Communiqué of the Consultative Meeting of IGAD Member States on the Current Drought Situation in the Region (31.03.2017)

Ethiopian State of Emergency continues!

As of 29. March 2017 the continued State of Emergency from 2016 continues, as the oppression and military enterprise into Amhara and Oromia continues. The speed of this proves the neglect and little care for the civilians, as the military, Agazi squad and other battalions has been stationed in the provinces that clearly are tired of the rulers and their regime in Addis Ababa.

As stated in Parliament in Addis on the 29th March:

“Ethiopia’s House of Peoples’ Representatives voted to extend the State of Emergency by four months on Wednesday (March 29), passing a bill entitled “State of Emergency Proclamation for the Maintenance of Public Peace and Security Renewal” (…) “This extends the proclamation decreed in October last year. The Minister of Defense and Secretary of the Command Post responsible for enforcing the State of Emergency, Siraj Fegessa, told Parliament that the Command Post, chaired by Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn, wanted to see the emergency decree extended to reinforce “the peace and stability which has been gained since Parliament declared the State of the Emergency” (…) “The State of Emergency has been amended twice since October, with the lifting of the curfews imposed on areas close to industrial sites and major development projects. More recently, it has also ended the arrest of suspects without court warrants, and lifted travel restrictions for diplomats” (…) “The vote this week follows the Prime Minister’s statement to Parliament two weeks ago that “the majority of people surveyed by the government wanted to see the emergency law extended.” (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ethiopia, 31.03.2017).

So even if this is a softer ban and less limiting of the public will and public opinion, still the clear picture is that the dissidents of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), will certainly get into arrests, detained or even taken away. The amount of citizens arrested during the period has amounted to 20,000 by some estimation. That is the size of decent town put into camps to silence their disobedient selves.

Good that somebody reacts to the measure:

“The Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Ethiopia (CAHDE) is considering to mount a legal challenge against the legality of the state of emergency and its extension before the African Commission on Human and Peoples Rights and other relevant international human rights forums” (…) “We believe that the emergency did not meet the requirements of Ethiopian law and applicable international legal standards. Even if one assumes that there were reasonable grounds to believe that exceptional measures were necessary to respond to the ‘threat’ represented by the protests, the continued enforcement and extension of emergency measures is totally unjustified and disproportionate to the exigencies of the circumstances” (CAHDE, 31.03.2017).

So even Human rights observers and NGOs are reacting to the measure made by the Central Government to silence the provinces and regions who are in turmoil, where the army has used force and the police has rounded up locals. Where the cellphone coverage, internet that has been for long time disconnected by the regime and the other needed infrastructure has dwindled away. This is happening while the citizens are scrambling to survive in the efforts of the government to destroy their livelihoods and will to stand-up against them. If the government we’re democratic than they would accept that Amhara and Oromia we’re addressing the misgivings and the maladministration of the regions, while trying to negotiate and even give way to civilians. Instead, they are sending weapons, soldiers and turning of the electricity, and phone-lines. Such noble creatures in the EPRDF.

However, we do know now that the EPRDF now fears demonstrations and dissidents so much that would kill their own, create lack of food and use the extended drought to see who will be loyal subjects, as the oppression and extended security operation inside the regions has not stopped and doesn’t seem to have an idea of when to stop. The reality is that the false flag of wishful peace, when they themselves pick up the guns or the bracelets to detain or kill fellow citizens. That is the end game of the Ethiopian tragedy, where to many lives are lost for wanting a government that cares about more than their own pockets. As seen repeatedly, that they do not care and surely the citizens wants someone govern with accountability and transparency in Amhara and Oromia. That is surely not happening now! Peace.

IGAD: Nairobi Declaration on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia (25.03.2017)

 

Leaked U.S. Concept Note describes the wished changes in the UN Peacekeeping Operation Missions!

