Opinion: Brexit was bound to fail [and the results are now coming in]

The referendum of withdrawal from the European Union (EU) of 2016 settled the score and made it possible for the Conservative Party (Tories) to launch their campaign and gain majority of the Parliament. In such a manner, that they have had two Prime Ministers and had a long hurdle to come to terms with the EU on how to leave.

After long negotiations and plenty of delay. The final “Brexit Day” was enforced on the 31st January 2020. So, with the months that has gone and with the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in combination with the talks between London and Brussels. There is no end to this and the effects of the matter is no obvious for everyone to see.

The ones that was Remainer and was on the side to stay in the Union is now vindicated. As it is more “red-tape” and the Brexit Agreement isn’t making things easier. There been conflict over fishing rights with France. Fish and Sea-Food have rotted in port, instead of being exported to the mainland Europe from Scotland. Imports has slowed down, hauliers stopping deliveries to the UK and foreign workers to many fields are lacking. With all of this in mind. It is not a success, but a brutal and self-inflicted suffering.

Brexit was bound fail. The utter total failure was anticipated by plenty and it’s now evident. The Brexiteers should also reflect on it. They should man-up and see the results as they are. The possible use of army to get food delivered across the Kingdom. That should say it all. As the importers are not getting their products in time and neither able to secure the delivery from the exports to Britain.

UK becoming a ‘Third County’ isn’t giving it vast freedoms. Yes, the UK could make trade-deals with Australia and Kenya. However, the major trading partners with the EU and near proximity is harden. Not like there been any good industrial news or set-up of factories. Neither, hasn’t there been news of exceptional growth.

The supply-chains have been like this for one simple reason. The UK is out of the Single-Market and there is added bureaucracy and checks on goods passing through the borders. There is need for more documents and hurdles before passing has hurt the Kingdom. That is easy reasons to see why supermarkets run out of goods. Restaurant-chains are running out of main products and cannot serve customers. Other type of goods are lacking too and if that is with the imports. How dire is the situation for the exporters?

We knew earlier in the year that the exports was hit hard. They we’re not able to send produce, sea-food and others on time. The companies was losing money and their assets was rotting in ports. With this knowledge, the same hardship is now hitting home. Not only that the British Sea-Shells and other sea-food isn’t served in Paris anymore. At least not at the scale or in such a manner, which it was in the past.

The ones pledging for this and had their way. Should stand astute and bravely say: “We were wrong and crippled our economy. We fought for freedom, but instead being left alone. Brexit was supposed to give us new profitable terms, but it hasn’t and we lost. That’s why we have to see, if we can negotiate or find new ways of getting into the Single-Market and the Customs Union. As we are now a third country with little to no say. We have to change this and we are sorry for promising the world and not even giving you chicken at Nando’s”. Peace.

Brexit: “Operation Yellowhammer” is in full effect with the Army drive for the supermarkets

Certainly, some should feel a bit vindicated these days. Especially the Remainers who campaigned for “Project Fear” which was so scrutinized and called a blame-game of a worse scenario. The last few weeks has really shown the consequences of the Brexit. A Brexit that the Conservative and Tories promised to be easy and without any real costs.

However, everyone in their right mind knows that a divorce on this scale would cost. The marriage had to end and the transactions after this would be made more difficult. The Tories haven’t made things smooth or better. The rules and regulations between the United Kingdom and European Union is hectic. Several of companies and hauliers have stopped trading with the UK. This is now costing and showing results in the supermarkets across the Kingdom. That is not shocking, but was inevitable.

The Project Yellowhammer and Worst Case Scenario of August 2019 is now playing out. Where there was talks and projected to have disruptions of food supplies and across the supply chain. That was described there and clearly it is evident now.

The recent news says it all:

The Army has been put on standby to deliver supplies to supermarkets as Britain faces a shortage of 100,000 truck drivers. Around 2,000 personnel who are qualified HGV drivers are believed to be on a five-day notice to help distribute food and essentials including medicine. The Government is set to make a formal plea to the military for help ‘imminently’, with members of the Royal Logistics Corps and other regiments expected to be called upon by the end of September” (Siba Jackson – ‘Army ‘on standby’ to deliver food amid shortage of lorry drivers’ 08.08.2021, Metro.co.uk).

