South Sudan: Newly appointed SPLA Chief of General Staff: “My Priority is to stabilize the country” (13.05.2017)

President Kenyatta orders that imports of Sugar and Milk Powder to be tariff free until August 2017, who in the Jubilee will eat the spoils?

President Uhuru Kenyatta finally found a solution to the rising the prices and inflation on basic foods. Therefore on the day there is 30,000 tons Sugar coming in at Mombasa this morning.

This after the first Executive Order of Kenyatta this year said: “That the drought and the famine in parts of Kenya is a national disaster, duty shall not be payable for the following items- 

(a) Sugar imported by any person, with effect from the date of Notice to the 31st August, 2017; and

(b) nine thousand tonnes of milk powder imported by milk processors, with the authority of the Kenya Dairy Board, with effect from the date of this Notice to the 31st August, 2017 Dated the 11th May 2017” (The Kenya Gazette, Vol. CXIX – No. 62, Nairobi, 12th May 2017).

So as this happens, you can wonder if the Sugar millers and Sugar exporters are connected with the government. Since the 30,000 tons just appear on the day after the gazette. That means, someone knew about the plans of the government and let it happen. It isn’t just appearing from the sky, that a holy angel sends 30,000 tons of sugar to Kenya and the Port of Mombasa on the day after the Executive Order was signed and than relieved to the public by Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury Henry Rotich. He is just a useful CS, who certainly will have his pieces of deliverance of all the duty free goods.

That the government, close connections with the Jubilee government and the Sugar cartels will surely gain profits on these exported foods. This been in a country where the tariffs has been a 100% on Sugar and added VAT 16 %. Therefore, this reactions seem to be a ploy to earn monies on gullible people and think that the people will take it as goodwill. This is happening at the same time, as the prices on sugar is still on a two year low worldwide. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, might think the Kenyans doesn’t see through this. But they should question the companies, the boats and who orders the duty free goods to Kenya from today and until 31st August.

Like who earns the profits on the sugar and the milk powder in these months. They are clearly planning it and not only for the famine and drought. But for sole purpose of gaining massive amount of funds in the period of campaigning. This just appearing and ordered in the critical time. The Jubilee government doesn’t know how to be subtle. Can wonder if any of the corporations and importing businesses owned by the Kenyatta’s or Ruto’s would benefit from this. I wouldn’t be shocked, neither if anyone else of the Jubilee government got a payday and huge amount of Bob’s in their accounts. Peace.

The law: 

Opinion: President Museveni is the wrong man for the job, he is not suited to mediate in South Sudan!

I have been allowed by President Salva Kiir to mediate the warring factions in South Sudan. I will use the IGAD monitoring report and work with the IGAD chairman, Ethiopias’ Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn to see that those who abuse the ceasefire are talked to,” the President said in a one to one meeting with Mr. Guterres at the sidelines of the International Conference on Somalia at Lancaster House in London” (Okello, 2017)

There are no possible good ending, even as the hyper-inflation marked with the Kenyan Central Bank (KCB) leaving South Sudan. The longstanding conflict and the ruin it has created, the million refugees, hundred thousands in refugee settlements and land in Northern Uganda. Therefore, the Ugandan Republic and the National Resistance Movement are involved in the conflict, even if they doesn’t have brigades on the ground.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has sent in the past Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) to sort out the issues of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army (SPLM/A). These was known and done without any international acceptance and made sure to stop the rebels under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar and the Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army In-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).

There been reports during this year that the UPDF have helped out with arms export to the SPLA and also helping with operations in Aboko and Bieh State to get technical assistance and also made sure they could use chemical warfare in state. This happen in mid-April 2017, not so long ago. The UPDF involvement is in clear violation and also supporting the government in war-crimes. This have been again paid secret agreements between President Kiir and President Museveni.

That these too men knows each other and has traded is well-known. President Museveni has been helping the cause of SPLM/A for so long, therefore, for some of us it was special when President Omar Al-Bashir showed up last May 2016 at his inauguration. Because President Bashir knows that Museveni helped the SPLM/A and has done for long while. This because President Museveni wants influence and also earn on arms export to the Republic.

