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Archive for the tag “FY 2015/2016”

Uganda: Civil Society Position on Tax Revenue Measures for FY 2017/18 (21.04.2017)

Report from the MoFPED shows the growing Ugandan debt by June 2016!

Again, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) dropped another report on the fiscal policies and the fiscal health of the economy in Uganda. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) have created this environment as the growing debt and growing interest payment comes with their planned debt rise. Still, the PriceWaterhouseCoopers spelled gloom earlier in the year, as this report was dropped on the MoFPED web page today. Even if the Report was spelled out in December 2016. It is if like the NRM didn’t want this to spelled out early. Since the numbers aren’t compelling of an arts piece, more issues… just take a look!

The stock of total public debt grew from US$ 7.2 billion at the end of June 2015 to US$ 8.4 billion in June 2016. This represents an increase from 30.6% of GDP to 33.8% over the two periods. The increase was largely on account of external debt, which grew from US$ 4.4 billion to US$ 5.2 billion over the period. Domestic debt increased from US$ 2.8 billion to US$ 3.2 billion” (MoFPED, P:V, 2016).

That the debt are growing quick, as the public debt grew with US$ 1.2 billion, that the percentage of GDP went up with 3,2%, the external debt rose with US$ 0.8 billion and the Domestic debt went up US$ 0.4 billion. All of these numbers show the amount of monies that the Government are adding on their debt, as the UNRA and the development projects are suspended by World Bank. So the Infrastructure development can be questioned as the growing debt, as the government must have other uses of the growing and scaled up debt. Since the transparency of the economy isn’t there and that the sanctioned bills comes from the State House. Just look at the growing interest rates as well.

Interest Payment as a percentage of GDP stood at 2.2% as at end June 2016, up from 1.9% as at June 2015. The increase is largely explained by interest payments on domestic debt, which grew from Shs 1,077 billion in FY2014/15 to 1,470 billion in FY2015/16. There was a significant increase in the weighted average interest rate of Government debt; from 5.9% to 6.5% in June 2015/16. This followed increases in the weighted interest rates for both domestic and external debt, from 13.6% to 15.3% for domestic debt and from 0.9% to 1.2% external debt. As interest rates increase, so do the debt service obligations of Government” (MoFPED, P: 4, 2016).

The difference between June 2015 and June 2016 the percentage has grown with 0.3%, the domestic interest rate grew with Shs. 0.393 billion. The Interest rate alone went up by percentage 0.6%, as the weighted interest rates went up 1.7%. The key sentence that the report wrote and I repeat: “As interest rates increase, so do the debt service obligations of Government”.

That idea isn’t only on the interest payment percentages are running higher, but as the debt goes up, the interests goes up. So the Debt Service Obligations are going up for the Government. This is a natural outcome, that the obligations for the state goes up with the amount of debt it rises. So the government can try to portray this is controlled, and to one extent it is under control. Still, the growth in this regard proves that the NRM regime are pilling up debt and increasing their debt, as well as interests. In the end this will make the state worse. Especially knowing that the energy dams have been built poorly and many of the expensive roads haven been fruitful. This is development that the growing debt is being used to…

So the NRM regime and the Ugandan government isn’t believable… the rise of debt and interests show’s the current state of affairs. Even if the percentage is after plan, the government still has to take charge and make sure they can pay back both the debt and interests. Peace.

Reference:

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) – ‘DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

ANALYSIS REPORT 2015/16’

The NRM Regime have during the FY2015/2016 fallen behind on paying out UGX 2.7 trillion!

Today I am dropping numbers that are devastating, as the numbers of debt that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) isn’t paying, show’s sufficient motives for malpractice when it comes to budgeting and the structure of payments. There are certainly not enough transparency and clear audit of the state reserves, as the State is misusing seriously amount of funds. The NRM Regime and their President should be ashamed by their record.

Emmanuel Katongole is the Head Information Technology in the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) in Uganda on the 12th April 2017, he dropped a document on their web-page that show’s the domestic arrears of the Republic of Uganda in the last Financial Year.

