Opinion: Bribes are NRM’s M.O. during elections, however EC Chairman Byabakama says its a “evil partner”.

Today I am writing about certain comments made by the guy that took over the Election Commission after Dr. Badru Kiggundu, he is legend for his ways and his math. So Dr. Kiggundu will not be forgotten, that is why I have struggled to take this fellow serious. Because Kiggundu destroyed the EC and made it look like a foolish organization filled with cronies who has a love-affair with Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. That is true and therefore, all By-Elections since the General Elections 2016 have been in favor of National Resistance Movement (NRM), except Kyadondo East, which Bobi Wine topped with his huge star-power and speeches. So that Justice Simon Byabakama hasn’t been on my radar. This because the NRM has controlled and in-certain themselves in the by-election, where the opposition parties and independents has no control. Byabakama couldn’t do anything wrong and the NRM can just do whatever. That is how it has been for various reasons, but the NRM are really not trying to have a multi-party state, that is just a piece of flesh on the bone for donor-aid, but not for reality.

So before I rant, here is the statements on the EC Boss I will discuss today:

“According to Byabakama, bribery has become an evil partner with elections in Uganda. “But we are made to understand that bribery has become an evil partner with elections in this country, this undermines the quality of democracy,” he said” (…) “The law says an election result can be cancelled on grounds of bribery, despite the amount involved” (…) “Can you imagine an exercise that has cost the stakeholders, including security about sh1b being cancelled because of sh1,000 or a sachet of waragi or bar of soap? Do we really have to go to the school of economics to understand that this is not tenable in economic terms?” Byamukama wondered” (Nambogga, 2018)

Well, Byabakama have been under a rock or not followed what the party that appointed him and anointed him to become Electoral Commission Chairperson. That the Chairperson didn’t know how the ruling regime and the ruling party has acted during elections. It isn’t only misuse the army and the police as a political tool during elections. All of the state coffers and reserves are used.

Therefore, that the Chairperson Byabakama are now saying bribes are bad. He should start discussing this with the Entebbe State House. Who has sanctions the give-aways to Pastors, Residential District Commanders and others who was getting Prado’s and SUV’s within days of the Election. That is the big buys of loyalty and bribes.

The others are the voter tourism, a definition that came about because between 2015 and 2016, the NRM party and their organizers hired buses, paid t-shirts and food for villagers to bigger local rallies. They even gave smaller sums of cash to the people to listen to Museveni and the group of musicians that was also paid massively for their campaigning for the President. It is sort of hard to forget the massive amounts of shillings spent on the Campaigning of the President. Only for November 2015, the NRM Party spent massively 125bn shillings. That is something one report said and could calculate. The other months up-to February 2016. Can question the whole spending of the NRM. Every single rally before the February 2016 was biggest breaches of bribery of voters. It’s like the Chairman was blind to this or was himself in Finland while it was happening.

The evil partner of bribery is built in the system of corrupt behavior from the State House. They misuse all parts of government and all parts of society. If there isn’t loyalty, it can be shut-down. That is how Museveni works.

So my question to Byabakama: Will you ask His Excellency, if the Party has any plans of stopping to bribe the public every time there is an election?

If you do? Can you also get the New Vision to publish that too? So we can again see how to-faced Museveni is. Thanks. Peace.

Reference:

Nambogga, Jackie – ‘EC Boss warns against bribery in politics’ (04.02.2018) link: https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1470404/ec-boss-warns-bribery-politics

Political Parties spending during campaigns in November and December 2015; NRM buying shirts and ferrying crowds; while the others Parties use meager funds their campaigns

This here has been address by others, but this is my view on the report released by NGOs recently. So here is my view on how the parties have spent on the two months, and the issue is that is very important to discuss. Since this is use of money to gain power or to shape the political landscape. The use of moneys and what you use it on show the values and to what extend you will pay to either continue or get power. The pages are after the counting system of Acrobat document, the official document will have different numbers because Acrobat count the empty pages in the beginning also. Therefore the numbers are higher then what it is in the report and don’t get that confused. I just do it to make it easy.

