The Announced Double Swearing-in (In) Uganda on the 12th of May; Doubling down on the days ahead…

m7, besigye

There are circulated and planned demonstrations against the National Resistance Movement and their “elected” government during the General Election of 2016 and was announced and declared by Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu on the 20th February. That they waited for the Supreme Court Petition of Amama Mbabazi that they cascaded and destroyed by all means. Just the same way the Uganda Police Force went after Democratic Party Members, FDC supporters and leadership in the days after to destroy evidence of the altering and rigging of the election.

The Reason why Uganda People’s Congress haven’t done or had any issues after the Election is because their leader Jimmy Akena have done deals with the NRM and even had his own people in the party campaign for the NRM in certain areas. Therefore they have been left in peace as they in solidarity have concocted an campaign trail together with the NRM, as well as the Party had no Presidential Candidate, which is also an extended token to the NRM and their Executive.

So with all of that mind, with the electoral climate and the electoral process that have been farce, where the South Sudanese rented troops was around in the nation during the election days, together with the army and anti-riot police stationed on the streets while the election and polling where held. Where the ballots and pre-ticking extensions and the certainty of Police involvement in central parts of the electoral process, then you know that the general election was neither free nor fair for the people and the citizens hadn’t their vote, they got the people the Executive had selected, not the ones the people wanted to have elected.

NRM 13.11.15 Omunge

Elected by the people is whole stage of difference than the Selected from the Executive. That is power of the President and the president that has presided since 1986. The man who does not believes in the will of his own people, because he selected the leaders for them, if they don’t show loyalty towards him. He is the only man with a vision, as well have heard so clearly and everybody else is not able to run the country. I am sure he has stalled the procurement of the Cobalt 60 Teletherapy Machine at the Uganda Cancer Institute to facilitate more cows to one of his ranches.

In this days and age, the reason for extra haste and other meetings at the State House is that the Russian and French investors in the Oil Development that is the key to new ways of extorting the state, as the Executive have done for 3 decades. The reason why the deals of the Pipeline between Ugandan Government, Tanzanian counterparts and the Total E&P Uganda is uncertain, as much as the drilling agreements in Lake Albert by Total, China National Oil Offshore Corporation (CNOOC) and the others who have gotten rights to do so. But, that is not important as the exotic dancing at the clubs of Kabalagala in the Suburb of Kampala is the real danger of the country. Just ask the wise-guy Hon. Jim Muhwezi, he has the vision for the sodomy of the nation and the danger of dancing!

Uganda Campaign Poster 2016 Funny

The hesitation also of the final days of the 9th Parliament to fix themselves some more cash without questions while stalling the budget talks for next budget year of 2016/17 that was supposed to voted-in Parliament; but the Members of Parliament wanted to be sure of a pay-rise for the Nobel duty of being Selected by the Executive. The Executive knows this and let it go, because he knows if he needs anything done he can just give them little sweet brown-envelopes and they will let him be giddy.

So with that all in mind, the planned demonstrations, the running and planning building a petroleum industry behind closed chambers, the amazement of last-pitched laws of the 9th Parliament and last saga of late the speakership of the 10th Parliament.

Uganda-parliament-2

10th Parliament like the 9 Parliament before needs a speaker and people are fighting for it, the Incumbent Kadaga believes she is the one for it again, the deputy Oulanya believes it his turn and other are throwing in their vote for confidence of being it. The NRM have no plans of letting a opposition leading the Parliament minutes and the organizing the structure of the lawful assembly of the land. That cannot happen, because the NRM and the Executive need to work in own speed and own liking as the Executive is the final word as he fix the votes and run the land. Therefore his last word on who becomes it and who is dismissed, just like Amama Mbabazi and Gilbert Bukenya have been dismissed by him for their ambition, so if the speakers become the same; I am sure he will do it again with force of the NRM CEC and the screaming tone of NRM Secretary General Justine Kasule-Lumumba. Be noted, that will happen, because he keeps people hungry and when they see a moment of eating more than expected then he hit back.

