
Not it’s shocking or anything, but the opposition have failed in a way. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) haven’t even been able to get their MPs behind their own party candidate for speaker in the 11th Parliament. Not that it should be automatic for the opposition to vote for an opposition candidate. Still, if they want something different and wants another type of leader at the helm. Than they shouldn’t vote for the ones who has already been puppets of the President.
It is official that Jacob Oulanyah is the next speaker. He got the majority with 310 MPs, which is a weak one in itself. The National Resistance Movement have 336 MPs alone and means someone wasn’t following the party line there as well and voting for the Independent candidate Rebecca Kadaga. If the UPDF MPs are voting directly for NRM causes, that means 300 NRM MPs voted for their own plus the UPDF. That means 36 NRM MPs voted for Rebecca Kadaga, instead of Oulanyah.
What is shocking is that Kadaga most likely got a huge support from the opposition and the independents of the Parliament. As she got 197 votes today. Not that it’s enough to retain her office. However, it shows that the opposition who is 98 MPs. This being the National Unity Platform (NUP) with 57 MPs, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) 32 MPs, Democratic Party (DP) 9 MPs, which is in total 98 MPs. The Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) has an additional 9 MPs, but with the agreement with NRM of the past. It’s hard to call them “opposition” at this point.
There 74 Independent MPs and with opposition MPs is a total of 174 MPs. That is very close to numbers Kadaga got. That means there are several of NRM who voted for her. Clearly, the non-partisan UPDF MPs would automatically vote for Oulanyah. That is securing 10 MPs his way. They follow the chain-in-command at any point of time. We know this and the public knows this too.
Still, the FDC has lost 17 MPs to Kadaga or Oulanyah. That is mediocre approach. That the NUP have shown a weird tactic too. They most likely voted Kadaga is just baffling. That they are doing this politicking. Supporting a former servant of the dictator and giving way to her. Just because she had a brief fallout and lost favours with him.
That the DP could go either way at this point. The UPC is shallow too, but with the numbers and secret ballots. There is just speculations who voted where. However, the ammo for questionable affairs is clear. The strength is within the ruling regime. They can win, even when they are not trying. That shows how the 11th Parliament will be.
I didn’t expect Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda should have more than 32 MPs on his side. Not only 15 MPs, which is only barely half of the FDC group of MPs in Parliament. He has been let down not by the opposition, but by his own party. They have not shown loyalty to their own. The NUP could play where-ever they saw fit. Naye, they clearly went for Kadaga just to spite Museveni. Instead of playing a long-game with FDC. This is not a good sign for the rest of this term.
The NUP and FDC have combined a big block of MPs with 89 MPs in the 11th Parliament. These MPs could made a difference and their votes could have sent a signal to the authorities. However, they instead voted for Kadaga. The FDC, NUP and DP have all backed the former speaker, one way or another. That is what these numbers and secret ballots says.
The opposition let Ssemujju down, but they first needs to look into their own before shelling assaults at NUP or elsewhere. When you cannot even muster support at home. You cannot go across party-lines. The NUP has disappointed me as well, but it’s not shocking. More of their first moves in Parliament. However, I hope they will really work in constructive opposition behaviour and not petty politicking like today. This is not furthering their cause, but only questioning their methods.
The NRM is also not as strong as they trying to portray. As they are lacking total support for their own. They are not collective behind Oulanyah. There are missing MPs who bailed on the NRM CEC decision. That says a lot too. That is something the President needs to think about and reflect upon at the State House. Peace.










