Ranking of Peace in the East Africa Countries in 2015

East-Africa

First and foremost I will address what the trending and ranking means. What kind of things that the Global Peace Index does and what kind of attributes and recent history means for individual countries. All of this makes violence, homicides, social security, militarization which is part of the evaluation of the scores which makes the Index. The countries that will take on is Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. Which have different histories, though they are close to each other? Why are the numbers so far apart? What makes this? We can wonder. But look through what been said in the report and the numbers.

Last years trend:

“Over the past eight years the average country score deteriorated 2.4 percent, highlighting that on average the world has become slightly less peaceful. However, this decrease in peacefulness has not been evenly spread, with 86 counties deteriorating while 76 improved. MENA has suffered the largest decline of any region in the world, deteriorating 11 per cent over the past eight years (GPI, P: 2).

Economic price of violence:

“The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2014 was substantial and is estimated at US$14.3 trillion or 13.4 per cent of world GDP. This is equivalent to the combined economies of Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom. Since 2008, the total economic impact on global GDP has increased by 15.3 per cent, from US$12.4 trillion to US$14.3 trillion” (GPI, P: 3).

“Societal safety and security:

This section analyses the effects of urbanisation on violence, and finds that peace generally increases with higher levels of urbanisation. This is a by-product of higher levels of development. However, countries that have weak rule of law, high levels of intergroup grievances and high levels of inequality are more likely to experience deteriorations in peace as urbanisation increases” (GPI, P: 3).

“Militarisation:

Since 1990, there has been a slow and steady decrease in measures of global militarisation, with large changes in militarisation occurring rarely and usually associated with larger, globally driven geopolitical and economic shifts” (GPI, P: 3).

Important evaluation that makes the GPI:

  • Ongoing domestic and international conflict
  • Societal safety and security
  • Millitarisation
  • Indirect cost of violence: Accounts for costs that are not directly related to an act of violence and accrue over the long run. This can include losses of income due to injury or pain or grievance of others who were not directly involved in the crime.
  • Internal Peace: A set of indicators that measures how peaceful a country is inside its
  • national borders
  • Negative Peace: The absence of violence or fear of violence.
  • Positive Peace: The attitudes, institutions and structures which create and sustain peaceful societies. These same factors also lead to many other positive outcomes that support the optimum environment for human potential to flourish.
  • Positive Peace Index (PPI): A composite measurement of Positive Peace based on 24 indicators grouped into eight domains.
  • Resilience: The ability of a country to absorb and recover from shocks, for example natural disasters or fluctuations in commodity prices.
  • Violence containment: Economic activity related to the consequences or prevention of violence where the violence is directed against people or property.

(GPI, P: 4).

Listings of Peaceful ratings:

World Rank: Country: Score: State of the Peace: Change in Score: Regional Rank:
130 Burundi 2,323 Low +,0,009 34
155 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 3,085 Very Low -0,033 41
119 Ethiopia 2,234 Low -0,143 27
133 Kenya 2,323 Low -0,086 35
139 Rwanda 2,420 Low -0,027 38
157 Somalia 3,307 Very Low -0,079 42
159 South Sudan 3,383 Very Low +0,107 44
64 Tanzania 1,903 Medium -0,024 10
111 Uganda 2,197 Medium +0,013 24

(GPI P: 8-9, P: 13)

The Regional Rank is set for the region of Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore the regional rank is different from the World Rank. In the World rank it goes from 64 of Tanzania and 159 of South Sudan. That is 100 countries in between in the World, when we talk about peaceful environment and the fear should be one South Sudan (159), Somalia (157) and DRC (155).  Tanzania which is on top is the 64. Next place is for Uganda was ranked on 111, the third and fourth country in the region which was near each other was Kenya (133) and Rwanda (139). And the fifth place is Burundi (130) – which I am certain will fall on the rank after the elections in 2015. But for the GPI 2015 there is still high level for the region.

On Armed Conflicts and War in Sub-Saharan Africa: “Although sub-Saharan Africa has the highest number of conflicts, these conflicts tend not to last as long as in other regions. There were only three conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa in 2013 which started more than three years ago, two of which are long-standing conflicts in Ethiopia” (GPI, P: 51).

On Peacefulness in the region: “In 2008, MENA had the same level of peacefulness as sub-Saharan Africa, and was the 6th most peaceful region in the world. By 2015 it has become the least peaceful region in the world, deteriorating by 11 per cent over the period” (GPI, P: 55).

On South Sudan: “South Sudan’s ranking declined by only three places, but this was on top of by far the sharpest fall in the 2014 GPI. It remains embroiled in the civil conflict that broke out in December 2013, and which has thus far proved immune to numerous peace efforts” (…) “South Sudan also fell for its third consecutive year, slipping a further 3 places to 159. (GPI, P: 13, 16).

On Somalia: Somalia is on the highest cost of violence percentage of GDP which was 22%. “The majority of” (…) “Somalia’s costs stem from IDPs and refugees and homicides” (…) “The same category represents 54 per cent of Somalia’s total costs. (GPI, P: 77).

