RDC: Olenga Nkoy au Front pour Diviser le Rassemblement (20.02.2017)

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Opinion: The Kabila Government will use all excuses in the book to postpone the next Presidential elections; because the elite and Kabila fear for losing it all!

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Even if the stars stop to rotate around the planet earth, still there will be another excuse for Joseph Kabila to continue to be the Executive of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Kabilists will defend him even as his FARDC kills civilians, that the M23 are returning into the North Kivu or even as ADF-NALU are doing their thing to. There will be all sort of excuses like the recent ones!

“Budget Minister Pierre Kangudia said the cost of organising the poll, which was said to be $1.8bn (£1.5bn), was too expensive. Last year the government and the opposition agreed that new elections would be held by the end of 2017. President Joseph Kabila’s final mandate ran out in November 2016” (BBC News, 2017).

So it isn’t just the sudden violence in Kasai-Oriental, Nord-Kivu or other province that creates issues, there are also the budget and fiscal issues. Therefore, you know that with a giant nation, it comes with great cost to hold an election. So the state needs sufficient fiscal power and funds to hold an election. That should be possible to save up to during the recent term under President Kabila, which knew clearly that his term was over in November 2016. Still, he is sitting in power and suspended the election to hold him in power. So the use of lacking funds together with the direct aid for elections in 2016 came also from United Kingdom and other nations, so that the DRC could hold a Presidential election. Still, the Kabila government saw no reason to hold it last year.

Therefore they had to explain it further:

“The Congolese election commission said in October 2016 that it would need until the end of July 2017 to update its voter register in the massive country, which has a population of almost 80 million, according to the World Bank. The commission said that elections would take another 504 days to organize after that, suggesting a vote would not be held until at least 2018” (…) “Kabila has been in power in Congo since 2001, when his father and predecessor as president, Laurent-Desire Kabila, was assassinated. Presidents are allowed to serve a maximum of two consecutive terms in Congo, which has never experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960” (Gaffey, 2017).

So it isn’t just now the funds, it’s also apparent the amount of people and registration of them. The state doesn’t have time or ability to know, they could do so for the first two terms of Kabila, when he was legitimately elected after he was selected in 2001, but now he is out of time and needs to buy all the time of the world. Since he worries about his fate when leaves office. The President Kabila fears for the wealth and his businesses, as well as the business of his sister and the rest of his elite. Kabila fears for losing out on the mining business and the agreements made while he was president. He and his elite could lose them or get caught out of the loop, as a new President and his regime might even suspend these agreements as they are not paying the sufficient taxes or even being transparent enough.

So Kabila wants to buy all the time possible, use all sort of tricks out of his sleeve, even sell his wife to a public scandal if he has too. Already killing innocent and creating chaos to sufficiently use force and say that the regions needs peace before the state can hold an election. As the MONUSCO and the FARDC cannot contain all these rebels and militants that spring up when the President needs them. As President Kabila could create peace when he got into power, he wants to be able to show that so you know you need him!

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Kabila regime will not go silent and not go easy, there are too much money at stake and too much to lose. Just like the Wall Street will not accept to be totally controlled or regulated, the same is with these autocratic leaders like Kabila. Kabila sees no reason to disclose his companies or his wealth, neither the connections he has with the export industries. Therefore he fears the undisclosed monies and estates might show his embezzlement and corrupt behaviour in power. Surely, he will inter-connected in ways that is similar in other weaker institutional states like Angola or others, where the Executive and Elite has direct-cut the deals and therefore has skimmed of the deals with international businesses.

So now that the term has ended and the gig is up, Kabila and his comrades’ fears for their live, their pocket and the will of the people, if it fails the house-of-cards could vanish. That is painful and the truth, as the trusts and the companies could get frozen accounts and the business agreements could be broken for breach of lawful activity. Therefore the Kabila regime doesn’t want their accounts to be ransacked and their wealth to be lost. They have been eaten for over a decade and do not want to lose the gravy-train.

Kabila knows all of this and therefore use all methods and all of ways to politically keep his executive position and mandate that he has had. Therefore Kabila uses all tactics and all reasoning to keep the election out of his way and the Republic’s way. Because of the risk of losing his riches and spoils, the nation and republic might be poor, but he is wealthier than GOD. Therefore Kabila doesn’t want to looked into or show the records of transactions to the public.

Kabila fears this and his elite around him don’t want him to fall, because their future and their riches is also at stake. Therefore they accept his misuse of funds and army to silence opposition. That Kabila detain and sends opposition into exile. He does it to silence the ones that show the truth of the Kabila regime. Kabila cannot accept the truth, because the truth will reveal deals and agreements that will throw shades into mixed state regulations and the Kabila elite, which we know is there but to an extent that we never thought was possible.

