Today on the 13th May 2018, Prime Minister Theresa May wrote an article on Facebook called: ‘Trust me, I’ll take back control — but I’ll need your help’. This is an article on her defense on her and her parties stance on Brexit, as it is supposed to address the lacking framework for the negotiations with the European Union, as the United Kingdom is withdrawing their membership. However, she must think the electorate of United Kingdom are a bunch of fools.
Since she wrote first this: “We will leave the Single Market because staying in the Single Market means continued free movement of people, but we will maintain the strongest possible trading partnership with our European neighbours and create new trade deals around the world ensuring that we seize the opportunities to build an economy that works for everyone”. Than to continue the hogwash, she wrote this: “And we will leave the Customs Union so we can establish our own independent trade policy and negotiate trade deals in our interests. I have proposed different options for a new customs arrangement with the EU and the government will continue to develop them during the negotiations”. Later, the final nail in coffin of nonsense, she wrote this: “This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, or between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. We will uphold the Belfast Agreement in full – and we will ensure the constitutional and economic integrity of the whole United Kingdom. Second, any agreements must create as little friction as possible for trade to protect the jobs that rely on speedy and integrated supply chains. These are a valued part of our economy, particularly for our manufacturing regions”.
So the takeout of this masterpiece of nonsense, was that the United Kingdom with the Tories at the helm, will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union, while trying to get friction-less trade. I hate to say it, but that will be impossible. As the standards for trading with the EU isn’t like that and they will not configure the whole system to fit the hands of May. She might think she is the wisest of them all and the Princess all of Europe looks up-too. However, she and Her Majesty’s Government have to follow guidelines. That is within reason of everyone else and all the other member states of the Union.
If the UK leaves the Single Market and Customs Union with the EU, they will be a significant less important trading-partner by default. They will have to have a hard-border, tariffs and check-points of delivery of the product in and between the British isles. I know that the Tories will say this is not true, but if making themselves a Third-Party State to the European Union, means the trading agreements will be as hectic as they are for Zimbabwe or any other random partner trading with the EU. It will be friction, there will be tariffs and will be checks of goods. The borders and movement of funds will be costly, as the third-party nation will not have advances and securities directly with the EU. That is why the standards and the tariffs are there. Because the EU will secure trading directly with other partners and within the Union. The ones who has already signed-off to be part of the Single-Market and its business model.
Theresa May should understand that with the disconnect from both entities within the EU, there will not be possible of a stop of goods and services. The trading agreements with the EU might help, but that will be new negotiations and also suspend possible trading that exists today. Because the EU cannot have similar standards as today with a Third Party State.
That is why I think May is deliberately stupid, as she should know better. She thinks she can mix sewage and water in the same pipes, not thinking someone will catch cholera. But that is what she does. She promise golden roads to heaven, but she should have idea what the proposals really means. As an outsider, I can say that I think, she is acting like a fool, and she takes the British for a ride. Unless, that is what the Kingdom likes to played around like pawns, while the Tories play power games with them. Because that is how it seems. As the deadline for withdrawal is there… getting closer and the Tories are looking more depleted, than anyone should think was possible. Peace.
The Prime Minister Questions in the House of Commons this Wednesday 9th May 2018, proves a certain thing. That the Conservative Party and their coalition is not prepared or has any signs of where they are heading with the Brexit Negotiations. It is hectic mess of own dodgy unstable government, which is marred with internal conflict and egos. That all want their slices of the pot, but is not considering the implications of their actions. How can I say that, well, let me take the significant answer from PM Theresa May today, which show it all!
“We are leaving the customs union. What we are doing is ensuring that we deliver customs arrangements but leave the customs union, ensure no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, as frictionless trade with the EU as possible, and an independent trade policy. What would Labour give us? It wants to go into a customs union with the European Union, with no say over trade policy and with Brussels negotiating trade deals in its interests, not our own. The Labour manifesto said that it wanted to strike trade deals, but now it has gone back on that policy. Typical Labour—letting Britain down once again” (Theresa May, 09.05.2018).
