South Sudan: The National Dialogue meetings in Entebbe under the leadership of Museveni seems like a front!

Entebbe State House 26. May 2017

South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) In-Government (IG), the central leadership of South Sudan and the party of the President. This is the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his First Vice-President (FVP) Taban Deng-Gai. They have launched the National Dialogue and the Government facilitated peace negotiations.

This is going on with the chief peacemaker President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who has had three meetings at the State House in Entebbe in Uganda. That has happen recently with different parts som SPLM/A, but not parts of the SPLM-IO. Other parts of the National Dialogue are lacking the implementation and the needed focus of all stakeholders in the conflict. Since the peace meetings with Museveni and on accord from President Kiir haven’t included the rebels or other militias. Therefore, the SPLM/A meetings in Entebbe is more for show, than initial peace meetings. Unless, these are to reign in all parts of the SPLM/A Organization and keep them loyal to the President.

The South Sudanese meditation of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that we’re with the 31st Extraordinary Summit on the crisis in South Sudan, this was a planned meeting and mediation there. A meeting that had a delegation from SPLM/A-IG, but not with the President Kiir. That Festus Mogae who works for Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), who monitors the crisis, but has a weak mandate, therefore not possible to reach the states and the violations of the agreements. The same can be said by IGAD, also the African Union is not using their powers or the essential powers to stabilize the republic. As well, as there is no will in the East African Community (EAC), to act upon the troubles and take charge, even as the peacekeepers from AU and United Nations (UN) has had the impact execpt for keeping the Internally Displaced People’s (IDPs).

So with this in mind and the refugee crisis as well from the Republic. The Ugandan counterpart is only follow protocol on accord basis with President Kiir. Since he is not involving anyone, unless Kiir gives way. Therefore, the National Dialogue with the partnership of Museveni isn’t real. The reality of the dialogue is a side-show who buys Kiir time to find ways to solve their outstanding issues. Instead of finding peace, but finding weakness of rebels so he can overpower them.

With the external facilitation is not there and strong enough to control the SPLM/A-IG or have consultation of the rebels. There are enough issues at hand, as the international organizations are feeding the needed with corridors of transport through Sudan. So there are enough issues as hand, that even rebellion and leadership problems inside the SPLM-N in Sudan. That is why you know Museveni only touches this one, because he can see fortunes coming his way later.

Bu the true peace will not come through the National Dialogue, just like the JMEC, IGAD or AU have solved the crisis and civil war between the fractions of South Sudan. It has lasted so long already and nearly been moments of rest. The arms and guns, the instability and the acts of violence continues. The innocent are fleeing and their villages are burning. This is not how it is supposed to be. Peace.

South Sudan: GoU letter to SPLM-IO – “Re: Invitation to Attend SPLM/A Consultation Meeting in Entebbe on the 16th June 2017” (15.06.2017)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – “Re: SPLM/A Consultation on 16 June 2017 in Entebbe, Uganda” (15.06.2017)

South Sudan: More weapons and ammunition destroyed in Abyei (15.06.2017)

About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).

ABYEI, South Sudan, June 15, 2017 – As part of the continuing efforts to reduce the impact and risk of explosive hazards in Abyei, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) on 12 June 2017 conducted another destruction exercise of confiscated weapons and ammunition.

About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).

The weapon and ammunition management (WAM) activity took place after the soldiers of the EDMP completed a training course conducted by experts of UNMAS. The course was designed to provide quality assurance WAM activities, as well as to enhance the knowledge of soldiers and experts to meet international mine action standards.

“Together, we are pursuing the fulfillment of the UNISFA mandate to confiscate and destroy small arms and ammunition in the Abyei Area,” said UNISFA’s acting Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Tesfay Gidey Hailemichael.

The activity has become the benchmark of the cooperation between the EDMP and UNMAS, for the benefit of peace and security for both the residents and nomad communities in the Abyei area.

The destruction of weapons and incineration of ammunition were witnessed by UNISFA and UNMAS senior leadership namely Mr Alan Doyle, UNISFA Chief of Mission Support and Mr Leon Louw, UNMAS Programme Manager.

Since July 2016, a total of 41 weapons were destroyed and 1817 ammunition were incinerated by UNISFA and UNMAS. The cooperation between UNISFA and UNMAS started in December 2011, following a mine incident in August 2011, which killed four UNISFA peacekeepers and injured seven others. Since UNMAS’ deployment, no UNISFA personnel has fallen victim to either landmines or explosive remnant of war (ERW), and a substantial amount of work was done to rid the Abyei area of the threat of ERW and landmines.

