China-Uganda relationship benefits the Chinese, BoU Paper states!

This should not surprise you, that the Chinese government and their subsidiary businesses are making sure they are gets the best deal with the Ugandan counterparts. The Bank of Uganda policy paper are spelling out the advantages for the Chinese in the bilateral and the state-to-state offerings given to the Ugandans. They are clearly getting infrastructure loans and plyaing minor rolse in GVCs, therefore, the Ugandans are people loaning for infrastructure and then repaying, while the Chinese contractors and Chinese labor are working on the indebted projects. Just take a look, it is not a positive read!

“It should be emphasised, however, that for Uganda to leverage the shifting growth dynamics in China (such as a shrinking labour force, rising wages and an appreciated Renminbi), it must create a conducive investment climate. Low wages and a competitive exchange rate alone will not make much difference without reliable power and transport links, or in the face of suffocating bureaucracy and corruption” (Bank of Uganda, P: 6, 2017).

“With the migration of labour-intensive manufacturing shifting from China and an improvement in investment climate, Uganda also stands to expand its involvement in global trade, including Global Value Chains (GVCs). Historically, countries like Uganda have played a relatively minor role in GVCs. Figure 5 below, which illustrates a useful measure of Uganda’s integration in GVCs, relative to other sub-Saharan countries, indicates that Uganda is below the average value-chain position for developing countries” (Bank of Uganda, P: 6, 2017).

“It must be pointed out that while China has emerged as a significant financer of infrastructure projects in Africa, it still lags behind both private investment and the more traditional sources of funding. Recent research actually reveals that, over the past few years, China has contributed about only one-sixth of the US$30 billion Africa receives annually as external finance for infrastructure” (…) “Moreover, most of this financing to the transport and energy sector takes the form of state-to-state, non-concessional deals and comes from the Export-Import Bank of China (China Exim Bank). Examples of the major state-to-state deals signed with China Exim Bank in Uganda include: US$1.4 billion and US$483 million for Karuma and Isimba hydropower dams as well as US$350 million for the construction of the Kampala-Entebbe express highway” (Bank of Uganda, P: 7-8, 2017).

“For Uganda, which has so far committed up to US$ 2.3 billion in contracts with China Exim bank and is soon to take on more debt for projects like the Standard Gauge Railway, debt sustainability is a growing issue of concern; underscored by the fact that the country faces a low tax-to-GDP ratio relative to its regional peers and significant public investment challenges. Uganda’s debt as a percentage of revenues has risen by 54% since 2012 and is expected to exceed 250% by 2018, raising calls for caution and improved public investment management from various policy circles including the IMF, World Bank and Moody’s, which downgraded Uganda’s long-term bond rating in 2016 citing deteriorating debt affordability” (Bank of Uganda, P: 10, 2017).

This here report shows both the possible troubles with the debt, that already are problem with current budget, but will become bigger. Secondly, that the relationship and bilateral business agreements with China, will only benefit China and not Uganda. As they might get the infrastructure projects, but they have to repay the debt and also use funds on labor from the Chinese contractors and businesses. They are not hiring and educating locals to work these sorts, because Chinese are getting their own hired.

This here is not bringing positive results, but instead are being a nice debt collector for China and will be indebted to them. While the Ugandans gets scarps from the Chinese, as the infrastructure projects like the Dam they have bought on debt, has been said is “shoddy” work. That proves the Chinese gets easy money, get expat workers and later returns on every single Yen. Peace.

Reference:

Dollar, David; Mugyenyi, Akura & Ntungire, Nicole – ‘How can Uganda benefit from China’s economic rise?’ (August 2017) – International Growth Centre Uganda & Bank of Uganda

Uganda: MP Ruhunda – Name the Powerful Officials implicated in Snatching Compensations Money (Audio)

Ugandan finances are struggling and the evidence of the recent acts are showing it…

“We are struggling, the situation is not as easy, but we are not desperate and the situation is under control. For us [government] we are ready to listen and to learn” (…) “The economy is not receding, the disposable income for drinking may not be there but we are not in recession” (…) “To avoid having arrears, we have to budget appropriately and the money budgeted for has to be absorbed” said Finance Minister Matia Kasajja earlier today (Oketch, 2016).

Nakumatt Holdings is apparently struggling as evident today of their Corporate Statement, that they have to even state it to the Nation, even after the takeover of Shoprite Supermarket Limited; they are still not financial stable. This news is coming days after the Crane Bank got into Administration by the Bank of Uganda (BoU). That after the bank tried to subdue the public together with the BoU in September, telling that the Bank we’re not looking for new owners. This is happening while the troubling times for Cairo International Bank and United Bank of Africa (UBA) Uganda… this is known as the Prof. Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile of BoU said they we’re under notice.

