There are a possible return of UPDF in South Sudan!

It is ironic as the National Dialogue for Peace is supposed to be implemented and worked upon, as the different stakeholders and parties would be listen too. Even if the SPLM/A-IO would send a team, but not Dr. Riek Machar. Still, the government and their army are meeting new rebellions and armies attacking them. The newest is in solidarity to King Malong, as they are this week started the South Sudan Patriotic Army (SSPA), these are starting their warfare in Northern Bahr Al Ghazal under the command of Agany Abdel-Baqi Ayii Akol. So it is more issues growing and more armies working against the SPLM/A-IG. That means so many are rebelling against President Salva Kiir Mayardit. This is worrying, as the National Dialogue are supposed to start talks and consider the different stakeholders. Instead, it seems more like ploy for the center-stage, so the international donors and such see that the central government tries to create peace. Therefore, the newest leaks of possible actions from Uganda inside in South Sudan. Show’ s the relationship between President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and President Salva Kiir Mayardit. As the rumors and speculations of another time of redeployment, show’s that the Ugandan’s aren’t there just for peace, but for battling the demons of Kiir. Take a look!

The official allegedly said that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir wants Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to deploy UPDF’s soldiers to some areas he deems a threat to his government. “There is an active discussion between South Sudan and Uganda over the possibility of Uganda’s military re-intervention in our country. Kiir and Museveni started talking about bringing back UPDF to South Sudan last month [May],” the official reportedly said” (…) “Meanwhile, the source was quoted as saying that Kiir and Museveni were infuriated when some leaders of the African Union, United Nations, and other countries publicly admitted that the August 2015 peace agreement is dead, adding, “Kiir and Taban believe the implementation of the peace agreement is going smoothly.” (…) “President Kiir is only implementing what he wants not the peace. The big problem here is that Taban Deng Gai who is now the First Vice President has no power to change anything Kiir wants and it is a big problem,” the source added. The official described the FVP Gai as ‘a man with no real power’ (Adongo, 2017).

In Juba: Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) offered South Sudan border protection assistance which include a join effort on patrolling Juba-Nimule highway according to Press Secretary of the President, Ateny Wek Ateny. The proposal was made on Friday and more details are yet to be release” (MirayaFM, 11.06.2017).

That the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and their battalions has been inside South Sudan and was vital part of the SPLA’s victory before the Peace Agreement in 2015. This sophisticated and armed army from Uganda played a big part and also helped the SPLA to secure their upper-hand. Therefore, with this intervention, the UPDF and President Museveni will intervene with more force. There are reports of weapons delivery, ammunition and technical help to the SPLA during this calendar year. So they are just adding and making sure the friendship between the Presidents stay.

President Museveni wants to be the king-maker and he has a loyal ally in President Kiir. This is something he wants to keep, therefore he was the only foreign President in the start of the National Dialogue during May 2017. Which I haven’t had much faith in and with reasons. These reasons are that President Museveni prefers battles he can conquer, not discuss or care about talks. Talks only have value to Museveni if he is the bloody genius and the one with the solving answer.

With this in mind, if the UPDF was re-deployed in South Sudan, it wouldn’t be surprising and shocking. That UPDF with battalions inside South Sudan fighting the rebels, the rebels who has gone against SPLM/A-IG in Juba. So that they would re-enter with battalions as someone says they are plannning. This would differ from the peaceful dialogue the SPLM/A and what President Museveni has said of his engagement in the National Dialogue.

The SPLA has so many fronts and so many rebellions, so if it is true and that the UPDF are going into South Sudan. Than, the President Kiir really has issues and needs help with the troubles at hand. President Kiir seem to need the UPDF and the strength of the Ugandan counterparts in the civil-war in South Sudan. Since he hasn’t had time to build the SPLA and army itself. If the SPLA was winning big and had control of the dire situation, they wouldn’t need the UPDF. Therefore, if this report is true, than the Kiir Government and SPLA are really in trouble with the different obstacles in crisis. And President Museveni would be happy to oblige as his army and his state reserves would not say “no” to the request of being ‘paid in full’ by President Museveni. Peace.

Reference:

Adongo – ‘Uganda plans to re-deploy in South Sudan – reports’ (15.06.2017) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2017/06/15/uganda-plans-to-re-deploy-in-south-sudan-reports.html

Communique of the 31st Extra-Ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan (12.06.2017)

#QatarCrisis: KSA continues to pressure Somalia, while the FSG is not caught by the spell!