If you wonder what Domestic Arrears means: “The amount by which a government has fallen behind in its payment of interest and principal on debt to lenders within its own country” (Encyclo.co.uk). So Katongole will literately show how bad the National Resistance Movement is on paying their bills and expenditure. All the sums of this report is in Ugandan Shillings (UGX).

Like under the Office of the President and the Internal Security Organisation (ISO) who itself leaves arrears in the margin of 3.8bn shillings and 8bn shillings in other payable arrears. That one part of the budget and current audit of the Office of the President as the total of verified arrears at June 2016 was 37bn shillings alone. So the Office of the President owes a lot of funds that it hasn’t paid, not only for the ISO!

The State House by the verified arrears at June 2016 was 1bn shillings. What is more unsettling is that the Pensions and Gratitude for Veterans are the sum of 183bn shillings, Survivors 315bn shillings, EXGRATIA 10bn and UNLA 26bn shillings. The Ministry of Defense by June 2016 verified arrears was 718bn shillings! So the MoD are a lax payer of their expenses and expenditure.

Ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs owes verified arrears by June 2016 the amount of 684bn. Shillings Court Awards unpaid by the Ministry is 203bn shillings. The Electoral Commission has growing verified arrears by June 2016 because of Unsettled penal insterest for URA in the total sum of 3.2bn shillings. Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) has by June 2016 billed up verified arrears by 283bn shillings.

This is just some of the government that has not paid their dues and their expenses, their salaries or pensions, even their lacking covering of funds to pay debt, either internal or external. So the National Resistance Movement are clearly running an economy and fiscal policy that isn’t healthy for the republic.

Just to drop the total sum that the Government of Uganda has failed to pay or failed payments on their debt are by June 2016 the total of 2.7 Trillions of Uganda Shillings! Which is an insane number and amount of misspent monies by the state. The strategy by the Republic to fail so miserably cannot be sustainable, as the invoices and the target to pay their debt should be the most important. Still, the NRM doesn’t seem to think so. They are surely missing steps to having a sound economy when the verified arrears are hitting 2.7 trillions by June 2016. So the Financial Year of 2015/2016, the Ugandan government failed to serve out over 2 trillion of their needed expenses!

What is troubling that the year before, the total state had not paid on their debt and failing expenses in the Financial Year of 2014/2015 as by June 2015 we’re totally 1.389 or close to 1.4 Trillion shillings. So the miss-match between FY2014/2015 and FY 2015/2016 are 1.3 Trillion shillings. So the clear picture is that the Election Year for the NRM is very, very expensive.

Just think about that… eat the bill and pound on the amount of lost monies in the system. Peace.

 

Opinion: These two ideas shouldn’t be thing in 2017: Goats for tuition fees and Jerrycan-Irrigation!

NRM in July 2016 in Kakinga in Western Uganda.

In the Republic of Uganda and Zimbabwe there are two issues that should not occur or need to happen, as the societies under Zimbabwean African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and National Resistance Movement (NRM), that President Robert Mugabe and President Yoweri Museveni has been the Executives for decades.

These two republics has both their issues concerning these gentleman, though not the same. Still, the republics has some dire needs. You know so, when President Museveni has to spread this message in the year of 2017:

I continue to encourage farmers to use drip irrigation. Even as we wait for government to roll out mass irrigation, farmers can irrigate their crops with basic tools like bottles. No one should let seedlings go to waste on claims of drought yet we are surrounded by water” (Yoweri Museveni, 16.04.2017).

The Jerrycan and bottle irrigation mantra in the land of steady progress, you can wonder and pound about the agriculture reforms that was about to happen when the NRM came into power. Where the wealth creation and the cash crops we’re supposed to change the economic landscape. Still, since the Movement ceased power in 1986, the same President as back-then has to spread the message of a drip-drop irrigation system based on bottles and jerrycans. Instead of modern agriculture, because of how he misused the state reserves and the donated aid. Therefore, the lacking facilitation of agriculture. So it is sad to know that the President Museveni has to propagandize the jerrycan irrigation system, like it is a fantastic invention and something that would really be a paradigm shift.

