S. Funded Special Forces Used for Political Standoff in Somalia, 04.04.2018).

The situation in Mogadishu politically still at a stalemate, between the same fractions that has been going on for weeks now. This is between the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. While this is happening, the Parliament has been in lock-down and lack of plenary sessions for the voting of ‘No Confidence’ for either parties. As secret meetings, as well as soldiers and mercenaries are involved now.

Bancroft mercenaries was seen at the Parliament today, as well as the Peacekeeping Force own leadership was around the Speaker today, talking about how the political stakeholders has to find solution and have dialogue. This is happening as the recent days, the President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Faramajo even asked the Speaker directly to resign, but he retorted that he worked for people and not for the President. Therefore, there been none wished reactions from the Speaker.

Yesterday evening, parts of the capital was under lock-down, soldiers sealing of the streets as the government prepared for the voting. They blocked Members of Parliament to enter in the morning today at the Parliament. While this has been going on UN Representative for Somalia Michael Keating has talked and had a session during this week with the Prime Minister, but not stepped further into the nests of eagles. He is afraid he might become a prey if this go south.

The lack of clear leadership, as well as the political mind-games, while the stakes are so high. The military, the Somali National Army (SNA) has taken away the safety detail of the speaker, while he has moved soldiers from AMISOM. This is clearly, showing how the mandate of foreign forces are involved in the midst of the stand-off. AMISOM and American Mercenaries are all involved in the political hit-job.

You know things get worse when the government are putting the blame on someone: “Commander of Police Gen Bashir Abdi Mohamed accused Speaker Jawari of bringing armed men into parliament, says he ordered security forces not to open fire. MPs supporting Jawari say they were his normal bodyguards” (Harun Maruf, 04.04.2018). The Police Commander is clearly, saying Jawari who later claimed it was just bodyguards he took to the Parliament, most likely so. He later in the day lost this and the AMISOM has to secure his passage. Clearly, the pettiness of the leadership is not over yet.

There are underlining factors to this, but clearly, there are some foreign pressure and foreign funding, since the government are using mercenaries to close of the Parliament. Some claim the DP Port Berbera deal with Somaliland, Ethiopia and UAE is the reason behind it. Since the Parliament wants to make it “null and void” and the government want it to be. Because they are greedy to get their taking of the profits made by the Somaliland agreement.

But his escalated situation is also all the guns that is in the streets, as Al-Shabaab is able to drop of mines and bombs in the city. That they have been able through the stand-off. Even as the SNA, Mercenaries and AMISOM is guarding the city, but they are preoccupied to keep politicians safe. Instead of saving the whole city.

There is also reported that the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) brigade will take charge of the security of the Parliamentary building. While the reports are also saying all Parliamentary Business is suspended. That is making sense, since all parties should go back to the drawing-board and find a solution. Instead, the stand-off is because of pride and wanting to gain personal power. To show whose the big-man and skip procedure.

That the President had a meeting with the Security Commanders after the failure in Parliament is natural, as he has used all sorts of tricks to install fear together with the Prime Minister. Who both haven’t come out with a reason. The ones who has been the Speaker who is caring about his career and the protocol of the Parliament. A Parliament that again and again, has been invaded by aliens and soldiers, with intent to spread fear and get the MPs in line with the government. They are really going all in, like this will clear the way of extensive rule for the two partners in crime.

This is clearly not the final say, but the relics of hope of good ending is dwindling, why? Because all men are going for the guns, to solve political squabble, instead of taking it by codes and protocol, the state has used all sort of military outfits, while the Parliament has done what it could to cope. Jawari is the only one who has been transparent and open, dropping often statements, while the state has been silent and hope that the fear was the final straw. That has not worked.

“BREAKING: Somali army chief Gen Abdiweli Jama Gorod says a group of soldiers who entered parliament today w/ weapons has been “detained”. According to a security source, about 45 soldiers were arrested. Earlier Speaker Jawari said he only took his bodyguards into the parliament” (Harun Maruf, 04.04.2018). This is clearly, showing that the state is retaliating against him and wants him to suffer, because he didn’t resigned like they wanted yesterday. While the Parliament is in chaos and suspended.

The interference and uncertainty will continue. The lack of transparency and neither clear motives are putting the Parliament in jeopardy, but that is maybe the will of the President and Prime Minister. They don’t care as long as they are on top. They are ruling and can do so, because they have the army and the Danab brigade to put on the streets of Mogadishu. But certainly, this is not looking like strength, but weakness.

