Ethiopia: Tigray Region Humanitarian Update – Situation Report, 7 December 2020 (07.12.2020)

Ethiopia: Very Concerned by Situation in Ethiopia’s Tigray Province, Secretary-General Calls for Quickly Restoring Rule of Law, Public Services Delivery (07.12.2020)

The following statement was issued today by the Spokesman for UN Secretary‑General António Guterres:

The Secretary-General is very concerned about the current situation in the Tigray province in Ethiopia.

He feels that it is essential to quickly restore the rule of law, in full respect for human rights, promote social cohesion, an inclusive reconciliation, as well as to re-establish the delivery of public services and guarantee unfettered humanitarian access.

The United Nations remains totally committed to supporting the African Union initiative. We also remain fully committed to mobilizing the full capacity of the United Nations to provide humanitarian support to refugees, displaced people and all populations in distress.

The Secretary-General has also been conveying these messages in the numerous conversations he has had with United Nations representatives on the ground and regional leaders, as well as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia with whom he spoke today.

Ethiopia: Office of the Prime Minister – Current Phase of the Rule of Law Operations in Tigray Region (07.12.2020)

Ethiopia: Unconfirmed reports of the arrests of TPLF President Debretsion and Advisor Reda

BREAKING : Tigray state president Debretsion Gebremichael reportedly captured alive along with other senior aides during a joint operation by the Ethiopian Military and Amhara Regional State Paramilitary Forces in the conflict hit Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia” (Halgan Media, 06.12.2020).

Unconfirmed reports on social media TPLF leader Debretsion is arrested but Amhara Goverment office advising to not celebrate since the arrest is not confirmed and official yet” (Addis Media, 06.12.2020).

There also reports that Getachew Reda was also arrested with the TPLF President Debretsion as they we’re fleeing the area in Sekota as priests. Some has said the Woreda Communications have confirmed this and that they are held by the Court Martial.

However, none of this information is currently verified. It is not yet clear. The Media blackout and government stranglehold on information. Makes the process of gathering information from the Region of Tigray much harder. Therefore, we can not yet say if this is true or not.

It would be a big blow for the TPLF. Losing main leaders and getting them behind bars. These folks will get no mercy from the Federal Government. As they will be proven “terrorists” in their eyes and will not shown any redeeming character. They will be taken and shown as an example for the rest of the Republic.

This would be a big victory for the Prime Minister and the Prosperity Party. If these two are arrested and other aides of the TPLF President Debretsion. The TPLF will be damaged by this. We don’t know how this goes for the Command Structure and the current fighting in the Region.

If these folks are arrested. It is a propaganda victory. Nevertheless, I doubt it will be enough to cease the fighting and the current battles in the region. Peace.

Ethiopia: Abiy is in a foxhole [looking for the ones jumping out of the trenches]

At this point of time there is nothing that surprises me nor shocks me about the ways the Prosperity Party behaves and manoeuvrers. Why do I say that? Well, this week the Parliament have accepted the postponement of the August 2020 elections. As the transition period of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali would be over. However, that is squashed now because of the convenient crisis of COVID-19 or the Coronavirus.

That is just how things goes. Just like the convenient ways of “State of Emergency”, the easy way out of a “Amhara Coup” to install his puppets and so fourth. Everything just falls in line and works out well for the man on the top. He can easily send in forces without a mandate into Somalia. This man can return asylum seekers (political refugees) to Djibouti without any concern. That is just what the PP does.

With this in mind, the postponement of the elections isn’t surprising either. It would be a paradigm shift if there was elections made without any violence, intimidation and rigging. Nevertheless, the supposed reformist has only consolidated the power within the PP. He lost also an ally by doing this. That was the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) the party who ran the old coalition. The Woyane are now trying to flex themselves and are righteous in their motives here. That they are running elections on schedule shows finesse in their region. As a stark contrast to the PP who intend to rule on borrowed time.

As well as joint statement from Oromo parties shows their dissent to the idea of a postponed elections as well. It is not like the PP are winning favours by doing this. We cannot expect a harsh statement from Amhara, as they are already muffled and have loyal men to the PP in power there. Just as the house of Ogaden or the Somali Region has been cleared to secure more friendly foes there too. The PP has taken slowly steps to get the right people in order.

That is why the only questions from the region where the PP should have the most support, as the PM and comrades come from the old OPDO. That is why the strong statement, the resentment and the continues violence in that region is a warning itself. As the state have changed it head, but the actions are the same. The Prime Minister haven’t done anything significant with this. He came in with lots of promises, but they have been shattered with time.