“The minimum amount of money observed to have been spent by parties and their flag bearers in the observed districts was UGX 49.6 billion in November and 88.1 billion in December representing an increase of 77% over the two months. This increase is largely attributed to the commencement of member or parliament campaigns having been nominated on the 3rd and 4th of December 2015” (…)”ACFIM observers reported use of motorcades, bodabodas cyclists, entertainers; and provided transport refund, food and drinks for supporters that accompanied them to nomination and attended the nomination rallies” (P: 8, 2016).

“Assessment of Minimum Expenses by Party:

According to ACFIM observers, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party candidates are leading by far terms of campaign spending. The party accounts for 87% of the total minimum observed expenditures reported by ACFIM Research Assistants/Observers in the months of November and December. NRM is trailed by Independent Candidates who have spent 7.9%, FDC (2.1%), Go Forward political group (1.1%), DP (0.5%), UPC (0.3%) and other parties (0.3%)” (P: 10, 2016).

NRM Minimum costs:

There has been observed how the NRM have been using funds on their candidates and campaigning from June 2015 to December 2015. This here proves yet again to what extent the ruling parties secure loyalty and MPs. Every NRM Village has spent minimum UGX 15m. The delegates conference for the constitutional amendment they spent UGX 19M. The Second delegate’s conference to elect Flag-Bearer UGX 20M; then it’s the monies spent to MPs to secure the vote for sole-candidacy that was UGX 6M. They also spent money for Posh Cars for party officials UGX 10M. Last was paying for the NRM Primaries which cost about UGX 30M. That means the minimum cost for NRM we’re UGX 100M (P: 12, 2016). That is before you really start to campaign!

Expenses of Presidential Candidates in November and December:

“The candidate Yoweri Museveni accounts for majority of the total minimum expenditure with 91.6% of the total minimum expenses recorded. Candidate Museveni is followed by Amama Mbabazi whose expenditure accounts for 4.6% and Kizza Besigye (3.3%). The rest of the candidates spent less than 1.0% combined” (P: 16, 2016).

NRM giving money away to gain support:

“The Money Man”; He is retired Leut. Gen. Henry Tumukunde. He was handing over UGX 20million to an association of vendors in Entebbe Market in December. He has been leading the advance party of candidate Yoweri Museveni. Observers in Arua reported that he handed out UGX 50,000 to 400 voters who claimed to have converted from FDC – they met him at White Castle Hotel in Arua” (P: 19, 2016).

Expenses on Journalists by Presidential Candidate (Nov & Dec):

“Yoweri Museveni outstrips his competitors in terms of expenditure on facilitation of Journalists on campaign trail. Observers report that candidate Yoweri Museveni has a team on 20 local journalists (electronic and print) that are covering his campaign trail, each of these journalists receives daily upkeep (per diem and incidentals) of UGX 150,000 from the candidate’s campaign coordination team. In addition when the candidate conducts regional press conferences, the facilitation for journalists attending the press conference rises to UGX 500,000 and about 50 journalists can be in attendance (i.e. the 20 on campaign trail are joined by 20-30 others from the region). Journalists on candidate Amama Mbabazi campaign trail get up a reported minimum of UGX 40,000 while journalists covering candidate Kizza Besigye and others get much less or nothing” (P: 31, 2016).

Voter Tourism:

“Voter tourism as the practice by candidates where voters are provided with buses, trucks, minibuses or cars and driven from their homes to campaign rallies or around the constituency as an inducement to voters in return for their support come polling day. Clearly a poor voter who has not sat in an automobile for a year or more will be more than excited to enjoy the ride provided by the political candidate free of charge. Voter tourism has been prevalent in November and December with candidates of the NRM party most commonly observed engaging in this campaign tactic. Voter hospitality on the other hand is a situation where political candidate host voters to a banquet or party or meal or retreat where are treated to a good meal, animals slaughtered and cooked or roasted, lots of drinks including booze, music/disco, live entertainment and sometimes lodging in a comfortable hotel, motel or lodge. Voter tourism and voter hospitality were prevalent in November and December with majority of candidates across political parties complicity to this” (P: 41, 2016). To continue why the candidates use this tactic; “Political candidates that have been observed to engage in campaign tactics like voter tourism and voter hospitality in November and December, do not do so because they are generous, but because they expect recipients to return the favour. The timing of these offers in the middle of an election campaign and the nature of intended beneficiaries for this generosity is clear manifestation that the aim is to induce voters in return for their support on February 18th, 2016. This clearly is voter bribery” (P: 43, 2016)

