PM Kheire says “no outside mediation” in 5 States Non Co-Operation Standstill: However, isn’t that all Villa Somalia has to offer?

I have hard time taking Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire or Khayre seriously, when concerning foreign mediation in Somali affairs. As that has been the ordeal for so long, not that I don’t want the Federal Government of Somalia to be sovereign and work on its own. However, with the recent International Stakeholders Conferences in Europe like in London and in Brussels in 2018. There is clearly this, plus the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Saudi Arabian interference in Somali Affairs. While also United States and United Nations are also directly involved, either with arms/drones or with governance. This being UNSOM or AMISOM who are clearly active and vital for security in Somalia.

The PM states for no need for foreign mediation after several states are saying no to work directly with FGS and Kheire/Farmaajo after they are tired of no grip of what they see as their grievances towards Mogadishu and Villa Somalia.

Therefore, this is statement the PM had:

Mr Khayre, however, asserted that the days of Somali leaders seeking foreign mediation on internal issues were over. He reiterated that all differences should be sorted out through compromises. “We welcome that all grievances are cleared through dialogue and compromises, considering the interest of the Somali people,” said Mr Khayre” (…) ““We cannot accept people saying that Mogadishu’s security was unreliable,” Mr Khayre stressed. “This is the Somali capital. A city in which we have all invested and stands as a symbol of our sovereignty,” he added” (ABDULKADIR KHALIF – ‘Somali PM rejects foreign mediation in internal affairs’ 17.09.2018).

I feel the PM is not the right man for this message, as the FGS truly need the AMISOM and UNSOM to operate, as well as the foreign funding of the government. Even if the Somali people are the best with Mobile Money and remittance to their own. It is still at the levels of foreign donations that is running the government. As well, as Farmaajo was recently hanging out in Beijing for participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Because the International involvement is always welcomed with projects and with donations, that is why even the state of Puntland had to write a statement when the Germans pulled out from a road project now in September. Therefore, Kheire, knows this perfectly well, but still acts like its a nation without any interference.

Kheire wants to be the big-man and wants the FGS to be vital and important, but right now it needs to show progress and value. As the states saying its stopped, is because they are tired of the shows and none actions. Therefore, an internal mediation isn’t believable as he cannot send the Somali National Army to silence these ones this time. This time Kheire might need it, as the states might not settle with just meeting the President and the Prime Minister. They need to show more flex and that they are seriously addressing their concerns, not only for safety, but the other measures that are in question. As the FGS seems more like a floating balloon, than steady government institutions.

Kheire should feel this too, as he has been traveling between all stakeholders and partners, except for when he is settling the score and undermining the Lower House of late. Therefore, this sort of speech and talk is more swagger, than the reality on the ground. If he was that sovereign, he wouldn’t need the Brussels and the London Stakeholders Conferences within the calendar year. Alas, that is is the case. Therefore, he should follow the asked outside mediation and secure wishes of the states, which has stopped to directly co-operate with Villa Somalia.

The PM has to act up and be humble, show humility and even some grace, but who knows if he has it in him. Peace.

‘Wind of hope’ blowing through Horn of Africa says UN chief, as Ethiopia and Eritrea sign historic peace accord (17.09.2018)

NEW YORK, USA, September 17, 2018 –  There is a powerful wind of hope blowing across the Horn of Africa region, said UN chief António Guterres on Sunday, in Saudi Arabia to witness the signing of a peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, ending decades of simmering conflict.

Saudi Arabia facilitated the agreement, and in a message on Twitter, the Foreign Ministry said that the accord, signed in Jeddah “is a historic milestone for the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea, and will contribute to strengthening security and stability in the region at large”.

“The signature of the peace agreement between the President of Eritrea and the Prime Minister of Ethiopia is indeed a historic event,” said the Secretary-General, speaking at a press conference following the signing in Saudi Arabia’s second-largest city, on the Red Sea coast, with Foreign Minister Adel Aljubeir.

“We have seen a conflict that has lasted for decades, ending, and that has a very important meaning in a world where we see, unfortunately, so many conflicts multiplying, and lasting forever,” added Mr. Guterres.

He expressed his “deep appreciation” for the role played by Saudi Arabia, before paying tribute “on one hand to the courage, the vision, the wisdom of the Prime Minister of Ethiopia – who has had the capacity to overcome enormous resistance from the past and open a new chapter in the history of his country – and also the way the President of Eritrea has promptly responded to his peace initiatives.”