You know Brexit is a lose-lose enterprise when the businesses and the supermarkets needs the army to salvage the supply chain. The Tories and the government have failed the businesses and the consumers i.e. the citizens. They have told stories which wasn’t true.

All of the promises of a easy and simple transition is clearly out of the window. The reality is here now and the UK has to face it. The Tories got to find measures, means and possible way out of it. The soldiers and the ones who conscript to the army shouldn’t drive produce to Tesco or pick up lorries in Dover. That is just a failure if there ever was one.

This is just proving the pointers of the Remainers ahead of the referendum. The Brexiteers who promised so blatantly and wrongly that this would be a neat process. They should all take the mantle and configure this out. Since they are the ones who made it happen and ensure everyone that the basics are in order. Because, when the supermarkets and the convenient stores are running out of goods. You know you are in trouble.

There was plenty of folks who knew the Brexit and the new bureaucratic hurdles would cost, take time and stifle the logistics from Europe to the United Kingdom. The ones who has to import or export is paying the price. There has already been fish rotting in the ports and not getting through the system before they are expired. Therefore, the Brexit has destroyed businesses and ensured many are harder daily life.

The Tories especially, the wing of the Brexiteers has to take accountability. They need to fix this and not just settle with the army on standby. That is a show of weakness and that they totally failed. The Brexit isn’t a success, but a abomination of a government policy. It is a train-wreck and an insult to citizens. They sold a story of gold, but not everything that is shimmering is that. The Brexiteers sold fools-gold and a small majority believed it.

Now, everyone has to pay the price for it and surely nobody wants to hear it. Since it is visible and the HM Government haven’t got the qualified or the ability to figure this one out. The inept and corrupt government will not have the skills or the mindset to fix this. They will only make another circus and hope no-one see the real problems. Peace.

Brexit: Will the Tories tap-out the Bottled Water Industry?

The UK currently has 86 recognised sources which can be used to bottle mineral water and they are located in 61 locations across the country, from St Ives in Cornwall to the remote Northmaven peninsula in the Shetland Islands. Although it is difficult to find out how much this type of bottled water is worth in the UK, it is estimated that the total worth of the sector is £2.7 billion” (Alexandre Nobajas – ‘HOW BREXIT COULD DRAIN BRITAIN’S BOTTLED MINERAL WATER INDUSTRY DRY’ 21.02.2021, Keely University).

The recent letter from 14 Members of Parliament from the Tories are really telling. They have over the weekend on the 27th February 2021 prosed a “Bottled Water” Ban across the Channel. Do a trade-war-esque move. They sent this to Lord Frost, the newly appointed Brexit Minister and Chief Negotiator with the European Union. It is deliberate act to show some force in concern with the hurting shellfish industry.

However, the United Kingdom and Tories could easily see the ramification of leaving the EU. They could have studied and known what happens to trading parties who becomes a third country. What happens to certain industries and how these operates in concern to Brussels. Still, the Tories didn’t think of this, even if they were warned by industry ahead of the withdrawal. Because, the principals was more important than the reality on the ground.

The same is here with the Water Bottle Industry too. The Mineral Water and Distilled Water will hurt a billion pound industry. A industry with mostly rural bottlers will be hit by this. Just like rural producers and fisheries who made shellfish. If the Tories block EU Bottle Water like Evian. Who believes Brussels will care about bottled water from Scotland or Wales?

They will be banned entry too. The EU will not allow their own industries has a disadvantage. The member-states will not allow bottles entering from Wales to compete with French bottled waters in the Netherlands, but not being allowed to sell bottled water in London. That will not happen and the EU will strike back at London.

Therefore, if Lord Frost and the Tories are doing this. Then they will put the smaller bottlers dry. These who sells a lot of their stocks of bottled water to Europe will loose their profits and possible export market. That is just the reality here.

The European counterparts has a huge market to survive in anyway. They can compete there and get it through all of their member-states. The European Common-market is big enough for the producers. Yes, it is a loss to not sell in the UK, but that will not damage the bottled water industry at such an extent.

