Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Abiy’s unbelievable message…

The two peoples of Sudan and Ethiopia are brothers. Undoubtedly, there are many problems between Sudan and Ethiopia. We must intensify and cooperate in confronting and solving these dilemmas. There are many who want us to slip into each other’s fight. But these parties – whether they are governments or others – will not reap any benefit from fuelling strife between our two peoples, for us, our choice is peace between our two peoples, and our two brotherly countries. Our choice is for mutual trust to prevail between us. There should not be confrontations between us, because of external pressures” (…) “We have to control our selves; And to be restrained. This is for the sake of our common interests and the principles of good neighborliness. There should be no enmities between us, We have all respect for the brotherly Sudanese people. We believe that Sudan and Ethiopia are capable of solving all the problems and difficulties they face in the spirit of lasting brotherhood and good neighborliness” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali message to Sudan (29.06.2022).

This trick could have worked after he signed the secret agreement and pact with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki. Now in 2022 the wiggle room or believing in the words of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has worn thin. These sorts of quotes and statements seems like a smokescreen and not the real deal. Not anymore because of the “red terror” and acts of the past year.

That PM Abiy acts of talks and dialogue between neighbours could have seen as sincere. However, after the skirmishes last year. At that time he didn’t really commit and give it any real time. He just gave the Sudanese PM a few hours before he went on to another project. The PM didn’t seem interested to talk or negotiate. It seemed like it bothered and he was disinterested in the Sudanese dignitary and hold proper talks with him.

That’s why we know he don’t want any interference from IGAD or the AU. We know Abiy want a solo-mission and only goodwill. Even if his army started it and they did execute 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them. This is why the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) retaliated and went on to attack certain parts of the El-Fashaqa region. Where the to nations has staked their claim over the territories. As the Amhara settles was evicted and banished from a settlement as well.

So, when Abiy speaks of brotherhood it seems insincere now. The same is the talks of dialogue. I should wish it was true. The PM has however been very reluctant and not engaged in these things. It doesn’t help that he says “external pressures” and that they are are “capable of solving all problems”. When his army and his allies is confronting, use violence and targeting land on Sudanese territory.

Yes, it would have been nice to see Demeke Mekonnen, Abiy Ahmed Ali, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemeti and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a neutral space and with a trustworthy third party negotiators. Nevertheless, we know that is not on the cards and neither anyone who is inviting it. That’s why we shouldn’t expect an Ethiopian or a Sudanese delegation to a conference or meeting to hash out their differences.

That the AU calls for “restraint” is a natural response, as the tensions has escalated. This is all natural how the things has transpired. Abiy isn’t an honest actor and I cannot believe his words now. The Office of the Prime Minister and himself needs to do more.

This time around he needs to talk for hours and possibly days. Since, the latest executions and escalations is just furthering the actions of skirmishes of last year. Therefore, this time it’s a time for a sit-down and address the border point. Also, stop the movement of troops across it. That’s how the battles and deaths are appearing. Both parties needs to talk. This has been an escalation after the Tripartite alliance went into the Tigray Region in November 2020. Where they have gone into Sudan too.

That’s why the PM Abiy has to do more than dropping a flattering statement with words he doesn’t believing in. This isn’t enough. Peace.

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan army retake Fashaqa Al-Kubra in El Fashaga region

Sudan’s military retakes complete control of Fashaqa Al-Kubra, after driving Ethiopia’s army from Brekht settlement during two-day fighting. Sudanese warplanes have taken part in the offensive. Dozens of ENDF military vehicles have been destroyed – local media” (Somali Guardian, 28.06.2022).

This two day battle in the heavily contested Al-Fashqa (El-Fashaga) region comes after the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) executed 7 Sudanese soldiers. Both nations has fought over the territory for some time.

In the Brekht or Bereket settlement Amhara settlers has been now forcefully evicted by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is 50km inside the Sudanese territory. So, things are changing and the Sudanese authorities are retaliating towards the Ethiopian neighbours.