As we note the days and coming days. The tension of the faulted election will unfold and the questions will remain at what force the Police and Army will address the men and woman who walks to demonstrate, and how will the rest of the days between the 5th May and to the 12th May go. There are the historical pains of the Walk to Work where the tear-gas and the crackdown of it. The Police have ever since been monitoring and also spying on the opposition with their Political Police and Commission that been vicious on the dismantling the hopes of the opposition.

Besigye 041115

So how it might go is hard to predict as we can hope of the grand show-up of the Nomination Day around Kampala, if so then the Police Force cannot take them all and wind-down the demonstration with water-cannons, live-bullets and tear-gas. This I say because this is the tactics of the Police Force, even take Helicopters and Armoured Personnel Carriers and Mambas filled with officers to control with harassment of the fellow citizens. So the Police will want to dissolve the matters and the will of the people with the tarnish of civil disobedience. That is what I am worried about as the loss of life and the loss of will after 30 years of oppression.

And I have not even mentioned the started wrangles between the councillors, KCCA administration of the selected men and woman of President Museveni and the elected Lord Mayor that they want to rid-off for the second time. Because the Mzee believes all of the opposition supporters of Kampala are cockroaches or rats, depending on the way he does not talk about crash or kill opposition as proven in the Supreme Court Election Petition of 2016. But, hey maybe I am wrong. You can do the fact check on the words used by the His Excellency during and after the Election Day.

Museveni 031115

So even if Don Museveni gets President Mugabe, President Kenyatta, President Kagame, President Kabila, President Kiir, President Al-Bashir, President Sheik Mohamud, President Magafuli, President Gulleh, Prime Minster Hailemariam Desalegn and so on. They will surely grace him at Kololo and surely nobody will attack the car of President Mugabe this time. As they did last time he entered a roundabout on the road towards Kampala from Entebbe International Airport. Surely the men and woman, who grace the Kololo, will either be the few die-hards of NRM, the actually paid for the day Crime Preventers and the ones that are earning on the National Resistance Movement. Even some ambassadors and other pleasantries will show-up. Even some of the singers like Bebe Cool and Jose Chameleone will be there to sing-a-song. So you are warned.

The levels and magnitude of it all is how the world will perceive the days and how the Police Force will act towards the Opposition. How the mentality and the grandest approach, how the rhetoric and words from the ruling party will also show the TRUE state of affairs.

MuseveniQuote

The international reactions and the real surface of how they will deal with it; as we know the American Africa Corp have recently given more technical gear and training to the Ugandan Army in Somalia. Not that makes headlines or be questioned as the President Obama have talked about leaders who never leaves, but at the same time gives handouts to the same men he critic. That is saying something, but acting differently and is hard to fully follow and accept.

It is in this view that the 12th May will show who is loyal and who his friends are, this will show how powerful and loyalty towards the 30 year ruling President Museveni. The Besigye move is deteriorate and also show that the legitimate Executive are something Museveni is not, not at this point and time. Therefore he uses all tactics to oppression and harassment of the opposition. That I fear also will transpire in the coming days as the Police Force, UPDF Special Force Command and the Flying Squad will surface to violate the rights of fellow citizens of Uganda without any consideration to the violence or the extended freedoms they take away to enforce the rule of their Executive. That is the sad prospects I envision, but if the people show up on the 5th May 2016 as they did on the Presidential Nomination day in November 2015, then the Police Force cannot “kill” or dissolve the demonstration. They have to let it go, because the majority will control the streets even when the Anti-Riot Police have to lay low as they can’t brawl with every person on the street. They can only take a small piece of the population, as they are a minority, but a minority with weapons.

Kampala 16.11.15 UPF

Let’s hope that the oppressive regime will get a peaceful shock and that the preparation for the Swearing-In at Kololo Independence Ground will be shackled and feel the heave of the population tiredness of their Executive and his regime. Peace.  

The Battle for the Oil the Coast; Double pipelines seems to be the END-game: Kenyan on their own, while Uganda picks route through Tanzania!

