WASHINGTON, March 8, 2017—World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim today issued the following statement on the devastating levels of food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen:
“Famine is a stain on our collective conscience. Millions of lives are at risk and more will die if we do not act quickly and decisively.
We at the World Bank Group stand in solidarity with the people now threatened by famine. We are mobilizing an immediate response for Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Our first priority is to work with partners to make sure that families have access to food and water. We are working toward a financial package of more than $1.6 billion to build social protection systems, strengthen community resilience, and maintain service delivery to the most vulnerable. This includes existing operations of over $870 million that will help communities threatened by famine. I am also working with our Board of Directors to secure the approval of new operations amounting to $770 million, funded substantially through IDA’s Crisis Response Window.
The World Bank Group will help respond to the immediate needs of the current famine, but we must recognize that famine will have lasting impacts on people’s health, ability to learn, and earn a living. So we will also continue to work with communities to reclaim their livelihoods and build resilience to future shocks.
We are coordinating closely with the UN and other partners in all areas of our response. We know that resolution to this acute crisis will not be possible without all humanitarian and development actors working together. We call on the international community to respond robustly and quickly to the UN global appeal for resources for the famine.
To prevent crises in the future, we must invest in addressing the root causes and drivers of fragility today and help countries build institutional and societal resilience.”
A famine means that a significant part of the population has no access to basic food, suffers from severe malnutrition, and death from hunger reaches unprecedented levels. Children under five are disproportionately affected. A famine can affect the well-being of a whole generation. Famine was officially declared on February 20 in South Sudan, impacting approximately 100,000 people, and there is a credible risk of other famines in Yemen, Northeast Nigeria, and other countries. Ongoing conflicts and civil insecurity are further intensifying the food insecurity of millions of people across the region, and there is already widespread displacement and other cross-border spillovers. For instance, food insecurity in Somalia and famine in South Sudan are accelerating the flow of refugees into Ethiopia and Uganda. The UN estimates that about 20 million people in Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen are on the “tipping point” of famine. Drought conditions also extend to Uganda and parts of Tanzania. The last famine was declared in 2011 in Somalia during which 260,000 people died.
The Drought Situation
The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.
The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.
The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.
In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.
Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.
Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.
Drought Response in the Horn of Africa
With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.
Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.
The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.
IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:
Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.
In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.
Somalia is in the grip of an intense drought, induced by two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall.
MOGADISHU, Somalia, February 3, 2017 – The Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia, Peter de Clercq, warned today that unless a massive and urgent scale up of humanitarian assistance takes place in the coming weeks, famine could soon be a reality in some of the worst drought-affected areas in Somalia. During the launch of the latest food security and nutrition data in Mogadishu, he called for urgent efforts to avert famine.
Somalia is in the grip of an intense drought, induced by two consecutive seasons of poor rainfall. In the worst affected areas, inadequate rainfall and lack of water has wiped out crops and killed livestock, while communities are being forced to sell their assets, and borrow food and money to survive.
“This is the time to act to prevent another famine in Somalia. Building on the response to drought in 2016, we need to rapidly step up the humanitarian response to effectively respond to the extensive needs and avert a famine,” said Peter de Clercq. “If we do not scale up the drought response immediately, it will cost lives, further destroy livelihoods, and could undermine the pursuit of key State-building and peacebuilding initiatives. A drought – even one this severe – does not automatically have to mean catastrophe if we can respond early enough with timely support from the international community.”
According to the FAO-managed Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), the number of people in need of assistance has increased from five million in September to over 6.2 million now, more than half of the country’s population. This includes a drastic increase in the number of people in “crisis” and “emergency” from 1.1 million six months ago to a projected 3 million between February and June this year. The situation for children is especially grave. Some 363,000 acutely malnourished children are in need of critical nutrition support, including life-saving treatment for more than 71,000 severely malnourished children.
The levels of suffering in the country, triggered by protracted conflict, seasonal shocks and disease outbreaks, are typically hard to bear, but the impact of this drought represents a threat of a different scale and magnitude. “The situation we are starting to see today in many rural areas today, particularly Bay, Puntland, is starting to look worryingly like the run-up to famine in 2010-2011. Most striking is the pace, scale and geography of deterioration, and the potential for the situation to become much much worse,” said Richard Trenchard, the Food and Agriculture Organization Representative for Somalia. “Labour prices are collapsing; local food prices are rising; food availability is becoming patchy; animal deaths are increasing; and malnutrition rates are rising, especially among children. Together, these are all signs that we are entering a phase that can lead to catastrophe.”
Somalia experienced the worst famine of the twenty-first century in 2011, affecting an estimated four million people, three-quarters of a million of whom faced famine conditions. The famine resulted in the loss of more than a quarter a million lives.
Agricultural support critical now to protect livestock, equip families to plant in rainy season.
ROME, Italy, December 20, 2016 – Countries in the Horn of Africa are likely to see a rise in hunger and further decline of local livelihoods in the coming months, as farming families struggle with the knock-on effects of multiple droughts that hit the region this year, FAO warned today. Growing numbers of refugees in East Africa, meanwhile, are expected to place even more burden on already strained food and nutrition security.