The difference is staggering from Somalia and South Sudan to the best state of peace in Tanzania. The other countries in between is ranked so close and with scores that could easily point them further down for next year if the militarization and violence inside the countries continue. Like I have a grand feeling that Burundi will fall on the ranking next year, also Uganda with the recent attacks and continuously going against opposition to the Presidential elections in 2016. Rwanda will sure shut down anybody who goes against the third term of Paul Kagame. There are also issues that are meeting Joseph Kabila’s planed third term in Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is in a stalemate of totalitarian regime that keeps the borders clear and with the resistance that comes from Somalia or the Omoro Liberation Front (OLF). Kenya has issues with building the border to Somalia where they has also taken districts in Somalia. And Kenya has the fear of Al-Shabab after the terrorist attack in Nairobi (2013) and that has happen also in Kampala (2010) in Uganda.

Therefore these rankings are important to look at because you can see what the state of ease is at, this is about the peace and impact of the authoritarian and totalitarian regimes in these countries. And will be good to follow and see how it really turns out in the next year rankings from the same place the Institute for Economic and Peace.

Hope it’s been a drop of enlightenment for you as well. Peace.

Reference:

Institute for Economics and Peace: “Global Peace Index – 2015 – Measuring Peace, its causes and its economic value”

On Andrew Mwenda and Corruption – how he has changed his mind over the years

MwendaNewNight

It’s been a long walk for Andrew Mwenda the former Political Editor of the Daily Monitor of Uganda. The former enemy of the regime, the man who got 15 counts against him in court at a set of time for writing against the NRM regime is today another man. He has changed with quotes leading in Chimp reports sadden me. At some point I had faith in the man as a Nobel journalist who fought a just cause. I will show from today and famous words from before to show and mirror the man and how he has fallen from grace. Here I will go back to the letters which shows his colors in black and white. While taking the stand against in one minute and later being for it. This here is about the reach from today and the past where he said differently.

With the reference to the quotes from today’s Chimp reports it shows how he has fallen from grace:

“With a budget of 24 trillion, I think stealing 500 billion is peanuts (it’s a theft rate of less than 2%) In the wider scheme of things, a 2% theft rate is really small. It means that you are utilizing 98% of the money correctly” (…) “May be the stolen 500B is what ensures a stable political order without which we would have civil war. It is hard to tell. The point is, even if you were right about the loss of 500B; you don’t know the other opportunity cost of not stealing it!”(Waswa, 2015).

That is what he said today, but a few years ago when he went independent from the Daily Monitor. On the departure and resignation on the 16th August 2007 the memorable quotes on the same issues is this:

“The major shareholder is given more investment deals in Uganda. I am a citizen of Uganda, not a mercenary. I therefore cannot betray the future of my country in order to retain the privilege of working or writing for Monitor. The future of Uganda is more than anything that money can buy” (…) “Because Monitor has succumbed to bribes and intimidation from the state, it is no longer the institution I was once proud to serve. It has lost its soul. It has betrayed its readers and listeners. It has betrayed Uganda. It has betrayed Africa. It has betrayed the cause of liberty and freedom. It has betrayed humankind. I cannot be an accomplice to this death of a dream whether because of state intimidation or of sweet heart business deals between the chief of state and the major shareholder. To do so would be identical to the action of Judas Iscariot who betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver” (Mwenda, 2007).

In 2008 letter for late payment for “advertisement” in his publication:

“This is to request you to pay Independence Publication Limited (IPL) US$ 200,000 (two hundred thousand United States dollars) only for adverts in the Independent newsmagazine for the government of Rwanda for the year 2008” (Mwenda, 2008).

In 2010 Mwenda continued the stride against corruption:

“the country needs to implement drastic reforms in order to bring its fiscal house in order and promote development using its own resources—starting with a more efficient and enforced system of taxation” (…) “tax collection by the Uganda Revenue Authority amounts to about 12 percent of GDP—well below the sub-Saharan African average of 18–20 percent and far from the government’s target of 24 percent” (…) “Uganda does not need more foreign aid” (…) “Rather, it needs to improve its tax administration by investing in better staff and motivating them with better pay and better facilities” (Probe International, 2010).

How Mwenda got paid from the Government of Rwanda:

As capital, Mwenda was advanced $1 million from state consolidated fund termed as classified to start this magazine, then to help fight President Museveni’s Government that Kagame was not happy with” (…) “Mwenda who is on a monthly basis paid $200,000 from state coffers, for his rebuts and propaganda against Kagame’s critics and in defence of the dictator has no shame to compare Kigali roads and streets to Dubai, London and New York, forgetting that these roads are not more than 2 years old, compared to those that have stood a lifespan of more than 100 years” (Gasasira, 2013).

In January 2015 he even wrote this at his own leader in the Independent:

“Corruption is debated in mainstream media as a criminal act whose primary objective is to enrich individuals involved in it. Although it manifests itself this way, this is a residual part of the problem. The real issue about corruption in Uganda is that it is the essence of how political power in the country is organised, exercised, allocated, distributed and reproduced. Corruption is actually our system of government” (…) “President Yoweri Museveni’s greatest triumph has been to organise corruption on a broad-based scale. By expanding cabinet, the number of presidential advisors, increasing the number of districts, creating many commissions and autonomous government agencies and by establishing many security outfits, he has created highly diversified centers for corruption. Even the opposition has districts where they can goad themselves. Where in other nations corruption has been explosive, in Uganda it has been integrative” (Mwenda, 2015).

When you look through his quotes and what he has taken a stand for corruption in the past. And how he accepted certain pay-offs from Rwanda in the beginning of the Independent Magazine as early as 2008. While has had issues with barking at the government of Uganda. This is sadly ironic for this public character and writer that all people who knows Uganda, knows about. Therefore when the colors are off, you know see who he really has become.