The rural bottlers in the UK will most likely have much more to loose, than the European exporters to the UK. Even if the Tories believes differently… the EU will not change their common-market rules and the UK as a third country have to comply. The bottled water industry is yet another looser, if the UK pulls this stunt.

The bottlers in Scotland and Wales will loose vital markets and the Tories will destroy another industry. That will make these water-wells run dry. If not they have to make the British drink more bottled water, instead of drinking it directly from the tap. Peace.

Brexit: The Tories knew shellfish exports would be troublesome

Deepdock director James Wilson said that the consequences of this are that when the UK leaves the EU, we become a third country, and so are no longer considered to be immediately compliant with single-market requirements. The single-market issue – part of the suite of so-called non-tariff barriers to future trade – is likely to be the largest disruptive influence on the flow of trade from the UK into the EU” (…) “He said they had been concerned since the referendum result, and had engaged with the UK and Welsh governments throughout this period. They had expressed concern to the Welsh government, DEFRA and the Food Standards Agency (FSA) many times, but had been told, “It will be fine.” The administrations finally acknowledged that there was a problem more than a week after the original 29 March Brexit deadline. “We were floored by the news,” said James Wilson” (Tim Oliver – ‘EU mussel exports threat’ 20.05.2019, Fishing News).

The Conservative Party and Her Majesties Government in London seems baffled. They seems rattled and shocked that the Brexit has consequences. It seems like they thought it would be easier and less hurdles. However, with the Withdrawal Agreement and Trade Agreement in place. They are out of the Single Market with the European Union (EU) and that affects trading between the UK and the EU.

Now, that the fish is rotting from the head. We are now just over a month into the new game-changer. The lovely days of being a Third Country. The effects and touches of being outside is happening. The businesses are being touched and the exporters are feeling a whiff of new paperwork to issue before sending cargo across borders. The UK exporting businesses has been hit and non other then the fisheries.

The Fisheries which was so important. One part of the fisheries are the fish-farms and the ones selling shellfish or mussels. These are being transported fresh or frozen from rural areas across the UK to the European Union (EU). That was being done for years, but things changed when the UK turned into a “third country” as there are new obstacles for this industry as a whole. When you go into “Online Trade Tariff” on GOV.UK you can check the various of mussels, but there is no export measure between the markets in place of 8th February 2021.

That is why its really outrageous that Tories think they could be selfish and not follow their trading partners standards, which is pre-fixed with their agreement. That seems lost on the likes of George Eustice and the Tories who blames the EU for having regulations for “Third Country” nations. Alas, a worry that they was warned about from the producers, which they told “it will be fine”. Which by today is proven it is not.

Paul Armstrong reports: “A leaked email to the website Politics Home showed that The European Commission last month wrote to the UK shellfish industry informing it that un-purified oysters, mussels, clams, cockles and scallops caught in those waters were banned from the EU indefinitely since the UK left the Brexit transition period on New Year’s Eve” (…) “Martin Laity director of Sailor’s Creek Shellfish in Flushing says the news sounds the death knell for his business and the 52 fishermen and women he had to lay off over at the beginning of the year because of Brexit” (Paul Armstrong – ‘Oyster fisherman Fal Estuary EU shellfish ban’ 07.02.2021, Failmouth Packet).

The businesses is already hurting and its proven to be so. The EU isn’t selfish… but the UK wasn’t ready for the boundaries of the shellfish. The UK should have been prepared for the obstacles and the issues with becoming a “third country”. They are not apart of the single market anymore and has to comply to other rules. That is the reality of it all.

The UK is now a fish out of water. It is really struggling to comprehend the new reality and thinking they are special. However, the UK have to follow the regulations and standards, which is now operative from 1st January 2021. It seems like they thought things would be like before. Nevertheless, they had the warnings… but they didn’t listen to the industry itself.

The Tories knew and they was getting words from the industry. Still they didn’t comply or consider the implications of the Brexit. Now its a reality … and the shellfish is rotting in the port. Because of the arrogance of Whitehall and the Tories itself. Who knew that this could happen, but now want to through a hissy fit at the European Commission for not preparing properly for the shellfish industry. That is why they in a sea of trouble…. Peace.

Opinion: UK – Why be apart of Europe (EU) when the water is bluer in the Pacific (CPTPP)?