The Federal Government of Somalia in Mogadishu has not cut their ties to Qatar, after the treat of cutting their aid. As even the meeting in Saudi Arabia haven’t gone well, and the Qatar Foreign Diplomat met with Hassan Ali Khaire yesterday. This proves that still, the Federal Republic of Somalia plans to stay neutral on the matter, even as Somaliland are embargoing and closing their borders for Qatar. This is the current report today!

Harun Maruf Statement today:

Saudi Arabia knows it has no leverage on Somalia, pledges made to Somalia weren’t met, diplomatic relations not strong, source tells me” (…) “UAE does have leverage on Somalia – it’s training military and maritime forces in Mogadishu and Puntland, 1000s Somalis work in UAE” (…) “UAE may not rush to punish Somalia for not cutting ties with Qatar: Somali parliament will soon open deliberations on UAE interests in port and bases” (Harun Maruf, 12.06.2017).

The Middle East Monitor is spelling out that the Somali Government still doesn’t care for the blackmailing the Mogadishu representatives, as the KSA are trying to pay them to cut ties with Qatar. They are not giving-up and wanting them to give in, like Yemen, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Maldives, Djibouti, Tchad and Comoros, who has all cut ties with Qatar. They we’re expecting the same from Somalia, but apparently this is not at the interest of the FSG.

Somali President, Mohammed Abdullah Farmajo, has been offered $80 million in exchange for his agreement to sever diplomatic relations with the State of Qatar, the New Khalij news outlet reported a prominent journalist has revealed. “After two hours of enticement, Farmajo rejected the tempting offer,” journalist Jaber Al-Harimi said” (…) “The sources confirmed that Saudi Arabia threatened to withdraw financial aid to the Somali government unless Somalia change its neutral stand in which it has called for an end to the political dispute between Qatar and the other Arab nations through dialogue via Islamic organisations like the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). The sources added that “ministers of the Somali government returned from Saudi Arabia after meetings with their counterpart were unexpectedly postponed.” It is understood that the rulers of the UAE, with the knowledge of Saudi Arabia, have already sought to persuade Farmajo, who won the presidency despite opposition from the UAE, to change his position” (Middle East Monitor, 2017).

Clearly, the Saudi Arabian diplomat’s have used their preservation to sway the Somali of changing their ways. As it is even reported not as earlier before that President Farmaajo said no to $50m, but $80m. Which is a hefty sum, and could make a big difference. Still it is envelope politics and blackmailing. Not of discussions of mere accords or even guidelines of just behavior, but more of trying to pay them to drop their agreements and deals with Qatar.

So it is not like the KSA does this with tact or honesty, they are more trying to use their petrodollars to silence Mogadishu and their representatives. They are clearly trying to cut of more airspace and one of few neutral partners, who hasn’t taken a direct side. That is why the KSA are working so hard and even offering more and more aid. Not because the KSA cares about Somali life or the Federation, more use it as tool to make more of the airspace and the embargo more effective. We can easily see this and see the reason for the battle of loyalty from Mogadishu, but blackmailing shouldn’t be the way. The KSA should know this, but apparently they don’t. Peace.

Reference:

Middle East Monitor – ‘Somalia turns down $80m to cut ties with Qatar’ (12.06.2017) link: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170612-somalia-turns-down-80m-to-cut-ties-with-qatar/

#QatarCrisis: Eritrean Government statement on that it’s a “timely issue that warrants in active support” (12.06.2017)

#QatarCrisis: Somaliland officially embargo it’s land and sea towards Qatar, while a Qatar delegation have dialogue with FGS in Mogadishu!

The Federal Republic of Somalia are under continued pressure from the Kingdom of Somalia to cut their ties with Qatar. This happens as Qatar and Turkish representatives are in Mogadishu on talks. While the KSA and Gulf Cooperation Council members are adding threats and sweetening the deals with possible pledges of aid if they do cut their ties.

If the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) are accepting to be bamboozled by the KSA pressure, as the Somaliland state has already done. This is happening after the Somali delegation who had a meeting in Saudi Arabia, which didn’t go well.

So the neutrality in the conflict in the gulf is tightening up, as the regional aspects seems dire. Since Yemen, Djibouti as well has cut ties. While Ethiopia haven’t formally done anything, but promising a statement. Eritrea doesn’t want to take stand and stay neutral. While Sudan has sided with Kuwait and wishing to support a dialogue between the Gulf nations.