The United States delegation to the United Nations have leaked a document on planned discussion for the United Nations Security Council that are to be commenced in next month (April 2017). These notes are clearly setting the course and wish for the goals and ambition of the discussion in the UNSC. This concept note is supposed to be a Peacekeeping Operation Review. That would lead to certain decisions by the Member States and the Council Members.

The reason why the United States delegation to the UNSC about the Peacekeeping operation:

As of January 31, 2017, there were 99,034 uniformed personnel – including 85,408 troops and 12,786 police – serving in the 16 peacekeeping operations overseen by the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, with an approved budget of $7.87 billion. UN peacekeeping is a vital aspect of the organization. However, a significant number of PKOs have mandates conceived years – in some cases decades – ago that are no longer supported by a political environment conducive to achieving the Council’s aims. It is crucial that missions contribute to increased safety and security, but they can also create a subsidized and unsteady peace that can quickly become a dependency that discourages long-term solutions. The UN becomes trapped in these frozen conflicts and peacekeeping missions that were initially conceived to provide temporary security to allow space for political solutions to take hold instead deploy for years without clear mandates or exit plans”.

Because of the cost, the longevity of the peacekeeping operations as they are creating a vacuum between the government hosts, the peacekeeping mission and the hostile forces. This is a consuming and makes it hard to generate any sort of sustainable peace, as the peacekeepers keeps a buffer and stops the need for a strong foundation of central government and their own security forces. They can always trust on the Blue Helmets to appear when needed and serve the citizens.

The United States has certainly ideas as this is their core idea for the discussion in the UNSC: “We encourage Council Members to consider whether current peacekeeping operations continue to be the best suited mechanisms for meeting the needs of those on the ground and achieving the Council’s political objectives, or if changes are needed”. So the US Mission to the UN wants the Peacekeeping Operations to achieve the political objectives and not be a stalemate operation that keeps the upkeep of unstability and uncertainty in the host nation. That is certainly a noble quest, but with that the UN Peacekeepers need to revise their missions, their mandate and their will of force, as their peacekeeping missions has been done in such diplomatic ways.

The United States delegates outcome of the review:

While no product is envisioned, we encourage the Council to apply the lessons and methods discussed in this meeting to our regular mandate review process to ensure that conditions still justify the missions and that political processes conceivably lead towards realistic, achievable solutions”.

That this is a quest and wishful thinking for the US mission, the United Nation needs votes and make sure the Members would strike agreement on the possible idea of changing the Peacekeeping Operations. The Blue Helmets are clearly on the loosing end of the stick, as their missions are not seen as fruitful, more like a costly operations not creating the effect and stage the peaceful transition in the host nations.

The UNSC and the Members should be hopeful to change the political climate and use the force to create the peace they are to make. If they weren’t peacekeepers than they wouldn’t be an issue, as if they we’re regular army on a territory, they should keep their citizens safe and the borders. The Peacekeepers has a mandate and mission, still they haven’t always been able to comply with that. Also, they have obligations not only to the United Nations, but to the host nations regime. Therefore, if the UNSC wants a bigger mission or extend their mandate, they still have to negotiate with the host nations.

The US Mission and the UNSC have to work on it and it is about time, as the AMISOM, MUNISCO, UNAMID, UNMISS and MINUSMA, who all should need a change of mandate and level of force if they should be properly creating the peace and make way for the central government. Peace.

Statement of IGAD Council of Ministers’ Consultation on the Current Situation in the Region (17.03.2017)

World Bank Group President Calls for Urgent Action on Hunger Crisis (08.03.2017)

WASHINGTON, March 8, 2017—World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim today issued the following statement on the devastating levels of food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen:

“Famine is a stain on our collective conscience. Millions of lives are at risk and more will die if we do not act quickly and decisively.

We at the World Bank Group stand in solidarity with the people now threatened by famine. We are mobilizing an immediate response for Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Our first priority is to work with partners to make sure that families have access to food and water. We are working toward a financial package of more than $1.6 billion to build social protection systems, strengthen community resilience, and maintain service delivery to the most vulnerable. This includes existing operations of over $870 million that will help communities threatened by famine. I am also working with our Board of Directors to secure the approval of new operations amounting to $770 million, funded substantially through IDA’s Crisis Response Window.