Than you have in Zimbabwe, the county of the Lancaster House Agreement, the ZANU-PF elite and the Bond-Notes, with a massive movement behind the voices of opposition, as well as the financial troubles under President Mugabe. Who has turned the Southern African breadbasket unto a food-import heaven as his land-reforms has destroyed the agricultural production as well as the economic climate. Therefore this news shouldn’t be a thing of 2017!

Parents who cannot raise tuition fees for children can offer livestock in lieu of payment or do chores for learning institutions, a Cabinet minister has said. The Sunday Mail understands that several State-run primary schools in Glen View, Harare have already adopted the arrangement. Primary and Secondary Education Minister Dr Lazarus Dokora told this paper last week, “Our schools have to be flexible and ensure those who do not have money to pay fees can work. For example, if there is a builder in the community, he/she must be given that opportunity to work as a form of payment of tuition fees” (…) “On the issue of livestock, the community has to arrange a market where everyone participates; from the school authorities, local leadership and parents themselves to avoid parents being duped” (Gwete, 2017).

So in the proud republic of Zimbabwe the Cabinet Minister Dr. Lazarus Dokora, says parents who doesn’t have enough cash to pay tuition fees can now pay in livestock or goats. We know by now that the faith in the Bond-Notes is abysmal, still that the Republic has such little cash flow; that can take animals as payments. Shows the neglect of the state, the little money circulation and the financial vows right now. If the financial market and the currency we’re in a better condition, than such massive amount of parents wouldn’t have to trade their goats and livestock so their kids can go to school.

That under President Mugabe, the citizens have to use their livestock and goats as trading tools, or even as currency because of the lack of stable financial policies. This shows the draconian state and what sort of government that is in charge. When they are more concerned about their Mercedes Benz’s than the population!

That the Zimbabwean people and citizens of the Republic run by Zanu-PF should feel betrayed by the lack of governance and care of the taxpayers funds. The Zimbabwean people should be in sorrow as even as their state is insufficient, it now has a plan not to only eat their monies, but also take their animals. So that the future of Zimbabwe can learn how to read and write, even type and some hopefully understanding better what it means to be a Statesmen. A Statesmen that cares about its constituent and their struggles, not just eat of it and leave them to rot. That is what the Zanu-PF elite does right now.

What we have have seen with these two stories is clear lack of policies and wish to intervene in the struggles of the citizens. We can see two governments, that is Zanu-PF and NRM, who clearly are both out-of-time and out-of-pocket as they scrap their best ideas to salvage some hope. The hope is that some can be duped by the idea and support the so-called progress. That it is progressive to take goats as currency to pay for tuition and the other revolutionary idea of using bottles and jerrycans to irrigate the dirt. That President Museveni and President Mugabe is over-due is proof with this. The milk is thick and nasty. The milk is not drinkable and if so you will vomit. The reality is that these men doesn’t see or doesn’t want to see.

They are eating of the plate and sells their propaganda, the own mindset of lies and deception, and it has been said so many times that the old-men believes. Even if it isn’t so. The manufactured reality and the destruction of the society, is the reasons for these tales, many factors involved, but the Presidents has been there through the stages. They have seen it all and created policies that has changed to this level of underdevelopment. If they really did care, than the countries would have looked different. If they would have created parliaments for serving cadres for the people and not their own bellies like right now. That is why many of them think these sort of policies are acceptable and even profess to them. Therefore, the republic’s are living in a state they doesn’t deserve and the citizens are used as pawns. Peace.

Reference:

Gwete, Wendy – ‘‘Pay school fees with goats, labour’ (15.02.2017) link:

http://www.sundaymail.co.zw/pay-school-fees-with-goats-labour/

Uganda: UPC Calls for Economic Reforms (05.04.2017)

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for February 2017 (15.02.2016)

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PwC report spells gloom over rising debt in Uganda!