Misuse of Government Resources:

“On the 9th of November 2015 a number of government vehicles were used on candidate Museveni’s rally held at Kasana Play Ground. Some of the vehicle registration plates observed in action at the rally include: UG2183C, UG 0178H, UG1427W, UG 0187D, UG 2688D, UG 2183C, UG 2043C, UG 2405C. UG 1832S, UG1768C. Observers in Katikamu report that on the same day government vehicle number UG 2708R was used to transport supporters to Kasana playground” (P: 44, 2016). “Similarly on December 3rd 2015 dependent candidate for Katikamu South Member of Parliament Patricia Magara was observed using a bus with government number plates to ferry campaign attendees from different sub counties to her nomination rally in Bulakasa” (P: 45, 2016).

The minimum NRM expenses of only November 2015 are 125,219,922,000! (P: 50, 2016) That is a lot’s of money. I will point out some special expenses that the NRM party has used this giant UGX 125bn on campaign for November 2015! That is lots of lots money! For Voter Tourism they have used UGX 140m in November alone. Allowances for 500 Special Force Command men as Campaign Security total pay cost UGX 300m in November alone. On Yellow T-shirts the NRM party used UGX 15,806bn that is a lot on type of item, it surely is to sprite up those campaign rallies and Yellow crowds! After quick calculations they used close to UGX 1,4bn on media advertisements on TV, Radio and Newspapers. On campaign posters the hefty sum of UGX 1,7bn (P: 49-50, 2016).

Though FDC used a UGX 1bn as the biggest opposition party, it still proves the total use of funds from NRM. I am not surprised with all the knowledge of voter tourism and also giving away foods and items at their campaign venues. The tally has to get big for the ruling party with all the hiring of buses and such proves how much their viable to use to get the perfect crowds and pictures to the press. Like yesterday there we’re reports of a village that was the size of 500 people, the NRM had a campaign rally of 20,000. Surely they had some buses and shipped them to that venue as they have done before and hired bus-companies to travel and pay to get crowds. Something FDC and the other parties does not do.

The NRM proves to be the big-spender and would be surprised if the result from a NGO would be different, maybe if Ofwono Opondo would describe it differently.  He said this recently: “It is true that NRM is outspending other parties. It is true that we spent over UGX32b during NRM primaries” (…)”We are spending the money locally. We are buying t-shirts, water, paying musicians, hire cars from Ugandans” (…)”There’s no evidence that money being spent by political parties is causing inflation pressure” (TheInsider, 2016).

Mr Opondo is not a giant economic sense of a guy, the extended monies into use without monetary policy can lead into higher inflations, that is why the two recent elections periods in Uganda in 2006 and 2001 that the inflations rate we’re escalating and also led to higher prices on the household commodities. But Mr. Opondo has a way of forgetting such while his party is big spending. As they have their own “Money Man” during the campaign and continue to support the level of Voter Tourism. I am surely they have an own warehouse just for Yellow T-Shirts near a Headquarter of the NRM. They should they have used such a fortune on it and the ones they haven’t given away should be stored well.

The war-chest of NRM must be huge. As the reports before November was expected that NRM would use UGX 500bn, and by seeing the results of November alone in this report proves that those estimations was spot-on. If you can calculate the same amount for December and January; then you get up to the estimated usage of NRM party. Mzee surely like to make blast and bang while using spin-doctors to portray him as the national father of the country. While the other parties can nearly scrap enough funding for their own campaigns! And the other parties can’t use government equipment like the NRM does once in a while. As this report has pointed out and none of us who follows the NRM should be shocked and awe, it’s more the same old story. Well, that was enough for today. Peace!

Reference:

Alliance for Campaign – ‘MONITORING CAMPAIGN EXPENSES DURING

THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD’ – PROGRESS REPORT NOVEMBER – DECEMBER 2015

The Insider – ‘Opondo: NRM money won’t cause inflation’ (23.01.2016) link: http://www.theinsider.ug/opondo-nrm-money-wont-cause-inflation/

Freighting numbers from the Bank of Uganda released now right before this election season.

Well, we are in the middle of election hiatus and all, the Nomination and planned campaign that last to 18^th February 2016. This here will not be on that, but be crunches numbers delivered from the Bank of Uganda Yearly report for the 2014/2015 budget year. This here will tell what I see as important from that report.

