Ethiopia: Update on COVID-19 in Ethiopia March 22, 2020 (22.03.2020)

International Oromo Lawyers Association: Open letter to the Ethiopian Prime Minster – The Population in Western Oromia Deserves Freedom of Information (20.03.2020)

Ethiopia: Did PM Abiy praise the Derg and their revolutionary “Call of the Motherland”?

With little training, Ethiopians rallied to the ‘mother’s call’ – the mother country cry for protection against the enemy. The Derg government offered a call for a short time and made it by bringing back respect of the country. It is in our history to pay for our country’s sacrifice and sacrifice ourselves for our country. Soon enough the invaders felt the wrath and the blade of Ethiopian heroes who were prepared to go to any length and sacrifice to defend their motherland. Within a short period, not only was the Somalia invader defeated but the territorial integrity, sovereignty and respect of the nation was restored in full. Rubbed the wrong way, the lion roars, the true Ethiopian rises to glory” (Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali, 05.03.2020).

I don’t have the answers here. This is loosely translated from his Facebook post. However, the way it mentions thing it started me to question things and look into it. He celebrated the Karamara victory, the one where Ethiopia successfully where able to annex the Ogaden or the Somali region of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Therefore, it is hot topic to begin with, as the Ethiopian are seen as invaders and as colonizers of the region to begin with.

It is reason why its called the Somali region or Ogaden. Because, it’s belonging to the Federal Republic of Somalia. Now, its been like this ever since, ever since the loss of the war. Still, there are Ethiopian forces fighting for Mogadishu government at the mercy of Addis Ababa. This is known, so for the Prime Minister to celebrate this. Really, shows there are some aims at supremacy for the Prosperity Party and the Prime Minister.

He recalls old glories and even uses wordings, that former Dictator Megistu used to rally up the forces for the “Red Terror”. Using wordings that resembles the battle-cry of the DERG. For me that is weird. Not patriotic, but a sign that the man isn’t that peaceful after all.

Small fragments of the “Call of the Motherland”:

Mengistu took a war-like stance against these threats in the aftermath of the coup on February 3, 1977. A communique issued in the name of the Derg on the following day pointed out that Ethiopian progressives (members of Mengistu’s coalition) had been unable to take action against the counter-revolutionaries because of the dominance of the reactionaries and their supporters in the Derg? it then stated that the revolution’s strategy would, from that day, be transformed from the defensive into the offensive. In his address to a rally held on the same day, Mengistu condemned Teferi and his faction, EPRP, EDU, the Eritrean Liberation Forces, the conservative states of the region and imperialism as enemies of the Ethiopian revolution. In his address at another rally on April 12, Mengistu again condemned the same forces and asked the Ethiopian people to rally around the banner of ‘Call of the Motherland’ and fight the enemies of the revolution(ANDARGACHEW TIRUNEH – The Ethiopian Revolution (1974 to 1984), P: 285-286, 1990).

Government dailies had a section of their front-page devoted to the “Call of the Revolutionary Motherland” from the beginning of May 1977. From the outset, the media campaign combined calls for the defense of territorial integrity with encouragements to denounce internal opponents. See e.g. Ethiopian Herald, 3 May 1977, ‘Call of Motherland: to defend the frontiers, to protect the revolution and to increase production’” (Jacob Wiebel – ‘Revolutionary Terror Campaigns in Addis Ababa, 1976-1978’, 2014).

French MilAtt was informed March 5 by Soviet MilAtt that Jijiga had been recaptured that morning. Soviet also confirmed that Kara Mara Pass had fallen to Ethiopians. French MilAtt believed that major thrust toward Jijiga was from NNW and was combined Ethiopian-Cuban operation. French MilAtt further stated that Ethiopians took heavy casualties” (Office of the Historian – ‘69. Telegram From the Embassy in Ethiopia to the Department of State’ Addis Ababa, March 6, 1978, 1407Z 1054. Subj: Ethiopian Forces Recapture Strategic Ogaden Town of Jijiga. Ref: Addis Ababa 1025).

So, for someone calling himself a reformist and a man whose mission is to make the Republic better. He surely brings back memory of a regime and a type of government he shouldn’t associate himself with. Especially, this is a insult to the Somali and Somalia. They have answered this. Even Oromo leader Mohammad Jawar has addressed it. Therefore, the backlash has occurred.