Just as this is known in March 2016 the Exim Bank Uganda, that is a subsidiary of the Exim Bank of Tanzania. That bank took over Imperial Bank of Uganda and also Imperial Bank of Kenya. This is banks licenced by the BoU.  So there have already been issues for the banks in Uganda, just more silent movement as the Investors of Exim Bank wanted it to die down.

Cancelled funding from Exim Bank:     

“The major funder of Karuma and Isimba dams has withheld money for the country’s two biggest hydro-power projects until the legal disputes in Ugandan courts about the two ventures are resolved. The Export-Import Bank of China has written to Uganda’s Ministry of Finance, asking the Secretary to the Treasury, Mr Keith Muhakanizi, to explain why the ministry submitted to them documents of due diligence on the two dams and confirming the tendering process had been properly concluded yet the power projects are now a subject of litigation in court” (…) “Mr Muhakanizi was in State House yesterday for a meeting with President Museveni, but after consulting him, Ministry of finance spokesperson Jim Mugunga said: “It is true that the Export Import Bank of China like any other responsible party, expressed concern about the court case by a concerned Ugandan citizen which listed the bank among defendants. The Government of Uganda, through the Attorney General, secured a court order dismissing the case against the Exim Bank. The bank, therefore, is no longer party to the suit and the PSST Mr Keith Muhakanizi this week communicated the same to the bank.” (…) “Mr YuMeng expressed concerns that the outcome of the case in question would affect the commercial contracts related to Karuma Hydropower Dam and Associated Transmission Lines Works and Sub Stations Project, the 183MW Isimba Hydropower Project and the Isimba-Bujagali Interconnection project under Preferential Buyer Credit facility” (Mugerwa, 2016).

This is new that the Exim Bank is answering with postponing the building of the dam. Something that is the Markie and big Infrastructure projects that the Movement needs to shine a light into the dim situation of the Government. Certainly this answer from them could not be anticipated by President Museveni and his friend in the State House.

This is not the first blow this year as Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA) has been under fire all year ever since first response from World Bank on the 8^th January 2016:

“Following the cancellation on December 21, 2015 of the World Bank-supported Uganda Transport Sector Development Project, overseen by the Uganda National Roads Authority (UNRA), the World Bank has suspended the disbursement of funds for civil works in two other projects in Uganda. Those projects, overseen by the UNRA, are the North Eastern Road-Corridor Asset Management Project and the Albertine Region Sustainable Development Project which are suspended pending a review and strengthening of the capacity of UNRA to adhere to the required  environmental and social standards” (World Bank, 08.01.2016).

If you though it wasn’t demeaning enough the World Bank continued later in the year with this statement: “UGANDA, September 13, 2016 –The World Bank Group took a decision to withhold new lending to Uganda effective August 22, 2016 while reviewing the country’s portfolio in consultation with the Government of Uganda.  We continue to actively work with the Ugandan authorities to address the outstanding performance issues in the portfolio, including delays in project effectiveness, weaknesses in safeguards monitoring and enforcement, and low disbursement” (World Bank, 13.09.2016).

This is now evident that they used all the months from December 2015 to September 2016, that means the suspended funds for the projects been delayed for 10 months already, which is a close to year. Certainly that must hurt the UNRA and Government of Uganda really, really hard. The World Bank has because of this made the UNRA change how their work, as the Director and staff has sacked at a point. Now in October the agreement made between UNRA on behalf of GoU has been looked over and seen that some has been fraudulent and not made with due-diligence.

And your know there is issues in the finance market when even the states own National Social Security Fund (NSSF) have to explain where they invests their funds after social media spreads rumours of buying a mall in Nigeria and borrowing heavy funds from the Banking Sector of Uganda. This is happening as there 3 banks under fire and struggling already and if you forgotten they are Crane, Cairo International and United Bank of Africa. So the citizens and costumers of Uganda are already worried, they have been there before with the Greenland Bank and other who has lost confidence and gotten into receivership.

Yesterday even the IMF has answered the financial issues of the republic under the Movement:

“The mission notes the difficult environment for fiscal policy in FY15/16. While revenue collection increased as a share of GDP, it fell short of program expectations, reflecting lower than projected nominal GDP growth. At the same time, current spending was higher than anticipated. Taken together, the overall deficit target was missed by 0.4 percent of GDP, and the government partly relied on BoU advances for its financing needs. The execution of externally financed projects lagged behind target” (…) “the financial sector remains well capitalized, though non-performing loans have edged up. This has prompted a tightening of lending standards and a slowdown in credit to the private sector. The third largest domestic bank had become undercapitalized, and the BoU appropriately took over its management to protect deposits and safeguard financial sector stability. As a next step, the financial position of the bank needs to be established, and BoU will look for a strategic investor” (IMF, 2016).

