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Archive for the tag “European Research Group”

Brexit: Prime Minister Boris Johnson letter to President Donald Tusk (28.10.2019)

Brexit delayed again: Groundhog Day number 3

Phil Connors: “It’s the same thing every day, Clean up your room, stand up straight, pick up your feet, take it like a man, be nice to your sister, don’t mix beer and wine ever, Oh yeah, don’t drive on the railroad tracks” (Groundhog Day, 1993).

Well, we are at it again. The United Kingdom revoked their membership on the 29th March 2017 and within a two year period plan to leave the European Union. However, the Brexit day of 29th March didn’t happen.

On March 20th 2019, the UK government asked for an extension. Since the Tories and Parliament couldn’t agree on the terms of the exit. Neither, the statutes configuring the border question in Northern Ireland. That’s why the EU accepted another extension until 30th June 2019.

Later in April, the EU and EU Council accepted that the extension could last until 31st October 2019. Which was the day set to start the transition period of leaving. But by the knowledge today. The change of Prime Minister and new government. They have been able to bottle another amended withdrawal agreement and lost more in Parliament than ever before.

Therefore, on the 28th October, the EU and the EU Council have accepted another extension to give the Tories and UK time to reconfigure things. They have now the date of 31st January 2020.

That means the UK have bottled and misused the time since 29th March 2017 and is close to three years in limbo. Where three Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have all failed the task. They have all been shambolic, in ways unbelievable to think off before this. They have lost majority parliament, they have lost one general election and pushing the referendum still. Without considering another referendum.

It is okay to elect new parliament, new MPs and a new cabinet, but not fine and dandy to check if people really want to leave. Now that the public actually knows a bit of the cost, knows the trade-offs and the loss of relevance across the British Channel. The Irish is more powerful, than the Brits. That must hurt the pride of London and silence Merry Poppins.

This is all magical, the universe doesn’t seem in sync if it is not a few headlines on Brexit. We need some more time to crunch the inevitable end of it. The Tories seems boggled and lost. If and buts will be more off and certainly, Boris might be laying in a ditch, but prefer that’s his not dead. We don’t need more hurt than the process is already is.

The government, the parliament and the EU haven’t been capable to proceed to find the remedy. The cause of the leaving became much harder, than the Brexiteers ever thought. The remainers are seeing the pain, but don’t know how to end the suffering. The EU is just looking at the UK and how torn it is.

The hardliners, the ones whose govern lost another specific date. The Brexit Day of 31st October left the building, just like the 29th March 2019 did too. The 30th June went missing too and now the new final date 31st January 2020. It is a farce, a mockery and failure from the get-go.

There is no winners here, only loosers and the biggest loser is the ones in power, who cannot succeed. The loss is the citizens and the ones who has to pay for all of this. Because, the entitlement and extravagant show is a flair without any substance. The EU and UK could have known this would cost. The Tories should known before leaving, that it would loose a lot and also pay for leaving. But they didn’t want the truth, but instead swim in lies.

Now, we are back at another groundhog day. Theresa May went through this and now Boris Johnson does too. They are showing the same buyer’s remorse, but no one want to buy their knock-off product, which they are selling. Both their Withdrawal Agreements and Withdrawal Act’s sucks. Nobody wins, and everyone lose. Who wants to bet on that? No one wants too.

It is just like the Tories, Whitehall and Downing Street No. 10 doesn’t know. Peace.

Brexit: Written evidence Memorandum from the Home Office (PFB0018) – (24.10.2019)

Brexit: Lib-Dem leader Jo Swinson MP letter to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (24.10.2019)

Brexit: Boris couldn’t force his law on the Commons!

Well, for the first time in the reign of Prime Minister Boris Johnson he got the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (Bill) through the second reading. However, later in the evening he lost on the program motion of the law. Meaning the government time-table to push the laws through the Commons, Lords and Royal Assent. Therefore, Boris lost again tonight after a minor victory.

The MPs, the acts of Parliament shows that they want proper scrutiny and assessment of the new Withdrawal Bill, which the government just released last night. Dozens of documents of amendments and costs of the bill. Which is all the job of the Parliament and their role as representatives. They are not there to sign-off to any idea the Cabinet nor the PM has. If it sounds bad, they can “naye” or amend it to make it righteous.

The PM lost the 31st October 2019. The Bill will not be pushed or finished by then. The HM Government have to hope for a helpful Brussels to buy more time. Because, the Tories, the PM has used his cards and empty gambles without winning. Tried to be a genius, but instead going bonkers.

This man has already shown disregard for the Commons and continues to do so. Because a law like this is about the watershed moment of withdrawing from the EU. Not just what sort of labels that should be on a pack of crisps. No, this is the legal binding changes, the trade-offs and further negotiations with the EU.

Therefore, the Tories should have given the Commons more time to digest the revised Withdrawal Agreement and the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. However, it gave it none and thought it would care to give way. The same house that has voted down the previous one THREE Times. It is like the PM cannot learn or know the hiccups of the past.

The arrogance of doing this today and thinking it would work. His dislodging the agreement and the bill at one point. Unless, his trying to configure it through the house, amendment by amendment, statute after statute. Will Boris do that or will he try to push it through another time before the 31st October?

Johnson is really showing his losing side. Boris should have thought this one out, but by proroguing the Parliament he lost valuable time for his due-date. However, that seems to forged and faked for his own image.