Now its all in the open. There is no surprises anymore and his not even trying. The Prime Minister is only showing his true side to the world. As all parties involved are working for him and ensuring his ways. That is why the Parliament accepted the postponement. Though there are some questionable concerns in doing it. Unless, he wants all his enemies to sprint up and show their facade. Some has and maybe he await more than the three parties mentioned: TPLF, OFC and OLF. He was maybe hoping for more.

What is clear that Prime Minster Abiy isn’t a true reformer. His not a what he meant to be. He did some PR stunts and some speeches, but his true character is out. There is no denying in that now. The Prime Minister has had the time to what he felt was right, but has squandered it or haven’t even cared.

He is playing with fire. A man like Abiy should know this. The PM has already seen the bloodshed in Oromia before. That is still happening with arbitrary arrests and other violent actions done to the population. Therefore, the PM could have acted upon this, but instead turns a blind eye. As he is busy finding new schemes to earn fortunes in office.

This last postponement only shows he uses the pandemic as an opportunity to buy time and see who jumps up from the trenches. The PP will navigate this and figure out what to do. They will have the time to set-up shop and secure the game before its set. The elections isn’t about creating change, but to validate the PP and the Prime Minister. That is why he needs more time to secure all bases. So, that he can rule supreme and have the legitimacy he needs. Because right now, his the “interim” who wants to permanent. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy’s Anti-‘Medemer’ Law Approved

There are sometimes ironies in life. Today that comes from Addis Ababa and Ethiopia. Where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was supposed to reform things. However, with time that isn’t sincere and today the nail in coffin of that was with a disingenuous law. Laws like these aren’t to save the nations from certain speech, but to muffle critics and opposition.

The Prosperity Party and the Prime Minister are really showing that there is no difference in them compared to the previous regimes, which it came from. This is happening in the months ahead of elections. So, expect the leadership of opposition and journalists to be arrested because of this law. As there are easy steps to be hit by this sort of law. Because of this, I am first dropping the key news about the law, before a simple explanation of the “Medemer” and after that breaking it quickly down.

The State own report on it:
“Addis Ababa, February 13, 2020 (FBC) –Ethiopian parliament today approved a hate speech and disinformation prevention and suppression law. The law was approved with a majority vote, 23 against and 2 abstentions” (…) “It is also intended to control and suppress the dissemination and proliferation of hate speech, disinformation and other related false and misleading information.
The law prohibits disseminating hate speech by means of broadcasting, print or social media using text, image, audio or video” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘House approves hate speech and disinformation prevention law’ 13.02.2020).

What is Medemer:

Since reformist Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed came into office, his concept ‘Medemer’ has become a phrase of common currency within Ethiopia’s political landscape. ‘Medemer’ literally means ‘adding’ or ‘being added’ based on how its read, and contextually means to come together. According to the Prime Minister, ‘Medemer’ is a homegrown approach that aims to solve the country’s challenges by bringing together polar views, and finding compromise” (Ethiopian Press Agency – ‘Inside ‘Medemer’’ 13.01.2020).

This law is clearly aimed at the ones not speaking their language or their rhetoric, as they can charge and make their expression illegal. As they will control the media, the public online and elsewhere. That is why this is totally opposite of the ideals of ‘Medemer’, as that was to bring together polar views and find compromises.

Now, the state is instead made way to stifle the voices, instead of listening they can ban and make voices illegal. Even if there are ethnic hate-speech, if there is tribal sentiment growing. This law will be most likely hit the dissidents and opposition.

This is the opposite of finding compromise and it’s actually silencing them. If this would target Mohammad Jawar’s Oromo Media Network or Eskinder Nega for that matter. I wouldn’t shocked, if they got into trouble for something they wrote or stated online. Neither, if some media forums like Tigrai Online or Aiga Forum for that matter. Don’t be shocked, if these would be banned or seen as illegal by the authorities ahead of the elections. Because, they just need to write or state something online, which is deemed as disinformation, hate-speech and you got it cracking.

This wasn’t a move of reform, but of going back. They might renamed themselves the Prosperity Party, but this is the old-EPRDF oppressive style of move. Peace.

Opinion: Prime Minister Abiy’s hope went up in smoke

The picture isn’t as rosy or hopeful as when he took power. Prime Minister Abiy Ali Ahmed has spoiled his opportunity to make significant changes. Instead he has focused on consolidating power. Ensuring his men is in-charge in Amhara. Continuing to use force and Command Post in Oromia. Still persistent violence in the Ogaden. While, he still has flex and popularity abroad. Which is only there because of the PR and positive press surrounding him.