With this knowledge, that he is partial and collaborating closely with the Kiir Government and SPLM/A. How will he impartial and be able to fix the amends, try to mediate and understand all the rebellions in South Sudan? The biggest is still SPLM/A-IO, but the others National Salvation Front (NSF) and National Democratic Movement (NDM) has been established during the recent year. There are others as well, both leaders leaving the SPLM/A-IO and SPLM/A. Therefore, the status and complex context are evident.

There illicit crimes appearing as civilians are fleeing, the man-made famine and loss of lives. The lacking structures and trust in the central government, combined with more guns and bullets, than healthy chickens. Therefore, this is land of warlords and not of peacemakers. The land where it easier to pick up the rifle, than discussing the issues and negotiations. The latest deal went down the drain in a massive attack on Juba and a fleeing Dr. Riek Machar to Democratic Republic of Congo, and later in exile in South Africa. There is also a base and important station of SPLM/A-IO in Nairobi, Kenya. As the Kenyan are also involved in the UNMISS mission in South Sudan.

This complex and condition of the state are not only fragile, but hold in the hands of Kiir. President Kiir who is known for getting help and buying support by President Museveni and his UPDF. So why should someone who hands over guns and technical arms to SPLM/A try to negotiate with all of the partners in the crisis? The supplier of the government and trading partner suddenly become friendly to all of the actors inside South Sudan?

I don’t have faith in the motives or initiative from President Museveni, he will together with President Kiir. Find ways of getting the rebels inside corridors or inside valleys where he can blast them into oblivion. He will find the weakness of the enemies of the President Kiir and then use the tools to deceive and try to seem peaceful, but that will back-fire with golden attack that will destroy them. That is what Museveni has done in the past. He first talks, than finds it and than uses the positions to gain more control.

If the bilateral talks between United Nations Security General Antonio Guterres will certify President Museveni to do the peace talk. Than he is naive or trying to forge relations so he looks wise. Neither, has others, if they want Museveni to really help out. Museveni only helps out if he can earn, get money and huge profits on the crisis. He will also use the South Sudanese refugees as pawns to get more donor money to the government. Not really help them out, they are needed pawns for the failing economy in Uganda.

President Museveni shouldn’t be considered or play parts of the negotiation and peace-talks in South Sudan. He is already invested and has been invested in the SPLM/A agenda as he wants the loyalty of President Kiir. In the regard, the international community should look for someone like Kofi Annan or even Thabo Mbeki, to try their magic wand to fix the crisis. President Museveni isn’t fit or the right man. He is only the right man if we want President Salva Kiir Mayardit to be armed to his teeth and annihilate the rebels. Peace.

Reference:

Okello, Dickens H. – ‘Museveni to Mediate South Sudan Conflict; Mobilises $2bn for Refugees’ (12.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/museveni-to-mediate-south-sudan-conflict-mobilises-2bn-for-refugees/

South Sudan: Press Statement of H.E. President Salva Kiir Mayardit (12 May 2017)

Opinion: Jubilee and President Kenyatta hires Cambridge Analytica to ‘Big Data’ massage their Campaign message!

Today there we’re revealed that the International ‘Big Data’ Company Cambridge Analytica, the offspring of Strategic Communication Laboratories (SCL), who has appeared and even had now Presidential Adviser Steve Bannon on their board. This company is famous for using their techniques to manipulate and make sure the message of the Trump campaign got spread to the masses. This through the big data collection and through the algorithms that the social media sites produces. So that the election cycle can produce stories and messages, that are positive in favor of the ones that are trying to get elected and are the clients of the Cambridge Analytica or SCL.

Therefore, the news of Jubilee Alliance Party, that President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto hired the company to alter the big data traffic in Kenya. Proves that they will use any method, except the righteous ones to win. Because Jubilee knows they are trading in shallow waters, with a IEBC, rising food prices and inflation, together with missed promises from the last campaign. Therefore, the Jubilee are now sticking to the expensive tricks of the trade from the United Kingdom and United States. Certainly, the chicken-gate will not be replicated, but might tried to be deflected as people are not finding out about quick enough. Take a look!