The PM tried to spin the media to say the Speaker broke the peace of the Parliament with his Security Detail, this from the man who sent the SNA into the Parliament and forced everyone out. Blocked the Parliament and had AMISOM get in February 2018. Therefore, trusting the PM on this matter is a blatant lie, to overshadow his own ignorant attitude towards the Parliament.

It is making a mockery of the Lower House and the Parliament. Because they are not delivering the policies or safety, but clashing ego’s. It to show character and man-up, not send more guns to the streets. Time to talk and listen, find a good way out that makes sense. Since this doesn’t! Peace.

Coup in Mogadishu Part II: Was the action today from AMISOM a redeployment or a takeover of the Parliament?

Yesterday’s stand-off in the Parliament as the two tabled ‘no confidence’ votes transpired into the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire decision to send the Special Guard to the Parliament to prove his power to the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. Today, The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sent troops to the Parliament to settle the stand-off of yesterday, if these we’re the orders of the Force Commander Lieutenant General Osman Noor Soubagleh or somebody else is hard to know.

But the political squabble and the use of military force to settle the score cannot continue. This transpiring efforts will only undermine the state and the means of the Federal Government of Somalia. That is not a show of strength, when the PM orders the Special Guards to the Parliament, neither is it show of strength, when the Peacekeepers has to occupy the National Assembly. We all know that is a bad sign ahead. No matter what they call the action today, if it a redeployment or a takeover. Yesterday, was a vicious act to spike fear in the mind of Jawari, even if I doubt it would do that to him,

We can wonder where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo has been, why he hasn’t said anything, condemn either of the political actors, neither his deputy or the speaker. No one has been answered, the President is so silent. You could think he was hiding beneath a rock or try to get to Addis Ababa. Because, he is not heard from. Even the fishes speaks more of the recent acts in Mogadishu than him, I am sure Nemo has some answers for Farmajo.

Another one, who usually challenges the political landscape and acts like a local kingpin, is United Nations Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating. I was expecting to blaze all guns and spiteful chants of different types. As he sometimes at international affairs and even at forums are more viable than heads of the Federal Government of Somalia. Therefore, in an affair like this, he might should have taken more charge. Since he likes the spotlight and looks like he matters in Somalian questions.

With the AMISOM actions, they clearly used the status of the 11 Point of their mandate: “To provide and assist, as appropriate, protection to the Somali authorities to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure” (AMISOM – ‘AMISOM Mandate’). So the Parliament can be seen as part of Somali authorities and key infrastructure. Some call the acts today a redeployment and not a takeover. But after yesterday, it seems like an act to show their mandate to the people.

Since the Special Guards came yesterday, we can wonder how this will evolve, how the different fractions will behave and how the next few days will be. Since the PM has used the army for his personnel gain, while questions of others non-action shows their true face. It should be expected that the President acts and also address his closest Deputy, instead he has left him go of the hook. He could also have addressed the Speaker to clear the air. Instead, nothing has happen and the transpired affair shows.

The ending of a political career can show the weakest links, can show how they act under stress. The PM goes to use soldiers and use of the army to settle his affairs with men who wants him away. The Speaker tries to use protocol and find out if he is allowed to do the same. However, the one with the guns stops all activity, but he loses face, because they know it was wrong behavior and the world knows it.

PM Kheire has flipped has cards, but he doesn’t have a full-house, not even a straight flush, he should have wished he had a royal flush, but he didn’t. We could wish the PM had bluffed, but he didn’t stack the deck, he just went into with a bad hand. The risked all with all-in without knowing the consequences. We will see if he wins, but it will not be because of brilliant tactics, because it hasn’t been.

AMISOM has acted, but the tale of the Lower House of the Parliament is not over and the ‘No Confidence’ for either the Speaker and PM will come up again. But the one that has lost face is the PM. Who has misused his position and put himself in the line of fire, because of either arrogance or fear for his position. Peace.

Coup in Mogadishu: PM Khaire Vs. Speaker Jawari!

There are reports that the Somali National Army and the Special Guard on orders by the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire today after there been secret meetings of a ‘No Confidence’ towards him and wanted it to be tabled at the Parliament. This was supposed to be a group of 40 MPs in the Parliament. However, the PM has addressed this with sending the army to the Parliament and seizing it. To silence and stop the House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. As well as the PM took away the Security Detail for the Speaker hours earlier. This is really a stand-off between the two power brokers.

This week the blows between has been evident as the tablet ‘no confidence’ against Jawari, that was in the media on the 13^th March, now on the 16^th March, the whole brigade has blown over. Since the PM has used his powers to act against the people who wants him down.