It is like she is dreaming, its like she doesn’t know how the European Union operates or how negotiations work. As she is thinking she can get the specialized agreement with “non” or “soft-border” in Ireland/Northern Ireland, however, still having hard borders towards the rest of the Union. Where they will not be delivering to the protocol of trade or movement. Because that is the main issue of the Brexiteers. That is not how the world works or how the EU would accept. Because if you have soft-border one place, you have soft-border all around the island.
When I hear the PM speak, has she heard from the EU:
“The European Union is giving the U.K. a take-it-or-leave-it offer over customs union membership. Remaining in the regime must be on the EU’s terms, the conditions won’t change, and it would mean Britain having no independent trade policy, Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned. “We can’t change our rules; our rules will remain the same,” Barnier told a business conference in Sofia on Thursday. “When you’re in a customs union for goods, like Turkey for example, you become part of a common trade policy — you don’t have autonomy anymore.” (Okov, Slav & Wishart, Ian – ‘EU Won’t Adapt Customs Union Rules to Suit Britain, Barnier Says’ 26.04.2018, Bloomberg).
So clearly, the mark has been missed. The Tories has no idea about this trade-deals and the movement, as the EU will be hard-lining the rules and regulations that all the member-states has put together. That is why the Tories are walking towards becoming a third-party state to the EU and will meet the same demands that has. Seemingly, the Brexiteers are thinking of how that will be. Its like the British is forgetting that to get into the marketplace, you have to follow the standards of that one. You can try to make your own, but that takes time. And the time is not the side of the UK right now. They have less time, they have squandered the time and now the clock is ticking.
Therefore, I have hard to believing the PM understand or has underestimated the consequences, maybe because it doesn’t hit home. It everyone else, just like the sorry misfortune of the Windrush generation, this sort of diplomatic and foreign affairs doesn’t directly hit the PM and her party. That is why it doesn’t cost to botch it or to misuse the precious time to get it fixed.
We know she did repeat herself later while answering a question put by Matt Western:
“As I said earlier, there are two options for delivering on the objectives that we have set. We will leave the customs union, we want to ensure that there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, we want to ensure that there is as frictionless trade as possible between the UK and the EU, and we want to ensure that we can have an independent trade policy. I say to the hon. Gentleman that what is not credible is a Labour party policy that wants us to be in a customs union, giving all the power for negotiating our trade deals to Brussels, with no say whatsoever for the UK” (Theresa May, 09.05.2018).
Therefore, the Brexiteers are still leaving the Kingdom into problematic shores, as they are cannot count on the paradigm shift or what the Tories really want. It is obvious with the talk and answers, that the UK Government, don’t know or doesn’t understand the implications it will bring. Like they are naive and thinking they can get it exactly how they want and without any costs. That is not how these sort of things play out. However, then again, it is done by David Davis and Boris Johnson, so I am sure road to oblivion sounds better than Hackney. Peace.
On the 13th April, the British Parliament published their Legal Opinion on the ‘Vote Leave’ or Brexit Campaigns that was connected to the Cambridge Analytica, Aggregate IQ Data Services Ltd (AIQ) and others. This is was a specific plan that was hired to secure the well-funded campaigns and strategies to get the result they wanted. This companies was hired by all parties that matters in the wish to leave the European Union (EU). This was the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), United Kingdom Independent Party (UKIP) and even the Conservative Party (Tories). All of them has paid for services within these companies. Therefore, the investigation will reveal how they operated.
The Cambridge Analytica and AIQ was sophisticated measures of forcing their messages to the public. Where even the consultants wasn’t working separately from each other. What is also seen is these campaign officials are now part of the advisers of the Prime Minister, these being Stephen Parkinson and Cleo Watson, who both has prominent roles within the Downing Street. What is striking is how these officials was part of the ‘Vote Leave’, while the separate campaign ‘BeLeave’ run from the same offices wasn’t stopped. If this wasn’t done misuse power and also manpower, what isn’t?
So this mismatch of organization, combined with the setting, shows how they we’re not truthful of the information and the spreading of information within the structure. Neither, was the collections of personal information and the analyzes used to hit the regions that could be swayed for the Brexit. This was specialized tactics and also moving in ways that was not following British Campaign laws.