Today, supports of Somaliland said this: “Somaliland interest first; supporting UAE & Saudi is the right decision for our country while #Somalia “supports” Qatar Turkey & Iran” (Somalilanders, 11.06.2017). The Somliland officials has even made directions today on how the cut ties will be put into effect:

In his post cabinet presser at the presidency in Hargeisa minster Dr Saad Ali Shire the anti Qatar decision was not taken lightly but made after strenuous discussions as pertains the political, economic and diplomatic relations existing between Somaliland and Gulf Countries.

To this effect the foreign minster announced that the cabinet unanimously concurred that

1. The republic of Somaliland fully stands behind the decision taken by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Countries as pertains relations with Qatar.

2. As from 10th June 2017 nobody without explicit authority form the government of Somaliland princess shall be allowed to this countries airspace

3. Somaliland is fully responsible and in charge of its air, land and sea, thence those securing authority for use of such from Somalia shall be liable to due process of the law” (Hasan, 2017).

This is happening while Farah Maalim says: “Farmaajo is restoring Somalia’s image in the international arena. Resist dictation by Gulf fat cats. Maintain Qatar as a friend regardless” (Farah Maallim, 11.06.2017). So the dialogue today with Qatar, bring the internal problems into hot-air. As the Somaliland authorities are defying the Mogadishu government, the federal government of the republic. This is worrying as all parts of Somalia needs each other as the battles between government and Al-Shabaab continues, as well as droughts regions of the nation.

The FGS doesn’t need defiance, it needs collaborations in it’s quest for better future. The Somaliland decision to work on their own, proves that the power of investment in the port are clearly more important than inner works between all the Somali government bodies. Peace.

Reference:

Hasan, Yusuf M. – ‘Somaliland: Government warns against Airspace Transgression, Backs Saudi Against Qatar’ (11.06.2017) link: http://www.somalilandsun.com/politics1/government/10531-somaliland-government-warns-against-airspace-transgression,-backs-saudi-against-qatar

South Sudan Diaspora activists condemned civilians killing in the ambush (10.06.2017)

June 10, 2017 (KAMPALA)-The International Youth for Africa has strongly condemned the killing of civilians along the Juba-Nimule road, and urges the South Sudanese rebels and pro-government to desist from civilians attack. Ter Manyang Gatwech, an executive director of (IYA), for the South Sudanese base human right organization in Kampala has blamed the rebels for killing four civilians in the ambush of Friday.

However, the rights body has called on the Sudan People Liberation Movement –In Opposition to stop attacking civilian convoy escort.

“IYA condemned in strongest term possible. Those who claimed the responsibility need to be taken to the court. Both SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO committed a lot of human rights abuse this including arbitrary detention, torture, killing, forced and disappears,” he said.

IYA is urging both the government of South Sudan and the rebels allied to former first vice president Riek Machar to sit down and iron out their differences, through peaceful and recommitted to the 2015 August peace agreement.

“A political agreement should be the first to stop the war then follow by the National Dialogue in the context of reconciliation, forgiveness and accountability.

The venue, should be two phases a constitutional round table to include political parties and main stakeholders, Opposition, Church, youth, women, and community leaders both interior and exterior,” he said.

However, he urged the regional leaders and the international community to pressure both sides to accept peace if it’s forceful mean.

#QatarCrisis: Somaliland cut ties with Qatar, and rumors that the Federal Government of Somalia plans the same!

The Qatar crisis continues as the diplomatic meeting announced yesterday, that the Federal Republic of Somalia where together with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). So they were reports that the KSA would stop giving aid to the Federal Government of Somalia. This would really hurt the Somalian government. Therefore, this meetings was really crucial for the Somalian government and their funding. This is something the KSA counterparts know. That is why the reports from the KSA trip hasn’t gone as the Somali representatives should expect.

Reports from the credible Harun Maruf reports: “Somalia ministers return to Mogadishu after KSA trip; reports suggest they were given a “cold shoulder” but ministers insist it “went well” (…) “Diplomatic sources: Saudi Arabia asked Somalia to either cut ties with Qatar or downgrade relations; Somalia rejected both propositions” (Harun Maruf, 09.06.2017).

While Somaliland has now sided with KSA and UAE. “Foreign Minister Saad Ali Shire made the announcement at Somaliland’s Presidential Palace, following an emergency cabinet meeting. Many expected Somaliland would side with the Saudi-led coalition, as the UAE was granted permission to build a military base in Somaliland in February, and has close relations with the Government of the Republic of Somaliland” (The National Somaliland – ‘Breaking: Somaliland sides with Saudi Arabia and UAE against Qatar’, 10.06.2017).