Even United Nations in Somalia (UNSOM) has this Press Statement late today: “JOINT PRESS STATEMENT: International community extremely concerned by recent political developments in #Somalia, urges respect for constitutional processes to resolve differences” (UNSOM, 16.03.2018).

This stand-off is because of different ‘no confidence’ votes and signatures. Earlier in the week, there was 40 MPs at an undisclosed location planning to put forward a petition to vote on the future of the Prime Minister. However, that has no been countered, but the PM decided to order the army. Therefore, this isn’t procedure or trying to resolve matter with words or persuasion. The same issue as of the fear, there are reports of regroup of 91 MPs to support the suspension of the Session tomorrow tabled by the speaker. But that is only to be in the good graces of the ones using the army against the Parliament.

While the Minister of Security Mohamed Abukar Islow Dualle wants to deflect the reports that has been going on for hours, as they are saying: “denies reports of the seizure of the Parliament building, says it sent reinforcement units to boost the security” (Garowe Online, 16.03.2018).

Just to further verification to all the speculations, that this is real, the reporting from Radio Dalsan said this: ““The security of the Parliament is not our control.If anything happens in Parliament the responsibility is not mine but the PM.The security is not in our hands but has gone to the PM. The responsibility has been taken by him” Speaking to journalists at his office Jawari added” (…) “Radio Dalsan reporter Saleymaan Rage confirmed the presence of extra military personnel deployed at the Parliament buildings. These latest development followed this week’s failed vote of no confidence against Jawari” (…) “Mps loyal to Jawari have accused Khaire of being the mastermind of the vote of no confidence against Speaker Jawari. Jawari said that he is ready to face the motion on the floor of the house if the legal requirements are met” (…) “Deputy Speaker Abdulkadir Mudey on Thursday had announced that the motion is legitimate and will brought to the house. Jawari has been a speaker since 2012” (Radio Dalsan, 16.03.2018).

“Jawari claims reason motion was initiatied again him is because “I refused to sign documents that are contrary to the principle and trust”. If any problem happens at building it’ll be the responsibility of the PM who ordered seizure, Somali people should know that, Jawari says” (Harun Maruf, 16.03.2018).

At this point, with the allegations going both ways, the weakest link seems to be the one who ordered the army and Special Guards to takeover the Parliament. Take away the Parliamentary Guards and the ones securing the Parliament Speakers Security. That is really to insult to injury and also intimidate the Speaker of the Lower House. Prime Minister Khaire are really messing up the political landscape and also showing his will to use force to stay in power.

That PM Khaire is afraid is evident by his actions, since he fears for both motions, that the Lower House would get enough signatures and votes to impeach him. That would have insulted him and also his career. Seemingly, the speaker since 2012 would follow procedure and make sure he didn’t get enough signatures against him. That is what the PM should be doing, making alliances and making sure the Parliament would be on his side, even as the secret meetings was appearing. However, he has instead sent the army and trying to tell it isn’t anything. Like the Speaker would cry foul and spread the news, when it is nothing. It is Mogadishu. He knows when he see army personnel and when they takeover of the Parliament.

This is a coup, where the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire has taken all power in his hands and doesn’t care for the aftermath. He is clearly using his power and the position he has to stop the Speaker of the Lower House. Clearly, this is a violation and a stand-off. We just have to see, what will be the next movement. What it will cost for the Parliament, for the motions and for the Speaker. Even if this will backfire for the PM who is in-charge of the operation.

While we can wonder, why the President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Faramajo has been silent and hasn’t acted? Doesn’t he care about the Parliament or the Speaker? Is he a puppet for the Prime Minister? That is things I wonder about, since this sort of action should have been done by the President and the No Confidence should been pushed with him first and then the PM. That would be common sense, as the MPs would bring down the center and maneuver down the food-chain. Instead, the Second in Command is the one people are questioning. Than, you know there are something behind closed-doors that is not known in public or disclosed yet. Peace.

Readout of the Secretary-General’s meeting with H.E. Mr. Hassan Ali Khayre, Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Somalia (25.09.2017)

The Secretary-General reaffirmed the United Nations’ full support in the humanitarian, security and the human rights areas.

NEW YORK, United States of America, September 25, 2017 – The Secretary-General met with H.E. Mr. Hassan Ali Khayre, Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

The Secretary-General commended Somalia for the progress made in advancing state-building. The Secretary-General and the Prime Minister also discussed efforts related to security sector reform and revenue generation.

The Secretary-General reaffirmed the United Nations’ full support in the humanitarian, security and the human rights areas, as well as in the implementation of Somalia’s development plans. The Secretary-General also reiterated support to AMISOM and to the creation of Somali institutions.