There are a possible return of UPDF in South Sudan!

It is ironic as the National Dialogue for Peace is supposed to be implemented and worked upon, as the different stakeholders and parties would be listen too. Even if the SPLM/A-IO would send a team, but not Dr. Riek Machar. Still, the government and their army are meeting new rebellions and armies attacking them. The newest is in solidarity to King Malong, as they are this week started the South Sudan Patriotic Army (SSPA), these are starting their warfare in Northern Bahr Al Ghazal under the command of Agany Abdel-Baqi Ayii Akol. So it is more issues growing and more armies working against the SPLM/A-IG. That means so many are rebelling against President Salva Kiir Mayardit. This is worrying, as the National Dialogue are supposed to start talks and consider the different stakeholders. Instead, it seems more like ploy for the center-stage, so the international donors and such see that the central government tries to create peace. Therefore, the newest leaks of possible actions from Uganda inside in South Sudan. Show’ s the relationship between President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and President Salva Kiir Mayardit. As the rumors and speculations of another time of redeployment, show’s that the Ugandan’s aren’t there just for peace, but for battling the demons of Kiir. Take a look!

The official allegedly said that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir wants Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to deploy UPDF’s soldiers to some areas he deems a threat to his government. “There is an active discussion between South Sudan and Uganda over the possibility of Uganda’s military re-intervention in our country. Kiir and Museveni started talking about bringing back UPDF to South Sudan last month [May],” the official reportedly said” (…) “Meanwhile, the source was quoted as saying that Kiir and Museveni were infuriated when some leaders of the African Union, United Nations, and other countries publicly admitted that the August 2015 peace agreement is dead, adding, “Kiir and Taban believe the implementation of the peace agreement is going smoothly.” (…) “President Kiir is only implementing what he wants not the peace. The big problem here is that Taban Deng Gai who is now the First Vice President has no power to change anything Kiir wants and it is a big problem,” the source added. The official described the FVP Gai as ‘a man with no real power’ (Adongo, 2017).

In Juba: Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) offered South Sudan border protection assistance which include a join effort on patrolling Juba-Nimule highway according to Press Secretary of the President, Ateny Wek Ateny. The proposal was made on Friday and more details are yet to be release” (MirayaFM, 11.06.2017).

That the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and their battalions has been inside South Sudan and was vital part of the SPLA’s victory before the Peace Agreement in 2015. This sophisticated and armed army from Uganda played a big part and also helped the SPLA to secure their upper-hand. Therefore, with this intervention, the UPDF and President Museveni will intervene with more force. There are reports of weapons delivery, ammunition and technical help to the SPLA during this calendar year. So they are just adding and making sure the friendship between the Presidents stay.

President Museveni wants to be the king-maker and he has a loyal ally in President Kiir. This is something he wants to keep, therefore he was the only foreign President in the start of the National Dialogue during May 2017. Which I haven’t had much faith in and with reasons. These reasons are that President Museveni prefers battles he can conquer, not discuss or care about talks. Talks only have value to Museveni if he is the bloody genius and the one with the solving answer.

With this in mind, if the UPDF was re-deployed in South Sudan, it wouldn’t be surprising and shocking. That UPDF with battalions inside South Sudan fighting the rebels, the rebels who has gone against SPLM/A-IG in Juba. So that they would re-enter with battalions as someone says they are plannning. This would differ from the peaceful dialogue the SPLM/A and what President Museveni has said of his engagement in the National Dialogue.

The SPLA has so many fronts and so many rebellions, so if it is true and that the UPDF are going into South Sudan. Than, the President Kiir really has issues and needs help with the troubles at hand. President Kiir seem to need the UPDF and the strength of the Ugandan counterparts in the civil-war in South Sudan. Since he hasn’t had time to build the SPLA and army itself. If the SPLA was winning big and had control of the dire situation, they wouldn’t need the UPDF. Therefore, if this report is true, than the Kiir Government and SPLA are really in trouble with the different obstacles in crisis. And President Museveni would be happy to oblige as his army and his state reserves would not say “no” to the request of being ‘paid in full’ by President Museveni. Peace.