These latest news aren’t only worrying. However, we knew the executions of the 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them would create tensions. Now we are seeing the Sudanese react with violence and defending their territories.

We could worry about the refugees and the ones who has fled from Ethiopia into Sudan after the start of the “Law Enforcement Operation” in Tigray region. Since the start of the warfare in the region. There been skirmishes of the tripartite alliance within the Al-Fashqa region inside Sudan. The SAF has posted and strengthened their border post because of it.

Now, they have taken it further and is proving a point. Well, that’s not shocking when the Ethiopian army is straight up executing their soldiers after kidnapping them. It is like asking for it. We just have to hope the SAF doesn’t clash even further or push onto Ethiopian soil.

There is a need for talks, but we know how condescending Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was towards former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. So, time will tell if he acts differently towards the President and the Deputy of the Sovereign Council. However, I wouldn’t count on it. Abiy isn’t that kind and would only drop a “brotherly” statement if he feels his losing or lacking results for his cause.

Time will tell how this goes… but this is not looking good and the parties needs to resolve the differences. Before it escalates into a full-blown war. Peace.

Ethiopia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Press Statement (27.06.2022)

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: SAF confirms that the ENDF executed 7 soldiers (POW)

This is a worrying escalation of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) when they are executing Prisoners of War (POW) or soldiers of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is happening after the skirmishes happening in the Al-Fashqa region and in the Malakawa area. It has happened as an escalation in the internal conflict of Northern Ethiopia. As the ENDF and Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” has entered Sudanese territory. Because, the Ethiopian government wants to further it’s territory into it.

Now the ENDF has taken it further and shown their acts. They have executed and killed foreign soldiers in their domain. That says a lot about how the regime in Addis Ababa operates. This should not only be a warning, but possibly block all sort of dialogue or relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa.

Khartoum now see what sort of neighbours they have at the moments. The Prime Minister Abiy speaks of brotherhood, but he has no issues of killing. That has been evident ever since he started his reign in Oromia and Ogaden region with mass-arrests and extra judicial-killings. Therefore, the continuation of that was furthered in the “Operation Law Enforcement” in the Tigray region. Which with the movement of troops ended up in a contest region within Sudan. The SAF has stopped the entering and the skirmishes. Still, it has been active since the start of the war in Tigray.

Just read the statement published by the Times of Sudan today!

Sudan | Armed Forces: The Ethiopian army executed 7 soldiers and a captive citizen

The armed forces issued a statement today about the Ethiopian army’s execution of seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were captives of it.

Statement text:

In the name of Allah the Most Merciful Most Gracious

Sunday 26 June 2022

Statement

God Almighty says: (Among the believers are men who are true to their covenant with God. Some of them have fulfilled their vows, and among them are those who wait, and they have not changed in the least).

In an act that contravenes all laws and customs of war and international humanitarian law, the Ethiopian army executed seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were their captives, and then presented them to their fellow citizens with all contempt.

The Sudanese Armed Forces, as they extend their deepest condolences to the families of the honorable martyrs, affirm categorically to the honorable Sudanese people that this treacherous situation will not pass without a response, and it will respond to this cowardly behavior in what suits it because Sudanese blood is precious, (And those who have wronged are going to know to what [kind of] return they will be returned).

Heaven and eternity for our righteous martyrs, God is great and glory is to Sudan.

The Office of the Official Spokesperson for the Armed Forces.” (Times of Sudan, 27.06.2022).

This is worrying and the Prosperity Party cannot talk about peace. When they in “peace-time” with Sudan is killing their soldiers and executes them. That just a signal of how the Ethiopian authorities acts towards supposed enemies and how it operates. This is more than a warning shot, but should put the region on red-alert. Especially, the border forces in the Al-Fashqua region of Sudan.

Since, the ENDF is able to do this now. We have seen and heard months ago about the skirmishes in Sudan. Now, they are doing this. It is not looking good… and should send cold chills down your spine. Peace.

