EALA Elections: NRM wins 8 out of 9 [and DP get the final seat]

UPDATE: The elected EALA representatives and the votes attained.

Akol Rose Okullu 422

Namara Denis 415

Kakooza James 405

Odongo George Stephen 403

Paul Mwasa 401

Kadogo Babirye Veronica 383

Mugenyi Mary 367

Amongin Jacquiline 338

Siranda Gerald 233” (NilePost, 29.09.2022).

My prediction got hit with one seat in the East African Legislation Assembly (EALA) Members of Parliament (MP). The one I thought was a go was the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Fred Ebil. He didn’t get his seat and the UPC lost their seat in the EALA this period. Now, there is only National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Democratic Party (DP) who has EALA MPs in the 5th Assembly.

Today, the NRM got their 6 candidates, which was anticipated. They got in addition two more “independent” candidates. So, in the numbers they got 8 out of 9. Jacqueline Amongin is a member of the NRM and a Pan African Parliament (PAP) Member too. So, she has represented Uganda on a NRM ticket already. Now she ran as an “independent” but everyone should know that she is associated and a member of the NRM.

The second “independent” Babirye Veronica Kadogo was the Woman Representative in the 10th Parliament for the NRM in Buyende District. She lost her re-election bid in the General Election in 2021. She ran as an “independent” but certainly is connected to the NRM as well. To think otherwise is naive at this point.

That’s why it’s only Gerald Siranda who is from another party, the DP. The DP who had this in their agreement with the NRM. The DP-NRM Agreement had this stipulation and Siranda takes over the seat after two terms for Mbidde. Therefore, the DP gets a seat and an EALA MP.

While we saw a boycott from the National Unity Platform (NUP). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) had a candidate that was bound to loose. Justice Forum (JEEMA) also lost, which was also scheduled to happen, as it is associated with the NUP. However, the shocker was that UPC lost their seat and didn’t get Ebil elected. Especially, since the NRM was supposed to back the UPC with this seat, but that was hallow.

The opposition didn’t really loose much. They had nothing to get to begin with. The NRM was bound for a pyrrhic victory, but today was just a painful exercise. The Speaker decided to have an early poll before the deliberations in the plenary session. This is creating the possibility for “pre-ticked ballots” and open rigging. Which is just foolish, because the NRM got the majority in the 11th Parliament and this would be a walkover.

The ones that should feel betrayed is the UPC. They are surely not valued and isn’t getting real support. That is the party which has made agreements with the NRM. Now, their dialogue and such isn’t considered. That is saying something. We can see that Mao and DP got their way. However, the UPC was kicked out by NRM leaning “independent’s”. Peace.

Opinion: The EALA MPs race is already finished

The ones expecting any sort of shocks or sudden changes in the East African Legislative Assembly Members of Parliament (MP) race will be in a dire loss. The EALA MP race which is already scheduled will most likely be a settled affair already.

It is the MPs that elects them and the majority will go to the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The NRM has already 6 candidates or Flag-Bearers and you should expect all of them to be settled in. The Democratic Party (DP) will get one MP as that was signed off in the DP-NRM agreement, which was signed of earlier in the year. That means 6 of the 9 slots is already taken. Further, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should also get a candidate in for their loyalty and working relationship with NRM. That means 8 of the 9 MPs are already elected without much say. The last will be to a NRM leaning Independent and a “vetted” one like that. This is what you should expect and anything else would be weird at this point.

The NRM will have the majority and that is reflected in the NRM Caucus with their 6 Candidates. This is an easy pick and securing plum-jobs to former MPs and Ministers who has lost out. That’s why the EALA is a nice place for them to be put. When there is no parastatal or government entities to get appointed into. Therefore, the EALA is a well fitting place to do so.

The others are giving favourable and friendly parties of the Parliament a “shout-out” or “props” for their loyalty. They are getting a EALA MP slot and that’s why its easy to see the 6+2 or 8, which is al but missing 1 of the EALA MPs.

That Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is fielding a flag-bearer is futile. The same can be said about whoever the National Unity Platform (NUP) would pick or have in this role. The Justice Forum (JEEMA) has also a flag-bearer, but that person will not go nowhere either. As the JEEMA has been an ally of the People Power and the NUP. So, with that in mind these parties candidates will go nowhere. There is no way that the majority of the Parliament will give them way. They are really wasting their time and only playing into the procedural games of the state. Yes, they have a right to have a flag-bearer or a EALA MP candidate, but it’s totally pointless. The opposition could have the best man or woman. They could have the incarnated saviour of the planet and all souls. That person still wouldn’t have a chance, because the NRM has decided and there is no turning back.