Reference:

Adongo – ‘Uganda plans to re-deploy in South Sudan – reports’ (15.06.2017) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2017/06/15/uganda-plans-to-re-deploy-in-south-sudan-reports.html

Ethiopia: State of Emergency update with a newly issued Internet shutdown!

The State of Emergency that was issued last year October 2016 is still in effect in Ethiopia. Today isn’t the first day of this. This effort from the state has lasted for 7 months and 22 days. Total days by count is 234 days. So the State has really hold control for long.

The stat has used the Agazi squad, which is a part of the army in the regions of Amhara and Oromia provinces. Ethiopia People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the Ruling regime of the Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn have put harsh rules and regulations during the ‘State of Emergency’. It is not like the EPRDF are honorable, they are detaining opposition for treason and harsh charges in kangaroo courts. They are monitoring all opposition and have put thousands into jail during the recent months. Even killed in the provinces mentioned. As they are trying to silence the oppressed in Amhara and Oromia.

Sources in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa told Quartz the internet was reinstutted on Wednesday morning after more than a 12-hour shutdown. Others, however, said that the connection was still being interrupted, and was going on and off. “No connection at all. Everything was blocked,” Biniam Alemayehu said. Alemayehu told Quartz that his 4G phone connection didn’t start working until 9.30 am” (Quartz, 01.06.2017).

Therefore, the total Internet Ban released today isn’t shocking, it is the continuation of violations of human right’s, liberty and freedom of expression. There are only allowed to say and do as the Central Government orders. The rest is silenced or blocked. Just like radio-channel and TV-Stations has been either blocked or censored by the government. Not like the government in Ethiopia now are caring about expression or even other views to their rule. Therefore, are bloggers, human-rights activists and others are behind bars.

Just like the sentence on 24th May:

Today, 4th bench of Federal High Court, has passed “guilty” verdict against journalist Getachew Shiferaw, editor in chief of Negere Ethiopia, according to criminal code article 257/A and 257/D. He was primarily charged with article 7/1 of ATP but downgraded to criminal code, which is “inciting violence”. While reading the verdict, the judges underlined that Getachew, in his private Facebook conversation, said «‘Abebeism’ [to intervene while authorities are publicly speaking] is a good strategy. Every authority who oppresses citizens must know that their honor can be undermined similarly.» This, said the judges, is endorsing what journalist Abebe Gellaw – who was convicted in absentia of violating the infamous ‘ATP’ – has done against the late PM Meles. Even though Getachew has not done ‘this endorsement’ in public nor has tried to do it himself, the judges believed he might do the same “if he gets the chance” and said this might interrupt officials to do their regular jobs.”

In Amhara State an armed opposition group named Patriotic Ginbot 7 are gaining traction in Southern Gondar areas, where the armed rebel group is reacting to the massacres from the state. In Oromia there are still horror stories of the oppressive state. The ones believing that the Ethiopian state are stopping the Internet connectivity because of Exams are naive. They are so naive that they would celebrate the State of Emergency, as the states of Ethiopia where having peaceful demonstrations, but the EPRDF or TPLF couldn’t handle the people’s uprising.

Like the Story of Denebo Wario:

It was exactly a year toady that obbo Dekeba Wario, my father was abducted by heavily armed soldiers of the terrorist regime in the Horn of Africa. My mother, my siblings, and extended family members and friends wouldn’t know for a few weeks where he was kept. Little sister of mine who was worried and painfully missing her dad took it to her facebook account to breath her feelings of frustration saying ” I love you, dad”. This caused the regime’s soldiers (more than 40 armed men and women in uniform) to raid my parents’ home in Shashemene district of the South Central Oromia. My sister (under 18 years of age) and my mother who had already been in pain of not knowing dad’s whereabouts ended up receiving the notoriously known brutal and inhumane treatments from the solicitors who had arrived with the usual motive of terrorising the entire town- to teach every one in the village a lesson. By God’s grace, both my sister and mum have survived but with severe mental and physical injuries, experiences reflective of millions of Oromo parents and children. Weeks later dad was found to have been kept at the MAIKELAWI jail, facility used by the terrorist regime to torture people allegedly linked with opposition parties, civil societies, and human rights. The soldiers charged dad with involvement in the Oromo Liberation Front, an opposition political organisation that every Oromo, according to Meles Zenawi( leader of the Ethiopia’s terrorist regime deceased few years ago) identifies with. He was brought to the “Federal Supreme Court” whose judge ruled out (unusually) that dad should be released on bail, a kangaroo court’s decision unsurprisingly ignored by the soldiers. Ever since, dad has been languishing in jail alongside, of course, with hundreds of thousands of other Oromo men and women of similar background. In spite of all these, my mother, siblings, and all family members have remained resilient, by the grace of God. My father who has spent most of his life going into and out of prison because of his believe in democracy, human rights as well as the rule of law, and escaped death with narrow gaps on several occasions is miraculously still alive. He may even stay alive long enough to see prevalence of freedom over repression in Oromia, the nation he dearly loves. Thanks to our Waaqa, the almighty God” (Denebo Wario, 31.05.2017).

