Opinion: Tshisekedi has forgotten his place

President Felix Tshisekedi aka Fatshi and Vital Kamerhe went into a coalition with Kabila’s FCC to create the FCC-CACH Coalition. A way to secure the Presidency and also ensure the needed ceremonial power to someone else than Joseph Kabila. That was all in the cards as the agreements was written and accepted. This was all a way of locking out Lamuka and their coalition from ceasing power.

The FCC have gotten most of the representatives, it has the majority in Parliament and in the regional governments across the Republic. The Kabila party and alliance is the strongest partner. The CACH, the UDPS and UNC is weak already. It doesn’t help Tshisekedi that his ally and the one he went into election with Kamerhe is behind bars and lingering in jail. That doesn’t boost the relations with the UNC.

The consultations made now by Tshiskedi is a supposed power move. Also, because the President doesn’t appreciate Prime Minister Sylvestre Ilunga Ilukamba, an ally of Kabila in the near midsts of the Presidency. However, the President got no choice either, as he is caught in the middle of Kamerhe and Kabila. Kamerhe is lost and his party too in a way. While Kabila holds all the cards to his chest.

That why Kabila has control of his ranks and his coalition, the FCC. They are all in line and working according to him. CACH is failing ahead and on a loosing streak. That is the President own misgivings and lack to detail. He sought so much the Presidency, that he forgot the finer prints and details of it all. Where Kabila have the upper hand and can await the storm.

Tshisekedi doesn’t have much wiggle room. That is why there is a sudden speculations of appointing Lamuka’s Moise Katumbi to the next Prime Minister. To have someone who will be loyal to the President and not Kabila. However, Katumbi is running his G-7/Ensemble and is one of the leaders of Lamuka. That would be betraying that and the Lamuka cause. Which is several of parties. Leaders of the Opposition, who shouldn’t get involved in these sort of government structure.

Neither will Katumbi give any legitimacy to the President. Yes, his beloved and has a standing as a politician. That is why Kabila have sent him into exile and blocked him from entering the Republic. Nevertheless, he does not have the electorate behind him and have the stature that give the ones in reign peace. Therefore, doing this is a gamble for them both and they will both end up loosing.

Kabila might allow it for a little time. But as Kamerhe went down and got court sided. Expect Kabila to have something up his sleeve, if the President dears to challenge him. That will be bloody and there will not be a merciful approach between them. Tshisekedi will regret doing that and Katumbi would be better off without the appointment.

Fatshi will only use Katumbi. There will be no victory or resounding fanfare. Kabila will lurk in the chambers and look out for missteps or find something from the past to haunt him. It will not a positive thing. Katumbi should learn the lesson from Kamerhe and see what happened to him. It will be no different with him.

Kabila is the one running the show from behind the scenes. Fatshi might want it otherwise, but then again. He accepted this arrangement and took the ceremonial piece. Fatshi accepted to be the middle-man and the one cutting ribbons. While Kabila have his fingers all over the place and calling the shots without being elected anywhere. That is what Fatshi accepted and signed over.

Now the pot is calling the kettle back. Fatshi will not win his, but only loose. It is just a matter of how much. Also, how much Kabila wants to humiliate him as well. Peace.

RDC: Mouvement pour l’Eveil de Conscience et la Libération du Congo ( MELC) – Communique de Presse – Concerne: Sanglante incursion armes a Lubumbashi et tentative de balkanisation (27.09.2020)

Opinion: Reminiscing about Maj. Gen. Kazini [and will Museveni launch a “new breed” of military entrepreneurialism in North Kivu?]

This isn’t a far fetched, ancient history and such. Many of the men behind the ills of the past is still lingering around. They are in the chambers of powers, having titles and being called “honourable”. These men used their opportunities in the past to earn fortunes on the misery of others. They created massive networks, supported local militias and forged companies to ensure wealth. These was Generals, High Ranking Officials and Associates of the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

This they did across the Democratic Republic of Congo. These men in question was Gen. Salim Selah, Gen. Kahinda Otafiire and Maj. Gen. James Kazini. They we’re all participating in the plundering, the looting and the illicit resource flight from the DRC to Uganda. They ensured the military presence and their allies could extract, steal and operate illegal businesses to profit out of. That was all done with the blessing of the “High Above” in Kampala.