If you see all of this and wonder how can this be, that one government has all of this just months after a General Election, than you know something isn’t as it supposed to be. The Government of Uganda are not running a steady ship when a bank is trailing, 3^rd biggest commercial in the nation by 19^th October into Administration, Cairo and UBA under the watch-list of the BoU; World Bank suspending loans for the Infrastructure Projects that is needed. While the BoU are fixing some financial stability it is not helped by the giving ways of the President Museveni and his dropping funds like a Walking ATM.

“Prof Joe Oloka Onyango said every crisis in this country is being solved by way of brown envelopes, a scenario he described as being sad and far below the rule of law in the country” (…) “In early 1980s, when this country was under the leadership of Godfrey Binaisa Lukongwa, State House was like a market place. Today, State House has been converted into an ATM,” he said amid cheers” (Wesaka & Adengo, 2016).

So for the once that do forget, the ATM Museveni is the cause of the issues that are now; this is his fiscal responsibility and Monetary Policies that made this happen. This is the reactions to the overdue and overspending of the Presidential Campaigns. These reactions should also lead to higher Inflations that it has done before after the elections. Therefore the Finance Minister Kasajja and Executive director Tumusiime-Mutebile have made some progress from previous elections in the Republic. Though the aftermath is now vivid for the citizens who are costumers at Cairo, UBA and Crane… there visible proof and the evidence are in the reaction of the Campaigning as the fraudulent and maladministration of the Banking Sector. This comes into mind as the State House had this message after February:

“As parliament’s budget committee tussled with an avalanche of supplementary budget requests late last week, which totalled Shs 1.04 trillion, some officials confessed that they emptied their initial budget allocations in order to sustain President Museveni’s campaign expenditure. State House comptroller, Lucy Nakyobe, whose office tabled a supplementary budget request of Shs 49.7 billion, told the parliamentary budget committee on April 1 that her coffers were depleted by the so many inland travels of President Museveni, who addressed four campaign rallies daily on average for the campaign period” (Namuloki & Oluka, 2016).

So the debt has to repay and taken from somewhere as the Central-Government, Banks and Multi-National Organizations are stepping off from the Ugandan Government, the Movement are running in circles taking care of their own while the citizens is now trailing and falling off. That is why businesses are giving in.

Just as people might have forgotten the paying of businesses connected to the family and General Salim Selah: “Prominent businesses in the country might soon run out of business if a decision that could see the use of Shs1.3 trillion taxpayers’ money to bailout companies in distress is not taken in their favour” (…) “Talking to Daily Monitor on condition of anonymity, a source privy to the talks revealed that “there is concern that bailing out companies without correcting the economic situation in the country will not resolve the problem.” (…) “The economy is not growing fast enough to generate activity for these companies to perform at full capacity. A bailout will not deal with the core problem. That is the argument being fronted by several government technocrats against the bailout,” the source said” (Muhumuza & Adengo, 2016).

So with this in mind, there are some sound imbalance about the bailouts months before one of the great banks put into Administration, NSSF has to answer for Social Media outbursts, two more Banks on a stroll, State House being broke months ago, UNRA projects suspended by the World Bank, IMF are seeing that infrastructure projects are lagging behind, Exim Bank suspended pay to the two dam projects and the strange bailout. There are too many evidence of lacking financial sound practises…  Even Nakumatt the Supermarket are having troubles. There just more pawns on the set ready to move, but how they fall only the kings knows; because the Kings stay King. Peace.

Reference:

IMF Communication Department – ‘IMF Staff Concludes Review Mission to Uganda’ (26.10.2016) link: http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/10/26/PR16462-Uganda-IMF-Staff-Completes-Review-Mission

Mugerwa, Yasiin – ‘Chinese bank holds back Karuma funds’ (27.10.2016) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Chinese-bank-holds-back-Karuma-funds/688334-3431376-qxr194/index.html

Muhumuza, Keith & Adengo, Jonathan – ‘FULL LIST: 65 loan-stressed firms line up for Shs1 trillion taxpayer bailout’ (22.07.2016) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/65-loan-stressed-firms-line-up-for-Shs1-trillion-tax/688322-3305166-d6h193/index.html

Namuloki, Josephine & Oluka, Benon Herbert – ‘State House broke after spending on Museveni campaign’ (09.04.2016) link: http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/43556-state-house-broke-after-spending-on-museveni-campaign

Oketch, Martin Luther – ‘Economy is struggling – Minister Kasaija’ (27.10.2016) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Economy-is-struggling—Minister-Kasaija/688334-3432534-t8dv3c/index.html

Wesaka, Anthony & Adengo, Jonathan – ‘State House turning into ATM, says Mak don’ (11.10.2016) Link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/State-House—ATM–Mak-don-/688334-3411968-1155d8t/index.html

Exim Bank (Uganda) Limited takes over Imperial Bank (Uganda) Limited (07.03.2016)