Currently, close to 12 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are in need of food assistance, as families in the region face limited access to food and income, together with rising debt, low cereal and seed stocks, and low milk and meat production. Terms of trade are particularly bad for livestock farmers, as food prices are increasing at the same time that market prices for livestock are low.
Farmers in the region need urgent support to recover from consecutive lost harvests and to keep their breeding livestock healthy and productive at a time that pastures are the driest in years. Production outputs in the three countries are grim.
“We’re dealing with a cyclical phenomenon in the Horn of Africa,” said Dominique Burgeon, Director of FAO’s Emergency and Rehabilitation Division. “But we also know from experience that timely support to farming families can significantly boost their ability to withstand the impacts of these droughts and soften the blow to their livelihoods,” he stressed.
For this reason, FAO has already begun disbursing emergency funds for rapid interventions in Kenya and Somalia.
The funds will support emergency feed and vaccinations for breeding and weak animals, repairs of water points, and seeds and tools to plant in the spring season. FAO is also working with local officials to bolster countries’ emergency preparedness across the region.
“Especially in those areas where we know natural hazards are recurring, working with the Government to further build-up their ability to mitigate future shocks is a smart intervention that can significantly reduce the need for humanitarian and food aid further down the line,” Burgeon said.
Kenya is highly likely to see another drought in early 2017, and with it a rise in food insecurity. Current estimates show some 1.3 million people are food insecure.
Based on the latest predictions, the impacts of the current drought in the southern part of the country will lessen by mid-2017, but counties in the North – in particular Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera – will steadily get worse.
Families in these areas are heavily dependent on livestock. Now, with their livelihoods already stressed – the last reliable rain they received was in December 2015- they will get little relief from the October-December short rains, which typically mark a recovery period but once again fell short this season.
In the affected counties, the terms of trade have become increasingly unfavourable for livestock keepers, as prices of staple foods are rising, while a flood of weakened sheep, goats and cows onto local markets has brought down livestock prices.
To ensure livestock markets remain functional throughout the dry season in 2017, FAO, is training local officials in better managing livestock markets — in addition to providing feed, water and veterinary support.
After two poor rainy seasons this year, Somalia is in a countrywide state of drought emergency, ranging from moderate to extreme. As a result, the Gu cereal harvest – from April to June – was 50 percent below average, and prospects for the October-December Deyr season are very grim.
To make matters worse, the country’s driest season – the Jilaal that begins in January- is expected to be even harsher than usual, which means Somali famers are unlikely to get a break anytime soon.
All indications are that crop farmers are already facing a second consecutive season with poor harvest. Pastoralists, meanwhile, are struggling to provide food for both their families and livestock, as pasture and water for grazing their animals are becoming poorer and scarcer by the day – in the south, pasture availability is the lowest it has been in the past five years.
Some five million Somalis are food insecure through December 2016. This includes 1.1 million people in Crisis and Emergency conditions of food insecurity (Phases 3 and 4 on the five-tier IPC scale used by humanitarian agencies). This is a 20 percent increase in just six months.
The latest analysis forecasts that the number of people in Crisis and Emergency conditions of food insecurity may further rise by more than a quarter of a million people between February and May 2017. Similar conditions in 2011 have resulted in famine and loss of lives, and therefore early action is urgently needed to avoid a repeat.
FAO calls on resource partners to urgently scale up assistance in rural areas, in the form of cash relief, emergency livestock support and agricultural inputs to plant in the April Gu season.
If farmers cannot plant during Gu – which traditionally produces 60 percent of the country’s annual cereal output — they will be left without another major harvest until 2018.
Farming families in Ethiopia, meanwhile, are extremely vulnerable as they have not been able to recover from the 2015 El Nino-induced drought. Some 5.6 million people remain food insecure, while millions more depend on livestock herds that need to be protected and treated to improve milk and meat production. Here, too, better access to feed and water is critical.
The crop situation is relatively stable after the country completed the most widespread emergency seed distribution in Ethiopia’s history. FAO and more than 25 NGOs and agencies reached 1.5 million households with drought-resistant seeds.
As a result of enabling farming families to grow their own food, the government and humanitarian community saved close to $1 billion in emergency aid, underlining that investing in farmers is not only the right thing to do but also the most cost-efficient.
FAO’s Early Warning early action work
Somalia and Kenya are among the first countries benefiting from FAO’s new Early Warning Early Action Fund (EWEA). The fund ensures quick activation of emergency plans when there is a high likelihood of a disaster that would affect agriculture and people’s food and nutrition security.
The fund will be part of a larger Early Warning Early Action System that tracks climate data and earth imaging to determine what areas are at risk of an imminent shock and will benefit from early intervention.
That there is civil-war like activity in Ogaden and Amhara regions in Ethiopia, that there continues internal skirmishes between Burundian security forces and civilians, that the Rwandan Opposition are silenced, In the Democratic Republic of Congo as there guerrillas fighting and killing while the FARDC and MONUSCO doesn’t act against civilians in North and South Kivu; As there are internal fighting between Somaliland, Galdumug, Al-Shabaab and AMISOM. This is all happening as we flick between the channels on the telly.