So when you see how that money is making him blind on Rwanda and their issues. It is understandable why he will be a strong supporter of the third term in Rwanda. I am sure we will see more of that in the near future. But this here is about corruption and shows how he is not committed to it when it comes to Republic of Rwanda.

Secondly he has from the times of 2007 to 2015, shows the changes and how he has become something else then the man he wanted to be in 2007. If he really wanted to be that man with integrity and honor. He has now lost his marbles in the recent year or tired of being a true renegade against injustice in Uganda. Since he all of a sudden is fan of corruption and believes that generate actual growth. This in a country that has more and more debt, more and more local counties and ministers which cost more money, while it isn’t generating more tax money. That does not make sense Mr. Mwenda? Does it? Your supposed to an enlighten man, but your arguments today beats by your own old words. I am not sure if he is now positive since he claim that the government of Uganda is integrated with Corruption (which he said in January this year) then now in August he claims that it’s okay steal 500bn shillings when the budget is as much as 25 trillion shillings. Because it’s peanuts, it’s a saying that he now can think about: Respect is hard to earn and easy to lose. Something he has done now. With actually proclaiming for the world it’s okay to take 500bn from the state-coffers to their own gain then actually making something decent for their country.

Mr. Mwenda I am sorry whatever reason you can say that thieving is a good thing is wrong. It’s like tomorrow you will claim killing and the plague is great like Malthus is famous for saying: “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, we should reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases: and those benevolent, but much mistaken men, who have thought they were doing a service to mankind by projecting schemes for the total extirpation of particular disorders. If by these and similar means the annual mortality were increased … we might probably every one of us marry at the age of puberty and yet few be absolutely starved” (Marjie, 2009).

I am waiting for Mr. Mwenda to turn a blind eye to other issues in society. But today’s stupid comments on corruption are as mad as population control from the late Thomas Robert Malthus who lived 1766 – 1834. And Mr. Mwenda want to be seen as enlighten and educated TED talk’s kind of editor. With this kind of reasoning he is losing it. And I don’t know why, I am not sure if he knows why. He surely has become something else then the man who went away from a great position in the Daily Monitor to make his own workplace in the Independent Magazine in Uganda. Which is sad see if he has sold out totally, he will not be a crucial voice into the elections, which is coming in the 2016. He is surely not the man who needed a bail out in 12 August 2005 after being too critical on the KFM radio. That made the government angry so they actually turned off the radio transmitters for a week (Article 19, 2005).

So the man who has had issues with the government must has grown tired and wanted a decent day job instead of being a renegade watchdog with his own magazine. This has led to the quotes today which don’t fit the old reasoning of the same man. Mr. Mwenda, where did your mind go? And why did you change your mind? Peace.

Reference:

Article 19 – For Immediate Release – ‘Uganda: Sedition law must be abolished’ (26.09.2005). Link: https://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/press/uganda-sedition-law.pdf

Waswa, Sam – ‘Uganda Needs Corruption to Stimulate Economic Growth – Argues Mwenda’ (12.08.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/uganda-needs-corruption-to-stimulate-economic-growth-argues-mwenda/

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Resignation’ (16.08.2007) – Letter sent to the Managing Director of Monitor Publication.

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Payment for advertisement’- Letter from Independent Publication Ltd to Ministry of Finance, Republic of Rwanda (10.03.2008).

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘the political value of corruption’ (10.01.2015) link: http://independent.co.ug/andrewmwenda/?p=298

Marjie, Bloy – ‘Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on Population”’ (09.08.2009) link: http://www.victorianweb.org/economics/essay.html

Gasasira, Sweden – ‘When Mwenda goofed with $200,000 cheque stolen from poor Rwandans in defence of Kagame dictatorship’ (11.01.2013) link: http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7465&lang=en

Probe International – ‘Rewarding corruption: World Bank gives more money to corruption-riddled Uganda’ (14.10.2010) Link: http://journal.probeinternational.org/2010/10/14/rewarding-corruption-world-bank-gives-more-money-to-corruption-riddled-uganda/

Bank of Uganda – Monetary Policy Statement for August 2015 (10.08.2015)

BoU Monetary PS August2015P1BoU Monetary PS August2015P2

 

Uganda’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy for FY 2015/2015 – FY 2019/2020: What is it all about?

UGX Pic

Here you will see what strategies and plans the Government of Uganda has made for their loans and debts. This is about how the Government will deal with it and how it can be done. The numbers tell what they can expect if they pick the certain ways of dealing with it. It shows what can happen and the shock scenarios are important.

This should be seen as important to follow especially with the growing debt and the rates that come with that. Therefore it will be something that should be monitored. From the sustainability of the ratio according the GDP should be something that also brings fear. Especially since this will have general effect on how the general economy will be hit with the down payments and strain the basic budgets of the government. There its a viable thing that should be well known by people, because this will have big importance until FY 2019/2020

“The Uganda Vision 2040 aspires to transform Uganda into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years through provision of adequate infrastructure, development of agriculture, human resources and services sectors, enlargement of markets, strengthening of the private sector and through industrialization” (…) “Implementation of the Uganda 2040 Vision will require substantial resources that will partly be garnered through the domestic and international borrowing. To ensure that our debt remain sustainable, such borrowing has to be carried out through a properly formulated Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)” (MTDS, P: 4, 2015).

