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Archive for the tag “Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile”

Uganda: Fresh report states that the debt-service has grown 129% within one financial year!

 

The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.

In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.

Just look!

“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)

“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)

“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)

You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.

Reference:

NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda

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OTT Tax: Totally failed its supposed revenue targets in 2018!

Today, the Uganda Communication Commission released their annual sector performance report of July 2019. It was really a bit funny look, as the state, the President and all of his handlers said the Over-The-Top Services would create a tax-base and revenue, which would benefit the state. That is why Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) had set up targets to streamline these new taxes.

I will show more of the fun and explain, as the UCC report really shows how malfunction and lack of due diligence hurt. But first a previous calculation, which was stated to the media. To show how much lack of tax-base the OTT had in 2018, as it was implemented in July and keeps pushing to this date.

Look:

Daily Monitor Reports: “Government collected Shs20.5b from social media in the last quarter ended September, according to data obtained from Uganda Revenue Authority. The tax, which was implemented in July, was however, less than the Shs24.9b target that URA had hoped to collect in the period. URA has a monthly target of Shs8.3b. The tax was introduced in the Excise Duty amendments of financial year 2018/19 requiring all social media users to pay Shs200 per day, before accessing certain platforms such as Facebook, Whatsapp and Twitter, among others. Government intends to collect about Shs100b before the end of the 2018/19 financial year” (Christine Kasemiire – ‘OTT raises Shs20b in first quarter, URA fails on targets’ 07.11.2018).

Let’s first do the math, accordingly, as the URA monthly target is 8,3bn shillings in revenue, every single month. A quarter of a Financial Year is 4 months. In today’s UCC report, it shows the numbers for the Q3 and Q4 of 2018. Which means, that states revenue from July-September and October-December in the previous years. By these standards its 8,3bn X3 to get the supposed of any given Q. That is 24,9bn shillings is estimated to earn per quarter.

However, the UCC report states that in the Q3, the revenue was 12,696,558,400 or 12,6bn shillings which is only about half of the anticipated revenue. The final quarter or Q4 isn’t much better:12,952,833,800 or 12,9bn shillings. Of the estimated earnings, the state is nearly able to gain about half of its target. The market and the consumers are not contributing or using the phones as much as they thought. What is striking if you combine the two quarters of revenue is that the state earned approximately 25,5bn shillings, which is sadly just above one quarter estimate of the URA in supposed revenue on this tax. The estimated earnings of the period would be about 49,8bn and this shows the state managed a deficit of about 24,3bn shillings. That is about on quarters earning not happening at all. Thats a giant shortfall of cash and the URA/UCC needs to explain the Ministry of Finance this one, because this a major loss of promised funding for the state.  

This shows how failed this tax is and what a waste of enforcement and making the tax in its first place. This isn’t fun and games, but a way of misusing power to tax people, just because you find something obnoxious. That is how it seems, since the President want to stop the gossip online and such. Stop spreading of information and ensure that poorest cannot afford to get online and use the OTT services. Because, that what this tax does. Peace.

Uganda Peoples Congress: Caution on Coffee Bill (17.07.2019)

Opinion: BoU and UTL share the same sins, just different institutions

We can lie to ourselves, we all do it now and then, and even the most holy of us does it, but acts like saints. Nevertheless, the realities are hard-hitting and not as people tend it too be. In the recent days, there been steady scandals in two institutions connected to the government of Uganda. This being the Bank of Uganda and Uganda Telecom Limited. Both whose place is vital and both under “ownership” of the state.

They have very different roles in society, as one is the Reserve Bank and the one that follows direct guidelines of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development, while the same Ministry owns the other! That is why there are some of the same aspects, as the stories are pouring out.

The BoU is rocked by lack of due diligence, lack of minutes, lack of working after protocol and procurement. The UTL is lacking leadership, lacking structure or even basic control from the state. Both is run by the MoFPED and still has the same issues. It is like they are two ugly siblings and none of these bastards can get a date.