Ugandan shillings

A report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers limited has delivered this month is clearly seeing what others has seen with the economic situation and the use of funds by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and their regime. This report by a company which is an international company who works with other businesses and civil society organizations who needs economic advice and advisory services for taxes and such; therefore the report from PwC on economic situation is telling. Their speciality on their outlook will be saying with auditors and financial analyst whose words means a lot. They are professional analysts in this field are writing and saying this on the economic climate. The Economic climate is worrying and that has been visible. The liability of the growing debt in the republic has been a hazard together with the lacking internal revenue for the state as well. Just take a look!

Sluggish economy with higher debt:

“This bulletin comes at a very crucial time for the Uganda economy when growth is slowing down, private sector credit is on a decline, consumer demand is low, implementation and execution of critical public infrastructure projects is very sluggish, and the public sector debt burden on the economy is at the highest it has ever been” (PwC, P: 3, 2017). “If the domestic revenues collections continue to underperform, the government will be forced to borrow more from the domestic market. The increase in government borrowing may result in a substantial increase in yields on government securities, which may result in an increase in borrowing rates, which may constrain the private sector credit growth even further” (PwC, P: 7, 2017).

Growing debt:

“The Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7% in the past four years from 25.9% of GDP in FY 2012/13, to 38.6% of GDP in FY 2016/17. The debt burden is projected to continue rising to 45% of GDP by 2020. Debt as a percentage of revenues has risen by 54% since 2012 and is expected to exceed 250% by 2018. The country’s ever increasing debt burden has resulted in a deterioration of the debt affordability situation” (PwC, P: 8, 2017). “Uganda’s capital expenditures are still too reliant on external finance. Currently debt servicing constitutes 11% of the total government expenditure, one of the highest debt burdens in sub-Saharan Africa. This is expected to increase to 16% of the total government expenditure by 2018. Uganda’s debt burden has risen faster than the government’s own resources, resulting in a debt-to-revenue ratio of 236%, one of the highest amongst B-rated countries. This has prompted Moody’s recent down grade of Uganda’s long-term bond rating by one notch to B2 from B1” (PwC, P: 8, 2017).

An Economy with challenges:

“2016 was an economically difficult year for Uganda. The economy faced numerous challenges due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the recovery in global economic growth, weak commodity prices and geopolitical events in our key trading partners. As a result, of these numerous challenges, our export earnings, FDI flows and remittances to Uganda all went down. These developments, together with a slowdown in the execution of public investment projects and weaker than expected private sector demand, had a major effect on the economy” (…) “Other internal risks include delays in the implementation of public infrastructure projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) linking Uganda to its East African neighbours, and the key infrastructure projects critical for the commencement of oil production” (PwC, P: 4-5, 2017).

If you are worried by the Republic and their economy after this, than you haven’t followed the class since this signs have been there for while! The state of the economy is fragile and the debt rise should concern all the ones inside the Republic and also outside. However, this could change, but that has to be done by the government and steer in another direction as today. The greed and the common sense of developing the economy is forgotten, as they are fixated on infrastructure projects and oil developments, while borrowing to fill the losses of donor-aid and internal revenue. This could be done in many ways, but that would not be easy. Peace.

Reference:

PricewaterhouseCoopers Limited (PwC) – ‘Uganda Economic Outlook 2017’ (February 2017)

31st Celebration of NRM Regime with a Yellow Jerrycan’s into the future!

NRM in July 2016 in Kakinga in Western Uganda.

NRM in July 2016 in Kakinga in Western Uganda.

The National Resistance Movement had their Celebration Party and unleashed their new ruling-party national newspaper. I thought that was the New Vision? Apparently, I am other we’re wrong on the Bukedde and New Vision ass-kissing mission during the three decades of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Well, there is so much to celebrate for the NRM!