“The key aim for the MTDS2015 is to ascertain the cost and risk trade-off of financing the medium term fiscal deficit through borrowing while remaining mindful of our debt sustainability” (…) “To meet Government’s financing requirements at the minimum cost, subject to a prudent degree of risk; (ii) to ensure that the level of public debt remains sustainable, both in the medium and long term horizon while being mindful of future generations; and (iii) to promote the development of the domestic financial market (MTDS, P: 6, 2015).

Strategies:

  1. Traditional post debt relief approach of prioritizing concessional financing.
  2. A debut Euro-Bond: The Sovereign Bond Issuance which risks the cost and the trade-off of the International-Market and financing alternative.
  3. Non-Concessional borrowing and meeting with bilateral with commercial creditors negotiations.
  4. Reliance on Domestic-Financing establishing the cost and risk trade-offs, which risk less since it’s from the Domestic-Financial-Market.

(MTDS, P: 6-7, 2015).

Cost & Risk Debt Uganda

External Debt Stock:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

External Debt Stock Uganda

Domestic Debt Stock:

Domestic Debt Stock

Refinancing:

External debt maturity for the ATM (Average Time for Maturity) was 18.9 Years. The plan is setting that the in 2.3 years will the ATM be 11.8 years.

Public Debt Maturity Profile under REFINANCING

Currencies:

Currency Distribution P17

Aggregrate Medium Term Debt Strategy:

The outlook for the 5.3% in FY 2014/2015 and is looking to reach 5.8% in FY 2015/2016. The plan forward is to attain an average 6.3% for the fiscal framework (MTDS, P: 17, 2015).

Selected Medium Term P18

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

Stylized Financing Instruments:

Two instruments:

i: International Development Association (IDA) has the interest 0.75% for the maturity of 38 years.

ii: African Development Fund (ADF) has the interest 0.75% with a maturity of 40 years.

iv: The concessional is with fixed rate loans with 23 years maturity and 6 year grace period. These terms comes from IDA-Blend, Kuwait Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund, UK-Export Credit Guarantee.

v: The fixed rate instrument on the Euro Bond which is priced on a ten-years US-Treasury interest rate.

vii: With Pure commercial loans is a instruments with a 7 years of maturity and with a 3 years grace period.

viii: One T-Bills is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 91 days, 181 days,  and 364 days.

ix: Four T-Bonds is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years.

(MTDS, P: 18-21, 2015).

Stylized Financing Strategy P22

Four scenarios for the Market:

First Scenario: The first thing is possible currency depreciation – is that in the FY 2015/2016 can end up with 30% depreciation and will have to work to sustain that through to 2019/2020.

Second Scenario: A sharp off increase in domestic rates for 2015/2016 and at the Interest Rate will follow the baseline of the Foreign Currency.

Third Scenario: Domestic Interest Rate still set to be baseline assumption that we’re set. And that the denomination on the Foreign Currency following the instruments set for it.

Fourth Scenario: That the Decapitation of the UGX towards the US Dollar in the amount of 15%, that can lead to a shock in the domestic yield a curve for the 2015/2016.

(MTDS, P: 23, 2015).

Analysis of the strategies:

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

MTDS P25

 

MTDS P29

 

MTDS P30

Hope you have found it interesting and learn something of the Government of Uganda planning of dealing with their debt. And how they see the future for their economy. Then what kind of strategies and scenario’s that could appear and how they will appear together. The Financial Years that are ahead and how the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development thinks of their economy. Hope it give you something and also a little feeling about how the economy might progress.

Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt  Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

ADF or Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu? – Museveni struggle with counterrevolutionary insurgency

In 1990 Yoweri Museveni gave the Millitary Academy in Bombo a document explaining how to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 132). Why I am pointing this out today. It’s because of the tragic events in Kasese and Bundibugyo(Bagala, 2014) where its reported now 90 dead. The document was in a book published in 2000 called ‘What’s Is Africa’s Problem?’ Then I will address this document and this with the state it is in today. With doing so, I will there after discuss short history of ADF, LRA, ADM and UMLA whom all interconnected. After that show how the ADF has reacted to recent events and how we come to the news of recent of the tragic deaths in Kasese and Bundibugyo. This will be long post, but hopefully this will give you some new knowledge on the matter.

Museveni had four points to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency:

  1. Fight for the right cause
  2. The cause of the government must be for a just one.
  3. Politicizing the population
  4. Diplomatic weapons

(Museveni, 2000)

First Point: Fight illiteracy and make government policy on land for the population (Museveni, 2000, S: 132). In 2014 there new reports of bad schools and its sorry state, Margret Nakitto the Mukono Muncipal Education officer explains to Red Pepper: “We as a municipal, we always carry out village meetings with communities where the locals identify their basic necessities then we handle them over to the district that in most cases has positively responded to our requests”, she continues:”  Active learning is in government schools unlike private schools that hire mercenary who force pupils to cram what they do not understand”(Red Pepper, 2014). Second part of first point is to rebuild infrastructure (Museveni. 2000, S: 133). Museveni himself said for the budget in 2014/2015: “Uganda is now connected from corner to corner. You can now drive on tarmac road to all corners of Uganda. As a result of this shift in resources, Uganda has achieved connectivity across the country” (State House, 2014). So we have to see if that is true. The weakness of the national economy can lead to counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 133). World Bank reports that since 1986 to 2014 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has gone from around 4.80 Billion USD to 21.48 billion USD (World Bank, 2014). There would be issues with ideology, political and general conceptual underdevelopment (Museveni, 2000, S: 133). Reasons for underdevelopment in Uganda stemmed from the colonial administration into the new independence policies of manufacturing. The government continued with the new policies of to the agricultural sector. In agricultural sector has the focus is on the traditional foods and also the non-traditional for export like coffee. Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) has liberated the economy and also opened for more unemployment. SAP was abounded in 2009 where the focus turned into a principal marcoeconomics element such as economic growth to trickledown economy, inflation control, and export of raw materials, and also to focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Kashumbashi writes: “Uganda is now defined as a failed state vulnerable to domestic and external shocks including inability and /or unwillingness to control borders against the influx of illegal immigrants that have heightened political tensions as competition for services and resources particularly land ownership intensifies. Thus, notwithstanding its huge resource endowment and strategic location, Uganda remains mired in under-development and extreme poverty because of unfavourable economic policies and political instability, civil wars and violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms”(Kashumbashi, 2014).