The BoU is the epitome of corrupt behaviour from buying pens, securing quick-fix funds for trading commercial banks and so on. While the UTL have shady-back-door deals with willy-nilly abroad in Mauritius or Nigeria, even some skeletons in Libya. Still, even if Hon. Evelyn Anite tries every avenue and use all parts of the dictionary, she still doesn’t have the powers to sack the ones running UTL, because the MoFPED is involved and who knows how the President Museveni micromanages these state owned enterprises. Since his known for guidance everywhere in the Republic. That is why Hon. Anite had to send a letter to him to further her cause in the UTL saga.

We can lie to ourselves, but not that it does any good. At this point, the involvement of the state, the known actors and only the small-fries are getting caught. The ones doing the heist, doing the handshakes and getting the kick-backs from there is working directly with the State House. That is well known and not unknown, they even ask permission before doing so. This is what they do. Its only the ones who doesn’t ask who ends in the files of various departments fighting corruption. Even if they end up there, they might lose the paperwork or minutes before investigation, as the loyal subjects clear the house. So, that the big-man on top, doesn’t get humiliated.

This is just what is up and what is going down. These men who runs these SOEs are allowed to what they do, because the higher power let them do it and they are all eating. Especially, when the “high above” sanctions it, its all cool, but if he doesn’t get a cut; than there is an issue and someone have to pay. That is the end-game, that is why it continues and why it floats like this. Not because this is a healthy practice or even a way that the state should govern, but this is what they are known to do.

The UTL and BoU have similar issues, they are doing similar acts, but with different enterprises. We can act a fool, but that will still not save the face of the ones running it. Sooner or later, someone will fall on the sword of their master. Right now its not needed, but when these two institutions needs a boost of confidence, someone will swallow their pride and do their last act of mercy. That is just how it goes. We just don’t know who will fall and for what cause, other than saving the high above from humiliation. Peace.

Bank of Uganda Scandal: Printing lies and printing money!

Well, we are at this point and time, where the printing company have back dropped their information to the public. As well, as the ones in charge of spin control in the state, this being Uganda Media Centre, as well, as the Police Force itself plus internal statements from the Bank of Uganda.

While the Directors are under scrutiny, the spin is out of bound and showing that they are trying to deceive. That the Bank of Uganda had a scheme going on with the shipment of bank-notes, where the high ranking officials could eat of the spoils, but somewhere, somebody tipped the authorities off. Because someone didn’t get their cut.

That is why the state and Bank of Uganda is trying to back peddle it, while the State House, CMI and others are investigating the efforts of transporting the extra consignment of notes. The billions upon billions of extra funds.

We know there was a scheme and that it wasn’t supposed to get to the headlines, that they wasn’t supposed to fight over notes in mattresses, neither fight over blame either. The Bank was supposed to get these, share the spoils and move along like nothing. That is why the spokesperson for the government pins blame on police, while the Bank says its nothing and the Police says its investigating it. While the new Unit in State House confirms the raid on the bank. Surely, it is all a mess, as the institution and the state itself cannot configure the story, nor the procurement of the extra consigned notes. It is like a gift that keeps giving.

We know now that someone ordered extra notes from Europe. Someone had arranged it to happen, the planes with the notes was scheduled and the transfer was already made by the officials in the bank. The State let it happen and let it even come through customs. The state let the BoU do this and didn’t stop it. Until someone tipped off State House, as off they weren’t properly informed or getting their cut. Therefore, they had to cut it off and send a sign, that they are supposed to be informed of this and get their piece of the action.

That is why the Bank was early stating it was negotiating with the authorities, that it wasn’t a raid, even if the State House, CMI and others claimed it was. We can surely see where this is going. This a badly written novel, even a badly written scheme of soldiers of fortune, of financial mercenaries who couldn’t even pocket the funds without ghosting the procurement. They had to leave breadcrumbs and leave traces of deception.