The thaw in relations between the neighbouring countries, who fought a bloody, unresolved war in the late 1990s, began in earnest in June, when Ethiopia’s newly-elected leader, Abiy Ahmed, made peace overtures to his counterpart, which have now come to fruition.

Seizing on the implications for the whole region, Mr. Guterres said that the agreement meant that “there is a wind of hope blowing in the Horn of Africa. It is not only the peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea – it is the fact that tomorrow and the day after tomorrow we will have, here in Saudi Arabia, the President of Djibouti and the President of Eritrea – two countries that have also been at odds with each other.”

According to news reports, Eritrea and Djibouti announced on Friday that they would also normalize diplomatic relations with each other following a falling out on the border, in 2008, which left several dead and resulted in prisoners being taken on both sides.

The UN chief also noted the peace agreement between the President and his former Vice President in South Sudan, that was signed on Thursday – in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa – as another indicator of real diplomatic movement across the Horn of Africa and its borders.

“I want to say that this window of hope is enormously important in a world where, unfortunately, hope has been very scarce,” added the Secretary-General.

Somalia: Puntland Press Statement on Jalam – Harfo Road Project (13.09.2018)

Somalia: 5 States Ceased to work with Villa Somalia today, so is this the end of the Federal Republic?

Today, the Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire have now their biggest hurdle in their political career. As the leaders of the regional states of Jubaland, Puntland, South West and Hishabelle have officially suspended their working relationship with the Federal Government of Somalia or Villa Somalia. This meaning, their states and the federation are separating for various of reasons.

This is not the Somaliland, which has for a long time tried to become independent and worked for that, even launched own currency and has held elections. This are the 5 states of Jubaland, Puntland, South West and Hishabelle. This happens as the Federal Government have not done what it has promised for the regional states, as they have not shared intelligence, neither revenue or prepared enough national security.

After the leadership of the states has suspended the co-operation with the Federal Government, the President has called in for a meeting in the National Security Council. We can wonder if this is to see if their statement is a political bargain or a real deal. Because if they come into the NSC, they are still in co-operation with the FGS. This meeting is supposed to be scheduled at the 17th and 18th September 2018. That is in 9 days. The ones showing up will be vital for the Federal Government of Mogadishu.

This is happening, as the President have had yet another meeting abroad of International interests and diplomacy in Asmara, Eritrea. This was a Joint Declaration between Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia. Which was a positive step, but what does it matter if the inner-circle are crumbling. The Villa Somalia are more embattled within, than with outside forces as the President have been preoccupied with United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey interference, as well as the EU and UN Secretary General Michael Keating involvement in political structures of the Federal Government. Who is busy politicking as he can.

What do have to question and wonder about, what is the final consequences of the released statement of the joint 5 states ceasing to work with Villa Somalia?

This is not small fry and battling over supremacy, but tiredness of the lackluster support from Villa Somalia, whose more concerned about the international stakeholders than the turnover and not enough co-operation. That is why today is important to see the reality.

This haven’t been the writing on the wall, but a proof of something dire, that the Villa Somalia have to find new ways to deliver to the Regional States, as the Federal Government are not an island, but a giant machinery working for all the states. They are not there to serve the international interests, but the states in the Federal Government.

Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the Federal Republic of Somalia and Villa Somalia. If they are not planning to invade these states with the Somali National Army or the AMISOM brigades, but that will not make the co-operation easier. The President shouldn’t just call in a NSC in 9 days, but actually try to ask forgiveness and ask what the FGS can do, that it hasn’t done for the 5 states, which has ceased their work with Villa Somalia. That would be bold and prove that the President knows what he is up to and awaiting orders from stakeholders before he moves. Peace.

Chinese Investments in Africa: It is not a free-lunch, the tab has to be paid!

African leaders should not turn the continent into a giant collector of donations and loans from wealthy nations—they must find other plausible means to help established their economic security so as to minimize poverty. This incoherent blunder on the mainland must be scrutinized.”Duop Chak Wuol

As The 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is scheduled to happen on the 2nd and 3rd December 2018, there is time to remember how the Chinese is operating on the African Continent. The Chinese isn’t coming with empty giving hands of donations or even charity. They come with intent of interests and needs of resources from the continent, by offering loans, serving and building through state owned enterprises (SOE) in various of countries, whether it is roads, ports or railroads are built by Chinese Companies, by Chinese Workers and often on Chinese loans. Therefore, they might end up as Chinese owned enterprises, whose vital for transportation and export of needed minerals and whatnot from the continent.