Second Point: The cause of the government must be for a just one (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Where the focus was on correct building of the army and graduation of the military (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Museveni says: “Military training is not easy. It is tough but builds your stamina, body and character”(…)”This emphasis you have done, of political education and discipline is very welcome and I want to thank you very much for that”(UGO.co.ug, 2014).

Third Point: Politicizing a Confused Population (Museveni, 2000, S: 136). That the manipulation of the population and peasantry ignorance and bandits taking advantages previous political mobilization. There could also be tribal intoxicants with the issues between the “south” and the “north” (Museveni, 2000, S: 137). With the basis of the discipline of the army would give security to the population. Good prompt management and utilization of intelligence information for the government (Museveni, 2000, S: 137-138). Col Felix Kulayigye said “the truth telling process could turn chaotic since most of the conflicts in the country were tribal” (…) ”while many people keep accusing government of wrong doing yet there are many civilians and religious leaders who protected insurgents especially during the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel conflict” (Red Pepper (2), 2014). So there must be done something wrong by the government and the plans that Museveni had in the 1990 unto 2014.

Fourth Point: Diplomatic Weapons (Museveni, 2000, S: 139).

If you handle diplomacy in the right way and manner then will you get the weapons you need, and when you need them. So that continuance of weapons needed to combat counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni, 2000, S: 139-140). If the numbers from NationMaster can be used as a guideline, approximant number of UPDF forces (exact number of forces in 2000) it was 50.000 Armed Combat Forces. Battle-related deaths were in 2007 up to 91. The price of the army per capita was 6, 13 USD. Use of GDP was 2, 9% was in 2006, in 2013 down to 1, 8 % of GDP. Personnel for the army were up 47.000 in 2005. The amount of Weapons Holdings the UPDF had in 2001 was 286.000 (NationMaster, 2014). So if this numbers are somewhere near the truth of today’s picture, Museveni sure has made a well spent with Diplomatic Weapons.

Short LRA:

This was how Museveni himself in 1990 commented on how the Ugandan government should succeed in beating the issue of counterrevolutionary insurgency. This week we saw the second guerilla group in 20 years attacking northern parts of Uganda. The most famous one is LRA (Lord Resistance Army). LRA now is on the run between Central African Republic (C.A.R), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan; they are on the run from UPDF who is going after them there. This has led to clashes with ‘Seleka’ in C.A.R which wasn’t intended in general, but rumors are out that ‘Seleka’ is supporting LRA (Ronan, 2014).

Short history of ADF:

It started first of in Uganda as Ugandan Muslim Liberation Army (UMLA) this after they accused NRA (NRM) killing Muslims in 1979 at Nyamitaga in Mbabara and also the killings of Muslims at Butambala near Mpigi (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). UMLA was founded in January in 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). Monarchist of the Baganda Kingdom of Uganda wasn’t happy with the restoration of the Kabaka Mutesa II that happened in 1993 and became only a cultural institution with no power. Allied Democratic Movement (ADM) was founded in London later in January 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 85). The UMLA had it firsts attacks were in February at Buseruka, near Lake Albert in Bunyoro. This was on 20-28 February 1995 and went bad for the UMLA. So they fled the area and settled down in Bunia in DRC. Through the met of Tabliq a Khartoum supported group who worked together with Sudanese Army Security Service who controlled at the time Bunia Airbase and Khartoum was hostile to Uganda and NRM (Prunier, 2009, S: 86). This sponsored relationship from Khartoum led to the alliance of the ADM and the UMLA, whom became in the DRC the ADF (Prunier, 2009, S: 87).

ADF made a mark 13. November 1996. Museveni called Mobutu and told he would enter DRC to attack the ADF guerillas at their bases in Kasindi, DRC and Mobutu was surprised. Then leader of ADF Ssentamatu Kayiira said “to reintroduce multi party politics in Uganda, stop Museveni’s nepotism giving all the juicy jobs to Westerns (meaning people from Ankoli and Kigenzi) and re-establish cordial relations with Uganda’s neighbor” (Prunier, 2009, S: 120.121). This made Museveni enters the conflict at the time in DRC and fight ADF in Bunia and Kasindi (Prunier, 2009, S: 121). By mid-October in 1998 Museveni went into Sudan to fight to both strike back at LRA and also ADF since they got air support from Juba, the numbers was up to 50.000 IDPs in January 1998 and by July 70.000. Amama Mbabazi was commenting on this at the time: “Khartoum’s plan is to destabilize the region to prepare the ground for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and Arabism”(Prunier, 2009, S: 196).