PM Abiy have reformed the Ethiopian People’s Defence Front (EPRDF), first making it Oromia based and taking away power from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). To now start it as one entity, the Prosperity Party (PP) without the TPLF. The other parties has joined into the one party, but it shows frictions. Not only has the Oromo Liberation Front and other Oromo parties gone into an alliance. Even in Oromia, Mohammad Jawar is ahead and has a grand standing.

That means, both Oromia and Tigray are areas where the Prime Minister standing is weak. As he can only survive there on fear and intimidation. He can only get traction, if he suppress the voters and silence the voices of these regions. While Amhara whose been in conflict too, will cause issues as well. It is like the lid is open to several of places, instead of the man of peace mending these. He amplifying them to gain an advantage. Just like his using the violence of Ogaden to export oil too.

The PM has had the opportunity, but he has squandered the momentum. The killings in Addis Ababa, the horrific affairs in Oromia and Ogaden is a sign of what to come. There is no ending and the Command Post and the Liyu Police are both controlling the regions with fierce force. While the Queerro of Jawar is answering these. All of this doesn’t cease the conflict, but enhancing it. Its like he wants this to ensure enough chaos to rule supreme.

The PM could have found other ways ahead of the elections, but he seems to want it like this. That he wants to usher in new public projects every week ahead of elections. Now deals in the sphere of the horn of Africa. Look good with Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. While that will overlook the internal problems, which the PM is not solving. His only undermining it and not doing the bidding of the local leaders. The ones whose supposed to follow his medemer.

It seems his making things liberal in the sense of pleasing donors, instead of truly believing in it himself. Doing it to state enterprises to ensure donor support. Some might even call it all a “hijacked revolution”. But at this point, we cannot know.

What we do know is that the elections in August 2020 will either be free and fair or rigged to the smallest detail. Don’t expect PM Abiy to play totally fair, even if he opens up to plenty parties, but that will be for the facade, because he will not loose himself. Then he will loose the power his gained and consolidated in office.

Two years is a mighty long time in office. A lot has happen, a lot of promise and pledges, but not acted upon. The coming months will show, if it was all a play or if it can be a reality. If the PP and Abiy cares about the people or using them as pawns. We can just await, but don’t expect magic, but expect a hard reality. As the forces are still in the fields. The atrocities are still happening and the escalation of it. Is only a few small steps away and that can ordered directly from the PM.

It’s easy to speak of unity and peace, but it’s harder to actually make it happen. When the PM himself hasn’t acted upon those words, but instead amplified it in certain regions. The Ethno-politics are not over, but at a stage where the PM and his folk better be cautious and not reckless.

However, who knows what path he picks, but don’t expect it all to be fair. Instead, expect it to be fanfare and filled with empty promises. As it is not like he has delivered to the hope he spread in the beginning of his term. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy’s two giant losses

That Prime Minister Dr. Ali Ahmed Abiy are currently loosing a bit of prestige at home and its very visible. His able to get through positive bills, like the recent bill on assembly and such lately. However, that doesn’t overshadow two important things for alliances and to get a bigger picture ahead of upcoming elections in 2020.

He has lost one important party, which was seen as the steering-wheel and the ones behind scenes controlling the old coalition of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Front (EPRDF), which is now created into one party, the Prosperity Party. The other parties in the old coalition has made itself into one, but the ones now joining is the Tigrai People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that has deemed the new party even “illegal”.

If the Prime Minister see this as a minor flinch, he should be wrong. That they are still viable and able to create trouble for him. No one should underestimate the TPLF and what they can do. Even as all the lights and stars are directed at Abiy. His still not walking alone in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE).

What makes him even more alone is from his own region, where there is still reports of killings and oppression from the state. As the endless violence persist. Something, that the former Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) could have reacted to and hasn’t acted upon. That’s why you know he has more trouble ahead. As his nemesis in Oromia, Mohammed Jawar have not only plans to join the race in the elections, but also joined the Oromo Federal Congress (OFC). Just merely a weeks after he did that. His been able to get Oromo Federal Congress, Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Nationalist Party (ONP) to all be one alliance into the upcoming election.

Therefore, there is not only issues with the Tigray and the TPLF, whose not being a part of the new party. Which is a warning signal in itself. But that Jawar is able to become such a figure in Oromia. Says that Abiy doesn’t have the love in his own region, where OPDO was supposed to reside and represent in government.