That is why the Bank, the Police and the Uganda Media Centre, all look like fools. The directors, the consignments and the delivery is all there. The ones who was supposed to earn on this was there too. The whole operation was in session and the class was about to start. But was pre-emptively stopped by the authorities and since then, the people looking at it cannot keep their stories straight.

Time will tell, but this is looking like a heist, smelling like a heist and acting like a heist. Even if they are trying to conceal it. Someone got hurt that they didn’t get their pieces of silver and had to blow the whistle. Now, the ugly truth of the operation is peeled off, layer by layer. Peace.

Another day, another Bank of Uganda Scandal!

The Bank of Uganda has had their magical pens, they have had their crazy foreclosure of Commerical Banks and now they are procuring and producing banknotes without proper function of the state. This is inside trading and kleptocracy to another level.

The Bank of Uganda is already showing their acts, as they didn’t minutes to closure of a bank and not even following protocol doing that. In the same regard, surely there was no minutes written when the high ranking officials fixed and gotten specialized transport plane filled with billions of Ugandan shillings in freshly minted banknotes.

We know this is a game been missing and sudden death is coming quickly. Because this is a rotten institution to the core. There been proof over a long time, but with every scandal, there are meat to the bone. It is ready for a stew or barbecue.

This bank has been like this under the Presidency, ever since the cross-over of the double digits in 1987 and cut of 30% for the clients using it. This is how they do. The Bank of Uganda is the reserves and the securities for the regime. They do not care how they clear their tab, but the bank will fix it.

If the public cannot trust the inner-circle of the Bank. Who can trust it? Since the BoU is supposed to be the institution that ensures the currency and the economy together with the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED). They are supposed to deliver what the state needs and secure the economy together. These two institutions are supposed to be the bricks to secure the foundation. Instead, we are questioning one, that breaks down the bridge of trust. So, there is no possibility of crossing that river.

The Bank of Uganda has again come into trouble. Not that its shocking, been a minute where the bank was off the hook. But now the state is trying to fix it without arresting the ones doing the illegal deeds. Surely, these people will be off the hook and off the books, just like their mission was supposed to be. For some reason, the state want to reveal it and surely to embarrass someone behind it. Don’t expect them to spend time behind bars, because these people are connected with the kitchen cabinet and the high above. Since, if the BoU was really in trouble, they wouldn’t have gotten away with their previously done deeds. Therefore, there is more behind closed doors, than what we know.

The Bank of Uganda is in another scandal. It is not strange. Its anticipated, this bank is made to the fortunate and the ones in the inner-circle. The rest just got to beg for mercy. As long as this regime is in power. This will not change, because this not profitable. But as long as it is… it will keep up and the leadership will continue. Since, the President trust them and knows they are carrying water for him. They are getting a cut for doing it too, as long as they are not telling the public.

That is why this latest is a leaked story to get rid of a inner-circle dude, who the leadership doesn’t like or trust. They feel he cannot be one of them and need him to humiliated. The President knows this, the Speaker knows this and the Parliament knows this too. However, they will not say it.

The Bank of Uganda is rocked by another scandal and its not shocking. What it was that it wasn’t bigger and more people getting a cut. It should have been more of the big-men connected with a piece of the trade-off. Because, they didn’t get it. They had to blow the whistle, then it wasn’t acceptable. Peace.

BoU Scandal: Speaker Rebecca Kadaga letter to PAC-Cosase Chairman on “Re: Re-opening the Investigation into the Bank of Uganda Closure of Commercial Banks by the Committee on Commissions State Authorities and State Enterprises” (10.06.2019)

Uganda: Press Statement – Justification of procurement of OTT services for Members of Parliament (16.05.2019)

BoU Scandal: AG Muwanga letter to Deputy Governor of BoU – “Special Audit on the UGX 479bn Injected into Crane Bank Limited by BoU” (04.04.2019)

Bank of Uganda: Monetary Policy Statement for April 2019 (01.04.2019)

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