The United Kingdom is really a special breed and the Tories leadership is something else. After all the years of tussling and muffling the transition and the negotiations with the European Union (EU). Which be recent reports will be a steady affair for 50 years. The government of United Kingdom (UK) have now opted for a new “union” or Free-Trade Agreement.

The UK had the most beneficial and biggest trade deal with the common market in the European Union with all of its member states and EEA. However, that has been dismissed, as they have the new Withdrawal Agreement and non-membership, which was so important for the Tories to set in action. They wanted to get out so they could have their own agreements, deals and not be bound by Brussels. However, the ending of common market with the EU have caused its trouble. There are problems with logistics, forms and declarations of produce/products across from Europe to the United Kingdom. Still, in the midst of that.

The Tories have a new idea. The Tories are joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Where the negotiations are starting this year to be a part of the Free Trade Agreement between 11 nations. These are: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.

Clearly, the UK ditched the simple trading across the bay. Instead of getting things to the Low Countries, France and Italy. Heck even Germany, Polen and the Czech Republic. Why not try to send Yorkshire tea easier to the Kingdom of Brunei?

By all means, any trade deal is a good deal for a nation. However, every nation and every kingdom tends to trade most with their neighbours. That is a historical fact for most nations. They tend to have most common with the nations right beside it. Surely, it is should be easier to sell something from London to Dublin. Instead in this case it will be easier sell something from Bristol to Auckland and that is insane. But, that is the Tories in a nutshell.

It is nuts and bonkers that the ones screaming to leave one thing is signing up this quickly. That they are moving over to another project that easily. Yes, there might be less stings attached, but on the other hand. The UK had a good hand, but they spoilt it by leaving. The Tories and the UK could have had more influence and used their buying power in the Union, but instead they couldn’t care less.

Now, they rather go on the deep dive in the pacific. Instead of just across the British channel. That is just weird. That say it all about the leadership in Downing Street and at Whitehall. That they have these ideas and think it can ease the pain. Yes, they will get sales and get trading going on in the pacific. However, how will that be substantial in comparison to what you used to have with the European Union?

It is not like these sort of arrangements and logistically is easily accessible. The CPTPP will be a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) but at what cost?

The EU have by comparison 43% of the World Trade. While the CPTPP have 14% of it. Yes, it is a substantial part of the world trade in the CPTPP. Nevertheless, the UK haven’t shot the silver bullet here. It is like they just trying to patch the hurt and make it sound splendid. Even though deep down… they know they lost out of chance of a lifetime and they are afraid of turning back.

That is why the deep blue sea of the Pacific seems so refreshing compared to crossing over the familiar channel from Folkestone to Calais. Peace.

Brexit: Rees-Mogg’s Red Herring

Key thing is we’ve got our fish back. They’re now British fish and they’re better and happier fish for it”Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (14.01.2021)

Today in Parliament, the Tories and especially Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg got on the defensive. As the Tories and the whole United Kingdom is starting to feel the effects of leaving the European Union (EU) and the hurdles the new Withdrawal Agreement puts in place. All these significant hurdles are passed onto the consumer and the exporters. The ones that was promised less red-tape and more “control”. Alas, that was all a lie from the Brexiteers, as they call it fear-mongering.

However, in the month of January, only mere weeks into the Brexit finalization and becoming a third country. The businesses, the fisheries and other companies are feeling the “new normal”. Already on the 7th January 2021 Seafood Scotland came out with a statement saying: “Scottish seafood exporters hit by a ‘perfect storm’. Where they explained it further: “It problems in France meant consignments were diverted from Boulogne sur Mer to Dunkirk, which was unprepared as it wasn’t supposed to be at export frontline”. The organization continues to say: “In a very short time we could see the destruction of a centuries old market which contributes significantly to the Scottish economy”.

So, just by wording a few sentences from Seafood Scotland. The fish doesn’t seem more happy by becoming pure “British”. I am sure that the Tories is having a “Finding Nemo” moment. As the lies and deception isn’t helping the fishing industry nor their new trouble to get seafood exported. The government wasn’t prepared for the new form of export and neither the possible cost. Therefore, the British seafood either got dumped or destroyed before it got to the European markets.

