Opinion: Did Al-Bashir win today? – Seems like the Nasir Rebellion worked out in his favor!

Today, the release of the Points of Framework Agreement of 25th June 2018 was released. Key sentences from the agreement between Transitional Government of National Unity(TGoNU)/Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army(SPLM/A) of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) of Dr. Riek Machar with oversight of agreement of the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. The sentence between these gentlemen that can be put in question is this:

To delegate the government of Sudan to take the necessary steps towards securing oil fields in South Sudan in coordination with the Government of South Sudan, and to work on the rehabilitation of the oil fields with the view to restore previous levels of the oil production. In this context, the outstanding issues between the two sisterly countries of Sudan and South Sudan related to oil sector shall be resolved” (Points of Framework Agreement, 25.06.2018).

Did the Nasir rebellion against Dr. John Garang win did this week? Since the years has gone since Dr. Riek Machar rebelled against Garang with support of Khartoum. Now the Khartoum government clearly has one over the New Sudan and the vision of independent South Sudan. Especially if they are taking more control of the oil sector in both Republics. This is a solid victory for the Warlord of Khartoum. He has solidified his balance and his terms, without doing much of late. His partner and friend Machar has served him a victory. The Nasir Fraction has given way and made sure that support of SPLM/A-IO, the rebellion that started in Nasir in 28th August 1991. That means the battle and support of Al-Bashir was worth it for Machar.

That Kiir and SPLM/A should feel fooled, they should as they we’re battling for independence and control of the oil reserves, but if the agreement is ratified. Than the Khartoum still will have control and the issues of the past will resurface. This is like the past has hit Juba again. The New Sudan has been outsmarted and the plans of interference and using proxy militias has worked for Al-Bashir. The Kiir government are really tarnishing the ideas the of Dr. Garang if he follows these provisions and honors these words. Then the New Sudan is slowing dying, as they are still noble creatures being told what to earn and how much to get by the Khartoum regime.

That this wasn’t what South Sudan fought for, when they fought for secession from Khartoum. They didn’t sign agreements of separation to give securities and the valuable oil be controlled by Al-Bashir. He is getting his will and the Nasir Rebellion has succeeded today.

Especially if the partners are following this or even thinking of implementing this. Certainly, this is disrespectful to long battle for freedom from Khartoum. That the Warlords has possibly traded away the thing of the most value, the oil. The revenue will again be in control from afar.

This is a victory for Khartoum and a loss for Juba. Certainly looks like it to me. The South Sudanese might gotten a cease-fire, but with these provisions. It is surely costly and loss of independence after all. Peace.

South Sudan: Points of Framework Agreement (25.06.2018)

Refugee Scandal: The OPM doubled the refugee numbers in Imvepi, West Nile!

If you ever think there was a big business adding ghosts. The Office of the Prime Minister in Uganda has made that their bread- and butter. They are known for this, but the UNHCR and other partners are making it sound like a “mistake”. Because they know if the Republic has more refugees, it would be easier to ask for more and more donations, bigger donations and even huge to cover the need for shelter, food and education of the refugees. Especially in our time, when the Western Hemisphere is doing whatever they can to stop the flow of migrants going their way. The European Union and their partners rather pay Uganda to keep the settlements, than get them moving to the Mediterranean to a better future. That is why I am not shocked that the OPM inflated the numbers and made the amounts sound bigger, it means they could collect more donations and get more hurry for funds to cover expenses of the Republic.

However, government and the UNHCR are insisting that the discrepancies do not appear deliberate but were occasioned by circumstances imposed by the mass influx and complex movements of refugees in the country. In Imvepi Refugee Settlement in West Nile for example, 53,856 refugees were verified using the Biometric Information Management System (BIMS) against 127,325 which had been registered under the government’s Refugee Information Management System (RIMS), representing a 58 per cent drop, according to figures by the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM). During a June 7 “coordination meeting” chaired by the Prime Minister, Dr Ruhakana Rugunda, whose minutes this newspaper has seen, OPM officials resolved to pursue the culprits in the scam and discuss how to manage the information flow to avoid potential backfire about the scandal. “OPM should initiate a report that will give a comprehensive brief about those issues and solutions as so far taken to solve the problem. The brief should be pre-emptive of the criticism that may be likely to come from other agencies concerning these discrepancies,” the minutes read in part” (Kafeero, 2018).

This is one report of the UNHCR and OPM working together after the inflated number and OPM Refugee scandal hit the headlines a while ago. Not that anyone should be shocked, the monetary gains for faking the numbers are huge and to pay for ghosts are cheap. That is how you go from a Toyota Prado to a Ford Expedition, even by luck a Land Rover Discovery. The politician can be flagged down in the most beautiful SUV with tinted windows in the village. That will be worth it for cheating someone who doesn’t care anyway.

That is why this is not shocking. What is seriously foolish, is that UNHCR are white-washing the problem. As they are accepting the initial numbers, which was forged to secure more funding, but calling it a mistake. While the OPM want to solve it now, as it makes them look greedy, which they are. They are trying to directly eat of the plate of the refugees and eat the donor aid for the ones fleeing crisis to stay in safety in Uganda. That is why the OPM shouldn’t just make a report, but come clean on all their numbers. As this is just one Refugee Settlement in West Nile. Who knows what sort of numbers they have forged and fixed to get more donations. Because, I don’t trust the OPM. They are in the business of inflating and making the government look good, while applying for funds from donors.

Amama Mbabazi was know for his shady deals and Rugunda have followed suit. Therefore, the Office itself is doing business- as usual, That business lying out of their teeth, while acting like nothing bad is happening behind closed doors. Peace.