Big Data on the Kenyan Election:

According to sources in the Office of the President cited by The Star newspaper, the Jubilee coalition contracted Cambridge Analytica, which “uses data to change audience behaviour” (…) “Based on a Guardian expose, The Star newspaper writes that in the Kenyan context, Cambridge Analytica is expected “to pay Facebook and other third-party data companies for information about Kenya’s undecided voters whom it will then bombard with social media posts and adverts” (…) “Cambridge Analytica, which has already dispatched a small team to Kenya, will work alongside BTP Advisers. The latter has already commenced campaign planning” (Buchanan, 2017).

Methods:

Cambridge Analytica has marketed itself as classifying voters using five personality traits known as OCEAN — Openness, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism — the same model used by University of Cambridge researchers for in-house, non-commercial research. The question of whether OCEAN made a difference in the presidential election remains unanswered. Some have argued that big data analytics is a magic bullet for drilling into the psychology of individual voters; others are more skeptical. The predictive power of Facebook likes is not in dispute. A 2013 study by three of Kogan’s former colleagues at the University of Cambridge showed that likes alone could predict race with 95 percent accuracy and political party with 85 percent accuracy. Less clear is their power as a tool for targeted persuasion; Cambridge Analytica has claimed that OCEAN scores can be used to drive voter and consumer behavior through “microtargeting,” meaning narrowly tailored messages. Nix has said that neurotic voters tend to be moved by “rational and fear-based” arguments, while introverted, agreeable voters are more susceptible to “tradition and habits and family and community.” (Schwartz, 2017).

We don’t consider ourselves a ‘big data’ company, we are a data analytics company. Many organization out there want to serve as the database of record for their clients. We aim to be the layer on top of that, which provides our clients with actionable insights – essentially acting as the brain behind the decision-making process. We’ve come a long way, but there is still a lot of work to be done on the side of automation. Campaigns move so quickly that often it’s difficult to keep up. The more automation we can bring to the process outside of the campaign HQ will greatly increase our speed in delivering insights to the decision makers” (Patterson, 2017).

Privacy International on CA:

It’s one thing to profile people, and another to say that because of that profiling you are able to effectively change behaviour on a mass scale. Cambridge Analytica clearly does the former, but only claims (!) to succeed in the latter. Even before the company was in the news, their methods raised a lot of eyebrows amongst experts on data-driven campaigning, with one consultant claiming that “everyone universally agrees that their sales operation is better than their fulfilment product” (Kaltheuner, 2017).

So even if Privacy International are saying that the CA are not as all powerful as they claim they are. This might be relief, even if the idea of all power Big Data collective and possible manipulation of electoral process. This being the sales pitch of the CA and SCL. That the company will micro-targeting the Kenyan electorate with big data and five personality traits on their OCEAN program. We can officially question their motives and if the Jubilee will believe in it. If so, they are smug and thinking they can rig the whole spectrum news and sharing of information ahead of the last months of campaigning. They can certainly need to circle their message and deliver on inflation and on the food prices.

“‘The impressive bit,’ says Nix, is to expand the findings from those who took the personality tests to the entire American electorate of 230 million. They can do this because Cambridge Analytica also has ‘4,000–5,000 data points’ — pieces of information — on every single adult in the US. This can be anything from age, gender and ethnicity to what magazines they buy, which TV programmes they watch, the food they eat, the cars they drive, even the golf clubs they belong to. This is indeed impressive — and a little bit creepy. Regardless, the data is for sale; Cambridge Analytica take it and (they have persuaded their clients) spin it into gold. There are two assumptions: first that people who buy the same things and have the same habits — the same ‘data points’ — have similar personalities; secondly that your personality will help predict, say, whether you go for Coke or Pepsi, Clinton or Trump. ‘Behaviour is driven by personality,’ Nix said” (…) “A Republican data scientist for a rival firm said he did not use psychographics. ‘If you get a voter on the phone, why are you asking them what their favourite ice cream is or what their favourite colour is — why don’t you just ask them who they’re going to vote for?’ He added: ‘They’ve got a smooth-talking Brit wearing Savile Row suits who gives you a great pitch and wows you a little bit; they’ve got a great PR operation, but with psychographic profiling, there’s nothing there. They’re really, really smart people. It’s like they’re a bunch of board-certified doctors who decided to make a lot more money selling snake oil’” (Wood, 2016).