The Tories and Rees-Mogg can act a fool. However, he should stop the red herring. He knows perfectly well that the government released nearly right before the Agreement went into play on the 1st January 2021. They released new guidelines and proved how businesses could operate with examples on the 31st December 2020. So, it was not like the Seafood Industry was prepared and neither was the state.

Yes, you have gotten the fish back, but what value does it add if it ends up in the bin and not somebody’s table? That is waste and destruction of good wholesome produce, which is destroyed by some red-tape, which this government through agreements have made. Therefore, Brexit is causing more harm and more troubles then the industry could foresee. They we’re not warned in time and neither did the Tories give additional training to its border officers to secure every consignment.

That is why the statement of Rees-Mogg shows his arrogance, as he will not take responsibility for the damage caused. He wants to put a British Flag on the Fish, but he will not make sure it becomes Fish and Chips. No, he wants fish dead out of whatever and sing the national anthem to it. That is foolish and so is his pride. Instead, of taking accountability and finding measures. He wants patriotism to save the fish. That is really ridiculous and shows that his a proper hob-nob.

The Tories didn’t care about the fisheries or the fishing industry. They just used them as tool for their ends. That is why it’s not biting now and the fishermen isn’t catching a break. No, they are catching their fish and preparing it for shipment, but the government isn’t giving them the tools to secure the vessel to next port. No, they either blocking it or standing them at sea with nowhere to go. That is the sick reality here.

Maybe, the Scots to package the fish in the Union Jack and send the rotting fish directly to Rees-Mogg office. So, he could taste and smell his own medicine. The side-product of his politicking together with fellow Brexiteers. As his not personally hit by this, but him and others created the ‘Perfect Storm’. Therefore, he as one of the responsible for it. That he should taste some of the “British Fish” who got lost in red-tape and is now ready for a landfill. Peace.

Brexit: Scottish seafood exporters hit by ‘perfect storm’ of Brexit disruption (07.01.2021)

Brexit: UK as a Third County have a new customs regime [and it has consequences for trading too]

The United Kingdom government unleashed the case studies for Border Operating Model for Controlled Goods. Meaning all sort of goods that is going from one trading block to another one. One type of goods going from one customs union to another. Now that from today… the United Kingdom is separated from the European Union. There is whole new levels of red-tape.

The leaflet called ‘ The GB/EU Border – Case Studies – The Border with the European Union’ made by the Border and Protocol Delivery Group. This came out yesterday on the 31st December 2020 and would be valid from 1st January 2021. The government little to no time to prepare the various of industries, exporters or importers of the new factors. Neither party could be prepared for this. As companies on both sides of the Channel couldn’t be prepared for all of this.

Either industry will have their needed paperwork. As the ones importing/exporting have to ensure that the hauliers, exporter and importer are all working together to secure the whole process.

The main deal now is that the ones doing these sort of businesses are:

GB EORI number

EU EORI number (if you are conducting any EU customs processes)

Customs declarations for both imports and exports

UK and EU safety and security declarations

Rules of Origin (the FTA confirms that no tariffs or quotas will apply on goods that qualify)

Sanitary and phytosanitary controls

International convention requirements – such as those under the Common Transit Convention (CTC)

If that sounds easy… it is not. The new system is very hectic and a new bureaucracy to follow. The ones moving goods and transporting it. They have a new world to live and abide by. The expenses of this additional steps will be put on the consumer and the citizens themselves. There will also be less trading between the parties. As the ones who can avoid these steps and trade within the European Union will do so as well. While the ones who has too. Got to sweeten the deals to become viable. Especially trading from the UK into EU. The ones from EU to UK will be more pricey, as the hauliers and importers needs bigger margins to cover the costs of importing.

For instance before the Whiskey has left Scotland and gotten to Brussels it got 12 steps to get there. Where all the various of entities along the way needs the right paperwork to get processed to be allowed to enter and do the initial trade of the whiskey itself. Not only does the EU importer needs to have the right documentation and secure the right paperwork. So does the trader within the UK. These both needs to certify and secure the documentation. So, that the transporter and freight Company is secured. Also ensure that process is righteous before a carrier oversees the discharge from the UK market into the EU. This is an transaction where both ports of entry have to be signed off. That means the port of departure and entry needs to verified before importer of Scotch Whiskey can get its order in Brussels. This here will make it more costly and a hassle to import it.