Reference:

Kafeero, Stephen – ‘Government, UN probe finds inflated refugee figures’ (26.05.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Government-UN-probe-finds-inflated-refugee-figures/688334-4629122-15pwjiuz/index.html

Uganda Media Centre: Press Release on RDCs (25.06.2018)

Uganda: Office of the President – Press Release concerning RDCs Fraternity (24.06.2018)

Communique of the 32nd Extra-ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan (21.06.2018)

The NRM have fixed Butebo and Pallisa District By-Elections before the polls starts!

The newly created district Butebo district out of Pallisa district, where the boundaries was even contested in Parliament before the creation of it in November 2017. Therefore, the coming election for 28th June will be with National Resistance Movement MP Flag-bearer Samuel Keddi. You know the district is poor, when the district itself only have one car, this is owned by Butebo Sub-County District Councilor Gabriel Enyaru. That is why this By-Election is showing how unfavorable the wealth is shared in the Republic.

So, the NRM today came out with Press Release mocking the Opposition for not fielding a candidate, however, that is untrue. With the creation of the Butebo District. Forum for Democratic Change was ready to field their candidates in the district, by they were all disqualified by the Electoral Commission. This was preliminary precaution of the NRM. To secure a victory without any real contest. The biggest losers here is the residents of Butebo and Pallisa, who doesn’t have real competition for their voters for their new District Chairman and Woman MP.

The reason we know this is because: “there is an affidavit certified by URSB and in The Uganda Gazette clarifying on the issue of names but the Mr. Museveni has still insisted on disqualifying the FDC candidate by Monday 18th June 2018” (Harold Kaija, 15.06.2018).

That is why the NRM regime is securing the Butebo MP without really trying and fixing the results before it begins. The NRM is afraid of any real effort. The Bugiri By-Election is already heavy contested and is a worry, combined with the Jinja East, Kyadondo East and Rukungiri By-Elections. The NRM doesn’t want the Butebo District and Pallisa District to become another win for the Opposition. It has been insulting enough. That is why Museveni have ordered the EC to deliver the results on a silver plate. That is why they have also disqualified Pallisa Woman MP Candidate Achola Catherine Osupelem from the FDC.

Seems like Museveni gets his will, the FDC will not be allowed to run their Chairperson Flag-bearer Sam Khalwa against Keddi. That is weak-tea. When the NRM claims there was no opposition candidate for that role, when Khalwa was ready.

How stupid does the NRM think the people are?

They have disqualified the FDC candidates in the Butembo and Pallisa Districts. Therefore, the retribution from the public, should be defy the polls and not show up on 28th June 2018 in Butebo, as the NRM has fixed the result in their favor already! Both Woman MP and District Chairperson have been barred from the race. Peace.

NRM Secretariat – Re: SG Lumumba in Butebo Today (23.06.2018)

Age Limit Petition: Asking for a Court Judgement (20.06.2018)

South Sudan: The War-Lords wasn’t ready to speak about Peace!

In South Sudan the prolonged civil war is continuing and with the fresh dialogue between the parties didn’t help. Some had hope that the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – In Government (SPLM-IG) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) under the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. He has been ruling and with an iron fist. While the main opposition leader and rebel Dr. Riek Machar are running the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). There is also a coalition of other rebels and opposition, who is the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) of 8 political parties/militias, some of them are run by big men like Dr. Lam Akol (National Democratic Movement – NDM) and Gen. Thomas C. Swaka (National Salvation Front – NAS).

Therefore, the knowledge of delegations from SSOA, TGoNU and SPLM/A-IO in the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) that has failed as even the house-arrested Machar couldn’t mend the fences or the idea of peaceful progress. That means the army and militias will continue to fight until they got supremacy.

Some people had hope as Ethiopian Government hosted this 32nd Extra-Ordinary Session in Addis Ababa and the shared arrangement to work on the “Revised Bridging Proposal” for all the stakeholders in the conflict as IGAD prepared for the dialogue this week. Still, that did not make it easier. They have the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) &Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM). All of these are interfering and monitoring the Republic. This combined with all the NGOs and Bilateral Organizations who support as well. Therefore, the international community is involved in the process. They are bookkeeping and securing needed services in the midst of the civil war, even footing the bills for it all. So the TGoNU can continue their fighting against their opposition.

This combined with various agreements that has not been kept, cease fire violations and such. These War-Lords really has no plan of quitting. They are preoccupied with the continued conflict and the looting of the Republic. There major resources being squandered away, not only seen by the Sentry in their reports, but the Kenyan bloggers are looking into the money laundering and estates owned by the War-Lords from South Sudan. Clearly, they are preoccupied with earning money on the toils and tears created by the conflict. That is why they are afraid of their future if the conflict ends. The guns are speaking their language. Even as the people are still lingering in refugee camps abroad and the Republic has no solution. The leadership isn’t hungry for peace, it is hungry to overcome its advisory.

At this point as the years lingers and the leaders continue to eat of the poverty, the famine and civil-wars, even as the state is bankrupt, creating higher bank-notes and the international community is footing the bills for development and needed supplies in refugee camps. This is clearly not the intention. But that is the sad reality as the innocent are dying and is afraid. The own leadership are holding this on. They are violating agreements or stifling it. If they are not getting their way, they are picking up guns or sending tanks to their yards. That is what happen in 2016, when the 2015 Agreement was starting to be established. However, that only lasted months before the new fresh conflict we are seeing today. Since then, there has been more deflections and more creations of new outfits who wants both Machar and Kiir to step down. However, none of them seems to fit the bill.

The state of affairs is sad. The people deserve peace, but War-Lords are busy finding ways to outsmart the enemies. Instead of dialogue and building real bridges, they are instead blowing them up hoping no-one finds out.

The people of South Sudan deserves better, but the leadership is busy killing each other and trying only to use ammunition to do so. They are not interested in talking. They know the trigger and is ready to aim. Peace.