South Sudan: Abyei Special Administrative Area – Press Release (18.03.2022)

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: New skirmishes at the border on Saturday

Sudan’s military sent fresh military reinforcements to the border with Ethiopia, a day after Ethiopian troops launched cross-border attack, killing more than 20 Sudanese soldiers. Sudan’s army says it will confront Ethiopia’s attempt to thwart the “harvest season” at Fashaqa” (Somali Guardian, 28.11.2021).

Yet, again there is reports of Ethiopian army or affiliates crossing the border from the Western Tigray region at the Al-Fashaga region inside Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) where attacked yesterday and it’s happening yet again. This isn’t the first time, but there been skirmishes like this in the previous year in the same area.

Sudanese military repels a new cross-border attack by Ethiopian troops backed by Amhara militia near Malakawa area, 17km deep into Sudan border – Sudanese media reports.

Fighting lasted for several hrs. At least one Sudanese soldier reportedly killed, others wounded”

That’s why its hard to believe that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) says this today to the press.

The Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Berhanu Gula, “Ethiopia does not want war with Sudan,” and we’ll solve border encroachments on Ethiopian territory through law and dialogue. What is happening now is an attempt by Sudan to invent a war between the two countries.” (28.11.2021).

There been further reports of an additional 33 wounded in the clash as well. Therefore, this has been bloody and devastating. What do know from reports of late, is that the Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” and Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) have had battalions in the Western Tigray. Where they have also committed massacres in Humera area in November 2021. Therefore, these are soldiers and militia members who are willing to kill…

These has both in the past year crossed into this region and attacked on Sudanese soil. So, this isn’t the first nor the last time they will do this. As the tensions and the border dispute continues. This is far from over… and that shows the first clashes and skirmishes in the region by the parties happened in late December 2020 and we are in late November 2021. Therefore, this has been a prolonged conflict by the parties. While they have been unwilling to settle it. We know the Ethiopian government haven’t been willing and only had small-talks with the Sudanese government officials. Peace.

Security Council Press Statement on United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (15.10.2021)

The following Security Council press statement was issued today by Council President Martin Kimani (Kenya):

The members of the Security Council heard a briefing by the Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations on the sharp deterioration of the situation regarding the presence of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) in Gok Machar, South Sudan.

The members of the Security Council expressed their grave concern over recent developments in Gok Machar, including threats to the safety and security of peacekeepers which resulted in the death of a peacekeeper from Ethiopia on 14 September 2021, undermining the ability of UNISFA to support the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The members of the Security Council noted that these recent threats followed the forced relocation, completed between 26 and 31 August 2021, of UNISFA troops and equipment from the JBVMM team site 11 in Safaha/Kiir Adem and team site 12 in As Sumayah/War Abar to the JBVMM Sector 1 Headquarters in Gok Machar due to the threats to the safety and security of peacekeepers.

The members of the Security Council reiterated their full support for UNISFA and expressed their continued concern that the full implementation of UNISFA’s mandate is being obstructed.

The members of the Security Council demanded the Government of South Sudan to facilitate the unimpeded implementation of UNISFA’s mandate, as described in resolution 2575 (2021), and provide full support to UNISFA’s personnel by removing any obstacles that hinder UNISFA’s work to protect civilians, including by ensuring the mission’s freedom of movement and by facilitating UNISFA’s provision of food, medicine and other supplies to its personnel.

The members of the Security Council also called on the Government of South Sudan to honour its obligations in accordance with resolutions 2518 (2020) and 2575 (2021) and under the Status of Forces Agreement with UNISFA.

The members of the Security Council underscored the important role of UNISFA and the JBVMM in support of achieving peace, security and stability in Abyei and the broader region, and urged the Government of South Sudan to intensify its mediation efforts with members of the local community in Gok Machar to reduce tensions and to provide for the redeployment of UNISFA personnel to team sites 11 and 12. The members further called on Sudan and South Sudan to convene a meeting of the Joint Political and Security Mechanism (JPSM) to address the existing challenges and facilitate the work of the JBVMM.