Today, I started to reminiscing about Maj. Gen. James Kazini, the late General who was killed by his girlfriend in 2009. That was year after the war in the DRC ended. The man who had together with various of factions, barriers to market and usage of force made it possible to enrich himself on the conflict. He together with Gen. Salim Selah secured companies like Victoria Group. Victoria Group even had as one of their shareholders being Gen. Muhoozi Kainerubaga. That’s why this enterprise was supported, all from the top!

The Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) used the power they had in the region to exploit the mineral resource and re-export it. Like selling diamonds, gold and coffee as Ugandan, but it origins was from the DRC.

Therefore, knowing all this, as the news of the Cabinet Meeting in Entebbe on Monday this week. Which stated building road-network in the North Kivu Province. I cannot help to think, that it’s not only a wet-dream for road-scandal with tenders, lost funds and ghosts. Also with the history of the UPDF. The history of men like Maj. Gen. Kazini. There could be people willing to profit from the sins of the past again. Especially, profitable mineral resources as cobalt and others, which happens to be in North Kivu.

So, if Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) is building the roads in North Kivu. Then, the President and his team will come excuses that the UPDF need a battalion to ensure the safety of contractors and engineers. While, the same army will also configure ways to participate in more military entrepreneurialism in the province. That would be a way to kick-back and make it profitable.

That the UPDF and UNRA would do this wouldn’t be shocking. There is to much resources and possible exploits for them to not grab it. Even if it is a illicit business and illegal. Still, to this day the Ugandan government is exploiting Congolese gold as they are minting it at the Gold Refinery in Entebbe. Which is why, I am thinking there is more plans ahead in North Kivu.

They are not just going there to tarmac some roads and build a bridge or two. No, they are not compensation for the past hurt and looting. No, these men are finding a new way to exploit and profit of the situation. This is the same government that has used Kisoro as a base and supported para-military groups in the DRC. The same government that was a safe-haven for M-23 soldiers. Therefore, I have little trust of the goodwill…

Until proven otherwise. Peace.

Uganda: Cabinet Meeting at the State House authorised building roads in the North Kivu Province! [A new saga begins]

Yesterday on the 28th September 2020 at the State House in Entebbe, the Cabinet Meeting have made several of decisions. These are usually rubber-stamped by the Parliament. Therefore, what they decided is decisive. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its government are really starting a expansive plan.

The NRM are now going forward with building roads in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

These roads are:

Kasinde – Beni (80 Km)

Beni – Butembo Axis (54 km)

Bunagana – Rutshuru – Goma (89 km)

They are building the roads in the North Kivu in a region, which the Ugandan state have both occupied between August 1998 to June 2003. As well, as the Ugandan involvement in toppling Mobutu and installing Laurent Kabila. Because, of the looting of the years and the loss of the compensation for it.

Is this the way the Ugandan government trying to bait- and switch the government of Kinshasa? Will President Tshisekedi and Kabila accept this?

This is about 223 kilometres of tarmacked roads within the North Kivu province. A place the para-military of the Uganda knows well. A region where the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) are familiar in. Who knows how they are planning to develop this and who will do the bidding?

Is this more Chinese Operators or in connection with the Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA). One of the most corrupt institutions in Uganda, which is the reason why buildings roads in the Republic is so expensive.

That is why its weird that the Ugandan is doing this and made this decision in a Cabinet Meeting yesterday. Wonder, if the government and authorities within the DRC will accept this? Is this to patch the hurt or is this a gamble of the Presidency?

They are pursuing it for inter-connectivity, mobility and for security. That is what they are stating in the minutes from the Cabinet Meeting. However, in my opinion this isn’t about bilateral cooperation and further the ties of the Republic’s.

The Cabinet Meeting and the State of Uganda is gambling that this will be a sort of pay-off for their plundering. Do some good deeds, but that has to be accepted by Kinshasa. That is something we have to see and this can take forever before it starts. We can wonder who will deal with the tenders, the budgets and who will keep the governments accountable. This sort of building and development project is a corrupt man wet-dream. As there will be no clear oversight and will be raining funds. There will be ghosts, there will be goats and will be unallocated funds.

