
With the invasion in November 2020, there was a tripartite alliance, which consisted of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) and Amhara Para-military Group “Fano”. That para-military group is now haunting the Federal Government and everyone else.
Fano should have been a worry from the onset, as the Amhara regional state was getting militarised and getting heavily invested in the destruction, looting and genocidal affairs in Tigray region. That should have been a red-flag and a warning to Addis Ababa. However, Abiy and Afewerki was happy to see the actions and the mischief of Fano in Tigray. They even cheered them on and supported their endeavour.
Now in 2023 things has changed. The power-dynamics are shifting and the pendulum is swinging against Amhara. They are already prepared and have been supported by the state. The Amhara regional state has boosted the Fano para-military group extensively and certainly ensured it with much recruits. The nationalism and extremist leaders who promotes the Amhara’s chauvinism will not stop either. They are willing to do die for the land they have annexed in Tigray and they have no issues going to war against its own federal government doing so.
That’s the proof these days. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali only creates more conflict and bloodshed. If there isn’t plight or suffering, somehow the PM will deliver it to your doorstep. A warlord who thrives in war. He already has the Amhara Popular Front (APF) to fight there as well. Now the Fano is totally rebelling against the state, which they used to serve diligently.
The ENDF has a massive load and it’s across the spectrum. They are not silencing the guns but having several of internal conflicts at once. While they haven’t been able to honour or trying to follow up on the Pretoria Agreement in concern to leaving the territories of Tigray. That’s what is also triggering the Fano and APF. They are willing to fight over these and will also undermine own regional state doing so. Meaning the war will persist and it will cost more lives.
Abiy is now having an outright civil-war with a former ally. He has to use his army and all allies to ensure the end of Fano or the APF. There are elements of Fano within the APF and also former Regional Special Forces, which was disbanded recently. Therefore, there is well trained soldiers and militia men who is fighting against the state. They are doing so on their own turf and neighbourhoods. That’s why it won’t be easy. The APF and Fano could possibly do this all for their “independence” and sovereignty, as they feel violated by the consolidation of power from Abiy. Which was the reason for the war in Tigray in the first place. So, it took some time for Amhara to catch up with Abiy’s endgame.
The Fano-APF is a danger that the ENDF has to commit too. The militia is now outright taking over strategic places in the Amhara region. That must hurt the pride of both the leadership of Bahir Dar and Addis Ababa. They are losing control of zones and woredas, which makes it harder for the regional state to hold control over. Meaning these are upright areas where Fano-APF resides now and the ENDF has to return.
What is striking is how an ally has turned into an enemy so quickly. It didn’t take long and now the former ally is upright the worst enemy he can have. The Fano-APF isn’t just a theoretical threat, but one acting openly and they are welcomed in the places they conquer too. That should be of great concern to Addis Ababa. As they are not as favoured, as they think they are and within the Amhara Regional State. There are several who supports and believes in the gospel of these para-military groups. They believe and have faith in them. That is what is extremely dangerous here and that’s what the Prosperity Party allowed to happen. As they not only supported, but defended the Fano. They used the services of Fano and now it comes back to bite them. Peace.















