A report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers limited has delivered this month is clearly seeing what others has seen with the economic situation and the use of funds by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and their regime. This report by a company which is an international company who works with other businesses and civil society organizations who needs economic advice and advisory services for taxes and such; therefore the report from PwC on economic situation is telling. Their speciality on their outlook will be saying with auditors and financial analyst whose words means a lot. They are professional analysts in this field are writing and saying this on the economic climate. The Economic climate is worrying and that has been visible. The liability of the growing debt in the republic has been a hazard together with the lacking internal revenue for the state as well. Just take a look!
Sluggish economy with higher debt:
“This bulletin comes at a very crucial time for the Uganda economy when growth is slowing down, private sector credit is on a decline, consumer demand is low, implementation and execution of critical public infrastructure projects is very sluggish, and the public sector debt burden on the economy is at the highest it has ever been” (PwC, P: 3, 2017). “If the domestic revenues collections continue to underperform, the government will be forced to borrow more from the domestic market. The increase in government borrowing may result in a substantial increase in yields on government securities, which may result in an increase in borrowing rates, which may constrain the private sector credit growth even further” (PwC, P: 7, 2017).
“The Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7% in the past four years from 25.9% of GDP in FY 2012/13, to 38.6% of GDP in FY 2016/17. The debt burden is projected to continue rising to 45% of GDP by 2020. Debt as a percentage of revenues has risen by 54% since 2012 and is expected to exceed 250% by 2018. The country’s ever increasing debt burden has resulted in a deterioration of the debt affordability situation” (PwC, P: 8, 2017). “Uganda’s capital expenditures are still too reliant on external finance. Currently debt servicing constitutes 11% of the total government expenditure, one of the highest debt burdens in sub-Saharan Africa. This is expected to increase to 16% of the total government expenditure by 2018. Uganda’s debt burden has risen faster than the government’s own resources, resulting in a debt-to-revenue ratio of 236%, one of the highest amongst B-rated countries. This has prompted Moody’s recent down grade of Uganda’s long-term bond rating by one notch to B2 from B1” (PwC, P: 8, 2017).
An Economy with challenges:
“2016 was an economically difficult year for Uganda. The economy faced numerous challenges due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the recovery in global economic growth, weak commodity prices and geopolitical events in our key trading partners. As a result, of these numerous challenges, our export earnings, FDI flows and remittances to Uganda all went down. These developments, together with a slowdown in the execution of public investment projects and weaker than expected private sector demand, had a major effect on the economy” (…) “Other internal risks include delays in the implementation of public infrastructure projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) linking Uganda to its East African neighbours, and the key infrastructure projects critical for the commencement of oil production” (PwC, P: 4-5, 2017).
If you are worried by the Republic and their economy after this, than you haven’t followed the class since this signs have been there for while! The state of the economy is fragile and the debt rise should concern all the ones inside the Republic and also outside. However, this could change, but that has to be done by the government and steer in another direction as today. The greed and the common sense of developing the economy is forgotten, as they are fixated on infrastructure projects and oil developments, while borrowing to fill the losses of donor-aid and internal revenue. This could be done in many ways, but that would not be easy. Peace.
PricewaterhouseCoopers Limited (PwC) – ‘Uganda Economic Outlook 2017’ (February 2017)
Well, an election year and campaigning as a tyrant and dictator cost, the fortunes splashed on fellow peers and citizens to buy goodwill costs. The price usually happens after the splash funds on villages and on buses. The estimated exhaust of funds and State House can strain the economy. Therefore after elections in the past there been rising food-prices, more expensive oil and gas and other needed imported goods for the average citizen.
This is happening as the donor-community doesn’t have the same faith in the Movement or the President that been there since 1986. His longevity is now hurting him, as his tricks of trade isn’t building steady progress, instead he is using up every single allocation to make sure the loyal servants and movement peers are paid-in-full, even as his own party haven’t paid salaries for months. There are rumours of how the Special Force Command with Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has gotten their salaries received as much there are questions of the government bailouts of the friends and business-mates of Gen. Salim Selah.
Still, the economic problems continue to arise, the ill-minded would say there hope of wealth, but the lack of transparency, misused funds as the Uganda Revenue Authority – Oil Money scheme and other’s prove there are lacking accountability for how the government funds are spent. This with the knowledge of the lacking salaries to teachers and even Local Government funds that are spent without concern of showing where it got spent; all these activities doesn’t give confidence and trust between the stakeholders and citizens.
With all of this in mind the revelation that the growing debt are now eating too much of government spending, as the arising splashing of funds to civil servants are happening; the reports from Bank of Uganda (BoU) isn’t a beautiful fairy-tale, instead it is doom.
“In its state-of-the-economy report for December 2016, BOU said: “There are also perceptions in the market that Uganda may not be able to service its rising debt levels.” (…) “The central bank said external debt has grown rapidly and, on a commitment basis, is now estimated at $10.7bn as at end of October 2016. BOU said: “A lump up [in] infrastructure investment has contributed to a rise in our debt portfolio in recent years.” (…) “Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7 per cent to 38.6 per cent of GDP in 2016/17 from 25.9 per cent of GDP in 2012/13. BOU says it is projected to continue rising towards 45 per cent of GDP by 2020” (Mwesigwa, 2017).