The FDC, NUP and JEEMA has no chance here. They should just give up. The DP and UPC will get the other spots. There is little chances for the independent candidates in this race, if any. Yes there is a talk of 15 MP candidates, but as long as you don’t have suction or pre-arranged agreements. These shouldn’t expect much. They are fillers on a paper or if even that…

The ones believing this will be free and fair elections. I hate to say it’s partly sealed already. The only last seat is what is unknown. While that one will most likely go to a NRM leaning Independent and someone in favour of the NRM without being on it’s ticket. That meaning all of the 9 of 9 EALA MPs.

The ones thinking the FDC, NUP or JEEMA has a shot at this… well, I cannot see it happening. It isn’t like the NRM or the ones in power has allowed that before. No, they rather see their own there and no one else. The only reason why UPC and DP has a chance, is because of their working arrangements with the NRM. That’s why they are getting favour and office. Not because of their representation or the will of the people. No, it’s because of ceremonial reasons between the NRM and their allies. There is nothing else too this. Peace.

National Resistance Movement (NRM): Resolution of hte National Resistance Movement – Parliamentary Caucus (16.09.2022)

Opinion: First trade chickens before you establish a confederation …

Since the establishment of the East African Community (EAC) on the 30th November 1999 there been a promise of more integration and “open” borders between the member states. However, there has by the time and the promise been hurdles. Seemingly with time the EAC Partner States or Member States should have resolved these, but there seems to significant changes with every twist and turn.

This involves Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. They are part of it and has their place. The EAC is working on a Customs Union, Common Market, Monetary Union and the Political Federation/Confederation.

The last piece has moved further as the EAC secretariat is having a 14 day consultations in Uganda and drafting a EAC Political Federation Constitution. That will be vastly different than the treaty, which established the EAC in November 1999. The EAC haven’t even been able to create the other features promised in the EAC. How will it be able to create a confederacy? When it cannot even ensure common market and a customs union over all these years?

Rwanda has distrust with Burundi. Burundi has distrust with Rwanda. Rwanda and Uganda are distrusting each other. Kenya and Tanzania are having squabbles. Even Kenyan and Uganda are having trade-wars too. All of this are supposed to be settled and be water under the bridge. All the people are supposed to be humble and let bygones be bygones. Just forgetting about the issues and the diplomatic impasses, which haven’t been settled and cleared.

Justice Benjamin Odoki can believe in the Confederacy and establishing a Confederation. However, there are two many chickens who isn’t allowed to pass border points. There are to much milk wasted and fighting over ownership over islands on Lake Victoria to suddenly kiss and make up. There are so many hurdles which needs a resolve before even starting writing a constitution for a huge project like this.

Burundi wouldn’t even participate or be part of EAC Heads of State with Rwanda as the Chairman of the EAC of late. There so many possible conflicts and landmines, which if one person dances on that field. It would blow up right in your face.

In 2021 the EAC Confederacy seems like a dream. A dream Yoweri Museveni has had for years. However, it is not sustainable or viable when you cannot even set the bar or the standards for trading chickens across the EAC. When you are not able to trade milk or maize. There are just to many issues with the small offerings, before you take the whole house.

The EAC will go from being a regional intergovernmental organisation to a League of Nation with a Union of Sovereign States united for one purpose. The EAC would become similar to the European Union in East Africa. The EALA and EAC Head of State Summits would have more power and a bigger mandate. They would regulate the trading agreements and joint movement rules between all the member states. That is furthering the powers of today’s secretariat in Arusha.

The EAC needs to fix the spoils and the neighbourly spats which are happening in East Africa. Before they are bounding itself a bigger adventure. When it hasn’t fixed and ensured more flexible trading between the nations. How can it suddenly become a EU of the East Africa?

I don’t see that happening. The EAC needs to gets the ducks in a row or be able to trade chickens before it makes the EALA into the next European Parliament and configures its own European Commission. As it already has its Heads of State Summits, which is more a photo-op these days. Than a place of unity and pledges of furthering the integration of the partner states.

That’s why the EAC needs to swallow some chickens and drink some chai tea before it continues this journey. Peace.

Opinion: Mao is in a losing battle [even before he starts]

The Democratic Party President Norbert Mao seemed a little minute like they were not fielding a Presidential Candidate. This because the Electoral Commission didn’t have the candidate on the list. Just like other parties who was not on the listed to be verified and cleared. This is why it seemed like he wasn’t running.

