Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXVIII: Office of the President – Border Incursions by Rwandan Security Forces on Ugandan Territory (04.08.2020)

Opinion: The RNC is weakened as a fraction starts the RAC

This isn’t the first time a sponsored militia goes separate ways. The Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) have created many different outfits and the biggest currently of those is the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD).

In July this year the Rwanda National Congress is split into two parts. This being the RNC run by Kayumba Nyamwasa, who has support from Kampala. While in Canada, the diaspora of RNC have launched the Rwanda Alliance for Change (RAC) on the 6th July 2020. The signatories to the manifesto, which is also online is Bellamin Bakamira, Tabitha Gwiza, Achille Kamana, Anicet Karege, Saleh Musoni Karuranga, Pacifique Mukobwajana, Dr. Etienne Ndagijimana, Jean Paul Turayishimye and Benoit Umuhoza.

Clearly Nyamwasa is losing his support in Canada and that is weakening the RNC. The RNC have been run by him and with his orders. That has over time caused friction and therefore, the new one is created. We can wonder, if the diaspora based RAC will try to convene a meeting in Kisoro or elsewhere in Uganda too. As the RNC have been recruiting in Uganda.

The MRCD is already weakened, as they caused issues for Kigali last year. However, we can wonder how the operations are going. As they have been known for attacks from Burundi. While the RNC have only lost people after high ranking officials held talks in Uganda last year.

This has all created diplomatic entanglements between Kigali and Kampala. As the proxy wars are hitting home. The Kigali based diplomats wants Kampala to stop supporting efforts to undermine their reign. While Kampala doesn’t listen to it. They are continuing it.

We can wonder, other then t he main objective to topple the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Like all of these outfits are claiming is their will. While they cannot work together for too long.

Now that its another militia with goal and objectives in the sphere. That for some reason will be around. We can wonder how big it is and where it will recruit. Even the manpower and their planned operation. Other than going after the RPF and President Kagame.

The only looser here is Nyamwasa and his allies. They are loosing support and getting another competition. While Kigali will get it easier, as there are smaller fractions and will have less suction. It will also be easier for intelligence operations get a whiff of what is going on.

However, we cannot know until more information is out. Clearly, there are shady works being done behind closed doors. Nevertheless, 2020 continues to deliver and we can wonder what costs the RAC will have. Peace.

Rwanda: FDU-Inkingi – Communique de Presse – Les FDU-Inkingi denoncent une eneme tentative de desinformation et de calomnie a leur encontre par le regime du Front Patriotique Rwandais (21.07.2020)

Rwanda: Nsabimana’s testimony doesn’t add up

There are always something shady going on. These sort of affairs that I dwell into here is easily a barrel filled with conspiracies. This being the affairs of the MRCD-UBUMWE, a rebellion out of former rebel groups going together to defeat the Presidency of Kagame and his Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Clearly, when they have been able to take one of the faces of this rebellion. They will mock him, torture him and certainly do what they can to hurt his cause.

The Rwandan Authorities is doing the natural thing charging Major Callixte Nsabimana aka Sankara. That they are taking him to court and apprehending him, only makes sense. However, that they are peddling news about his testimony from Court. Which is refuted both by his allies within the militia forged in 2017 with armed rebels from FNL, FDLR, RRM and CNRD.

All of this makes everything so questionable. Yes, I understand that the authorities wants to undermine the efforts of the MRCD, as they want to overthrow Kagame in Kigali. However, the method of releasing these sorts of allegations are counterproductive. Especially, when it only creates diplomatic spats and statements. Which isn’t serving Zambia or Rwanda. It is only making Kigali looking foolish in the eyes of Lusaka.

Just take a look!

The Report from the Court:

The alleged crimes were committed when Nsabimana was the Spokesperson of the ‘National Liberation Forces (FLN)’, an armed terrorist organisation founded by the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD), a political organisation founded by Paul Rusesabagina, among other members” (…) “When the trial reopened, Nsabimana, who was a self-proclaimed ‘Major’ in FLN accused Zambian President Edgar Lungu of allowing them space to operate in his country to overthrow the Rwandan government” (Edmund Kagire – ‘FLN’s Nsabimana Returns to Court, Alleges Zambian Support’ 13.07.2020, KT Press Rwanda).