So while earlier this week the Federal Republic of Somalia called for dialogue on the 7th June as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) diplomatic squabble in the gulf-states that they are exporting to add pressure other places. This as Djibouti already has sided. Sudan has sided with the dialogue of Kuwait, while Eritrea doesn’t want to be involved. Ethiopia has invested in Djibouti, so that might be their way into this. Therefore, the report from Fana is clearing the way for what they will do: “Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn held talks today with Saudi Arabia’s Royal Court Adviser Ahmed bin Aqeel Al-Khateeb on issues of common interest. The two sides discussed about ways of further strengthening mutual ties”(Fana Broadcasting Corporate – ‘PM meets Saudi, S Sudanese envoys’, 10.06.2017).

That Somalia is under fire, as even one of their states are now partial and has taken sides, it is not unexpected as Somaliland already has agreements of running their ports through a UAE run company. This was about to come, but when it was happening was about to arrive. Now it has and the Mogadishu government has to decide, as their partners in Hargeisa. While Ethiopia, Djibouti and Yemen has taken sides with KSA, UAE and Bahrain. It is now only Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia who has talked about needing dialogue between the Gulf nations.

The politics of the Horn of Africa has been implicated in Qatar crisis and in a heavy way. The Somalia representatives even was back-slapped in Saudi Arabia, even if they don’t want to say so. The threats of cutting of aid and making it hard not to cut from Qatar. Proves how far the KSA will go to settle the stand with smaller and poorer nations. They will bait them to even make it hard not to cut the ties to Qatar, as the funding and support of the GCC allies will be suspended as well.

You can wonder when the GCC partners will ploy into South Sudan, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Tanzania and Kenya. They are the next in line. We just have to wait and see. The UAE and KSA will certainly want Somalia to cut ties as Somaliland have already done. Pea

#QatarCrisis: KSA Blackmailing Somalia and while Eritrea & Ethiopia wants to stay ‘Neutral’!

Today, the on-going crisis between the Qatar and its neighbors continue. That United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The diplomatic spat continues. As the nations in region also uses their foreign partners and development countries to put pressure on Qatar. The newest victim is the Federal Republic of Somalia.

Today in a meeting with Saudi Diplomates, the National Representatives from Somalia was meet with this hostile message: “Cut ties with Qatar & we’ll give you what ever you want”. Also, since the Federal Government of Somalia hasn’t delivered on that wish or command by the KSA. They have ultimately done this: “Saudi Arabia refuses to give any financial support to Somalia govt until it cut ties with Qatar”. This come within short hours that the Somalia Republic statement talks of wishing for peace between their Arab partners. Clearly, the KSA doesn’t accept that sort of regime and arrangement. Therefore, the Somalian representatives and also state who needs financial support. That is why this sort of reaction show’s the power of their financial reach and they want to impose their aid with control of the foreign affairs of Somalia.

While the meeting has lead to this relationship with Somalia. They have not tried to change the minds of Ethiopia or Sudan. Since their reach there isn’t as powerful as they could be in Somalia. That proves the power of petrodollars and the wealth of the Saudi Kingdom. Ethiopia has also taken a neutral stance, but has not been hit with pressure yet.

Ethiopian Statement:

The Ethiopian foreign ministry has yet to comment, there is a strong feeling among officials in the ministry that they are caught in the middle of a bewildering regional dispute, according to sources. “Ethiopia is acting with great caution and it will come up with a statement urging for dialogue,” a senior diplomat told Ethiopia Observer. Ethiopia’s dilemma is that it trying to develop political and economic ties with Qatar, while also trying to develop strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries” (Fantahun, 2017).

While the Eritrea statement says this:

Eritrea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release said that in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are requested to contact the Eritrean diplomats to cut ties to Qatar. Policies that Eritrea has been completely rejected it. Eritrea said the Qatar share a good relationship, and it is not practicable to apply due to its relationship to the cut. Policies of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Eritrea’s president has called for a negotiated end to the tension between Qatar and countries in conflict” (VOASomali – link: https://www.voasomali.com/a/3893751.html).

So if they do this to, than the KSA might come with similar threats and pressure as they have now done to Somalia. Certainly if it wasn’t for President Omar Al-Bashir talks with Kuwait and their dialogue, the KSA might have given him a decree too. Certainly, the KSA and their allies are using their leverage and ability to oil-money to sway people to go against Qatar. Peace.