Mao haven’t looked strong and his politicking ahead of the General Elections 2021. The Democratic Party looks more shallow and more of a side-show, than a well governed machine. This with a Party President in his third term.

The DP has already lost their trying out of DP Block or the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). These two combination have lost out. Mao have tried to become more important and a bigger star. However, it has fallen flat. He has lost his own MPs to both other opposition parties and to the National Resistance Movement (NRM).

Now, we have a sudden letter of intent from Mao and the DP Party. After everyone else have been open and vocal. It seems like he has waited as long as possible to unleash it. To make a flash in the pan.

Mao at this point has to battle the same moderates as Muntu. The thing is that Mao never have been directly challenged by a man like Muntu. They are in the same space and with similar behaviour. Mao have been out there on his own more than Muntu. However, Muntu is more respected and credible. Even if he will negotiate and have dialogue into oblivion, instead of actually make a change, which is needed asap.

Mao is neither ruthless or brash. Neither does he has the finesse or the ability to score high. The man has failed in two elections already. First in 2011 and totally abysmal in 2016. Now he returns for the third time and second time Presidential Candidate.

He has not seasoned like wine. Mao haven’t gotten better with the years. To be honest he was better in the early 2010st than he is now. It is like he has lost the spunk and the flair. Mao is running the same game and hoping it will give returns.

However, the main challenger isn’t Muntu, even if he is the man in the same space as Mao. Mao got to challenge Bobi Wine, which he cannot. The People Power Movement and National Unity Platform (NUP) have rocked the opposition. In a manner, which haven’t happen in a while. Besigye had popularity and people behind him. Bobi Wine has the same for this generation.

That is why Mao got nothing to give. His a lucky loser here. He will play, but will only loose. A nice mantle and fun games, but the cards he has is only good enough for bluff. As a Presidential Candidate in 2021 he can never win.

Mao could become someone in Gulu, even an MP representing Gulu. Nevertheless, he aims at the throne. A place where he got nothing to entertain and nothing to offer. Other than being a man who fights for the same secure space as Muntu.

Mao wants to be more. He wants to be the educated and wise brother. The former Guild President wants to be the elite and the modern nobility of the Republic. However, he got nothing to gain or to win. This is a losing battle, even before it starting.

It’s a tragicomedy and the main act is Norbert Mao himself. Peace.

Uganda Young Democrats: UYD Office Surveillance by Police (25.04.2019)

Opinion: Mao’s empty run for the President in 2021!

I don’t know if Norbert Mao sees it or not, if he thinks he is so viable and has the ability to garn the masses. He tried in 2011 and got about 150,000 votes. In 2016, he couldn’t even be fielded as an candidate for MP for the Gulu Municipality in Gulu District.

Now in 2019, he plans to run as a Presidential Flag Bearer for the Democratic Party (DP). Which is fine enough, surely he will get support of Abed Bwanika and other ones joining the team. Alas, they are not combined in strength to ever compete with regime of today.

If he would ever think he has the capacity now, to build momentum and challenge Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, he is terribly wrong. No one is, because the system is built either for him to win, as the crook or by the book. There is nowhere in between that gives space for Mao to strive. Neither, does he has the capacity to garn the masses or even sound like a strong opposition figure.

Mao in the last go around supported the The Democratic Alliance and its candidate Amama Mbabazi. Which wasn’t successful either, that is why his been a vocal voice on NBS Frontline, but not a leader with a purpose, as he is more disfranchising the opposition and his own party, then building something strong. As he has let Lord Mayor of Kampala, Erias Lukwago (People’s Government, Betty Nambooze (People’s Government), Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi (Minister of State for Youth and Children Affairs ) and Mukasa Mbidde (EALA MP) go along with either with the NRM Camp or whis fellow Opposition Kizza Besigye alternative People’s Government.

Therefore, he has not shown strength as a leader of his own flock, neither his own leaders nor MPs, who has shown character and joined sides. His not sanctioned the ones directly taking part of NRM functions and within the Cabinet. Only shown strong words against the ones who has chosen a defiant side to the current regime. Which is striking in itself. Since, as a supposed viable opposition, he should show finesse in these manners, but instead shown partisanship, by whom he attacks.

Do I believe that Mao has a shot to the throne? No, do I believe anyone has? No. Does Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine or Dr. Kizza Besigye, at this point no. They are candidates that are more viable and has a bigger voice. More reason behind them and more consistent with their supporters. Nevertheless, the system is built for Museveni, so it doesn’t matter who the Opposition fields. Because, the system is made for all the others to loose, and for the incumbent of 1986 to win again.

