Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

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The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

  • Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
  • A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
  • IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
  • Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
  • A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.

NDM Statement on the UNSC Meeting Pertaining to the Situation in South Sudan (24.01.2017)

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South Sudan: Communique on Deteriorating Security Situation in Kajo Keji (25.01.2017)

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South Sudan: CTSAMM Deeply Shocked and Saddend by the Deat of One of its Opposition Liason Officers in Wau (25.01.2017)

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South Sudan: Abduction of the Dong Samuel and Aggrey Idri by Kenyan Authorities (25.01.2017)

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NDM: Press Statement on the Creation of Additional States by President Kiir (16.01.2017)

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New Head of the UN Mission in South Sudan arrives in Juba (20.01.2017)

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Opinion: On the day ECOWAS forces are fighting for the Gambian Democracy; What if other Regional Bodies like EAC, IGAD or SADC did similar in their regions?

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In this days we see the strength of one collaborate effort from Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS), which has the strength of the Nigerian Army and other ones in the unity. The trading partnership of these nations involved in the regional group are now showing strength by supporting the The Gambian Republic and their wish for a change of an executive as they have put a joint operation from Senegal to invade and put the newly elected President Adama Barrow. The President, the incumbent Yahya Jammeh doesn’t want to step down, even as his army are filled with deserters and his loyal ministers who have resigned. Soldiers are even said be to be staying in the barracks instead of being in the field battling the joint operation. The others have fled to Senegal if they we’re legal counsel or minister, where the President-Elect where Barrow are sworn-in today.

What we should wish if there we’re other regional efforts who cleared the way and paths for nations to be free from their dictators and leaders who don’t stepdown. This would be a step up for international bodies where they actually have the ability to do something quickly without too long procedures. The United Nations Security Council and the African Union Peace and Security Council usually tend to use to long time to be able to fix it or even get voted mandate to engage in the troubled nation.

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Gambia has had an election and now the ECOWAS have their army besides the borders. This is happening as the reports from Banjul hasn’t been hopeful as there still Presidential Guards around the Mansion of Jammeh today. The capital is also said to be a ghost time as the fear of the coming ECOWAS army arriving with the newly elected President. If they will come they will bring something new to Democracies around the world. That with or without mandate from the United Nations; the Regional Effort would deal with a thieving of a nation from one man. There reports that ECOWAS are sending the fighter jets over Gambian land, to prove that their behind Barrow and not Jammeh. This proves their will of standing behind the will of the citizens of Gambia. The warships have also blocked the waterways out of Gambia, so the incumbent should feel fenced in.

So what if these we’re common acts when people stole power and wouldn’t leave the Republic’s or nations. Like if Southern African Development Community (SADC) had gone in after the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and opposition presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai won the election over incumbent Zanu-PF leader and President Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe in the year of 2002; that after a fraudulent election where the incumbent did ballot stuffing and other tricks to secure mandate for another term. If SADC had been honest and had military power they could have come with a joint operation of armies of Angola, South Africa, Botswana, Tanzania and less battalions from the other representative nations. As they would be stationed in South Africa and covered the borders with jet planes and tanks to settle grievances between a rigged election and the citizens who demands democracy in Zimbabwe.

Just as we could wish Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) would do something when they have lingering Presidents in power, which they would use their levels of experience and armies to prove that the people’s wishes should matter. The IGAD could have used their forces on the border and taken acts against civilians as acts against humanity, where the IGAD structure would shield their people like in the Republic who has the headquarter in Addis Ababa, so that means that Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan would have armies besides the border for the violence and killings in Oromia and Amhara in 2016. The same would be for the Kenyan, Ugandan, Sudan and Ethiopian who would act against the civil war and killings inside South Sudan. The same as people have been claimed that President Museveni has cheated himself into power and therefore an illegitimate government. This is something that could have happen and has already happen; would the IGAD act upon it?

Than we have the Eastern African Confederation (EAC), which is based in Arusha in Tanzania. That one has the co-operation between East African Countries. If this one really cared about invalid and illegitimate elections would the EAC have voluntarily sent troops to Burundi to stop the internal bloodshed and the assault on liberties; as the illegitimate government of President Pierre Nkurunziza came into power through a farce of an election in 2015! This could also been done from the EAC when we are thinking of the acts of the TGoNU in South Sudan as the violence escalated in 2016 after they had become a member state in the EAC. That would be of legitimate concerns and not with monetary gains as the UPDF went into the Republic to shield President Salva Kiir Mayardit before the new peace-agreement with him and Dr. Riek Machar. This time around they could go in shield the nation from both parties as they are victims of a power struggle against SPLM and SPLM-IO.