The members of the Security Council welcomed the continued cooperation between the Governments of Sudan and South Sudan, which is critical for the peace, security and stability in Abyei and the broader region. Recalling resolution 2575 (2021), they reiterated their support for the African Union, the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel and the United Nations Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa in mediating with the Governments of Sudan and South Sudan.

Ethiopia: Rising inflation [is it a result of the Law Enforcement Operation?]

In Ethiopia there been open warfare since November 2020. This is now seeing effects far away from the Tigray region. The truth is that warfare and conflicts cost. You pay for mercenaries, soldiers, food, shelter and heavy weaponry. All of that costs and implicates the economy. The spending have to go from somewhere and has to settled. This means certain other parts of the economy looses its value or gets less of investments. In which things gets scarce or get hit by the new demand. Since the Tripartite Alliance needs more supplies for their warfare.

Addis Fortune Reported on the 5th April 2021 this:

There appears little solace for consumers in Ethiopia, with the year-on-year headline inflation reaching at 20.6pc in March this year, a little over the nearly 20pc annual average last year. The largest increase in prices was seen in food items such as edible oil, fruit and vegetables and spice, according to a statement by the Ethiopian Statistics Agency. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March shows a 22pc jump compared to the same period last month. Non-food items such as fuel and energy, alcohol, tobacco and chat as well as transport, medical expense and construction materials have seen an increase in prices of 18.9pc” (Addis Fortune – ‘Headline Inflation Reaches 20.6pc on Year’, 05.04.2021).

This is the government excuse for the rising inflation:

ADDIS ABABA–The continuous demand-supply imbalance and ill-investment strategy of the former administration have resulted in the structural and worsening current inflation, so disclosed Planning and Development Commission. The Commission’s Deputy Commissioner with the rank of State Minister Nemera Gebeyehu (Ph.D) told The Ethiopan Press Agencey (EPA) that even though many people believe inflation is worsened after the reform, the reform measures taken by the government do minimize the inflation, but a lot remains to be done since it is structural driven from the ill-investment strategy of the former administration” (Dargie Kahsay – ‘Ethiopia: Previous Maladministration Takes Blame for Current Inflation – Commission’, 03.04.2021, The Ethiopian Herald).

We are clearly seeing here the effects of the mismanagement or priorities of the state. A steady war is costly and the price of that is on the citizens. That is why the prices are going up and the state will lack currency. The state will do whatever it can to continue supply and generate enough funds. Which in the end means more inflation and devalued currency, which will also means the citizens will get less for their money and imported goods will be more expensive. It is a vicious circle and a negative spiral. That this government is doing by its efforts as a Tripartite Alliance member and fighting on its own soil.

The Prosperity Party is also blaming the old EPRDF, which it was in coalition with and consolidated power from. The PP is practically not taking responsibility for the actions in office and only pushes it on the previous government. That is really rich. Just like all warfare is the TPLF to blame in Tigray. This is following a pattern and the excuses is getting old.

The PP should seriously be worried about the rate the inflation is going and what shocks this will have for the citizens. There is already videos reminiscent of the fuel crisis in 2015. This being leaked clips and statements of troubles getting fuel in Addis Ababa all week. That is a sign of what to come and costs of the war.

The Addis Ababa administration should be worried about this. The costs of war is coming forward now. Not only the loss of prestige with the Prime Minster and the image as a whole. The PP and the PM isn’t looking like reformers anymore, but as a warlords. They are not only brining destruction to the Region of Tigray, but also destroying the economy as a result. This will be carried for long and effects of the war will take a toll. We can just wonder about how many will pay the additional costs and struggle because of it. That is how these things goes. The elites and the one in-charge will not feel it, but the average citizen has to live with the new standard. They are paying the price for the inflation and have to collect whatever they can out of their currency. Peace.

Ethiopia: Press Release from the Tigrayan Nationalist Parties Forum on the Deteriorating Humanitarian crisis in Tigray (09.04.2021)

Ethiopia: Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – Press Release (08.04.2021)

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