So, even as Mao is now saying his a candidate for the highest office, he will self-destruct his chances of being an MP. Mao, will by default go against both Bobi Wine and Museveni. Who knows if Muntu will join the team and who the FDC fields for this. JEEMA, UPC and UFA has enough struggle to even get momentum for their MPs, they should focus there.

That is why, the only interesting thing about Mao’s return to the battle for the highest office. How will he explain his ineffectiveness towards his fellow MPs who accept a close relations with the NRM and why he has attacked Besigye and his People’s Government? Because what striking difference is it between a Mao of 2019 versus the ones who called Besigye a serial loser a few years back?

Since I cannot figure out a time or pretext, where I thought of Mao as a winner. He haven’t even had the ability to run for MP last election and before that, been abysmal as a Presidential Candidate in 2011. Therefore, a little humility and grace, would be nice, but maybe his planning a TDA 2.0 with himself, and hopes Muntu can join the team with his ANT(s). Peace.

DP Reunion in Jinja: Cancelled out by the Calvary!

The Partisan Police Force was again at it, as the Democratic Party and Uganda Young Democrats had scheduled a Reunion on the Jinja Rugby Grounds. The Party Officials and the Organizers had notified as by law to hold the meeting in Jinja, however, the Police blocked the venue and did arrest several of DP officials.

What was striking as the authorities, the DP Reunion, took the DP President Norbert Mao was blocked, there was thrown tear-gas in Jinja. But, the Police quickly reported to the Daily Monitor, that the President of DP was negotiation and holding a consulting meeting with the officers at the Central Police Station of Jinja. Not, that he was directly arrested as previously reported by other sources. Clearly, there are something missing. As the State was notified, the paper trail has leaked online, by Mao himself. Therefore, it was known by the state since early February.

The Police does this simple cat- and mouse game with opposition. AS they have to comply with the restrictions of the Public Order Management Act and even if they do so. They still can be blocked for whatever reason the Regional Police Commander and others to clarify their intent. As, if the meeting and the rally itself was saying enough. We are getting close enough to the National Campaign Road Maps for 2020/21, that if a Party doesn’t comply them in combination with the POMA. They will be in deep trouble with the state. As we have seen previously in the Republic.

What the DP and UYD seen today isn’t groundbreaking, not a watershed moment or sign of the decades of control of Museveni. No, this is just the ordinary manifestation of the power and force, the state use against dissidents. Even the ones that usually complies and are very friendly to the powers, that be. But because, they still tries to operate as an independent opposition party, they still get into legal jeopardy. Because, that is how the state operates and continues to do so. Until the swearing-in of Museveni for the 6th time and pursuit of his 8 rings of service. There will surely be plenty more of this in the two years coming, 2020 and 2021, will be filled with stories like these. Just different names and parties, but the same mumbo jumbo.

What has been done in Jinja today to the leadership of the DP is nothing new. These arrests comes with a steady phase. Especially in a run-up to elections and within the narrow window of the campaigns. As well as during campaigns and the post-elections. If you’re lucky, you get extra bonus rounds of house-arrests and treason charges. That is for the unique, popular and resilient sort of politicians. Not mere mortals get that. They are behind bars and released on mockery of charges. Before, they try again to hold a rally or campaign. Peace.

Opinion: Norbert Mao will kick- and scream, but not act upon the indisciplined!

The Democratic Party in Uganda have been for long, seemed like a NRM-Lite. Like the sort of brew, that stinks like the ruling party, but isn’t the ruling the party. Feel me?

Therefore, the latest Presser with DP President Norbert Mao is coming of age. Like Whiskey if you like, its supposed to get better with age. However, in the case of Mao, it becomes more bitter and less flavourful. He might have more swagger in words and could resemble a vintage Tamale Mirundi. But his actions are weak.

Mao could have acted with swift actions against the “Good DP”, the DP’s whose in favour of the President. This being Fred Mukusa Mbidde or Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi. However, as he said he didn’t favour their positions nor sanctioned them. They should question their allegiance to the Party. However, that not been in question. Even Mbidde has been hanging around Museveni and the NRM Party in needed time before the vote of EALA MPs. Therefore, he did it too eat.

That was fun cases, as the DP Party getting prospects of power and reach. Even Mao didn’t directly sponsor or go behind it. He still hasn’t sanctioned it. His soft actions of letting it be and letting the MPs decides for themselves, where they want to be.