So, if this is true, than President Kenyatta has bought into the CA tricks and that people believes in the companies sales pitch. Something that cannot claim at this point. If so, wouldn’t more people be direct afraid, also PI for instance who is always talking about the possibility of what CA is promising. Therefore, the British sales pitch is bought by the Jubilee, but the public should be aware of the misuse of funds to pay the foreign political data enterprise, who clearly see a naive bunch of Kenyans. Kenyans who has money to spend on something cannot be proven. President Kenyatta and DP Ruto really wants to make sure they win, even if they micro-targeting the public.

Therefore, this will really see more marketing stunts and more that fits the paradigm of the OCEAN quizzes that deliver the target CA sets for Jubilee. CA has said they we’re behind the Trump victory, but there many counterclaims, even some who questions investors of SLC and CA. Even some thinks the Mercer family is behind it and therefore, first supported Cruz campaign, than later Trump. Which the CA did! So they wasn’t as perfect and brilliant since they didn’t help Cruz much.

So we can hope they can promise the same stats and the same services to Kenyatta and Ruto. After looking into it, the matter seem less powerful, but in the future some companies might have the power to really manipulate the electorate. Something, the CA doesn’t have yet, but the fear of might overpower the crowds. Since, this sort of tactic is not yet proven. Even if CA says so, but that is their sales pitch that clearly got Jubilee tricked as well. Peace.

Reference:

Buchanan, Elsa – ‘How Kenya’s Jubilee party is using UK ‘big data’ firm linked to Trump and Brexit victories’ (10.05.2017) link:http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/how-kenyas-jubilee-party-using-uk-big-data-firm-linked-trump-brexit-victories-1620923

Kaltheuner, Frederike – ‘Cambridge Analytica Explained: Data and Elections’ (13.03.2017) link: https://www.privacyinternational.org/node/1440

Patterson, Dan – ‘Cambridge Analytica: The future of political data is in the enterprise’ (13.03.2017) link: http://www.techrepublic.com/article/cambridge-analytica-the-future-of-political-data-is-in-the-enterprise/

Schwartz, Mattathias – ‘FACEBOOK FAILED TO PROTECT 30 MILLION USERS FROM HAVING THEIR DATA HARVESTED BY TRUMP CAMPAIGN AFFILIATE’ (30.03.2017) link: https://theintercept.com/2017/03/30/facebook-failed-to-protect-30-million-users-from-having-their-data-harvested-by-trump-campaign-affiliate/

Wood, Paul – ‘The British data-crunchers who say they helped Donald Trump to win’ (03.12.2016) link: https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/12/the-british-data-crunchers-who-say-they-helped-donald-trump-to-win/

Kenya: U.S. Embassy Statement Regarding the Suspension of Assistance to the Ministry of Health (09.05.2017)

Opinion: President Kiir risks a lot with firing King Malong!

Today, there we’re a shocking news from Juba. As the SPLM/A and the President Salva Kiir Mayardiit who ordered through Presidential decree to sack his Chief of General Staff in the SPLA. That means the Army chief has been sacked in midst of civil-war, as the rising rebellions not only of SPLM/A-IO, but all the other rebels who works to dismantle the government of the President. Therefore this should be not seen as strengthening the Central Government, but more how fragile the powers of the President is at the moment.

President Kiir has fired Lt. General Paul Malong Awan from his position as the Chief of General Staff of the national army SPLA. Through Presidential Decree number 77/2017 he appointed General James Ajongo Mawut as bus replacement. General James Ajongo has been promoted to the rank of 1st Lieutenant General and will assume office tomorrow. He served as the Deputy Chief of Staff in Charge of Administration under 1st Lt Gen. Paul Malong” (The National Courier, 09.05.2017).