This is enough for now, as the story itself is dire. The situation in Ethiopia isn’t what it should be, instead it is oppression of the citizens. The State of Emergency has now lasted for over 7 months and more people are detained. The critics are getting arrested, harassed or killed. The State doesn’t care about the citizens, therefore they can easily use the army and the police to oppress. They tries to control it, but are instead creating more violent demonstrations and more violent groups working against the government. As they have to react to the oppressive behavior. Therefore, the strengthening of the Patriotic Ginabot 7 in Amhara. This wouldn’t be there if they listed to the demonstrations from Oromia and Amhara in 2016 that was peaceful, but the state silenced with merciless force. Peace.

South Sudan: Resolution Arising from Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Mediation Meeting Held at State House Entebbe (26.05.2017)

[The Arms supplier to SPLA] President Museveni are involved in developing a work-plan for peace in South Sudan!

Entebbe State House 26. May 2017

There are something very wrong when an arms supplier of two decades like President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, are involved in the mediation and peace negotiation in South Sudan. Even if President Salva Kiir Mayardit are wanting him. They have had a longstanding relationship, which is the proof of the arms trade and helping each with armies when needed be. Therefore the impartiality with having Museveni isn’t there. Museveni will secure Kiir and his fraction as that pays him in the long-run and not necessary the best for South Sudan. Just take a look!

On the 26th May at the State House:

Chaired a meeting of three different South Sudanese factions, seeking to reunite the South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement. The meeting at State House, Entebbe was attended by representatives of the SPLM in government, SPLM in opposition and former detainees. This followed a request by His Excellency Salva Kiir that I help in the mediation process. The meeting agreed to establish a working committee that will develop a workplan on implementation of the Arusha Accord, end the war and plan for peace. The meeting tasked as me as mediator, and new chair of the East African Community to determine time and venue for the next meeting, which I will do” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 26.05.2017).

The relationship between Museveni and the conflict in South Sudan, can go back in to old libraries like the report from the Independent paper in the United Kingdom:

The Nigerian-owned Boeing cargo plane was forced to land at Larnaca on Tuesday during a flight from from Tel Aviv to Entebbe in Uganda. According to the Cypriot civil aviation authorities, it was carrying weapons to Uganda. A senior Ugandan official said yesterday it was the first his government knew of the consignment, and there is speculation that the weapons may be destined for the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, struggling for survival in southern Sudan” (…) “The Sudanese government seems to regard Uganda as a supplier of the SPLA. Reliable sources in the area say Khartoum has been supplying dissidents elements in Uganda who have mounted random attacks near Sudanese refugee camps in northern Uganda” (Dowden, 1994). So Museveni has supplied the SPLA weapons for over 20 years and the recent reports show similar activity with Ukraine plane and pilot, instead of being a Nigerian one like the old report. Therefore, with the history of supplying weapons and ammunition to the SPLA. There isn’t like Museveni has chosen side in the conflict. The National Dialogue, which isn’t allowing Dr. Riek Machar and therefore excluding the real SPLM-IO, as well as the newly forged rebel-groups. Which is either dissidents of the SPLM-IO or the SPLM/A in the recent year.

So with the sanctions of who is taking part of the National Dialogue, it will not be sincere, since all of the parties are not involved. The rebels and their leaders are not in communication with the government. Therefore, President Kiir has an ally in the negotiation instead of mediator without any inside agreements. That means that President Museveni will be on the side of Kiir and not on a genuine peace-talks.