Still, there is need to ask if this is a gaffe or an intended approach by the Prime Minister. As he has created his “one-party” ahead of elections and with statements like these. He will gain supporters and show flex. However, his also reminding people of a bloody past. A past where the state used terror against dissidents and used all means to stay in power. Therefore, the Prime Minister should consider that.

That its that easy to think in this direction, by the words and wording in his statement. Should boggle us in 2020. As he should not rewrite and praise the Derg, but instead condemn it and their ill-actions. The ramifications plenty of people are still living with today. The EPRDF has used techniques the Derg did too.

As his supposed to reform, he should know better. However, seemingly he wants this messages out. I just question it. As it sparks some memories and his wording isn’t making it better. Especially, when his trying to be a peacemaker in the region. Instead, this way his just another imperialist with in sheep’s cloth. A hidden wolf awaiting his time eat. Peace.

Communique of the Sectoral Ministerial Meeting on the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons in the IGAD Region, 26th February 2020, Khartoum, Republic of Sudan (26.02.2020)

Opinion: GERD negotiations without Ethiopia is an imperialistic move by the US…

The United States Administration holding meetings with the other parties of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). However, the main party was holding separate meetings with the ones whose touched by the GERD, but not the one operating nor owning the dam. That is question of sovereign. Something, the US should understand, but they only understand it when it inflicts themselves.

The two statements from both parties shows the indifference from the United States, while the Ethiopian are answering it with a respectable tone. Even when the US is acting rogue on the matter. They even used the US Treasury on this and not the US State Department, which is weird in itself. Secondly, it was Mnuchin who was involved and not Pompeo. Which is very weird and seems like someone whose not knowledgable or having the capacity to understand the questions remaining in this matter are indirectly trying to negotiate it.

Just look!

Ethiopian Statement:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia noted with disappointment the Statement issued by the United States Department of Treasury on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) released on 28 February 2020, following a meeting held without Ethiopia’s participation. Ethiopia had notified Egypt, Sudan, and the US that it needed more time to deliberate on the process” (…) “Ethiopia as the owner of the GERD will commence first filling of the GERD in parallel with the construction of the Dam in accordance with the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm as provided for under the Agreement on the Declaration of Principles (DoP)” (Amare Asrat – ‘Ethiopian Government Statement on GERD negotiations’ 29.02.2020).

United States of America Statement:

Washington, DC – On February 27-28, 2020, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin participated in separate bilateral meetings with the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Ministers of Water Resources of Egypt and Sudan. The United States facilitated the preparation of an agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) based on provisions proposed by the legal and technical teams of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan and with the technical input of the World Bank” (…) “The United States reaffirms its commitment to remain engaged with the three countries until they sign the final agreement” (US Treasury – ‘Statement by the Secretary of the Treasury on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’ 28.02.2020).

With this final statement by the US, the observer role is dead. They are indirectly interfering and also using their financial powers to get the Ethiopian partners to succumb to a final agreement. Even when the Ethiopian are saying they need more time, the GERD is built by them and on their soil. It is their waters that is filling it up. They are not doing anything illegal by doing so, they are only friendly neighbours by trying to make sensible deals with Egypt and Sudan. That is what the US should understand.

I wonder if they we’re thinking of revamping the Nile Waters Agreement of 1929, a relic of the colonial era. If not, maybe the US thought they could push the 1959 treaty as well. Just because they have the power, but that was before the GERD and it was other regimes in place in Sudan and Egypt. The US shouldn’t push for this ones. Especially, when the US is not involving the owner and operator in talks. Which is disappointing, but also revealing their allies.

Egypt and Sudan needs to cooperate with Ethiopia. They should do so directly to seek their grievances, not work in direct tandem with Washington D.C. especially when Ethiopia is not part of it. That shows the three parties isn’t working together, but trying to score brownie points with the US.

This is not sincere. The approach not to be configured, if there shall be trust between Addis Ababa, Khartoum and Cairo. GERD need another approach by all parties. Especially the US should act sincere, because this talks with others are of no good. The Ethiopian side needs to be listen too, since they are the owner and operator. Not some fool with no vision.

Sudan and Egypt should play ball with Addis, not make love stories with Washington. That is not how these sort of diplomatic negotiations should go. They should know this, unless they wants to be puppets of the US. Peace.

World Bank working paper reveals astonishing amount of aid money to the African continent going directly into tax havens!