You know that is all operated together with a flinch of evidence, it couldn’t be more blatant:
“We have seen screenshots relating to BeLeave’s shared drive within Vote Leave’s Google Drive space, which, according to J, was administered by Victoria Woodcock, Vote Leave’s Chief Operating Officer. On 10 March J was invited by Mr Grimes to join the BeLeave shared drive. Many of those with access to the shared drive had Vote Leave email addresses” (Matrix Chambers, 2018).
When your sharing the same cloud space online and the same shared drive, even the emails, there is no question of how you move and how you work. You wouldn’t have shared interests and shared intelligence, if your having all digital content combined. All content was connected and therefore, they knew of each other. Therefore, they could massage the messages and use their techniques to strike the public together.
The Opinion is showing how the campaign crossed the lines of donation and personal spending, also practices of mismanagement on purpose to secure the Vote Leave didn’t earn more funds after law, therefore helping Be Leave Campaign, even as it was run from the same offices with different British Nationals running them. That Vote Leave raised more funds than the £7,000,000 pounds spend on the campaign.
We know it is serious, when the Committee of the Parliament wants more investigation into it and refers it all to the Crown Prosecution Service. Where they want all parties involved possibly prosecuted for their electoral malpractice.
That these sort of activities needs to be looked into, as we know Cambridge Analytica misused personal information from Facebook, breached privacy laws to be able to engineer results and messages for parties within the United Kingdom. They has also now worked together and made sure the BeLeave and Vote Leave misused provisions within the Electoral Law. Clearly, the UK and their parties are not as clean and democratic as they want to be.
This sort of practices and use of power within the electorate is a warning sign. How international companies and tech-companies are getting involved in digital marketing and in targeting the electorate. If the ones fighting for the EU Referendum and for the leaving the Union did this. What did the bigger parties, than the Tories and Labour? What sort of connections and digital fingerprint did they have?
This are people who are close to Theresa May at Downing Street, the stretch from power is very short. It’s like when David Cameroon hired the advisers directly from media, as the May has followed suit, but more modern than hiring from newspapers and Murdoch companies. Therefore, the ones who was part of this, should worry for their positions within the close inner-circle of the Prime Minister. This sort of legal opinion should hit the Tories hard and the PM especially. Since the ones who is advising her, was in the midst of the shady operations done by AIQ & Cambridge Analytica, as well as the BeLeave and Vote Leave circles.
The secretive Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) and Cabinet Secretary David Davis has hold a secret since January 2018, as of today the folders to ‘EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehold Briefing’ was released online. Surely, the Conservatives and DUP must take people’s for fools, thinking these results would fly under radar and not be scrutinized. I will take certain ones from this. Just to prove how much hurt the public could get by leaving the EU. I am glad I am not British, while reading this one, but not many would have looked there if it were not for Member of Parliament, who took page by page and leaked them too.
Depending on what sort of a trade arrangement the United Kingdom gets with their partners, if it’s a EEA deal, Florence Type Arrangement and WTO Agreement with the EU. No matter what, the fall and the costs will be massive. The industries of chemicals, food and drink, clothes, manufacturing, cars and retail will be hit by the time of the exit. Certainly, like chemical industry and their percentages of loss could be between 16% and 2%. The biggest loss would be in the WTO deal, the non-deal with EU. Food and Drinks industry could lose between 10% and 2 %. Also depending on which deal. Both of these shows the massive backlash it has and how the cuts will be. Since the industries will both lose big profits and margins, which they cannot uphold by the status quo arrangements!
Those results are striking and proving how little benefit it is to leave and create a tariff border with the EU. They are really pulling efforts to make things more expensive and harder, just the tariffs alone will hurt the exports and the imports to the UK. Since the cost will be put on the consumer, and the EU trading partners might choose other cheaper produce from elsewhere. Since the tariffs on UK cheese is too high and the Swiss one cost less. The estimated tariffs on agriculture in EEA deal is zero, but the FTA is 26.1% and WTO is 26.1% and that is massive rise of prices. On Beverages, Tobacco and Food, the EEA is Zero, while the FTA is 12.7% and WTO is 12.7%. Both of these are showing the high risking prices and effects it could have on the market.