MONUC (UN Peacekeeping Force in DRC) hunted down with FARDC the ADF in late December 2005 where they ended up killing 86 ADF combatants (Prunier, 2009, S: 208).

Later the ADF still exists, but not only as guerrilla force on the footholds of Ruwenzori to a rogue mining company. They are not seeing in Kampala as a threat anymore, but something of the past (Prunier, 2009, S: 321,322).

ADF Now:

Recently suggest that ADF-NALU has 800 to 1.400 combatants in the DRC-Uganda. The funding of the organization is off Illegal logging and gold-mining, this money is being handled with a network of cars and motorcycles, this then being transferred to and from London, Kenya and Uganda. There has been attempts crush the guerrilla army in 2005 and 2010 (IRIN, 2014).

Lt. Col Paddy Ankunda of the UPDF and he comments: “The threat is real. ADF is recruiting, training and opening new camps in eastern DRC. We are alert and very prepared to deal with any attack on our side of the border” (…)”We are sharing intelligence information with the DRC government [and] FARDC [DRC’s national army] about their activities. We hope FARDC will be able to deal with the group” (…)”There is no doubt; ADF has a linkage with Al-Shabab. They collaborate. They have trained ADF on the use of improvised explosive devices” (…)”What is worrying us is that the ADF has been carrying out a series of abductions, recruitment and attacks in DRC without much resistance from FARDC”(IRIN 2, 2013). This is after what he said in 2013 and still nothing said about in international press or any action from them.

Stephen Oola commented also: “The allegations that ADF is regrouping are not new and should not come as a surprise. What should worry us as a country is the apparent collective amnesia of treating our own exported armed insurgencies as other people’s problems” (…)”The LRA [Lord’s Resistance Army] and ADF are Uganda’s problems and will remain so, no matter where they are located at a particular time, until we seek a comprehensive solution to conflicts in this country”(IRIN 2, 2013).

Museveni commented himself to African Report this in August 2013: “I have told President Kabila and the UN that they should deal with these killers” (…)”We can’t have neighbours who are murderers. ADF killers are in Congo, if they dare to if they dare to attack Uganda they will suffer the consequences” (…)”I urge Ugandans to look after our people fleeing the conflict in Congo. These are our people, the boundaries are foreign” (…)”Slowly by slowly we shall bring Africa back together. An elephant always carries the weight of its tasks however heavy” (Olukya, 2013).

Museveni congratulates Kabila on 2. December 2013 said “The DRC army operations overrun the headquarters of the ADF in the Eastern Region. I want to thank President Kabila and congratulate him upon this successful operation of flashing out the ADF” (NewVision.co.ug, 2014).

What Museveni failed with his counterrevolutionary insurgency plans from 1990?

My suggestion would be that he didn’t follow the four points of the 1990 military document given to Bombo Military Academy in Uganda. Museveni and UPDF can’t fight the right wars since they can’t have done that, then this kind of armies wouldn’t exist still after 20 years and making havoc in Kasese and Bundibugyo. The cause for safety of their own citizens should be JUST one, but does this matter at this point for the UPDF? They are used in Somalia, South Sudan, DRC and C.A.R, are there still forces to use in the country? If they are, where are they stationed at and how hungry are they? Since you can’t let the ADF just walk into your territory and start shooting without any warning, then killing both army personnel and also civilians.Politicizing the population is captured in the second point, how can a government and police let a guerrilla just walk over the borders and make hazardous event and tragic outcome. That UPDF isn’t stronger in the area must be a wake-up call for the brigadiers and generals of the Ugandan Army. This must be an answer to the ADF battles in 2013 and now their revenging the UPDF and DRC army. Fourth point is Diplomatic Weapons, I am sure that Museveni and UPDF getting the weapons he need. He has recently been in Russia and become more connected to them, also his ties to USA in the fight against LRA and the Al.Shabab in Somalia. UPDF is sure getting the modern weapons of this time from them and sure it’s part of the aid.

The sad new reports from several sources:

Paddy Akunda: “There was an attack by tribal gunmen on our barracks in Bundibugyo [Western Uganda] and we repulsed them, killing so far 41 of the attackers. The operation is ongoing”(AllAfrica.com, 2014). Ms Namaye says: “he attackers were coordinated by local leader and politicians, who are yet to be interrogated” (…)”Investigations are pointing to area politicians and a witch doctor who hails from Democratic Republic of Congo who helped them attack out stations” (Bagala, 2014). Lt. Ninsiima Rwemijuma has commented: “More than 80 suspected militants are now in custody”. The military is saying ‘it’s not a full blown insurgency’. They suspects it to be: Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu. Who is a part of the Bakonzo tribe and have a long tense relationship with neighboring tribe Bamba. Rwemijuma continues: “It is hard to confirm that this is a rebel group or not” (…)”This is a subject matter that needs investigation” (Muhumuza, 2014).

More interesting reports are armed men went into the barracks of Kasese and took ammunition from the place. Also fears of civil war sparking off in Kampala. Even UPDF Officer has reported that tanks has vanished and soldiers. Muzhoozi is reported also to hold a dozen meetings over the political unrest (Welinformers.com, 2014).

I mean it today:

Peace!