I’m not defending the TPLF, no their vindictive and vicious history will be reflected in due time. But however with an upcoming election. Abiy needs as many friends as possible, if he wants to reflect positive on him. Unless, he plans to rig it like there is no tomorrow. Than, all of these movements doesn’t matter anyway. Because he will win and the Prosperity Party will be signed off as the victor. A giant launch of the One-Party State, while the others are allowed only to be mediocre parties locally, who has no say in Parliament or in the Federal system.

We should worry that TPLF and Jawar is doing what he does. Because, the undermine the central government. They are making the PP looking foolish. This is not dialogue and not the talks, this is not the acts of strength, but acts of the weak.

Debretsion Gebremichael might have the ability to sound prestigious with his party. The Press Release was a big-man statement from the Party too. However, that doesn’t change the narrative. Other than they are leaving the EPRDF legacy behind. They are the only boat steaming ahead with non of the former parties. They are becoming an opposition party, instead of being a governing party.

The PP is weaker by this. They have lost one big piece of the EPRDF. One that was historically vital to it all. The Woyane will be missed by some and cursed by others. For all the right reasons. Nevertheless, the loser here right now is Abiy. He needs his buddies. While he gets less and less. Even fewer in Oromia too. Where he get more and more united opposition there. That is what is visible and obvious.

Whatever, Abiy is doing, the state apparatus, the yes-men around him isn’t helping. His not solving or revolving the doors correctly. He is losing, one after another one. There cannot be more sudden rash coup d’etat in the regions. This election has to look real. If he wants to still look like a shining star. However, that star is dimming and its does so slowly. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy was too early crowned king…

There are too many issues, to much outstanding barriers to give way and easily praise the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali of Ethiopia. I cannot with an easy heart give way, even as the fanfare and celebration of becoming a Nobel Laurate. That doesn’t overshadow the hardships, neither the wrongs of the state.

There have already been questionable behaviour of the state in Oromia since his inception as the Prime Minister. The sudden coup in Amhara and the killings there. Combined with the killings and violence in the Ogaden Region. Plus the Ethiopian Army involvement in internal affairs in Somalia.

While the deal and peace-agreement with Eritrea isn’t resolved and the issues remaining are vital to fix it. The deal of open border and questions over land still needs to be worked at.

The other issue is the up-coming election, either as it will be a rubberstamping affair or because more tension, as the former party-block of the EPRDF has become the Prosperity Party. That means they will go in as one unit, instead of one the majority of ethnic groups. Which is a honourable approach, but also a way to mask a One-Party if they tune the whole election to their benefit. Instead of letting all the other registered parties and candidates interested involved in the polls.

That is why for me its to quick. There are too many issues to just give away an award on the goodwill and possible changes he can make. Not that he has significantly changed it all. The Police and Army is still violent. The ethnic violence are still appearing and the allies of the PM is dwindling away. Therefore, it is not like he has forever the mantle and love from the public.

The PM might think he got it and he has the stamina to keep up. Nevertheless, at this point, the reforms are maybe only skin-deep. As he couldn’t muster the courage to be questioned in Oslo. He was silent and just took the award, but wasn’t transparent about it. He only wants the praise, but not the questions about his reign.

That isn’t a sign of strength. That isn’t a sign of hope, but of fear and determination to rule. Because, if he was a man of peace, he wouldn’t only spread the word, but his actions would be there too. He would have the balls and the ability to finesse the ones who are spreading the violence within his ranks and within the security outfits that does it. That is why there are so many internally displaced. So, many who has lost their livelihoods and who has family members scorned by violence.

The PM can act and have the swagger, but that does not mean it is real. That the PM got international recognition doesn’t change the questionable activity at home in Oromia, Ogaden or in Amhara. It just amplifying it. Since people feel boggled and wonder why?

So, I cannot salute this man. Not yet, especially when his not brazen or even have the gratitude of questions from the media. That should be easy picking, as so many are automatic bootlickers to the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the realities remain, the unresolved acts and the questionable activity of the Ethiopian forces within Somalia and Ogaden shouldn’t be forgotten. Neither should the questionable behaviour of the state in concern to Amhara either.

That he has made changes, yes he has, but not all has panned out and certainly Ethiopia isn’t in total peace. Neither is the border dispute with Eritrea. That is why, the PP and Abiy has more work to do. That is, if they only play for PR or the façade, but not actually achieve anything substantial in the end. Peace.

Ethiopia: Office of the Prime Minister – Press Release (10.12.2019)