That the Movement and the NRM are not able to service their debt, is an indication and will also create a problem with the banks and multi-national financial institutions that has offered these loans to help the government with the day-to-day operations of a sufficient government, as well as offering loans to promising infrastructure projects. These all are now in danger of defaulting loans. These levels are estimated to become 45% of the income of the Republic, which is not the sign of riches; more of poverty and mismanagement. The Executive that has been leading the nations for the decades have seen the signs of the wall, but instead of telling the truth; he has promised industrial revolution and amazing progress that would be bigger than when the United Kingdom found out how to earn money on the Steam-Engine. The same kind of promises to become a middle income nation, when your debt burden is arising as rapidly as it is doing now.
This should be worrying as the Movement has revealed and gotten released plans for own total production and releasing own notes, that could also increase possibilities of devaluing the currency, this with growing debt can create a hyper-inflation that only his fellow comrade has been able to create in Zimbabwe. That is the worst case scenario if the bank-notes production gets out of bond to sort of make quick fortunes for the Movement.
The Movement has all their days used any kind of acts to get monies for themselves and hide it away, only when gotten public they needed to have inquiries and detain the ones that not kingpins, but the low-level employees that doesn’t hurt the leadership. Therefore the concern of not a fiscal well-thought monetary policy, as the Movement are more settled on building projects without having to have giant loans from Multi-National Monetary lenders like IMF; AfDB and others. These loans has to be paid back and also with interest. As the Government bonds has also lost their track compared to the need of sufficient funding. These institutional defaults and as well with the lack of clear conscience of the use of funds, shows the Movement has to step up their game if they don’t want their currency and their budget to lack funds for the coming budget year.
The growing loans will also stop the amount of absorbed funds in the republic goes down as the government has to use bigger parts of the resources on loans, as the extended collected funds from URA might have grown, but they are not collecting enough to keep up with the debt. If so they wouldn’t have defaulted and probably would have paid their interest and debt rate as promised when they we’re accepting taking on the debt.
Time for the Movement and their regime to charge, change patterns, their eating as much as they can, but they will leave the next one with a huge bill of no-confidence, while their short-term riches will be spoiled and devalued as the coming depressing economic stability will not give the market and the currency the needed trust as it should has a tool for exchange values between two parties. Peace.
Mwesigwa, Alon – ‘CENTRAL BANK WARNS ABOUT RISING DEBT’ (06.01.2017) link: http://www.observer.ug/business/50631-central-bank-warns-about-rising-debt
“Bank of Uganda has assured law makers that the country’s economy remains financial shallow, to accommodate structures such as capping of interest. A dialogue here in Kampala between Members of Parliament, and the financial sector regulator also heard that current loan defaults at 8.3%, makes lending risky. In Kenya, legislators successfully passed a motion that was signed into law by President Uhuru Kenyatta, capping interest rates at 14%, aimed at shielding borrowers from spikes” (NTV Uganda, 2016)
This here is prove the numbers, this here does not prove who have the major accounts; on the surface as he page shows numbers, but not the accounts or who’s name that is behind the coded accounts from the HSBC Swiss Bank leak. This here proves that standards and values of how much money that leaves the countries and get into secret accounts in Switzerland.
This proves the values and the estimated amount of money in the accounts. In this here that I found on the page is very little direct as I don’t have somebody on the insides, that gives the documents. Therefore here is the raw-numbers and estimated that have been sent from East Africa. In this article I just have some persons who are connected, but not many of the holders of the accounts from the leak.
“30 client accounts opened between 1988 and 2006 and linked to 32 bank accounts. 14 clients are associated with Burundi. 21% have a Burundian passport or nationality. The total estimated values in the accounts are $30.2M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Burundi was $8.3M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
Burundi Country Profile – Aziza Kulsum Gulamali:
“Listed as living in Belgium, Kulsum was linked to three HSBC numbered client accounts opened between 1990 and 1997. One account –15208BAMA– linked to two bank accounts that together held as much as $3.26 million in 2006/2007, was later blocked for unspecified compliance reasons. She showed up as a joint account holder of that numbered client account. The other two accounts were closed in 1995 and 2000” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
Democratic Republic of Congo:
“182 clients are associated with DR Congo. 2% have a Congolese (Kinshasa) passport or nationality. 245 client accounts opened between 1984 and 2006 and linked to 299 bank accounts. The total estimated values in the accounts are $179.8M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to DR Congo was $60.3M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
DRC Country Profile – Jaynet Désirée Kabila Kyungu:
“Jaynet Désirée Kabila Kyungu is the twin sister of Joseph Kabila, the president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Famed for secrecy and meticulousness, she was elected to parliament in November 2011 and took office in February 2012. Kabila is the president of the Laurent Desire Kabila Foundation, named after her father, and owner of Digital Congo, a television, Internet and radio conglomerate. In 2015, Jeune Afrique reported that Kabila had become “the most influential person in the president’s entourage.” (…)”Keratsu Holding Limited was incorporated in Niue on June 19, 2001, a few months after Kabila’s brother became president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Jaynet Désirée Kabila Kyungu appeared as co-director with Congolese businessman Kalume Nyembwe Feruzi. The DRC Company Keratsu Holding Ltd has owned stakes in one of the DRC’s major mobile phone operators” (Eagle.co.ug, 2016).