However, his words haven’t been soft after the People’s Government of Kizza Besigye was formed. The words against Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago and Betty Nambooze Bakireke has been fierce. The daggers was out and he was ready to get his game. Clearly, Mao was insulted that they went to work with Besigye. A man he has called loser, surely, because Mao favoured Mbabazi the NRM member gone “independent” over a real opposition. That is why just like Museveni, Mao throws shade on the ones affiliating with other opposition.

Surely, Mao sees it fine to hanging out with Abed Bwanika and other into the fold. But they are growing the stature or the stamina of the NRM-lite. Instead, they are showing a diminishing factor and lack of progress. The DP isn’t looking better.

Neither is Mao, whose been brash with words against others. But he himself wasn’t capable of even running as MP in the last General Election of 2016 and his stint on the 2011 trail wasn’t amazing either. Maybe, that is why he has become so friendly with NRM and Mbabazi. Because, he needs kingpins and support. That is why he is still entertained on the NBS Frontline, while the likes Mira Matembe was kicked-out. Surely, the man whose drinks soda at the Police Stations, while the others are behind bars for the same “inciting violence and disturbing the peace”. Therefore, he must have done something to someone to have that reach.

That is why his so inactive and enable of sort, but when his own men, his own members and people are acting in spite of the regime. He comes kicking and screaming, but was soft like dove when the Mzee came knocking. Seriously, there is something not adding up. However, then again, the DP acts and talks like NRM-lite.

Therefore, he has to strike at the ones who forcefully shows finesse and goes against the dictatorship. Not just mere puppets for the facade. If Masaka’s own, Mathias Mpuga Nsamba showed gravitas like during the Walk to Work. That would be a living hell for the DP President. Who surely thinking of how to run as an MP or Presidential Candidate after the failure of last go-around. As his party is flinched between to stations and not sure where to take-off.

What is clearly showing is that Norbert Mao. Isn’t the enforcer or the deciding anything. He has a microphone and a office, but not using it. Because, people makes decisions on their own and don’t have to follow party line. Neither, if its being a GOOD DP or a BAD DP. That doesn’t matter.

This saga will continue, especially in the run-up to 2021. Mao got to make headlines and act like he does something. Even when he in reality does nothing. Just let them say and speak their peace. Not that it matters, as long as he doesn’t serve time or feel the stench of tear-gas while politicking. Peace.

Opinion: Mbidde hopes people are so forgetful!

The folding his hands like “birdman” is Mbidde on the NRM Celebration of their 31st year in Masindi (January 2017).

This is not a written defense of Abed Bwanika, I have always found his ways weird and suspicious, as he turns up to Presidential Elections for a non-existent party, which amount of members and representatives are not really rewarding any politician who has been part of it for so long. If he was serious about it and had a plan, he wouldn’t walk around like he is hungry everyday and do what he does.

However, he moves in all sorts of circles, even joined the Democratic Party Reunion in Masaka on the 28th September 2018. Where many opposition leaders from various parties showed up in solidarity for the DP Party.

While that was happening, Fred Mukasa Mbidde have really spread the word and called Bwanika a Bosco mole in the opposition yesterday. As he claims Bwanika does his bidding and his works to participate and report to Bosco. That wouldn’t surprise anyone.

But, Mbidde shouldn’t speak so loud, as he did whatever he could to please Bosco in 2017, as he couldn’t win inside the DP or in the Masaka Municipality MP elections in 2016, as Mathias Mpuuga won over him. Mbidde have even threaten him too and promised to challenge him again in 2021. That is maybe why he is vocal now, to act out to have a place possibly by then.

However, people shouldn’t trust Mbidde, he would marry the enemy if that fits his narrative and his needs. As he even kicked it at the 31st Celebration of the National Resistance Movement in Masindi on the 26th January 2017. That was done so he showed Bosco loyalty. Just so he could be on the ticket for the Ugandan delegation to the 3rd Assembly of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA).

With the knowledge of that, as he himself has a cozy relationship with the NRM and Bosco. That for his own need of a meal-ticket. Because Mbidde wouldn’t have the EALA spot if he wasn’t a “Good DP”. Therefore, he shouldn’t be the first to throw a stone at Bwanika. Yest, Bwanika is a character that is hard to trust, because of his activity and his sudden rise, whenever it is needed. But is gone in the wind, the next movement.

Mbidde might be true, but people have the right to ask about him too, as Mbidde has done deals all the way back to 2010 for Norbert Mao with the NRM. Therefore, the reason for him being the “Good DP”. He should maybe not be the biggest voices of moles, as he has questionable relationship with ruling regime and Bosco. As he has made deals to twice be parts of the EALA in Arusha. Peace.

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