Links:

AllAfrica.com: ‘Uganda: Dozens Killed in Clash With Ugandan Police’ (06.07.2014), Links:http://allafrica.com/stories/201407070244.html?aa_source=mf-hdlns

Bagala, Andrew (Monitor.co.ug), – Death toll in Kasese, Bundibugyo attacks rises to 90, (Updated: 07.07.2014). Links:http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Death-toll-in-Kasese–Bundibugyo-attacks–rises-to-90/-/688334/2374884/-/cewe5b/-/index.html

IRIN – ReliefWeb: ‘Briefing: ADF-NALU militia in DRC’ (27.01.2014), Links:http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/briefing-adf-nalu-militia-drc

IRIN 2 – ‘DRC-based Ugandan rebel group “recruiting, training”’ (11.07.2013), Links:http://www.irinnews.org/report/98400/drc-based-ugandan-rebel-group-recruiting-training

Kashambuzi, Eric (the London Evening Post) – Why Uganda has failed to develop and eradicate poverty (Updated: 05.07.2014), Links: http://www.thelondoneveningpost.com/features/why-uganda-has-failed-to-develop-and-eradicate-poverty/2/

Muhumuza, Rodney (AP) – ‘Fears of rebellion as Uganda’s army battles gunmen’, Stripes.com, (07.07.2014), Links: http://www.stripes.com/news/africa/fears-of-rebellion-as-uganda-s-army-battles-gunmen-1.292272

Museveni, Yoweri K. – What Is Africa’s Problem? (2000), University Of Minnesota Press, USA.

NewVision Reporter – ‘Museveni hails Kabila for flashing out ADF rebels’, (10.02.2014), Links:http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/652370-museveni-hails-kabila-for-flashing-out-adf-rebels.html

NationMaster.com: Uganda Military Stats (Read 07.07.2014), NationMaster (Updated I don’t know), Links:http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/Uganda/Military

Olukya, Godfrey – ‘Uganda: Museveni warns DRC rebels’, African Report, (06.08.2013), Links: http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/uganda-museveni-warns-drc-rebels.html

Red Pepper: ‘State Of The Gov’t Schools In Uganda’ (Updated: 02.07.2014), Links: http://www.redpepper.co.ug/state-of-the-govt-schools-in-uganda/

Red Pepper (2): ‘Kulayigye: Uganda Not Ready for Truth Telling’ (29.05.2014), Links:http://www.redpepper.co.ug/kulaigye-uganda-not-ready-for-truth-telling/

Ronan, Paul: Behind the headlines: ‘UPDF clashes with Seleka in eastern CAR’ (02.07.2014), Links: http://www.theresolve.org/2014/07/behind-the-headlines-updf-clashes-with-seleka-in-the-car/

Prunier, Gerard: Africa’s World War (2009), Oxford University Press. UK

The State House of Uganda: 2014/2015 budget poised to boost infrastructure sector (02.06.2014) Links: http://www.statehouse.go.ug/media/news/2014/06/12/20142015-budget-poised-boost-infrastructure-sector

UGO.Co.Ug: UPDF Officers Demonstrate Skills Acquired In Intense Training (02.07.2014), Links: http://news.ugo.co.ug/updf-officers-demonstrate-skills-acquired-intense-training/

WelInformers.com: ‘Senior UPDF officers vanish with military hardware, Museveni, Muhoozi hold meetings’ (07.07.2014, Links:http://www.weinformers.net/2014/07/07/senior-updf-officers-vanish-with-military-hardware-museveni-muhoozi-hold-meetings/

World Bank: Uganda GDP – (Updated 2014), Links: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/uganda/gdp

FDC Press release(svar til) State of the Nation Adress(mer spennende lesing!)

THE 2013 STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS THAT NEVER WAS
The Truth that the President Should Have told Ugandans

1. The tradition of a President delivering a State of the Nation Address was never part of our constitutional tradition until the promulgation of the 1995 Constitution. When this requirement was enshrined in article 101, it was intended that the President, on an annual basis, gives a full account to Ugandan citizens and taxpayers, through their elected representatives, the State of our Nation. The State of the Nation address is therefore an address to appraise the Nation about the state of our democracy, the state of our economy, the state of our socio-economic infrastructure, the state of public service delivery, the state of our military, and the state of our international relations, among others.

2. It is therefore disappointing to see that after 27 years of leading this country, President Museveni would address the Nation and fail to address the issues that are central to the citizens of Uganda. In 2001, he deceived the Nation and wrote in his election manifesto that he was seeking the mandate to lead Uganda for the last term of office. Since then, he has deceived our teachers, our health workers, university professors and all Ugandans. At this rate, deception and corruption could turn out to be the most enduring legacy of his presidency.

3. The President needs to be truthful to Ugandans to the fact that what he calls the 10 strategic bottlenecks is a clear manifestation of his failed leadership. If he failed to end “ideological disorientation” through his Muchaka Muchaka courses, it only means that he is pursuing an ideologically disoriented system. If he hasn’t succeeded in building the pillars of state after 27 years in power, it means that all along he has pursued a wrong strategy. After 27 years at the helm of leadership, he can’t be talking about promoting the private sector or modernizing agriculture or developing the human resources of our country as if he started leading Uganda yesterday. That is being disingenuous.

4. What Mr. Museveni should be telling Ugandans in a State of the Nation Address is what he has done to build the pillars of state, what progress has he made and when does he hope to complete this undertaking? How does the increase in population from 14 million to 35 million constitute the development of human resource capital? The World Bank (2010) projects that at the current level of Mr. Museveni Government’s investment in education, Uganda’s labor force in 2030 will be worse off in terms of education attainment than that of Ghana in 2010 and lower than what South Korea and Malaysia were in 1970. Mr. Museveni’s Government projects to increase its percentage of the labor force with secondary education to 48 percent in the next 20 years by 2030. Malaysia achieved a 60 percent target in 10 years. Ghana has projected to raise its percentage of the labor force with post-primary education from 60 percent in 2010 to 80 percent by 2030.