If he had been a peaceful and honest President, he wouldn’t fear to step down and give the mantle to the next candidate. President Kabila would not use this ways to get rid of the possibility for another election if they weren’t afraid of the consequences of what is ahead. The Consequence of what can happen with him and his estates. Certainly the uncertain attitude and fortitude to stay, proves that there is too much that the current leadership doesn’t want to show the citizens, the republic and the world. Peace.

Reference:

BBC News – ‘DR Congo election: ‘We cannot afford $1.8bn cost’, says minister’ (16.02.2017) link: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38988632

Gaffey, Conor – ‘CONGO: ELECTIONS IN 2017 ARE TOO EXPENSIVE, SAYS BUDGET MINISTER’ (16.02.2017) link: http://europe.newsweek.com/congo-elections-2017-too-expensive-says-budget-minister-557461?rm=eu

RDC: Communique du Gouvernement/Avis d’un expert: Manipulation d’imagies de Tshimbulu l’Internaute Richard Mudoza de Bruxelles (Schaarbeek) – (20.02.2017)

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RDC: Communiqué de presse de la Dynamique de l’Opposition Politique (19.02.2017)

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RDC: Communique du Gouvernement – “Sur le film des militants du Kasai Oriental” (18.02.2017)

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RDC: Communique du Rassemblement par rapport aux images diffusées par les réseaux sociaux d’un carnage perpétré par les éléments des FARDC au Kasai (18.02.2017)

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RDC: Declaration Politique du G7 (16.02.2017)

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Joint statement on the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the African Union, the United Nations, the European Union and the International Organization of La Francophonie (16.02.2017)

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ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, February 16, 2017 – The African Union (AU), the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU) and the International Organization of La Francophonie (IOF) are increasingly concerned by the continuing impasse in the dialogue among the political stakeholders in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) related to the implementation modalities of the 31 December political agreement.

The four partner organizations note that six weeks after agreeing on the modalities of a transition period leading to the holding of peaceful and credible elections by December 2017, the parties are yet to conclude discussions on the effective implementation of the agreement. This situation has the potential to undermine the political goodwill that led to the signing of the 31 December agreement.

In this context, the four partner organizations call on all stakeholders in the DRC, including the presidential majority and the opposition, to redouble, in good faith, their efforts towards a speedy conclusion of the ongoing talks.

The four partner organizations reaffirm the need for all parties to rally behind the mediation efforts led by the Conférence épiscopale nationale du Congo (CENCO), and recall that the full and timely implementation of the 31 December agreement is critical in upholding the legitimacy of the transitional institutions until elections.

RDC: MONUSCO strongly condems the persistance violence in the Kasai Provinces (11.02.2017)

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Kinshasa, 11 February 2017 – MONUSCO is concerned about the persistent conflict in the Kasais which is marked by violent atrocities committed by the Kamuina Nsapu militia including their recruitment and use of child soldiers whilst targeting symbols and institutions of State authority as well as the disproportionate use of force by the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC) in their response to the situation. Particularly, since 9 February 2017, there have been ongoing clashes between Kamuina Nsapu militia and Congolese Security Forces within the area of Tshimbulu (160 Kilometers South East of Kananga) with unconfirmed reports of between 30 to 50 deaths resulting from these clashes.

Maman S. Sidikou, the Special Representative of the Secretary General and Head of MONUSCO, strongly condemns the actions of the Kamuina Nsapu militia in recruiting and using child soldiers as well as their acts of violence against the State. He expresses his concern about repeated reports of the disproportionate use of force by the FARDC and offers the Mission’s support to a credible investigation of this regrettable situation. He regrets the deaths and injuries suffered in these clashes and calls upon the Congolese Security Forces to act in line with acceptable standards of national and international laws in their response to the situation.

Since the outbreak of this crisis about six months ago, MONUSCO has sought to effectively support the Congolese authorities in addressing the situation at national and provincial levels. In addition to several engagements by the Special Representative at the political and security levels, the Mission has reinforced its civilian and uniformed personnel presence in the area. The Mission has also deployed one of its Mobile Monitoring Response Team in the area (Tshikapa, Dibaya, Bunkode, Tshimbulu and Luiza) to possibly prevent, investigate and document human rights violations in line with its mandate.

Note to Editors:

Following the decision of the Security Council in early 2014, MONUSCO redeployed most of its resources to Eastern DRC in 2014. There was also a drastic reduction of military and civilian personnel affecting the Mission’s presence in Kananga given the improved security situation at the time. Presently, the Mission has since December 2016, deployed a Military Company of soldiers in Kananga (Kasai central) with the task of protecting the Mission’s personnel and assets as well as carrying out Protection of Civilians.

Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

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The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

  • Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
  • A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
  • IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
  • Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
  • A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.