“The external position weakened with the current account deficit excluding official grants deteriorating to 11 percent of GDP compared to 8,8 percent in 2013/14. The deterioration of the current account deficit was largely driven by the services deficit, which deteriorated to US$ 731 Million in 2014/15 from USD 323 million in 2013/14 mainly account of higher payments  of government services related to infrastructure projects, particularly Karuma and Isimba Hydro Power Projects” (BoU P:1).

That is big change in deficit! That must be a bit worrying that the amount of monies is becoming this big. Also with the infrastructure projects makes so big hunch of that deficit.

“Financial Risk:

Financial risk management at Bank of Uganda focuses on the risk exposures in both the foreign exchange reserves portfolio as well as other operational areas of the Bank. Notably, foreign exchange reserves account for over 86 percent (2014: 74 percent) of BOU’ assets” (BoU, P: 12).

A lot of foreign exchange is major parts of the reserves of the bank. Is that a safe way to do it and doesn’t that devalue its own currency?

“The higher than programmed expenditure was partly, compensated for by the over performance in government revenue. Total government revenue, including grants amounted to UGX. 10,866.0 Billion, which has higher than target by UGX. 249.1 Billion. Grants and domestic revenues over performed by UGX. 173. 0 Billion, respectably” (BoU, P: 28).

The good news is that Government is able to collect more revenue as of taxation and grants to the Government. Though we can say it is a steady rise and the bank doesn’t explain how the rise happen, because this can’t all be collected on the Cellphone, Alcohol or VAT taxes, but something else.

“The fiscal deficit of UGX 3,621 Billion was financed by both domestic and external source, which amounted to UGX. 2,479.0 Billion and UGX. 919 billion, respectively. Domestic financing included a drawdown on savings amounting to UGX. 1,060.0 Billion and net issuance of Government securities of UGX. 1,386.0 Billion. The drawdone of savings was specifically used to finance expenditures related to the public infrastructure projects” (BoU, P: 29).

This here continues on how the financed and the fiscal deficit and sure the drawdone on the savings to build infrastructure projects.

“Public Debt:

The total public debt stock, in nominal terms, at end June 2015 is estimated at UGX. 24,242.0 billion, an increase of 24,2 percent of UGX. 19.518. 0 Billion at end of June 2014. External and domestic debt increased by 27,7 percent and 21,1 percent, respectively” (BoU, P: 29).

This here is frightening how much the rise is steady and getting more… The terms of it and the rise should make people shake their heads and worry.  The Government of Uganda continues to hedge the Public loans and having a rise like this can’t be a sign of a healthy economy.

“Exchange rates:

The depreciation pressures which started in early 2014 continued through June 2015, with the Shilling depreciating by 18,8 percent year-on-year on a trade weighted basis and by 29.1 percent against the USD to an average mid-rate of UGX. 3,398,49 per USD” BoU, P: 31).

That the currency loses value towards the dollar should also be worring. When you see how much shillings you need now to get the dollar now.

“Petroleum Revenue Investment Fund:

In June 2015, the Government opened two accounts (UGX and USD) in order to operationalize the PF. These accounts are to receive all oil related revenues. In June 2015, USD 36 million was received as part payment of the USD 250 million capital gains tax (CGT) liability from Tullow. This sum includes USD 142 million received in 2012 and USD 108 million to be paid in three equal installments of USD 36 million in 2015, 2016 and 2017” (BoU, P: 45).

“During the year, an amount of UGX 1,607,814 million was transferred from the Oil Tax Revenue  Fund to Uganda Consolidation Fund. This balance relates to an amount of UGX 1,161,737 million from Tullow Oil paid to GOU for the settlement of tax dispute between the Government and Heritage Oil & Gas (U) Limited. It also includes stamp duty of USD 171 million (UGX 447 million) on sale of Tullow Oil’s assets to Total and CNOOC” (BoU, P: 107).

“In addition, the bank received USD 36 million (UGX 119,057 million) on 22 June 2015 on behalf of GoU, relating to Tranche 1 Tullow Oil tax settlement” (BoU P: 107).

“Ugandan Consolidation Fund refers to the Government appropriation account where all tax receipts are credited and appropriations made. During 2014/15, UGX 1,612,080 million relating to the oil tax revenue collections was transferred to the UFC” (BoU, P: 107).