We know at one point this is supposed to end, but now its up to the mercy of Brussels. Something, that is funny considering how Brexiteers cannot stomach this and Remainers want a new referendum. Some speculate in a General Election, but who knows at this point. What we are seeing a government losing on their important votes.

Boris is not able to get a full house. His not able to succeed. Not that he wants to see that. That destroys his mind. It must be shattering for him. Not that I feel sorry for him, because he has made this bed and has to sleep in it.

Boris cannot fix Brexit, it will destroy him, just like it did Cameron and May. His next in line. He just don’t know it yet. Peace.

Brexit: A Shoddy Impact Assessment of the new Withdrawal Agreement Bill…

This was really inspired and not well thought out of, the Department of Exiting the European Union and the rest of the Tories. Really didn’t care much for the estimates of the costs, nor the consequences in concerns of their amended Bill to Parliament. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to just pursuit the ending without doing the proper work. This is shoddy, disrespectful work, which he wanted to be over within 3 days or so. Within the parameter of when he wanted to suspend the Parliament.

So, his acts and his vision is blurry, as the whole law and amendments of it. Is substantial and needs time to be addressed properly, that is if, the Brexit process and withdrawal of membership has consequences. Which it does, but apparently it is more important to leave, than to know why your leaving.

I have today looked through the Impact Assessment Report on the bill, which in itself is a sad report. A disgraceful attempt of justification and proving the possible outcomes of the withdrawal. Apparently, that didn’t matter, because my quotes are very striking. Take a look!

There could be costs to business associated with the arrangements in the Northern Ireland/Ireland Protocol. But these are inherently uncertain in their nature and intensity, as such, these costs have not been quantified” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

Customs:

Businesses in Great Britain and Northern Ireland may face familiarisation costs in adapting to the new customs processes, such as the requirements for customs declarations, in particular if they have not undertaken such processes before” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

This isn’t rocket science and will cost both the state and the businesses. It will cost both time and money, to fill forms and secure the movement accordingly to the regulations on both sides of the customs.

VAT:

Northern Ireland will be required to align with certain EU VAT and excise rules. VAT collected in Northern Ireland will be retained by the UK. Specific practical arrangements will be the subject of discussions within the Joint Committee, and it is not therefore possible to assess costs or benefits at this stage” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

The taxation on goods will be an issue and how its issued. This will add prices possibly on the consumer and also on the businesses. But the HM Government don’t know to what extent and how to operate. That is clearly a smooth transition.

Tariffs:

No tariffs will be paid on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland unless they are deemed to be at risk of entering the EU. The appropriate UK tariff will be paid on goods moving from outside the UK or EU to Northern Ireland unless they are deemed to be at risk of entering the EU. The Joint Committee will agree the criteria to be used in determining whether goods are not considered to be at risk of entering the EU” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

So, there will certain cost of moving goods into the EU as per the tariffs stipulated by the Joint Committee. This means, the UK-EU on accord will find the fitted prices on movement of goods form the UK into EU. That means, the goods moving across the borders will cost more, than today, as there is no-tariff on lots of products crossing the borders at this very moment.

Agri-Foods from GB to NI:

Agri-food goods moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland would need to be notified to the relevant authorities before entering Northern Ireland and would be subject to checks including identity, documentary and physical checks by UK authorities as required by the relevant EU rules. These processes would introduce additional costs, both from one-offfamiliarisation and ongoing compliance, to businesses compared to current arrangements” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

This will surely cost and make it more time consuming. Not making it easy or smooth either. Surely, all of this is hardening the trade of this to NI.

Manufactured goods from GB to NI:

To ensure regulatory compliance, businesses in Great Britain selling to Northern Ireland may incur additional costs from product testing and corresponding administrative processes. The nature of the costs will depend on the product-specific requirements in EU law and on a business’s current approach to meeting these requirements. These costs may be passed through to businesses in Northern Ireland” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

Here the costs will be put on the consumer in Northern Ireland for the goods coming from Great Britain. The manufactured goods will not be cheaper, but more time consuming to get and has to follow other protocols, than the ones coming from Ireland/EU. This means for the NI it will be more profitable to get EU goods, than GB goods, because of the cost. That is simple calculation.

We can all see, that the Withdrawal Agreement and new legal text makes business, movement of goods and borders to the Northern Ireland more harder. That without swimming into the legal text nor the statutes of the Withdrawal Agreement. Because, this is just the mere chip-shape of the impact assessment of it all.

The whole thing is lazy and that makes me grim. Because, this shows the people releasing it. Didn’t do their job and show the real estimates nor the possible costs of doing business. Only that it might cost more, which it most likely will do, because you have more things to do before doing business. Peace.

Reference:

European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill – Impact Assessment, 21.10.2019

Brexit: Opposition Chief Whip Nicholas Brown MP letter to Chief Whip Mark Spencer MP (22.10.2019)

Brexit: Chancellor Sajid David letter to Cathrine McKinnell MP – EU Exit Economic Analysis (21.10.2019)

Brexit: First Ministers of Scotland and Wales letter to President Donald Tusk (21.10.2019)

Brexit: Prime Minister Boris Johnson 2 letters sent to President Donald Tusk (19.10.2018)

First letter:

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