We can also wonder, if this will be an excuse to have the UPDF returning into the province of North Kivu, as they have to be security for the road-companies and the construction. That wouldn’t shock me at all.

That is all speculation, but this story is only starting. There will be devils in the details. We just have to see, if the states will write Memorandums of Understandings (MOUs) and Agreements to safeguard the deals. Therefore, the Cabinet Meeting yesterday is just a beginning. This is a saga that will continue… Peace.

RDC: Union pour la Democratie et le Progres Social (UDPS) – Presidence du Parti – Communique de Presse (22.06.2020)

RDC: Union pour la Nation Congolaise “U.N.C” – Declaration de la Direction Politique Nationale de l’Union pour la Nation Congolaise “UNC” (21.06.2020)

100 Days judgement: Is this the end of CACH?

Today, Vital Kamerhe the Chief of Staff for President Felix Tshisekedi was sentenced to 20 years of forced labour, massive fines and losing his civic duties and opportunity to have a public office in the next 10 years too. This is a giant blow to him, but will also have political ramification beyond the sentencing itself.

Kamerhe (UNC) and Tshisekedi (UDPS) made an alliance before the last election (2018), this was the Cap pour le changement (CACH). This agreement was between them and their two parties l’Union pour la démocratie et le progrès social (UDPS) and l’Union pour la nation congolaise( UNC). This was a game changer.

I have no doubt that Kamerhe was corrupt and has done his dirt. Deserving like any citizen to answer for his crimes and be sentenced today. However, with his stature, role in government and as a running mate to the President. This opens up a can of worms. As he was the leader of the UNC, which is one half of the CACH. It is kind of hard to not see the issues.

Yes, the CACH made secret deals behind the closed doors with Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC). With the fall of Kamerhe, the support there is ideal for the President. But with the fall of Kamerhe his losing the balance within the government and might even get open dissent from former allies. This might be seen as a betrayal of their alliance and also coalition they made. All of that wouldn’t be shocking either, as the UNC has defended their leader is statements since his arrest.

For the UDPS directly they are in pickle. They either got to promote someone else from the UNC or they got to disband the alliance and only focus on the FCC. The FCC is Kabila and Kabila is the FCC. The FCC have never denied that and been adamant about it.

We can wonder how this will affect the relations between them all. As one of the three kingpins are behind bars. Tshisekedi and Kabila is living large, while Kamerhe is in the pen. That is the reality of this. The CACH should practically be dead and this is the funeral of it.

As the CACH are getting the merciful death by the slingshot of getting rid of Kamerhe. We can wonder how the FCC and UDPS will play this one out. Since they let this happen and it happened on their watch. Yes, Kamerhe was corrupt, but so has the whole system been. Getler and Kabila can write books on it and their shady deals behind closed doors. Therefore, we know Kamerhe is just a fitting target here.

The UDPS better consolidate and we better see the President suddenly appear again with Kabila. Like they have done in the past. Having suddenly meetings to iron out their differences. This would make sense now. Since they have no practically assaulted the UNC as one of their allies.

Tshisekedi isn’t alone in power. His still the puppet of Kabila. If he like that? Well, that is the choice he made with the secret deals behind closed doors after the 2018 election. Now that he have betrayed his coalition mate and with the sentence he got. We know this is the end of the road for Vital. Then we can wonder who will trust Felix now? 

Unless, he like to be used and toyed around with. Yes, they made an example of Kamerhe. That is why the ones in office now should thread the waters carefully. If Tshisekedi can do this to Vital. Begs me to question: What could he do to you? Peace.

RDC: Union pour la Nation Congolaise “U.N.C” – Declaration Politique (19.06.2020)

RDC: Association des Bashi pour le Developpement Integral du Bushi – “Cinyabuguma asbl” – Declaration de la communaute des Bashi sur le Proces Vital Kamerhe (16.06.2020)

RDC: UDPS – Communique de Presse – Concerne: Situation politque de l’heure (29.05.2020)