SSNA reported this tonight:

Tension is very high here in Juba as soldiers loyal to President are deployed on Juba streets and plainclothes national security agents drive in and around the capital telling people to go inside their houses. The South Sudan News Agency has been told by a senior government official that any politician from Aweil community suspected of being a supporter of the sacked army General has been detained. The official added that nobody knows what will happen as factions of the SPLA loyal to Awan have also blocked roads leading to Awan’s residence, warning, “If he [Awan] refuses to surrender his power peacefully, then Juba could burn.” (SSNA, 09.05.2017).

Truly, the consequences of this move isn’t certain, the motives behind it, if it was giving away guns to Dinka’s, the rumors in late April of a coup against the President. The son of the General who used stashed away government monies in Las Vegas and buying luxurious cars. The reason of fear of rising star and capabilities as General, could also be play the President saw. As he has seen people rise and get ambitions. Therefore, the reason for the sacking isn’t certain, what this can end in, are unsure, but certainly not create more stability. Something the youngest Republic needs. The Sacking will only create more uncertainty as soldiers are loyal to him and maybe not to President Kiir. So who knows what these soldiers might do or whose orders that matters the most? Will they fall in line of Kiir or will they follow Gen. Malong? Will these become rebels or will they still be part of SPLA? 

How this plays out and what is President Kiir’s plan with this actions, that is only in his mind. We can only know that he appointed someone else from the same area. But not the knowledge of what intelligence and reasons for the sudden sacking. If it was for his threats to the Governors of States, who still was stationed in Juba, instead of the State Headquarters. It is not easily to know. What we do know is that this has created tensions in the capitol and the end-game will play out over the next few days. Peace.

Kenya: Ministry of Health – “Health service delivery is on course” (09.05.2017)

Kenya: At the moment, Sugar is not sweet for Jubilee!

The prices of Sugar in Kenya is special experiment, as the taxation on imports of sugar is a 100% and also 16% VAT on the sugar imported. Secondly, the industry is controlled by the state, there been talk of privatization of millers owned and the Kenya Sugar Board who regulate the industry. As well as the Ministry of Agriculture is making sure the output of the farmers are corrected.

Therefore, as the prices worldwide is sinking and going-low, the prices of sugar are going up. This is happening in the months right before election time.

The government must know the industry is struggling as the only private miller Mumias are again on a downward spiral:  Already, the miller has been closed for three months. According to managing director Errol Johnson the closure was meant to fix equipment, which had contributed to the company’s poor performance due to inconsistent maintenance. The closure from April 11 came barely a month after the cash-strapped miller received Sh239 million from the government, as part of the bailout strategy” (BiznaKenya, 2017).

That the Mumias miller proving the big-problems in the Sugar industry, as it has been evident for years. The agricultural output and yields haven’t been the issue alone, it is denial of the state to figure out working changes to the millers, the import and also control it has over it. That the government has the oversight and the insight to the issues, are clearly that the Jubilee haven’t been interested in-changing it, as the benefit of this system. Therefore, President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto hasn’t touched it or done anything else than bailing out Mumias on the last dive of the company. Therefore, the reports shown here. Proves the initial factors to the grand issues and why the prices are sky-rocketing, while the international prices are falling. Take a look!

Barriers for Sugar Productions:

Sugar milling is a high fixed cost business requiring substantial economies of scale in cane crushed to break-even” (…) “Existing relationships of patronage between governments and large milling companies serve to align the incentives of government and millers such that new entrants would find it difficult to compete with incumbents and obtain the same benefits” (Chisanga, Gathiaka, Onyancha & Vilakazi, P: 12, 2014).

Government ownership in the sector remains large, despite higher relative efficiency in the private sector and long term plans for privatization. While some privatization has taken place over the past decade, government-controlled factories held a 37 percent production share, with additional non-controlling shares in other firms. Part of the argument in favor of privatization is the relative efficiency of production in private mills over those controlled by the government” (…) “The local sugar milling market is quite concentrated, and combined with the barriers to trade this suggests that the largest players have significant power over prices. Mumias, the largest sugar company, had a market share of 38 percent of domestically produced sugar in 2011, lower than its typical market share due to cane shortages. Combined with the government-controlled share of the industry, this implies that essentially two entities control at least 75 percent of local production. The shares of local producers in domestic market sales vary quite widely depending on the period, as the volume of imports fluctuates a great deal. For example, Kenya Sugar Board data from the first two quarters of 2012 show importswere approximately 33% of local production” (Argent & Begazo, P: 5-6, 2015).