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So the SADC, EAC and IGAD doesn’t have the reach or the wanted play to stand by the citizens, it’s more like it is a Presidents clubs where they can lounge and drink tea abroad. They should be unites and cooperation for the benefit of all the member states and their citizens. These ones shouldn’t just be for general trade and infrastructure projects between the nations. If they would be functional they would serve the people when needed. Still, this is a dreamful wish. Not that I wish them to have functional army, but joint operations like the one in Gambia happening today in the favour of the winning President Barrow. We should hope for more of these engagements and operations to besiege an already illegitimate regimes in nations, where the neighbours and the cooperatives their parts of are taken matters into their own hands. This is ten times better than when the United States, France, Germany or United Kingdom is sending their mercenaries to overpower and to overthrow a foreign power. This acts of today in Gambia, will not be seen as a neo-colonial relic put into our present day, instead it will be remembered for the collective effort of fellow nations on the continent acting on their own will and for the best of the Gambian democracy. That is rare and hopes for the best of humanity, not the last as the citizens of the world deserve a fair beating of the tyrants who clings to power. Peace.

New drought risks in Ethiopia put recovery at risk (17.01.2017)

Hailemariam Desalegn Ethiopia

FAO targets pastoralists in southern regions facing failed rains on heels of a calamitous El Niño.

ROME, Italy, January 17, 2017 -New drought across swathes of southern Ethiopia may jeopardize the East African nation’s restoration of food security after the worst agricultural seasons in decades unless urgent efforts are made to shore up vulnerable households in rural areas, FAO warned today.

While an impressive government-led humanitarian effort has sharply reduced the number of hungry during the worst drought in 50 years, the legacy of last year’s El Niño along with low rainfall during a critical season pose renewed risks now, especially for pastoral communities facing forage shortfalls and water scarcity in southern regions.

Safeguarding recent gains requires responding to the livelihood-sustaining needs of fragile households that lost or sold livestock and other assets, often adding to family debt burdens to cope with the worst El Niño in modern history.

Effective and timely action has reduced the number of people who will need food aid in 2017 to 5.6 million, down from almost twice as much last August, according to the newly released Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD). However, food security in 120 woredas (districts) has worsened since July, while 86 woredas are entering their third year (since December 2015) of top-priority emergency status.

The just-approved HRD, jointly developed by the Government of Ethiopia along with UN agencies, non-governmental organizations and other development partners, covers a range of subjects including education, access to water and nutrition. It advises that the bulk of the agriculture sector needs are related to assistance to pastoralists and agropastoralists livestock assistance – a total of $42 million is required by the sector to reach 1.9 million households, mainly in drought-affected southern and southeastern pastoral regions, this year.

Drought strikes again
While northern and western Ethiopia bore the brunt of El Niño, a new drought is emerging in southern and southeastern pastoral areas including Oromia, Somali and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNP) after poor, delayed and erratic rains curbed pasture and water availability. Some 80 percent of Ethiopians depend on agriculture and livestock for their livelihoods and an even higher share of the country’s arable land relies on seasonal rainfall.

Below-average precipitation has also affected neighboring Somalia and Kenya. The impact is expected to be most dire in early 2017 among livestock, with unusually early migrations, excess mortality rates and extreme emaciation.

FAO calls for an immediate response to support the food security and nutrition of households reliant on animals. Along with the provision of supplementary animal feed, especially along migratory routes, targeted destocking interventions will be implemented to make protein-rich meat available for vulnerable pastoral communities and support livestock prices in local markets.

Poorly-fed animals reproduce less frequently, lengthening the prospective time required to rebuild herds. For Ethiopian households, restocking after the loss of half of one’s cattle typically takes four years without adverse conditions.

Addressing fragility

Even though FAO’s support will focus on communities depending on livestock, some areas along the Rift Valley, however, especially in the northern and eastern highlands, are facing below-average crop production and therefore receive prioritized agricultural support as recovery will take longer than anticipated.

South Sudan refugees and their hosting communities in Gambella Region, are facing significant food availability and access challenges, and enabling households to produce more of their own food is essential.

After having reached 1.3 million farmers and herders affected by the El Niño-induced drought in 2016, FAO is appealing for $20 million to reach one million farming, agropastoral and pastoral households in 2017, with the aim of protecting gains made last year and preventing vulnerable households from slipping further into food insecurity.

FAO’s programme seeks in particular to support crop production, implement emergency response and resilience activities in the livestock sector, support livelihoods in refugee-hosting areas and strengthen coordination, information and analysis.

Letter: Buzzfeed try to claim that South Sudan’s National Courier and the Newspaper answers (16.01.2017)

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