The World Bank working paper named ‘Elite Capture of Foreign Aid – Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts’, which was finally released yesterday is a devastating read. Not because of the facts in it, but because of the extent of the misuse and theft of aid money. The World Bank are now proving by small samples how much of their loans, grants and funds, which is given by donors to the WB, which happens to be moved to tax havens by the regimes that needs it. That is eating of the plate of the poorest and living lavish on others people’s dime.

Just in the Annex, the truth really comes forward, where it is only a small samples, but showing the distasteful enterprise still. Like from table one. You can see that a certain amount of African countries have taken out huge funds into havens deposits and non-haven deposits.

The report explains this about the table one: “The table shows the 22 countries in our main sample and presents summary statistics for the main variables in our analysis. The sample includes all countries for which annual disbursements from the World Bank are equivalent to at least 2 percent of annual GDP on average. Sample mean is the average of the 22 countries in the sample. Annual WB aid (% of GDP) is annual disbursements from the World Bank as a fraction of annual GDP. Annual ODA aid (% of GDP) is annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) from all sources as a fraction of annual GDP. Haven deposits is foreign deposits held in the 17 countries classified as havens. Non-haven deposits is foreign deposits held in the countries not classified as havens” (World Bank Feb 2020).

Nation Haven (million USD) Non-Haven (million USD)
Burkina Faso 32 88
Burundi 103 19
Eritrea 8 11
Ethiopia 64 155
Ghana 76 446
Guinea-Bissau 8 16
Madagascar 193 232
Malawi 31 82
Mali 27 133
Mauritania 32 150
Mozambique 40 161
Niger 29 79
Rwanda 149 41
Sao Tome and Principe 4 8
Sierra Leone 32 82
Tanzania 145 437
Uganda 73 188
Zambia 117 306

When you add into the A6 Table of the modestly aid-dependent countries. You see yet more African countries, where the money a flowing out of the coffers. Where surely not all aid is going where its supposed too.

The report explains table A6 like this: “The table shows the 24 countries for which annual disbursements from the World Bank are between 1% and 2% of annual GDP on average. is the average of the 24 countries in the sample. Annual WB aid (% of GDP) is annual disbursements from the World Bank as a fraction of annual GDP. Sample mean is the average of the 22 countries in the sample. WB aid disbursements is annual disbursements from the World Bank as a fraction of annual GDP. Annual ODA aid (% of GDP) is annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) from all sources as a fraction of annual GDP. Haven deposits is foreign deposits held in the 17 countries classified as havens. Non-haven deposits is foreign deposits held in the countries not classified as havens” (World Bank Feb 2020).

Nation Haven (million USD) Non-Haven (million USD)
Benin 42 96
Cape Verde 14 20
Central African Republic 18 53
Chad 11 91
Comoros 7 27
Democratic Republic of Congo 910 93
Cote d’Ivoire 387 787
Gambia 24 82
Guinea 54 114
Kenya 1277 1784
Lesotho 11 28
Senegal 253 487
Togo 82 146

Without going into deep technicalities of these operations, neither how the World Bank came through these numbers. We can see there is a staggering amount of funds that disappear and goes missing. Which was supposed to go to development or directly to support the state functions. Which happens to end up in tax-havens, surely by someone closely associated with the state or heads of state. Since, these sorts of amounts couldn’t have left the nations without the approval of the executive or head of state.

We can also clearly see, that some aid is directly feeding the rich and keeping tax-havens alive. Giving them financial stimulus and also covering the expenses of the elites in the respective places. There is certainly a mismanagement and a need for more oversight from the World Bank. But also more mechanisms to stop the misuse of aid. If it is supposed to help and not just create a very vastly elite in the nation in question. Because, with this sort of operations, they have clearly achieved that. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy’s Anti-‘Medemer’ Law Approved

There are sometimes ironies in life. Today that comes from Addis Ababa and Ethiopia. Where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was supposed to reform things. However, with time that isn’t sincere and today the nail in coffin of that was with a disingenuous law. Laws like these aren’t to save the nations from certain speech, but to muffle critics and opposition.

The Prosperity Party and the Prime Minister are really showing that there is no difference in them compared to the previous regimes, which it came from. This is happening in the months ahead of elections. So, expect the leadership of opposition and journalists to be arrested because of this law. As there are easy steps to be hit by this sort of law. Because of this, I am first dropping the key news about the law, before a simple explanation of the “Medemer” and after that breaking it quickly down.