They have yet another election that rigged and had a new number of sole candidates without any competitions. This is a real victory like stealing candy from a little kid. The NRM can be so celebratory as they are having a too small Parliament, having to few cars for their MPs, added more debt every year into the state coffers with added interest rates on these loans. Together with the waiting of petroleum monies that seems more and more likely to happen closer to 2020 than ever.

NRM can celebrate that they have had a bunch of Vice Presidents, but none has outlasted the long-serving rebel on the throne, that has installed the Jerrycan irrigations as the State cannot afford proper relief or modern irrigation to the their farmers. The cash crops are also struggling as well as staple-food, even the cattle is dying in the cattle-corridor. The NRM has certainly built a perfect nation.

The Uganda Airways, Uganda Telecom, Uganda Broadcasting Company and others  are either gone, near depleted or living on their last legs. UTL the phone company is dead-broke and on life-support. UBC is the only State financed Television Company that couldn’t afford to get licence to send the African Cup of Nations from Gabon this AFCOM2017. NRM has so much to celebrate.

Certainly the lucky guests who got a Presidential Handshake can be all smiles and grin, as the illegitimate government are postponing and struggling with infrastructure projects, as they are all embezzlement projects for the UNRA to trick monies out of the state. The expenses or building roads have sky-rocketed, the Mukono – Katosi Road Project and Kampala – Entebbe Expressway is examples of the open-air bazar of looting under the NRM.

We can question the ambition of the NRM, as they have included all sorts of missions and promises. Most of them shelved out every election cycle, but then forgotten when the NRM MPs and President has entered the Parliament Avenue. The certainty of Steady Progress isn’t there, except for puppy talk of the loyal Musevenists.

nrm-m7-july-2016

This can be said as National Medicak Stores (NMS) are often empty of needed medicines or issuing issues with the sale of copy medicines that we’re not supposed to be on the market. The Hospitals lacking medicines, enough trained personnel, lacking payment structures and salaries as the nurses and teachers even have cash-crops or other jobs to survive. The lacking structure and care for the Health Care is evident as the Nobel men and honourable are travelling abroad for their curing of sickness, as even some of the Generals are suddenly dying as they are travelling to their Asian allies.

We can question if the NRM should celebrate that Nakasero Hospital is now seen as the National Referral Hospital instead of the historic hospital, the Kings Hospital Mulago, the Mulago Referral Hospital Complex that is even missing a well-working cancer machine. The only one that was last bought in 1990s and early in the reign of the NRM! The NRM forgot their mission and let it dwindle like so many other institutions; there are many hospitals without working X-Ray machines and other needed equipment to help the sick patience. This is happening on the daily. The responsibility of this fate is their maladministration and it’s all in the hands of the NRM.

Certainly they can take their Jerry-Cans into the future, with the yellow t-shirts and yellow flags. Still forgetting their mission and their purpose, they have forgotten why they exists! Since they are now only bowing their knees for the Mzee instead of workingfor the citizens. Right now the liberation was only liberating Museveni, but letting everybody else being under his mercy. That isn’t freedom, liberty or justice. That is a dictatorship and Museveni is dictating everything and behind all acts. Just like the biggest scam of 2017, the Presidential Handshake. That proves how little NRM Regime has to really celebrate. Peace.

CSBAG Statement: The Budget We Want 2017/18 (20.01.2017)

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Opinion: Ugandan Government rising debt levels, brings fear of higher inflation, devalued currency and defaulting on the debt!

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Well, an election year and campaigning as a tyrant and dictator cost, the fortunes splashed on fellow peers and citizens to buy goodwill costs. The price usually happens after the splash funds on villages and on buses. The estimated exhaust of funds and State House can strain the economy. Therefore after elections in the past there been rising food-prices, more expensive oil and gas and other needed imported goods for the average citizen.

This is happening as the donor-community doesn’t have the same faith in the Movement or the President that been there since 1986. His longevity is now hurting him, as his tricks of trade isn’t building steady progress, instead he is using up every single allocation to make sure the loyal servants and movement peers are paid-in-full, even as his own party haven’t paid salaries for months. There are rumours of how the Special Force Command with Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has gotten their salaries received as much there are questions of the government bailouts of the friends and business-mates of Gen. Salim Selah.