Kenyatta Ruto

There was not too far ago when the Government of Kenya was dreaming in their wild pipedream to advance their own ideas and manage to hook the Ugandan Government so they wouldn’t continue with the progressive agreement with Tanzanian counter-parts. In the end it seems like the waves are long gone. The wind from Lake Albert never seemed to turn.

LAPSSET_South-Sudan_Kenya_Pipeines-and-Lamu_Refinery_Map

We had to wait until 23rd April 2016 to be reassured that the President Museveni and his NRM could not be persuaded to be a continued or locked into the LAPSSET:   Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport. So it would be from Hoima, Western Uganda into the Northern Kenya bypass into the prospected lines would go there both from Ethiopia and South Sudan down to the shores and bays of Lamu Port.

Instead Uganda have continued and promised to honour the 2015 Memorandum of Understanding with Tanzania the Uganda–Tanzania Crude Oil Pipeline (UTCOP); that goes from Hoima or Lake Albert through the Tanzanian nation down to the shores of the Tanga Port. This is also because of the agreements and assurance of both governments and also the new Oil-Drilling companies in Uganda like Total and ENI. They have also spoken their peace and does not feel safe as where the Pipeline goes through uncertain areas of Kenya.

Tanzania-Uganda-Pipeline_0

So there will be two pipelines and in close reach and also with distinguished end-game; as the economic prospects are changed, the rates for oil-transport will be lost in the sight of Kenya. The Kenyan cannot now have future prospects of the oil-rates and jobs as a Pipeline gives. They will have cough-up the funding and most likely more borrowed money for the grand infrastructure.

The Ugandan will use funds and borrow monies to fund the pipeline-building and also give tax-payers and jobs in Tanzania. The rates by just transporting the oil from A-B will be a good tax-base for the Tanzanian Government. President Kenyatta hoped that his close relationship would help him and also with his Deputy Ruto also campaigning for Museveni to give something back. Seems like that didn’t help as the President Kikwete already have sweetened the tea and offered something that also helps to calm down the Oil-Drilling investors and their envelopes.

Keter Citizen TV

CS Keter of Kenya must be disappointed as his detained moment in Tanga Port came to nothing and the KDF forces inside Somalia are the reason for the fallout. Though I doubt that is the main reason. That is the diplomatic reason from the Ugandan Government. Ugandan Government and NRM-Regime is about money. They are all about the money, therefore the non-accountability and non-open tax-regime. The Ugandan Government would never say that is the main reason, but if Total, ENI and CNOOC words and tax-base is the current controlling the reasons for President Museveni. As he wants them on his side; so he can have secret deals with the Oil-Companies and keep the low-key taxes; not to talk about the un-disclosed agreements between them and the government of Uganda.

Therefore I am not surprised I think they only went into the talks in Kenya to please their neighbour and trading-partner as the relationship have soften over the last few months and the President of Kenya and President of Uganda have cherished more time together. As President Museveni have played the big-man and asked for suitors while waiting for the words from the Oil-Companies. The excuse of not taking Kenya is certainly been given by the Oil-Companies as the Ugandan President will only take the highest rates and the lowest fees for the construction. We can see that the borrowed monies that will be used should have low-charges and be clearly not too bad to GDP or the national inflation.

Kenyatta Museveni

Still, the matters remain how the relationship really is between Uganda and Kenya. As they have fought over the little Migingo Island and chicken export fiasco. An the Recently also covered a squabble over Yellow Fever Notes to give to Border Patrols to be relieved and be allowed to Enter into Kenya from Uganda. So with the decision to abandon all hope for Kenya and totally give way to Tanzania; will be hurting the pride of the Harambee in the coming weeks. Especially since the Kenyan has tried to get the Ugandan’s to use their port instead. This backfired and didn’t work.

I hope that this doesn’t stop the other Northern Corridor Integration Projects (NCIP) as of the Standard Gauge Railway and others that can connect the nations and bring softer transport of people and goods between the East African nations. Certainly the matter is at hand and the justification would be “terrorism” as why the pipeline didn’t get extended. Though I believe it is much more to say “cash money” and in general the black gold revenues.