The State own report on it:
“Addis Ababa, February 13, 2020 (FBC) –Ethiopian parliament today approved a hate speech and disinformation prevention and suppression law. The law was approved with a majority vote, 23 against and 2 abstentions” (…) “It is also intended to control and suppress the dissemination and proliferation of hate speech, disinformation and other related false and misleading information.
The law prohibits disseminating hate speech by means of broadcasting, print or social media using text, image, audio or video” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘House approves hate speech and disinformation prevention law’ 13.02.2020).

What is Medemer:

Since reformist Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed came into office, his concept ‘Medemer’ has become a phrase of common currency within Ethiopia’s political landscape. ‘Medemer’ literally means ‘adding’ or ‘being added’ based on how its read, and contextually means to come together. According to the Prime Minister, ‘Medemer’ is a homegrown approach that aims to solve the country’s challenges by bringing together polar views, and finding compromise” (Ethiopian Press Agency – ‘Inside ‘Medemer’’ 13.01.2020).

This law is clearly aimed at the ones not speaking their language or their rhetoric, as they can charge and make their expression illegal. As they will control the media, the public online and elsewhere. That is why this is totally opposite of the ideals of ‘Medemer’, as that was to bring together polar views and find compromises.

Now, the state is instead made way to stifle the voices, instead of listening they can ban and make voices illegal. Even if there are ethnic hate-speech, if there is tribal sentiment growing. This law will be most likely hit the dissidents and opposition.

This is the opposite of finding compromise and it’s actually silencing them. If this would target Mohammad Jawar’s Oromo Media Network or Eskinder Nega for that matter. I wouldn’t shocked, if they got into trouble for something they wrote or stated online. Neither, if some media forums like Tigrai Online or Aiga Forum for that matter. Don’t be shocked, if these would be banned or seen as illegal by the authorities ahead of the elections. Because, they just need to write or state something online, which is deemed as disinformation, hate-speech and you got it cracking.

This wasn’t a move of reform, but of going back. They might renamed themselves the Prosperity Party, but this is the old-EPRDF oppressive style of move. Peace.

Opinion: Prime Minister Abiy’s hope went up in smoke

The picture isn’t as rosy or hopeful as when he took power. Prime Minister Abiy Ali Ahmed has spoiled his opportunity to make significant changes. Instead he has focused on consolidating power. Ensuring his men is in-charge in Amhara. Continuing to use force and Command Post in Oromia. Still persistent violence in the Ogaden. While, he still has flex and popularity abroad. Which is only there because of the PR and positive press surrounding him.

PM Abiy have reformed the Ethiopian People’s Defence Front (EPRDF), first making it Oromia based and taking away power from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). To now start it as one entity, the Prosperity Party (PP) without the TPLF. The other parties has joined into the one party, but it shows frictions. Not only has the Oromo Liberation Front and other Oromo parties gone into an alliance. Even in Oromia, Mohammad Jawar is ahead and has a grand standing.

That means, both Oromia and Tigray are areas where the Prime Minister standing is weak. As he can only survive there on fear and intimidation. He can only get traction, if he suppress the voters and silence the voices of these regions. While Amhara whose been in conflict too, will cause issues as well. It is like the lid is open to several of places, instead of the man of peace mending these. He amplifying them to gain an advantage. Just like his using the violence of Ogaden to export oil too.

The PM has had the opportunity, but he has squandered the momentum. The killings in Addis Ababa, the horrific affairs in Oromia and Ogaden is a sign of what to come. There is no ending and the Command Post and the Liyu Police are both controlling the regions with fierce force. While the Queerro of Jawar is answering these. All of this doesn’t cease the conflict, but enhancing it. Its like he wants this to ensure enough chaos to rule supreme.

The PM could have found other ways ahead of the elections, but he seems to want it like this. That he wants to usher in new public projects every week ahead of elections. Now deals in the sphere of the horn of Africa. Look good with Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. While that will overlook the internal problems, which the PM is not solving. His only undermining it and not doing the bidding of the local leaders. The ones whose supposed to follow his medemer.

It seems his making things liberal in the sense of pleasing donors, instead of truly believing in it himself. Doing it to state enterprises to ensure donor support. Some might even call it all a “hijacked revolution”. But at this point, we cannot know.