The World Bank Group will help respond to the immediate needs of the current famine, but we must recognize that famine will have lasting impacts on people’s health, ability to learn, and earn a living. So we will also continue to work with communities to reclaim their livelihoods and build resilience to future shocks.

We are coordinating closely with the UN and other partners in all areas of our response. We know that resolution to this acute crisis will not be possible without all humanitarian and development actors working together. We call on the international community to respond robustly and quickly to the UN global appeal for resources for the famine.

To prevent crises in the future, we must invest in addressing the root causes and drivers of fragility today and help countries build institutional and societal resilience.”

Background

A famine means that a significant part of the population has no access to basic food, suffers from severe malnutrition, and death from hunger reaches unprecedented levels. Children under five are disproportionately affected. A famine can affect the well-being of a whole generation. Famine was officially declared on February 20 in South Sudan, impacting approximately 100,000 people, and there is a credible risk of other famines in Yemen, Northeast Nigeria, and other countries. Ongoing conflicts and civil insecurity are further intensifying the food insecurity of millions of people across the region, and there is already widespread displacement and other cross-border spillovers. For instance, food insecurity in Somalia and famine in South Sudan are accelerating the flow of refugees into Ethiopia and Uganda. The UN estimates that about 20 million people in Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen are on the “tipping point” of famine. Drought conditions also extend to Uganda and parts of Tanzania. The last famine was declared in 2011 in Somalia during which 260,000 people died.

Ethiopia: La Nina and Indian Ocean Negative Dipole-Induced Drought (13.02.2017)

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Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

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The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

  • Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
  • A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
  • IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
  • Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
  • A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.

Ethiopia: February, the month when activists, politicians and journalists are scheduled for the Federal Court!

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The State of Emergency done by the Central Government in Ethiopia has not died down, as the military and policing of Amhara and Oromo regions are continued from 2016. When the clampdown from the Central Government put in place enormous regulations on activities, sanctioned media stations and radio stations; as well as they have detained opposition leaders and activists behind bars without proper trial. This has been achieved with the military and police officers going in the regions with fierce attitude and silencing the people.

Therefore the newly released court dates in Ethiopia shows that the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) still continuing their oppression towards the ones who are dissenting from their regime.

The EPRDF is taking civil activist Yonathan Tesfaye will be in court for witness hearing on the 6th February in the Federal High Court on the 4th Bench. On the 7th February the Zone9 Bloggers will be in court, one of them is Soleyana Shimeles and five others. They will get a verdict on their Prosecutors appeal. Their appeal will appear in the Federal Supreme Court.

The Authorities is putting Gurmessa Ayano and Bekele Gerba on trial together with other main leaders of Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), which are 22 people who they have charged with some ill-intent of sorts. Their Court hearing will be on the 10th February when the remaining witness hearing. This will happen at the Federal High Court 4th Bench.

On the 14th February it will be a defence hearing in the case of Journalist Getachew Shiferaw, he will appear in front of the Federal High Court and the 4th Bench. On the same day the civil activist Nigist Yirga is in court with 5 more activist as their case are to receive Prosecutors reply to Defendants Preliminary Objections. They will also be courtside in the Federal High Court and the 4th Bench.

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This is only the well-known cases that are in the works of the oppressive behaviour of the Ethiopian government and state apparatus that appears to do what it can to dismantle the CSOs, the media and opposition parties. We can see that the targets this month is the OFC leaders, a journalist and activists are in court, even bloggers who reveal things the press doesn’t consider and fears to write about. Therefore the need for international scrutiny and question the behaviour of the EPRDF is needed. Their violence and oppression cannot continue. This in not justice, this is pure injustice against civilians who just works for fair society and liberty. Peace.  

 

NDM Statement on the UNSC Meeting Pertaining to the Situation in South Sudan (24.01.2017)

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