“29 clients are associated with Ethiopia. 24% have a Ethiopian passport or nationality. 31 client accounts opened between 1986 and 2004 and linked to 55 bank accounts. The total estimated values in the accounts are $10M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Ethiopia was $2M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
“32 clients are associated with Eritrea. 28% have a Eritrean passport or nationality. 24 client accounts opened between 1981 and 2006 and linked to 39 bank accounts. The total estimated values in the accounts are $699.6M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Eritrea was $695.2M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
“The county or people of Kenyan nationality have 1,093 bank accounts, which with 463 client accounts opened between 1975 and 2006 and linked to 1,093 bank accounts. 742 clients are associated with Kenya. 32% have a Kenyan passport or nationality. The total estimated values in the accounts are $559.8M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Kenya was $35.8M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
Kenyan Country Profile – Johnson Nduya Muthama:
“HSBC files recorded Muthama’s name in connection with the client account “ROCKLAND96”, which was set up in 1996 and closed in 2000. Muthama was also linked to the numbered client account “20443NM” over the same period. Bank files listed eight of his relatives – named Nduya Muthama – also linked to the numbered account. The leaked files do not specify the exact role that he had in relation to the accounts” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
Kenyan Country Profile No.2 – Lady Justice Rawal:
“She and her husband were listed as directors at Forrell Real Estate Inc from 2001 to 2007 and Rocklane Properties Ltd from 2001 to 2003, which were notably active after her appointment to the Judiciary in 2000. She was also a director and shareholder at Ubique Services Ltd in 1994 and shareholder at Highworth Management Services in 1995. All four firms were registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI), a notorious tax haven” (…)”The Kenyan Constitution makes it illegal for judges, being state officers, to open and operate offshore bank accounts. Chapter Six, Article 76 (2) (a) states: “A State officer shall not maintain a bank account outside Kenya except in accordance with an Act of Parliament” (Kubania, 2016).
Rwanda Country Profile – Emmanuel Ndahiro:
“”Emmanuel Ndahiro became a director of British Virgin Islands company Debden Investments Limited in September 1998, the same year in which Ndahiro regularly appeared in international news as a spokesman of the Rwandan army. Debden reportedly owned a jet aircraft. At the time of his appointment, Ndahiro’s listed address was a building in a commercial section of a West London neighborhood. Hatari Sekoko, a former soldier with the Rwandan Patriotic Front and now a major business executive, was the company’s owner. The company was deactivated in 2010.” (ICIJ.com, 2016)
“7 clients are associated with Somalia. 29% have a Somali passport or nationality. 10 client accounts opened between 1990 and 2003 and linked to 22 bank accounts. The total estimated values in the accounts are $15.5M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Somalia was $12.2M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
“99 clients are associated with Tanzania. 20% have a Tanzanian passport or nationality. 91 client accounts opened between 1982 and 2006 and linked to 286 bank accounts. The total estimated values in the accounts are $114M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Tanzania was $20.8M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
“83 client accounts opened between 1972 and 2006 and linked to 212 bank accounts. There is now as the leak where happening 57 clients with Ugandan Passports or Nationality. The total estimate to be in value in the accounts is $89,3M. The maximum amount of money associated with a client connected to Uganda was $8.8M” (ICIJ.com, 2016).
The numbers speak for themselves and the amount of money is staggering, this is most likely through one of giant Swiss Banks of the HSBC where the money have gone through and filtered in secret accounts. This here proves the levels of accountability and how the rich and elites filters away money from the country where they are earning money to have less tax or not being taxed in the under the regime some of them works for or is close by.
There lacking of accountability and senseless stealing of funds in between the different countries, as the scandals are rocking often. As state house and other governmental institutions missing funds before the fiscal years over, or lacking the economy to pay the salaries to their civil servants. Secondly is the free-based economy that gives edges and corporate greed who can strive without beneficial taxation and gives way for the movement of funds from the country the business is in; into a country that are a Tax-Paradise where the ones with the account can be secret and not pay what they are expected. If not it can be away of embezzling the funds or white-wash the funds as shell-companies are holders for the monies, while the owners tries to find a great use for the funds. Peace.
Eagle.co.ug – ‘Sons, daughters and business associates to African presidents’ top Panama leaks’ (04.04.2016) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2016/04/04/sons-daughters-business-associates-african-presidents-top-panama-leaks.html
Kubania, Jacqueline – ‘Deputy CJ Rawal among high-profile Kenyans with firms in tax havens’ (04.04.2016) link: http://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Rawal-among-high-profile-Kenyans-with-firms-in-tax-havens/-/1950946/3144804/-/format/xhtml/-/ioefn5z/-/index.html