MRCD Condemns the lies reported from the trial of Sankara:

The Government of Rwanda exerts all pressure in the form of physical and psychological torture against Major SANKARA to force him to confess at all costs the charges, to incriminate all those who wish to testify in favor of the accused. and to strive to sully the reputation of his political opponents whom he qualifies as terrorists in the pejorative sense! The MRCD – UBUMWE declares itself stunned by this relentlessness of the Rwandan courts which are also working to involve foreign friendly countries in this trial, in particular Zambia and its Head of State Edgar Lungu. The MRCD –UBUMWE takes this opportunity to protest loud and clear against these lies. There is no truth to these allegations at all” (MRCD – ‘CONDAMNATION DES MENSONGES DANS LE PROCÈS du Major Callixte NSABIMANA SANKARA’ 16.07.2020).

Zambia – Testimony not credible:

But Hon. Malanji said he was informed by President Kagame that the allegations are not credible as prior to his arrest, Nsabimana had travelled to five countries that do NOT include Zambia. Hon. Malanji said government will continue to investigate why Nsabimana chose to falsely mention President Edgar Lungu in his court testimony” (Mwebantu – ‘Zambia-Rwanda bilateral ties are sound, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joseph Malanji says’ 17.07.2020).

The reality here is clear. Nsabimana could tell this alleged co-conspirator story for various of reasons. That is to deflect from his own wrong-doings and to hope for a lesser sentence. However, that seems to backfire. When his own outfit, his own militia that he was participating in and defended refutes his testimony. Also, that the Zambian Authorities is responding in disregard to it.

That Lusaka is saying they are not part of this is not shocking. That is expected, no healthy government wants to support and help militias to overthrow regimes in other nations. Unless, they are hoping for a pay-off for the support with time. There seems to very few reasons for Zambia to want to get rid of Kagame. Unless, it would be a ego thing for Lungu. Which seems far-fetched, as Lungu has enough trouble at home to ever consider to cause issues elsewhere.

Another point I will make is that its just weird that this alleged connection is released and spread to the media from the Courts. That the testimony of Nsabimana is all across the continent and the State House of Zambia and Foreign Affairs are addressing it. While, the Rwandan counterparts are not speaking out on it. Like they are hurt that some alleged co-conspirators are willing to undermine Kigali. Which is just by all accounts, made up story and fiction. Seemingly to fit a narrative for the rebel and his cause.

That is why this doesn’t add up. Secondly, the attacks the MRCD have done reportedly on Rwandan soil have come from Burundi, where they crossed the Kibra Forrest in Cibitoka province into Nyungewe Forrest in Ruhengeri district. That is not some lay away base in Zambia, but more influxed and prepared from Burundi.

That’s why I have hard time believing this and yes, there are underlying scepticism from the get-go. Neither, the rebel, the militia major or the ones spreading the news is credible. What is making it even worse. Is that two separate parties, one being the supposed co-conspirator is denying it and the current leadership of militia, which the man who testifies comes from. That is all making it easy to wonder what’s the motives for spreading it in the first place, instead of believing in the allegations. There are enough red-flags for me to even digest it as facts. Peace.

Zambia: Let Diplomacy deal with Rwanda Issue (16.07.2020)

Zambia: Allegations Against President Lungu False (14.07.2020)

Burundi: Forces de Defense National du Burundi – Communique de Presse (27.06.2020)

Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXVII: Final Communique – Fourth Quadripartite Summit between Heads of State and Government of the Republic of Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Uganda and the Republic Rwanda (21.02.2020)

Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXVII: Comunique Final – Quatrieme Sommet Quadripartite entre les Chefs d’Etat et de Gouvernment de la Republique d’Angola, la Republique Democratique du Congo, La Republique de l’Ouganda et la Republique du Rwanda (21.02.2020)