Instead of coming with loans and direct-aid with strings like Western Powers has done over the last few decades, the Chinese are coming with friendly loans, but the Heads of State should know that the Chinese doesn’t play. They want value for money and expect a return, if it doesn’t they might snatch the new crown-jewel or anticipate to get perks from the state. If that is some sort of trade-off or licenses to extract mineral resources or even minor taxation like toll-roads, where the piece of cash will be sent to Beijing and not the capitol of the country where the road is built. That is how these people operate. They are not in it to play or be giving, but gain advantage and have the upper-hand.

This can be shown by what the State Media in China writes in Xinhua Net wrote today and what a CARI report on the same funds are saying. The Chinese portray the funding as investments on the Continent, as the funds are most likely pushed as loans, which burdens the states and that they have to repay. Loans are not given, but issued because of lack of direct funds to build those infrastructure and investments done. So, what I am saying isn’t mere speculation, but a narrative that has to sink in.

Chinese Investments:

China’s investments into Africa surged by more than 100 times from 2000 to 2017. In the past three years, annual Chinese direct investment into Africa was about 3 billion dollars on average. By the end of 2017, China’s investments of all kinds into Africa totaled 100 billion dollars, covering almost every country on the continent” (Li Xia – ‘Facts & Figures: China-Africa ties: cooperation for shared future’ 02.09.2018 link: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/02/c_137438845.htm).

Chinese Loans:

From 2000 to 2017, the Chinese government, banks and contractors extended US $136 billion in loans to African governments and their state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Angola is the top recipient of Chinese loans, with $42.2 billion disbursed over 17 years. Chinese loan finance is varied. Some government loans qualify as “official development aid.” But other Chinese loans are export credits, suppliers’ credits, or commercial, not concessional in nature. China is not Africa’s largest “donor”” (China Africa Research Initiative – ‘DATA: CHINESE LOANS TO AFRICA’ Version 1.1 August 2018).

They might try to conceal the reality, just like make-up is used on the face to fade the age or even marks that shows stress or pimples. However, the Chinese cannot be able to lie about their intent. They would not offer these sums of cash, without expecting a turnover or even profits. The Chinese wouldn’t allow all these billions of US Dollars spent on these nations to be spoiled and lost on the streets of Lome, Harare, Addis Ababa or Nairobi. They anticipate a return on the loans, either straight cash or getting pieces of the built infrastructure to advance the value of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

That the Heads of State in Africa should be concerned as they are getting in debt traps, instead of being in cycle of positive growth, they are getting new loans to pay the old ones. They are using the same creditor to secure new loans on top of the old-debt. That is how it will continue, until a point where they cannot pay the defaulted debt and the Chinese would then come to snatch something of value to recoup the failing debt. Because they don’t want to write-off the big money without having anything in return. That is what the Chinese has done in Sri Lanka and might start elsewhere. There might be soon more control of port in Djibouti or railroad of Kenya, even the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway line too. As they want their value of money.

They might be all smiles and photo-ops in Beijing these days, the smiles and added loans to dozens of countries. The added “investments” and deals struck, but the Chinese will not do so without getting something in return. To think otherwise, is to be naive and think they don’t have an agenda by doing it.

There is nothing like a free-lunch and the people will learn that, the Heads of State will not directly pay the debt, but the states will do so. Maybe not in this decade or next 5 years, but sooner or later. The bill for the coffee and biscuit will come. Than it is all eaten, but tab still has to be cleared. Peace.

Somalia: Statement on President Farmaajo’s Call to Lift UN Sanctions on Eritrea (02.08.2018)

Ambassade de la Republique de Djibouti en Somalie: Press Release rebuffing Somalia position on lifting the sanctions on Eritrea (01.08.2018)

Eritrea-Somalia Joint Declaration on Brotherly Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation (30.07.2018)

Djibouti: President Doualeh letter to UN Secretary Gutteres on “Djibouti-Eritrea territorial dispute and ask for mediation between both nations” (11.07.2018

Ethiopia-Eritrea: Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed letter to President Isaias Afwerki – “thank you”