Opinion: Besigye doesn’t need dialogue with Museveni!

Besigye 23.02.2016 Kasangati

Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.

That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.

Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.

So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.

A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.

M7 Guards Inaguration 2016

Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.

The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!

So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.

So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.

Zimbabwe: United Bulawayo Hospitals – “Re: Industrial Action by Junior Doctors” (20.02.2017)

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Embassy of Burundi in Tanzania: “Request the Government of Tanzania to arrest those wanted Burundians who are now in Arusha for Inter Burundi Dialouge” (17.02.2017)

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#ThisFlag: “Back to the issues. The dreams of our youths have been stolen and we need to salvage those dreams somehow” (Footage)

Burundi: Cour Penale International les Avocats du Collectif des Victimes envolent leur dossier de pieces a la Cour Penale Internationale (17.02.2017)

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Government of Uganda Position on Burundian Refugees (17.02.2017)

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Footage: Evan Mawarire update from Courts earlier today (17.02.2017)

“Update from the courts earlier today. Matter has been postponed to March 16 because the state was not ready. Our resolve remains steady in uniting the citizens of Zimbabwe as we prepare for the coming season of change. #ThisFlag” (Evan Mawarire, 17.02.2017)

Burundi: Communique de Presse concernant les operations de World Vision International/Burundi dans la province de Karusi (15.02.2017)

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Reserve Bank Gov. Mangudya says the economy of Zimbabwe is an ‘albatross’!

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The Governor Dr. J.P. Mangudya Zimbabwean Reserve Bank writes a special piece on the Zimbabwean economy, not as bleak as the one Finance Minister P.A. Chinamasa wrote in mid-year report of 2016. The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), of January of 2017, as still evident of the issues in the Zimbabwean economy. With the knowledge of the debt-burden that has arisen together with the suspended international loans, the state funds has funds dwindled. Also, the monetary and fiscal prudence has been weakening as told by the governor of the Reserve Bank. The Governor even called the Zimbabwean Economy an “albatross”, the rest of it says it all.

Zimbabwean economy needs to catch up:

“The positive spin-offs from the recent removal of Zimbabwe from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remedial measures, following successful clearance of its arrears to the Fund in October 2016, are also expected to go a long way in reducing Zimbabwe’s country risk, thus attracting the much needed foreign investment. Completion of the clearance of external debt arrears to the rest of the international financial institutions – African Development Bank (AfDB), World Bank and European Investment Bank (EIB) – is expected to further reduce the country’s debt burden that continues to be an albatross on Zimbabwe’s access to foreign finance for the past 16 years now at a time when other emerging markets have been making tremendous strides in their economic transformation. As a consequence, Zimbabwe has lagged behind and needs to catch up with its peers” (Mangudya, P: 6-7, 2017).

Reactions to drought:

“In 2016, food imports (maize and wheat), however, surged owing to the El Nino induced drought that destroyed crops in the Southern African region, including Zimbabwe. Continued reliance on imports of finished goods is unsustainable as it undermines current efforts to resuscitate domestic industrial production, leading to significant trade and current account deficits” (Mangudya, P: 15, 2017).

Other key development:

“Driven by merchandise trade developments, the current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed down by about 15.5%, from a deficit of US$1,519.4 million in 2015, to a deficit of US$1,283.9 million in 2016, partly on account of the projected decline in the import bill. Remittances, which are also a major source of import financing declined by 17.9% in 2016, from US$1,917.7 million received in 2015 to US$1,574.0 million in 2016. Of the total amount received in 2016, US$779.0 million reflects remittances from the Diaspora while remittances from International Organizations (NGOs) amounted to US$795.0 million” (Mangudya, P: 16, 2017).

Problematic government loans:

“Reflecting developments on both the current and capital account, the overall balance of payments position is estimated to have deteriorated from a deficit of US$25.8 million in 2015 to a deficit of US$186.4 million in 2016. This phenomenon reflects an unsustainable economic situation of funding capital projects using loans as opposed to equity. The danger with this scenario is that debt would become unsustainable as exports are mortgaged towards debt repayments” (Mangudya, P: 19-20, 2017).

Unbalanced economy:

“The fact that the 14.4% of the country’s foreign receipts handled by RBZ for redistribution into the market seems to have more impact in the economy is a sign of market failure. The Bank shall quickly move to redress this market failure through measures that compel banks to adhere to the import priority list and to mitigate against institutional indiscipline such as the use of more foreign exchange for personal card and DSTV transactions ahead of raw materials to produce cooking oil, for example. Financial institutions should do some soul searching and rethink on how they add value to the economy under the New Normal” (Mangudya, P: 67, 2017).

Bond- Notes introduction:

“The Bank is encouraged by the manner in which the nation embraced bond notes. The Bank has to date issued $94 million of bond notes into the market against an aggregate value of the export incentive of $107 million. Whilst the circulation of the bond notes represented by levels of deposits and withdrawals is also encouraging, the Bank is putting in place a redistributable measure that mitigates against skewed concentration of bond notes within the banking sector by limiting the maximum amount of bond notes that each bank should hold at any given point in time in relation to its level and type of transactions. This measure is necessary to ensure that bonds notes are distributed proportionately according to the customer base or customer profile of each banking institution” (…) “The Bank is directing financial institutions to strictly observe the policy to deposit bond notes into the US$ accounts without requesting the banking public to differentiate between bond notes and US$ cash. This measure is essential to ensure that bond notes continue to trade at parity with the US$ and to reflect the fact that bond notes are supported by the US$200 million offshore facility to support the demand for foreign exchange attributable to bond notes” (Mangudya, P: 67-68, 2017).

When you see this numbers alone, there would be more meat in the report that says lots of the downfalls of the economy. The Governor said the fiscal issues and debt, together with the lacking of imports and exports, the short and less infused funds. With that in mind, instead of pounding on the troubled economy, we should rather enjoy a moment of explanation of why albatross is so dire:

“something or someone you want to be free from because that thing or person is causing you problems” (Cambridge Dictionary) and this one too: “a continuing problem that makes it difficult or impossible to do or achieve something” (Merriam Webster Dictionary). So the Albatross for the Zanu-PF is the economy, even as they eat of it and deplete it. However, the turbulence and insecurity isn’t over as the trust in the Bond-Notes or the other factors as the New Normal isn’t giving. Peace.

Reference:

Dr. J.P. Mangudya – ‘“Stimulating Economic Growth and Bolstering Confidence”’ – Monetary Policy Statement, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)

Burundi: Communique du Gouvernement sur le Dialogue InterBurundais prevu a Arusha du 16au18 Feverier 2017 (15.02.2017)

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