This here will certainly be uncovered over time and the real reason will show-up by the Al-Shabab is a deflection and we know the gig is up. Peace.

World Food Program Tanzania – Situation Report #32 (30.03.2016)

WFP Tanzania Burundi Ref. March 30. P1WFP Tanzania Burundi Ref. March 30. P2

The Battle for the Ugandan oil to the Coast; As the Tanzanian and the Kenyan suitors try to bait Mzee

Oil-pipeline

There is the time and day where the President Museveni walks into Tanzania speaks to the new President Magefuli and promise more money for sustainable pipeline through Tanzania down to the coast. Later in the month he travels to Nairobi and meet President Kenyatta, and promises to ship the oil in pipelines through Kenya down to the Coast.

As both Big-Men do their bidding and promises quality lines in safe pastures with clean operations and good relationship between the countries and their businesses. While Tanzania was first in this time around, the Kenyan counterparts would not be worse.

The Ugandan Government have gone back-and-fourth promised Kenyan government before and made plans fitting the Kenyan perspective, so early in March after the general Election, the President met with President Magufuli seemed to be a grand deal, as the Tanzanian said they could start with building as early as August 2016 if the Ugandan Gov. was ready for it.

Tanzania-Uganda-Pipeline_0

Now today it seemed as the Ugandan government have gone away from the Tanzanian agreement from early in month. As the Bunyoro oil fields will build pipelines from there down to Kenyan coast. A gentleman’s agreement between Uhuru and Yoweri, as they have worked together during election time, with funds and that President Museveni wants to give something back and show loyalty to the Kenyan President.

Tanzania and Uganda had even signed a framework agreement for the crude pipeline on the 12th of October in 2015. That seemed just to be a plan and not official document as the President of Uganda, seem now to be keen to repay his fellow mate in Kenya.

We never know is if this an reaction the EAC Inter-Burundian Dialogue of Peace between the Burundian stakeholders where President Museveni has lost his position as the opposition in Burundi claimed he was biased towards President Nkurunziza and wanted somebody else, as the African Union and EAC let former Tanzanian President Mpaka take the key role, as the mediation will be led by him, not the Ugandan President. That must sting a bit to man who wants to be the grand King of East Africa and overrule all estates and areas at all cost. That might be why they scrapped the agreement with Tanzania when it comes to the Pipeline.

hoima-e28093-lokichar-e28093-lamu-route

This here will be proof of who wants to be the cadre for the monies that Ugandan President could bring and how far they will go to eat from his hands. As the President plays the field on both home-grounds and hope to gain the most for himself for as little as possible, while serving loyalty to the ones he picks. The partly agreement that was written during last quarter of 2015 seems too premature, as the joint statement today assume that the Kenyan government takes the last straw. Especially with the knowledge of the funding of President Museveni campaign parts of those funds to his war-chest came from the mountains of Kenya and not from Tanzania.

Because a man like President Museveni is more about his own will than the best for the oil or the best for the companies involved, because he want to be sure that the decision is benefitting him and his loyal cadres. Not anybody else, therefore he plays with Tanzanian and Kenyan officials until he gets the best deal for him, even if that strands the already made agreement with Tanzania, as the Kenyan suitors want to make sure that he gets the sugar and the tea he needs to sign a joint deal with them, even keep the Migingo island, as the money from pipeline can bring wealth and create jobs in Kenya, more than a few fishes and stones in the middle of lake. Peace.   

Joint Communique: 17th Ordinary Summity of the East African Community Heads of State

17 EAC Joint Communique P117 EAC Joint Communique P217 EAC Joint Communique P317 EAC Joint Communique P417 EAC Joint Communique P5

Press Release: Uganda and Tanzania sign Crude Oil Export Pipeline Framework (12.10.2015)

UgandaTan121015 P1UgandaTan121015 P2

Press Release: Standard Chartered Bank Hong Kon to use the English Court in an attempt to outflank the Tanzanian Courts in VIP-Standard Chartered Dispute (09.06.2015)

TanVIP.P1TanVIP.P2TanVIP.P3TanVIP.P4