There we are discussing who’s the next racial biased brother Donald J. Trump thinking of hiring to his executive branch staff at the White House. This is happening while there continue bloodbath, there been genocide warnings for Burundi in October 2016 and South Sudan November 2016. South Sudan are skirmishes happening in Yei State, South Kordofan, West Bahr El Ghazal between SPLM/A and SPLM/A-IO, which is President Kiir and former FVP Machar. There are battles still in Darfur as the Khartoum regime under President Omar Al-Bashir are attacking the SPLM-N and other rebels who fight themselves in the past, but has no written an agreement while the Khartoum has said they will continue to fight them.
These are killings of civilians in with the mind of staying in power. It is happening with bullets that imported and exported from the rich nations, through back-channels that none of us want to discuss, because it implicates the nations of peace are involved in profits of the death of civilians. This is happening as we go to buy bread at the supermarket, markets for selling cassava and rice are blown to bits, water-sources are getting scarce as these nations are hurt by droughts and dire need of secure agricultural productions, but that is not happening while the big-men are explicitly doing what they can to kill each other for POWER.
The innocent is dying at rapid speed. The livelihoods are dwindling away because the Presidents and Government together with rebels are destroying the nations in their reach of staying with titles, businesses and feeding their elites of the donor funds. This is the situation in Ethiopia, Burundi, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.
We cannot let this happening while the fleeing civilians are going from one bad situation into another. If the Somalis think of fleeing to Ethiopia, they get into new trouble and Kenyan Government are busy deporting them to PoC sites inside Somalia. If you’re fleeing Ethiopia you have to cross the South Sudan and Sudan. Where the battles between the rivals continue and are bloody. The place of refuge right now is Northern Uganda, the war-torn parts that has had a decade of peace, but the locals are not getting land, but the refugees and businessmen. The reality is that the Government doesn’t have funds to allocate the Refugee camps in Adjumani where the UNICEF organization is lacking funds for support.
Together with the issues of Burundian refugees in Rwanda and Tanzania; the Burundian ones are safe in Tanzania, but still the UN operations doesn’t have the sufficient funds as there are more worry of what the Rwandese authorities do, as they want to send them away because the Burundian Authorities are claiming that Rwandese Government are training rebels to coup d’état against President Nkurunziza.
While the pulling out of ICC happens from Burundi, the Kenyan pulling troops from the UMISS, Ugandan negotiations in dialogue between the parties in Burundi and South Sudan; while the shallow relationships is to see how they all can grind monies out of the international community. The African Union complains to the European Union on payments for the soldiers, while the Ugandan and Burundian government eats of these funds, while the soldiers themselves thieving ammunition and gas to supply themselves with needed salaries.
All of this is happening while the Ethiopian Government has pulled out battalions out of certain areas in Somalia, as Kenyan have a strong force and feeling the pinch for being involved in the internal squabbles between Al-Shabaab, Government and Local-Government in war-torn nation. As Djibouti tries to live in peace, but get trained guerrillas from Eritrea and has built a railroad from Ethiopia so that the coastal state has giant ally on the Horn of Africa.
So the civil wars, the skirmishes from governments towards civilians shouldn’t be happening without anyone doing something about it. The Ethiopian, Burundian, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan and South Sudan are now all involved in similar business. The Troika of South Sudan is inactive and like a donor-friendly buddy to Kiir Government, but not certainly acting upon the violence and crimes against humanity. The Sudan government might be under sanctions and has issues with ICC charged President Bashir. Still, they are able to continue to fight civilians in the Darfur Region. The Somali Government feels more powerless as they are donor-friendly and need foreign support for basic operations, while the Al-Shabaab takes stake in every other region, as the Puntland, Galdumug and Somaliland has become more independent and making agreement on their own. As Somaliland have signed giant port-agreement to secure funding of the Civilian Government; also so they can function as nation on their own, though not respected as one from the international community.
This is just the beginning, and it’s not wonderful, it’s bleak… the warnings of GENOCIDE should worry the world in Burundi and South Sudan. But, the current silence, the mediocre attention and no-worries attitude. Is making me shiver and making me worried about the state of affairs in our time!
That there are such current state of affairs, the diplomatic works must be in tatters, the African Union is pointless, the East African Community is a Men’s Club for the Presidents, European Union are stooges for big-business, IGAD are Ethiopian skeleton for peaceful operations and the United Nations are powerless with no-mandate or real army to act upon the human rights violations or crimes against humanity if they are occurring.
It’s a reason why these nations want to withdraw from the Roman Statute if they can and still get donor-aid because the armies, laws and regulations of the civilians are massive breaches of international laws. The Geneva Conventions, the UN Charters and the other ones these Nations have signed into.
While the worst is having knowledge of the dying civilians in South Sudan, Sudan, Ethiopia, Burundi and Somalia as we speak, the silence and indifference… time to act; time for change and time get it on the agenda. Peace.