As seen Petroleum Revenue Investment Fund and Oil Tax revenue shows how the oil impact has on the economy. We can also see the result of the longstanding dispute of the Government of Uganda and Tullow Oil Company. That has now been overturned and gotten the Total and CNOOC. There will be more monies at stake on a later stage coming with the found oil in the Bunyoro area and Lake Albert.

Presidential Airplane:

“The special loan to government relates to an advance to government for procurement of the presidential aircraft with interest rates (LIBOR plus 100 basis points), maturity date and repayment terms agreed between Ministry of Finance and the Bank as stipulated in the memorandum of understanding. The last loan instalment was paid off on 24 July 2015” (BoU, P: 107).

That was an expensive airplane for the president! Though it’s all back-paid this still shows how the President buys what he needs and wants, and not what the people need.

Uganda Consolidation Fund: (by the 31. June of the year)

2014 it was UGX 3, 245,961 million.

2015 it was UGX 2, 386,056 million.

(BoU, P: 117).

As proof with the rising debt and deficits, even with rise of higher taxs returns the Government of Uganda. Stills shows that their spending more than they getting since the Taxation fund is dwindling and become less and smaller account. That in total with the other numbers should be a worrying thing to see. Especially knowing how the NRM-Regime goes mayhem on the economy the coming months of elections paying for every votes with chickens and goats in the districts. We have seen that before and will see it again. This will also lead to rise of inflation with more running through the economy so the value of the currency might also dwindle towards on dollar. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Shilling comes up to 4,000 on a dollar!

And that is not a good luck, since the imports and prices will rise for the rise of cost of imports. But hope my predictions isn’t correct, but election cycles usual make the ordinary voter pay and those receiving just get a patch on the wound created by the mayhem done to economy by the ruling regime. Peace.

Reference:

Bank of Uganda (BoU) – Annual Report 2014/2015

Press Release No. 15/02: IMF Executive Board Completes First PSI Review for Tanzania

January 7, 2015

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed today the first review of Tanzania’s economic performance under the program supported by the Policy Support Instrument (PSI)¹ and granted a waiver for the non-observance of the continuous assessment criterion on the non-accumulation of external arrears.

The PSI for Tanzania was approved by the Executive Board on July 16, 2014 (see Press Release No. 14/350). Tanzania’s program under the PSI supports the authorities’ medium-term objectives. These include: the maintenance of macroeconomic stability, the preservation of debt sustainability, and the promotion of more equitable growth and job creation.

Following the Board discussion, Mr. Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement:

“Macroeconomic developments in Tanzania remain favorable. Economic growth was strong during the first half of 2014 and is expected to remain close to 7 percent. Inflation remains in mid-single digits, consistent with the authorities’ target of 5 percent by June 2015.“

Performance under the Policy Support Instrument was satisfactory through June, but has deteriorated since and risks have risen, stemming from delays in disbursements of donor assistance and external nonconcessional borrowing, and shortfalls in domestic revenues. Against this backdrop, the authorities’ commitment to keep the program on track is welcome, and they have reaffirmed their intention to meet the budget deficit target and will review revenues and adjust expenditures accordingly in the context of the mid-year budget review. It will be critical to the business environment to address the governance issues raised by the IPTL case, which would also unlock donor assistance.

“It will be important to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. The conversion of monetary policy instruments to financing papers facilitated the front-loading of capital expenditures but complicated monetary policy implementation. It will be more effective and less disruptive to accommodate the planned expenditure through better planning to align spending and financing.“

“The issue of domestic arrears, which continued to accumulate, needs to be addressed comprehensively and forcefully. Work to verify and eventually clear arrears to suppliers already incurred is ongoing. The authorities’ plan to prevent future arrears accumulation is appropriately ambitious and will require sustained implementation. Addressing arrears to pension funds and making government relations with them more transparent is also critical to their sustainability.”

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¹ The PSI is an instrument of the IMF designed for countries that do not need balance of payments financial support. The PSI helps countries design effective economic programs that, once approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, signal to donors, multilateral development banks, and markets the Fund’s endorsement of a member’s policies (seehttp://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/psi.htm). Details on Tanzania’s PSI program are available at www.imf.org/tanzania.