
Today is the 59th Day of the Russian-Belorussian invasion of Ukraine. As the use of vile forces continues. The Russians continues to target multiple fronts and trying to invade more territory by all means. There is no stop in the warfare and there reports of deployments of about 20,000 Russian mercenaries from Syria, Libya and wherever who would conscript to the conflict. Therefore, there is nothing, which Kremlin and Duma will not do to stop the Ukrainian forces from defending it’s homeland.
What is striking is that the blitzkrieg of Moscow didn’t work. The quick-fix and stationing troops, mechanical divisions and having military exercises around the Ukrainian border didn’t help either. Since, the Russian moral and lack of progress is evident. The brutality, the looting and the massacres isn’t helping them either and neither is it giving any trusts in the invading forces as a human or caring new ruler. No, it is just an epitome of tyranny and total destruction with no concern of the future.
There is talks of another Budapest Memorandum, the sort of which Boris Yeltsin, John Mayor, Bill Clinton and Leonid Kuchma signed in December 1994, the agreement of sovereignty and territorial integrity as a pre-condition to not continue have nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The price of doing that we are seeing today. As the mightier neighbour is invading it and doing so on it’s own merit. While it has violated this agreement on the regular since 2014. With not only annexation of Crimea, but also arming separatists in Donbas. Which is where the “special operation” is currently having the largest offensive of late.
With that in mind… here is two crucial articles of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994:
“1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” (Budapest Memorandum – Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994, 1994).
“2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations” (Budapest Memorandum – Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Budapest, 5 December 1994, 1994).
So, when I read that there are talks of creating another Budapest Memorandum in 2022. I’m hesitant and credibly concerned. Not because, I don’t believe Ukraine, United Kingdom or United States of America will not adhere to an agreement, but that Russian Federation will tear it apart and find new excuses to execute the current regimes ideas in Kremlin.
That’s why a Budapest Memorandum 2.0 will not be useful, but be a nice publicity stunt and a “diplomatic victory” but only for a short amount of time. If the articles are not well crafted and stipulated extended guarantees or safety measures for Ukraine. Russians will violate it like they did to the 1994 memorandum. There will be no different from today, because the Russians are currently not concerned about the first or second article.
Secondly, the ones that says Ukraine violated the Minsk Agreement of 2015. While I would state one key aspect of that in concern to Donbas. The Russians has supported Russian separatists for years in Donbas. One key article, which the Russians has violated is this:
“Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups” (Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements, 12.02.2015).
And we know perfectly well that this was violated on the regular for years. Why do I state this now as there is talks of a second Budapest Memorandum to safeguard Ukraine. Well, when they could not adhere to either of these agreements. Why should we believe that the Russians will follow a new one or respect that even?
We know the current regime in Moscow doesn’t speak or have a rhetoric of taking into account the statehood or the leadership of Kyiv. That’s why we should have doubts that any sincerity in their resolutions or ideals of an agreement. I’m hesitant with that, because they rather get puppets in power and have someone they can control in Kyiv. That’s what Moscow wants and this is deliberate.
So, if the ones who was participating in the Budapest memorandum works for a second one. It should be iron-clad and no loopholes for Moscow to return with violence. There should be no short-cut or anything. Because, that will most likely be vetoed or not accepted by Moscow. Since they want to have the freedom to take away the liberty and sovereignty of Ukraine. That’s why I have little faith and don’t trust the Russians in this regard.
I would have had more faith, if they had adhered to either of these agreements mentioned, but they have breached them both on various of counts. Not only on arming separatists in Donbas. While they did breach the sovereignty and territory of Ukraine in 2014 and continuing doing so in Donbas. Therefore, why should the world and nations work on a diplomatic missions, which is in the end worthless. When we know Kremlin and the Duma will not follow or even try to respect any agreement in concern to Ukraine. Peace.