Reference:

Fantahun, Arefayne – ‘Ethiopia and Sudan remain neutral in Saudi-Qatar rift’ (07.06.2017) link: http://www.ethiopiaobserver.com/2017/06/ethiopia-and-sudan-remain-neutral-in-saudi-qatar-rift/

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – A Brief Response to Taban’s Attempt to Distort Facts (09.06.2017)

South Sudan: Kiir not attending IGAD Extraordinary Summit on 12th, because of advice from close associates!

President Kiir’s spokesman, Ateny Wek Ateny, said Kiir will not attend the IGAD summit. “He [President Kiir] will not attend the IGAD summit. The president has already sent a letter of apology through the minister in his office,” said Ateny when contacted by Radio Tamazuj” (…) “There are no reasons, but the president is attending to other things here in South Sudan. The team that will represent the president has not yet been formed,” he added” (Radio Tamazuj, 2017).

While several sources on the ground is saying that the negotiator and the one foreign leader legitimizing the National Dialogue of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) or the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Government (SPLM/A-IG). That are advised by the Uganda counterpart Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, which has even different parts of SPLM to discuss and find a common-ground for peace. That he would advice President Salva Kiir Mayardit wouldn’t surprise as Museveni has helped out in the past.

The other one giving advice on skipping the IGAD summit is the First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng Gai, who has also said he shouldn’t attend. This means that the core problems of South Sudan would be discussed without any key leadership of the conflict at the 12th June 2017 in Addis Ababa. This would mean their decisions in Ethiopia would be outsiders looking in. As the SPLM-IO or other rebels wouldn’t be part of it, neither would the SPLM/A-IG. That means the two warlords and counterparts in the conflict would not be parts of it.

While most likely one of the one giving advice and being there to direct the talks are President Museveni, who will come with all sorts amendments and insights to secure that Kiir stays in power. That is the most likely opportunity, as the SPLM/A-IG will be in conflict with the rest of the IGAD over the grand-issues, as they will feel the fire and feel instructed to act by foreign powers.

Therefore the words of prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba wrote a piece called: “What do we expect of the IGAD Summit”, which he wrote on the 5th June 2017: “What then is new in the situation of South Sudan necessitating IGAD summit? Recently, Dr. Riek Machar has a rare opportunity to address, in a video teleconference, the members of the UN Security Council. This drew the wrath of the government of South Sudan in the person of Taban Deng Gai, the de factor Kiir’s first vice president. This UN Security Council’s gesture is welcome. However, it alone could not have triggered the regional reaction in form of a summit. The regime’s arrogant stubbornness and lack of concern for the deteriorating social, economic and political crisis seem to be paying off. The Archbishop Tutu Fellows of the African Leadership Institute on 25 May 2017 wrote to the IGAD Plus leaders urging them to act. A visiting US Senator threatened to stop US aid to South Sudan until the government stopped the war. These political developments could have freaked the regional leaders’ conscience to prompt a summit” (…) “A dilemma confronts the IGAD Summit. Whether to order a new political process to resolve the conflict or resuscitate ARCISS. Both options require the presence and participation of Dr. Riek Machar, the SPLM/A (IO). This puts the regional leaders in an awkward situation with President Salva Kiir and President Yuweri Museveni, who swore to prevent Dr. Riek Machar becoming leader of the Republic of South Sudan. In order to save face and avoid commitment to another political process or the resuscitation of ARCISS, President Salva Kiir might delegate Taban Deng Gai, who definitely and for obvious reasons will put up a strong resistance to both options. Taban Deng is determined to keep Dr. Riek Machar away from the region. In this President Museveni ensures him the absolute support. This will bring the summit to a dead end” (Prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba, 05.06.2017).

So if President Museveni and FVP Deng Gai advised President Kiir to not attend, because the dilemma of not only FVP Deng Gai role, but also the weakness of keeping Dr. Riek Machar away from South Sudan. With this the stalemate will continue as the SPLM/A-IG are continuing their skirmishes and the battles that continue to destroy the core republic, like agriculture and living conditions, as the refugees are fleeing to Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo and in Uganda.

More will come, but certainly Museveni is really interfering in the crisis in the Republic in a big-way, when he wants his friend to have his power and his mates around. Peace.

Reference:

Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan’s Kiir declines to attend IGAD summit’ (08.06.2017) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudan-s-kiir-declines-to-attend-igad-summit