If the Brexiteers and the ones supporting the enterprise promised less red-tape. This whole case study leaflet proves them otherwise. Every single industry and exporters has much more hassle and paperwork to fix. The same the ones importing from Europe. This will all be stressing and cause delay of goods transferred between the parties in question.

It is just a matter of time before the Brexiteers feels this. Especially, the ones who promised seemingly no consequences what so ever for leaving the EU. Peace.

Brexit: The European Research Group’s Legal Advisory Committee – Opinion on the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (29.12.2020)

Brexit: 31st January 2020 is the final Brexit day for now

Well, this are not yet finished. There are dozens of problems ahead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet. It is not like Tories have won or succeeded anything. The possible reactions or results of the end of membership with the European Union (EU) isn’t carved out yet. Hell, even the issues of trade, border patrol, fishing nor the Northern Ireland questions are finalized.

The celebration of a new penny on the 31st January 2020 is a mockery, but also pointless. The Tories haven’t bagged it. They are not packing their briefcases and securing their tickets for the destination. Yes, the final Withdrawal Agreement was voted for and the next stage of Brexit is happening. However, the possible outcomes are from sealed. The ink isn’t even dry on the paperwork.

Who knows what the businesses will do, when the borders are shut and the hardships of trading across the Channel hits the fan. Who knows what will happen when the costs of banking and City of London comes across. It is not like the Tories can get it any harder. Not like they are getting the best deals and not getting issues from across the pond.

The PM will not address this and will rather deflect this. Surely, the industries and the ones whose exporting products will be hit the hardest. There are no certainty, the ones moving are already templating it or has already left. Several of businesses has moved to Ireland, France and Germany as a result of Brexit.

That is why, the projected downturns aren’t far fetched and the possible projections of the Withdrawal Agreement are bleak too. Not like this will not be a big natural hit on the consumer, the public and on the possible revenue of the state. However, the Tories will celebrate the end of Brexit. Loosing influence in Europe and become the “independent” island it is. Nevertheless, they still want to trade and be a partner, but not married to it. See how that will go and what cost that may bring.

This Brexit has been shambles from the Referendum until today. Not like Theresa May did it well. Neither has Boris Johnson. Boris is more superficial and conning, while May wobbled ahead. None of them is winning this. We just have to see if Boris will loose more. He won a mandate in Parliament, but if the wrecks the economy and beats the living hell out of the ones giving him a majority. He will surely be remembered for utter destruction on his own. Instead of finding good ways out of it.

He had nice times in his Jaguar. Nice time with screaming matches with his girlfriend. Mocking Corbyn in the PMQ. But what does that matter, when the public will be self-inflicted by dodgy deals and shoddy political work from the core group of people in Whitehall and Downing Street.

Who knows what this will entail, what sort of tariffs, regulations and the initial costs, who will be damaged, scorned by this deal and at what end has it?

I don’t have the answer, but by all reports, all studies with some barren I have come across. The negatives outshines the victories. Its like celebrating the French Fries, when you got a juicy burger sitting right there. By all means, the French Fries are a neatly cut potato with right amount of salt and oil. However, the burger is fresh breaded bun, with lettuce, ketchup and a barbecued patty. It should be easy choice.

So, on the 31st January, the ones celebrating are the ignorant, the ones who doesn’t care about the consequences, but are enjoying a break with Europe. The ones in sorrow, are not necessarily in support of the EU, but the ones that wonder if they are losing the benefits or the trade-offs made by the Union. Which the UK are now loosing out off. They got to bargain and leverage itself with everyone as a single entity. They got to do the right and at the right price. However, that will take time and the UK doesn’t have that. Especially, if they plan to cover the lost base and the lost power within the EU.

So in a few days time. The next chapter of negotiations start. The UK will have to fight and battle, they are not through yet. It is now all damage control. We got to see, if the EU citizens in the UK will get rights to stay or if they have to leave. We got to see, if the Northern Ireland will be hurt by this. That we will only with time.

However, what we do know … is that the UK is self-inflicting harm. They are doing damage to itself and hurting itself. We just got to see how it will be and by what estimates. Peace.