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, a government (Jubilee) body, reports that 2.2 million Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) have closed shop in kenya over the last five years. These are some of the reasons that inform our opposition to Jubilee. Personally, I think Uhuru and Ruto are fine Kenyans; wonderful husband to their spouses; incredible fathers to their children; and great benefactors to their elite friends, but have terribly failed in the duties of the office of the presidency” (…) “All sectors of Kenyan economy has been negatively affected by the floods of cheap imports, brought into kenya by unscrupulous businessmen connected to those in power, having unbridled freedom to import anything of their choice without paying taxes: From sugar industry; to textile; to agriculture, denying kenya the much needed revenue for development. Over the weekends, the leaders behave like Frank Lucas, donating part of the proceeds from these imports to the same societies they are killing by giving out these import certificates” (Sadat, 2017).

That the government haven’t made sure the industry and financial markets been sufficient is proven with the macro problems in Kenya. The import sanctions together with the stronghold control of certain millers and Kenya Sugar Board, there are patronage and cartels that sets the prices and the payments for the yields. Together with the storage and cane production that is initial to the issues that are there today. That President Kenyatta and DP Ruto hasn’t taken charge and paid amends is the reason for the prices at this point. That the Sugar Barons, Sugar Cartels and Sugar Companies are connected with government is understood as the politicians are taking handouts from them as well.

As the COFEK open letter to Kenyatta said so well and I will end with:

No one in your government can categorically state how much stocks are being held in the strategic grain reserves. Casual talk of wanting quality of the same maize, from the millers lobby, heightens speculation that your government is unwilling to walk the talk on cutting the cost of living. As things stand, it is fair to say that your Government has taken a holiday on consumer protection as cartels take over the all-important food security sector. It follows that your government, is therefore, in breach of Article 46 of the Constitution you swore to protect. Needless to mention, it is a tall order for you to protect and uphold the sovereignty, integrity and dignity of the people of Kenya if they remain hungry – with a single or no meal at all, thanks to the high cost of living. Your government supposedly offers huge subsidies to farmers through farm inputs like fertilizers which do not get to them. It’s the middlemen and cartels who end up smiling to the bank as farmers toil in vain” (COFEK, 2017).

Peace.

Reference:

Argent, Jonathan & Begazo, Tania – ‘Competition in Kenyan Markets and Its Impact on Income and Poverty – A Case Study on Sugar and Maize’ (January 2015)

BiznaKenya – ‘Mumias Sugar to close indefinitely over cash problems’ (08.05.2017) link:https://biznakenya.com/mumias-sugar-close-indefinitely-cash-problems/

Chisanga, Brian; Gathiaka, John; Nguruse, George; Onyancha, Stellah & Vilakazi, Thando – ‘Competition in the regional sugar sector: the case of Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia – Draft paper for presentation at pre-ICN conference, (22 April 2014)

Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) – ‘Cofek open letter to Uhuru Kenyatta on high cost of living’ (02.05.2017) link: http://www.cofek.co.ke/index.php/news-and-media/1718-cofek-open-letter-to-uhuru-kenyatta-on-high-cost-of-living?showall=&start=1

Sadat, Anwar – ‘REVEALED: WHY The ECONOMY is Almost COLLAPSING Under Uhuru Jubilee Regime, GoK’s Kenya Bureau of STATISTICS Exposes Shocking Numbers’ (07.05.2017) link: https://www.kenya-today.com/opinion/revealed-economy-almost-collapsing-uhuru-jubilee-regime-government-body-kenya-bureau-statistics-exposes-shocking-numbers

Kenya: USAID – “Suspension of Activities and Assistance to the Ministry of Health” (08.05.2017)