IF you believed the Tories and the campaigners that it wouldn’t be costly to move away and that the UK would earn on the leaving. You we’re duped, you were fooled and the hatred ate you. It will cost and with time it has been evident, as even the industry and the Financial Business Community is planning to flee. That will cost even more, as more jobs are fleeing to Union Financial Districts, to be sure they can trade services without having a hectic international tariffs and waivers to get it through! That is what will happen when the EU and UK departs from each other.
The new regulatory environment plus the taxations of the services after leaving will be hectic. The added pressure and the lack of movement of staff, can also hinder the will of doing business in the UK. They are really biting the hands that feeds itself. The wisdom hasn’t sunk in yet, but the numbers are bad, it will not be a smooth ride and the cost will all be put on the British and their consumers. It will not be walk in the park; it will be a steep mountain of hurt. Peace.
The European Union or parts of it the European Commission has made their draft agreement on the withdrawal of United Kingdom as a Member State within the Union. This draft document will say many things, but I will focus on the ones that I see fitting and important. Therefore, this will not be the whole picture, but outtakes. That is see as significant for Europeans and the British as well. Since this will affect the realities of the citizens on the continent, as well as the boundaries it creates.
This document is significant, because it says what the EU expects of it all and puts everything into play. It set standards of what the European Commission and their technocrats wants to ensure. This is so the liabilities and the stakeholders of the Union, will know every single step and manners they perceive as important, which also should matter to the United Kingdom. Because they are the ones that is initially leaving, but it is just the matter of how. With time haven’t become clearer from their part, but more foggy as the shadow-games of the Tories Government isn’t supplying the world with clear communication of what they want or see as their future on the outside.
What is the most important piece of it is the ways the EU are cooperating with the will of the Republic of Ireland and the relationship it needs with Northern Ireland and the UK. Clearly stated in the draft is the provisions, that is clear, that the EU is not set for a hard-Brexit in this concern, as the Irish will have a special conditions and provisions, ensuring that the state of affairs stays as today. They are ensuring that the EU Draft is not in violation of the Good Friday Agreement, which shows the maturity of the EU in this sense. Now people should just worry if the UK government want to alter or change it for their own personal gain or not. Since, this is leaving the Irish problem settled and made sure they get what is needed comparing to old agreements between all parties involved.
“NOTING that Union law has provided a supporting framework to the provisions on Rights, Safeguards and Equality of Opportunity of the 1998 Agreement; UNDERLINING that part or all of this Protocol may cease to apply should a future agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom be agreed which addresses the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, including by avoiding a hard border and protecting the 1998 Agreement in all its dimensions” (EU, P: 99, 2018).
“The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (the “Common Travel Area”), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law” (…) “A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established. The common regulatory area shall constitute an area without internal borders in which the free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected in accordance with this Chapter” (EU, P: 100, 2018).
This part of the agreement will hurt the Brexiteers, who want a full breakout of the EU, this will give leeway to a lot of speculations, as the ERG inside the Tories will not accept this sort of arrangement. Even if this is positive news for the EU friendly parts of the Kingdom. However, this should be seen as a victory for Dublin, as well as Belfast. Even if the DUP might not be in favour and they are vital to London these days.
This leaves and follows the agreement made not too long ago and pursuits the same arrangements as today, concerning the needs of Dublin and Belfast. We will see if this will backfire for Theresa May and her unknown project, as the inner-party of Tories is conflicted with itself and the costs of the Brexit. Clearly, the state is unsure and not bringing certainties, the EU on the other hand is showing the steps and has no issues flaunting it. While the Tories has tried to keep this inside the party and not letting anyone now. Therefore, trying to damage control, instead of deciding how to negotiate.
This is showing that the EU want to respect the Good Friday Agreement, the Irish problem of the Brexit and handling it with maturity, however, will do Tories answer with the same or are they stuck with DUP and ERG who wants to make the Brexit even harder. With strong borders and no CTA and specialized Customs Union for the Irish. Time will tell, but this was a breath of fresh air. Peace.
European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community (28.02.2018)