Still, the economic problems continue to arise, the ill-minded would say there hope of wealth, but the lack of transparency, misused funds as the Uganda Revenue Authority – Oil Money scheme and other’s prove there are lacking accountability for how the government funds are spent. This with the knowledge of the lacking salaries to teachers and even Local Government funds that are spent without concern of showing where it got spent; all these activities doesn’t give confidence and trust between the stakeholders and citizens.

With all of this in mind the revelation that the growing debt are now eating too much of government spending, as the arising splashing of funds to civil servants are happening; the reports from Bank of Uganda (BoU) isn’t a beautiful fairy-tale, instead it is doom.

“In its state-of-the-economy report for December 2016, BOU said: “There are also perceptions in the market that Uganda may not be able to service its rising debt levels.” (…) “The central bank said external debt has grown rapidly and, on a commitment basis, is now estimated at $10.7bn as at end of October 2016. BOU said: “A lump up [in] infrastructure investment has contributed to a rise in our debt portfolio in recent years.” (…) “Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7 per cent to 38.6 per cent of GDP in 2016/17 from 25.9 per cent of GDP in 2012/13. BOU says it is projected to continue rising towards 45 per cent of GDP by 2020” (Mwesigwa, 2017).

Highlights on the 2015/16 budget (New Vision Graphic)

Highlights on the 2015/16 budget (New Vision Graphic)

That the Movement and the NRM are not able to service their debt, is an indication and will also create a problem with the banks and multi-national financial institutions that has offered these loans to help the government with the day-to-day operations of a sufficient government, as well as offering loans to promising infrastructure projects. These all are now in danger of defaulting loans. These levels are estimated to become 45% of the income of the Republic, which is not the sign of riches; more of poverty and mismanagement. The Executive that has been leading the nations for the decades have seen the signs of the wall, but instead of telling the truth; he has promised industrial revolution and amazing progress that would be bigger than when the United Kingdom found out how to earn money on the Steam-Engine. The same kind of promises to become a middle income nation, when your debt burden is arising as rapidly as it is doing now.

This should be worrying as the Movement has revealed and gotten released plans for own total production and releasing own notes, that could also increase possibilities of devaluing the currency, this with growing debt can create a hyper-inflation that only his fellow comrade has been able to create in Zimbabwe. That is the worst case scenario if the bank-notes production gets out of bond to sort of make quick fortunes for the Movement.

The Movement has all their days used any kind of acts to get monies for themselves and hide it away, only when gotten public they needed to have inquiries and detain the ones that not kingpins, but the low-level employees that doesn’t hurt the leadership. Therefore the concern of not a fiscal well-thought monetary policy, as the Movement are more settled on building projects without having to have giant loans from Multi-National Monetary lenders like IMF; AfDB and others. These loans has to be paid back and also with interest. As the Government bonds has also lost their track compared to the need of sufficient funding. These institutional defaults and as well with the lack of clear conscience of the use of funds, shows the Movement has to step up their game if they don’t want their currency and their budget to lack funds for the coming budget year.

The growing loans will also stop the amount of absorbed funds in the republic goes down as the government has to use bigger parts of the resources on loans, as the extended collected funds from URA might have grown, but they are not collecting enough to keep up with the debt. If so they wouldn’t have defaulted and probably would have paid their interest and debt rate as promised when they we’re accepting taking on the debt.

Time for the Movement and their regime to charge, change patterns, their eating as much as they can, but they will leave the next one with a huge bill of no-confidence, while their short-term riches will be spoiled and devalued as the coming depressing economic stability will not give the market and the currency the needed trust as it should has a tool for exchange values between two parties. Peace.

Reference:

Mwesigwa, Alon – ‘CENTRAL BANK WARNS ABOUT RISING DEBT’ (06.01.2017) link: http://www.observer.ug/business/50631-central-bank-warns-about-rising-debt

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