Like the interview of SMC in mid-May:

Q. What about IGAD efforts now in South Sudan?

A. For the South Sudan crisis the IGAD was also supported by the international community. In fact the agreement is ‘IGAD-plus agreement’. The IGAD on the one hand and on the other hand, the members of the international community including the TROIKA and a number of other countries were involved in bringing the government of South Sudan and the SPLA together in agreement. So on the ground there is an extensive understanding and cooperation between the IGAD and the international community” (SMC, 2017).

So even if it is a ceasefire now, the attacks and skirmishes still happens in different states. The situation is still dire and my faith in the National Dialogue isn’t there. As the IGAD-Plus Agreement haven’t been respected, by neither party. As the turmoil and crisis is in the matter of the current leadership. Both from the rebels and also from the central government.

With all this in mind, what will be President Museveni motives to make a work-plan for the mediation and implementation of the Arusha Accord. Will it be to generate a real peace or for the help of his friend in troubling time. With the knowledge of the connection between Ugandan Army and the SPLA, Museveni is more important to keep Kiir as an ally, than generate a real peace. The National Dialogue is flawed and it doesn’t help that you have a partial motivated leader like Museveni helping out. It is not to give the mediation any credibility. Since the weapon-brother and the ammunition supplier of the SPLA would not be sincere in wishing peace. He has made sure that President Kiir could battle his enemies and had enough bullets to silence them.

I never had faith in Museveni to deal with this, might the rest of the world do, but then they are naive and not thinking of the implications of selling guns and than discussing peace afterwards. It doesn’t seem to be real and fit. Like a beer producers are promoting careful drinking is insincere as they are in the business of trading the brew and not safety. Peace.

Reference:

Dowden, Richard – ‘Israeli weapons ‘bound for rebels’ in southern Sudan: Arms may be destined for SPLA fight against Khartoum’ (19.03.2017) link: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/israeli-weapons-bound-for-rebels-in-southern-sudan-arms-may-be-destined-for-spla-fight-against-1430077.html

The Sudanese Media Center (SMC) – ‘Interview: IGAD Special Envoy in Khartoum Lissane Yohannes’ (15.05.2017) link: http://smc.sd/en/interview-igad-special-envoy-khartoum-lissane-yohannes/

Ethiopia: Food insecurity intensifies despite late Gu and Belg season rainfall (24.05.2017)

Key Messages

  • Despite enhanced rainfall at the end of April into early May over many areas of Ethiopia, food security outcomes are still expected to deteriorate, particularly in southern and southeastern pastoral areas due to the late start, erratic, and below-average Gu/Genna rains. In portions of Somali Region, the accelerated loss of livestock has significantly expanded food consumption gaps, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in the absence of sustained assistance during June to September. In lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley and in East and West Hararghe, southern Tigray, and portions of northern Amhara, projected outcomes are expected to move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), beginning in June, due to low household purchasing power and a lack of confirmed humanitarian assistance.
  • Late Gu/Genna season rainfall has partially rejuvenated water points for both livestock and human consumption across some woredas of Somali Region, and improved water availability has been reported in Borena and Guji zones of Oromia and South Omo in southern SNNPR. However, the rainfall has not continued into mid-May, and the short-term forecast indicates only moderate rainfall as the season concludes. The current marginal improvements in pasture and water are likely to be depleted by early June, which will mean rangeland resources will rapidly decline, and subsequently livestock body conditions and productivity, until the Deyr/Hageya season in October.
  • Over most Belg-producing areas of the country, extended dry spells through much of April suppressed the growth of Belg crops as well as Meher long-cycle crops. As a result, even if the Belg rains continue through the end of May, lower yields are likely for maize crops in particular, especially in lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley. Due to late planting, the green and dry Belg maize harvest in SNNPR is likely to be delayed by more than two months. Poor households are already experiencing constrained food access as they are highly market dependent during the peak of the lean season. Staple food prices, especially for maize, remain atypically higher.
  • The 2017 HRD initially estimated that 5.6 million people needed humanitarian assistance through June 2017, but the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) has revised higher the number to 7.81 million. In addition, the NDRMC has projected that in Belg-dependent areas, additional PSNP beneficiaries past the traditional six-month period of transfers will need extended support. The NDRMC, JEOP, and WFP completed the first two distribution rounds, and the third round is underway. However, there are logistical constraints that might impede timely distributions.

Ethiopia: Translated Criminal Charges during the State of Emergency!