5. Mr. Museveni has told the story of our economic growth for the last two decades but this is not our main point of contention. What we contested and what he continues to run away from at every State of the Nation Address is what does that growth mean to ordinary Ugandans? What does the 5.1% GDP growth or the size of GDP mean to the 400,000 young men and women that come through our tertiary education system to look for jobs in a jobless market? Out of every 100 youth of this country, 83 of them have no formal employment. What does the increase in revenue collection mean to these youth or how many jobs did his Government create over the last financial year? What does 3.6% inflation mean to hardworking business men and women who have to pay the highest interest rates in this region? How can he pursue monetary and fiscal policies that kill businesses through high interest rates and he calls it strengthening the private sector?

6. We will call upon Parliament, through the Leader of the Opposition, to put the President’s address to more rigorous scrutiny for it to pass for a State of the Nation Address. Parliament voted for over UGX10 trillion to be spent during the financial year ending June 30, 2013. Where is the commencement of works on the railway line that he promised in the last address? Where are the works for the Karuma project? How many kilometers of paved roads did the Government add on the Nation’s road network and what should we expect for the next financial year? How does the President account for the 16 mothers that continue to die every day after the taxpayer and donor money that has been sunk into our health services system?

7. Year after year, Mr. Mueseveni has deceived the country by committing and then failing to increase salaries or improving the working conditions of our teachers, health workers, and the men and women who service in our police services and the armed forces. The lame explanation is that Government has a limited resource envelop and everybody has to be patient by waiting for money from oil. But this Government squandered over UGX500 billions during the CHOGM debacle. A businessman walked away with UGX162 billion for building ghost markets. Without shame, over UGX6 billion meant for buying bicycles for village council leaders was stolen under his watch.

8. Of course if Mr. Museven cared, he would use the opportunity presented by the State of the Nation Address to announce major reforms to cut down the size of his bloated Government and the wastage associated with it, confront the cancer of corruption and channel the resources saved from such reforms to implement programmes that benefit had working Ugandans such as teachers, health workers, and the men and women who serve in our armed forces. On the contrary, he has become an expert, not in solving the problems facing the country, but by blaming others for his failures. Leadership by deception and blaming your failures on others has never been a formula for transformation of Nations.

9. You are all aware that some of our men and women in the UPDF are in faraway lands in Somalia, Central African Republic and elsewhere. These men and women are some of the best of our citizens because they pay the ultimate sacrifice in fighting terror, contributing to our pan African agenda and most importantly, safeguarding our freedoms and our democracy. The State of the Nation Address is a singular opportunity to recognize the sacrifice of these gallant men and women who carry our Nation’s flag in some of the most dangerous and treacherous environments. To fail to recognize their service in a State of the Nation address is to fail the litmus test of what such an address should cover. In any case, Parliament and the country should expect the President to appraise the Nation on the strategic policy goals of these deployments and the exist plan that enables our officers and men to be reunited with their families at an appropriate time.

10. The State of the Nation address is commanded by our Constitution which is the foundation of our emerging democracy. No doubt, there has been checkered progress in our democracy mainly expressed in our ability to hold regular elections. However, the gross imperfections in our democratization process epitomized in the excessive use of money, rampant rigging and election violence are all issues that a President should address in a State of the Nation Address. The increasing onslaught on free speech, the attacks on the media, the continuing harassment of organized civil society and the pushback on progressive and independent minded Members of Parliament are clear manifestations of democratic reversals.

11. Ugandans expected the President to outline the building blocks that his Government intends to pursue to strengthen our democracy enterprise: what is the road map to free and fair elections to 2016? What is the agenda and timeline for electoral reforms? Does the President hope to provide leadership on the restoration of presidential term limits? Does he have a succession plan or doesn’t he see his failure to organize a peaceful transition as putting him squarely in the docket of the previous leaders?

12. It is unfortunate that Mr. Museven’s rule is coming to an end before he is able to comprehend the simple fact that the best way to benchmark a country’s success and transformation is not to benchmark it against the failures of the past or the failures of others. Leaders that help nations achieve transformation benchmark their successes against a shared vision, targets and timeframes.

13. Mr. Museveni has for the last 27 years put more energy in blaming others for his failures rather than focusing on what he should have accomplished given the good will that Ugandans gave him and the resources at his disposal. Let me also remind him that deception, corruption, oppression and intolerance that have become the hallmark of his rule are not a winning formula for achieving socio-economic transformation. Unemployed youth, under resourced public sector workers or traders cannot be teargased into increasing productivity. History has taught us that it is only political and economic freedom that are capable of unleashing the ingenuity of a people to transform a nation. And you don’t need 27 years to learn that. I implore the President to use the remaining 3 years of his presidency to redirect his energies towards pursuing an agenda that strengthens our democracy and growing the economy to create jobs

14. In conclusion, the Forum for Democratic Change will shortly unveil an alternative development agenda aimed at putting our country on a growth trajectory that creates jobs, ensure the dignity of every Uganda and transforms our country.
For God and my Country
Major General (Rtd) Mugisha Muntu
President
Forum for Democratic Change

(Håper du likte å lese dette til å svare på den forrige saken jeg la ut!).