What we do know is that the elections in August 2020 will either be free and fair or rigged to the smallest detail. Don’t expect PM Abiy to play totally fair, even if he opens up to plenty parties, but that will be for the facade, because he will not loose himself. Then he will loose the power his gained and consolidated in office.

Two years is a mighty long time in office. A lot has happen, a lot of promise and pledges, but not acted upon. The coming months will show, if it was all a play or if it can be a reality. If the PP and Abiy cares about the people or using them as pawns. We can just await, but don’t expect magic, but expect a hard reality. As the forces are still in the fields. The atrocities are still happening and the escalation of it. Is only a few small steps away and that can ordered directly from the PM.

It’s easy to speak of unity and peace, but it’s harder to actually make it happen. When the PM himself hasn’t acted upon those words, but instead amplified it in certain regions. The Ethno-politics are not over, but at a stage where the PM and his folk better be cautious and not reckless.

However, who knows what path he picks, but don’t expect it all to be fair. Instead, expect it to be fanfare and filled with empty promises. As it is not like he has delivered to the hope he spread in the beginning of his term. Peace.

Djibouti: Terminal a Conteneurs de Doraleh (DCT) – Seule une issue indemnitaire equitable et conforme au droit international est envisageable (15.01.2020)

Opinion: Abiy’s two giant losses

That Prime Minister Dr. Ali Ahmed Abiy are currently loosing a bit of prestige at home and its very visible. His able to get through positive bills, like the recent bill on assembly and such lately. However, that doesn’t overshadow two important things for alliances and to get a bigger picture ahead of upcoming elections in 2020.

He has lost one important party, which was seen as the steering-wheel and the ones behind scenes controlling the old coalition of Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Front (EPRDF), which is now created into one party, the Prosperity Party. The other parties in the old coalition has made itself into one, but the ones now joining is the Tigrai People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that has deemed the new party even “illegal”.

If the Prime Minister see this as a minor flinch, he should be wrong. That they are still viable and able to create trouble for him. No one should underestimate the TPLF and what they can do. Even as all the lights and stars are directed at Abiy. His still not walking alone in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE).

What makes him even more alone is from his own region, where there is still reports of killings and oppression from the state. As the endless violence persist. Something, that the former Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) could have reacted to and hasn’t acted upon. That’s why you know he has more trouble ahead. As his nemesis in Oromia, Mohammed Jawar have not only plans to join the race in the elections, but also joined the Oromo Federal Congress (OFC). Just merely a weeks after he did that. His been able to get Oromo Federal Congress, Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Nationalist Party (ONP) to all be one alliance into the upcoming election.

Therefore, there is not only issues with the Tigray and the TPLF, whose not being a part of the new party. Which is a warning signal in itself. But that Jawar is able to become such a figure in Oromia. Says that Abiy doesn’t have the love in his own region, where OPDO was supposed to reside and represent in government.

I’m not defending the TPLF, no their vindictive and vicious history will be reflected in due time. But however with an upcoming election. Abiy needs as many friends as possible, if he wants to reflect positive on him. Unless, he plans to rig it like there is no tomorrow. Than, all of these movements doesn’t matter anyway. Because he will win and the Prosperity Party will be signed off as the victor. A giant launch of the One-Party State, while the others are allowed only to be mediocre parties locally, who has no say in Parliament or in the Federal system.

We should worry that TPLF and Jawar is doing what he does. Because, the undermine the central government. They are making the PP looking foolish. This is not dialogue and not the talks, this is not the acts of strength, but acts of the weak.

Debretsion Gebremichael might have the ability to sound prestigious with his party. The Press Release was a big-man statement from the Party too. However, that doesn’t change the narrative. Other than they are leaving the EPRDF legacy behind. They are the only boat steaming ahead with non of the former parties. They are becoming an opposition party, instead of being a governing party.

The PP is weaker by this. They have lost one big piece of the EPRDF. One that was historically vital to it all. The Woyane will be missed by some and cursed by others. For all the right reasons. Nevertheless, the loser here right now is Abiy. He needs his buddies. While he gets less and less. Even fewer in Oromia too. Where he get more and more united opposition there. That is what is visible and obvious.

Whatever, Abiy is doing, the state apparatus, the yes-men around him isn’t helping. His not solving or revolving the doors correctly. He is losing, one after another one. There cannot be more sudden rash coup d’etat in the regions. This election has to look real. If he wants to still look like a shining star. However, that star is dimming and its does so slowly. Peace.