Fragile Somalia is now taken advantage of by its neighbors!

Just as the International Community, the United Nations and African Union Mission are holding a tight grip, while the Mogadishu political scene is in full squabble and in-fighting. The neighbors are setting their sights on more land, Somali land to take control over. Over the last 24 hours, there are reports that Ethiopia has taken control over Aato District of Bakool province, where the Ethiopian government has built a hospital and a Police Station. They have annexed it without any forewarning.

Just like that the Kenyan government has started to building a border wall at Beled-hawo Town, the Kenyans are extending their border and their land with the building of the wall. It is a trick to grab some more land away from Somalia. Just like Ethiopia just have built themselves as a state in Aato District. That is the province closest to the Ethiopian border. So, it is fitting, the same as the Kenyan.

This is happening as the Berbera Port deal between Somaliland, Ethiopia and DP World has gotten into issues, as the Mogadishu politicians are trying to stop it and also the connection with Ethiopia. Who has already had a Berbera Corridor, that has been a project since October 2014 and has involved both IGAD, World Bank and other international development banks. All to secure a transport hub between Addis Ababa and Berbera port. That is fitting that the added pressure and lack of transparency between the regional government and the central government in Mogadishu, gets into question. That led to issues between Speaker Mohamad Osman Jawari and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire. Money talks and also adds guns.

That is why the whole play of the international community, while the Mogadishu government lacks control and oversight. While most of the family members of the cabinet are living abroad, while the leaders themselves, are eating for bad deals. And they don’t have the security or training to secure the borders. That is why Kenya and Ethiopia are taking charge on the porous borders, they are invading and annexing land. Because it has no consequence to the sovereignty of Somalia.

AMISOM, who has foreign soldiers on mandate cannot even keep Mogadishu totally safe, as the escalation of car-bombs and fatalities of civilians are a sign of troubles ahead. The President hasn’t attacked or asked for reasons for the neighbors annexation of land. Even if he cares or afraid of doing so. While the PM isn’t acting on it either. Even UN’s Micheal Keating hasn’t addressed it, he who loves to be the face of the Republic. Now he is gone missing on the map. Just like President Farmajo, who should fight for his borders and his state, instead he is busy elsewhere.

This is worrying, that the Kenyans can take this land, that Ethiopia does too. That them all are doing this, that the DP Deal with Ethiopia, while the secrecy of the Berbera Corridor deal is showing it was planned a long while ago, since Ethiopia is landlocked and wants more safe ports than only in Djibouti. That is the sign, it is the Ethiopian power-play, while Kenya just showing power to take more land in self-defense. Still, it is not right to do that to a sovereign.

I am not even Somali and I am worried about the porous borders, the lack of manpower, the Somali National Army and the Police Service, when the foreign states can just do this. You take a breadcrumb, another breadcrumb and next time slice of bread, with time you take the whole bread. That is how we are as people, state is not different from that. As a weak state, that is taken advantage by its neighbor. They know this, because the AMISOM and UN Mission is not training or trying to achieve a secure state. The ones in Central Government want to live on donor funds and rampant corruption, instead of building institutions and stronger army to secure the borders. Because if they do, then they cannot beg for aid. A pledge they can eat without doing any work for it. Peace.

Rwanda: CLIIR – “Communique Special: Stop au Repatriements forces de refugies Hutus” (24.03.2018)

Final Communique of the Nairobi Action Plan on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia (22.03.2018)

IGAD, EU and Austrian Development Agency sign agreement on Peace and Security in Horn of Africa (23.03.2018)

Opinion: Have Kagame put a spell on the West?

You can wonder if the sins of old haunts the West, if the support and the strategies that worked back-in-the-day is now a lost tale. The hope for change and for a different outcome is gone. President Paul Kagame will run indefinitely and never step down. I don’t know if the West feel in debt for the crisis it didn’t prevent and didn’t manage properly in 1994. Where Kagame together with the rebel-militia supported by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni entered Rwanda. They had already been apart of the National Resistance Army (NRA) and the new government under National Resistance Movement (NRM). Kagame has done the same with the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) and made it into a party with the Rwandan Partriotic Front (RPF). Just after the model in Uganda.

Therefore, what you see in Rwanda is similar to what you have seen in Uganda. However, there are difference, that is why the chilling relationship between the neighbors. Kagame has worked closely with Uganda, they have sent armies together in the Democratic Republic of Congo, they have worked together to support the M-23 there too. They have been weapon brothers and brothers in arms. Still, the West let them both go. It is weird, but that is where we are. Both Museveni and Kagame can do whatever and get away it.

Kagame is either detaining or killing his enemies. He is doing it just like the Russian do. Rwandans has been poisoned in the United Kingdom, strange fatal accidents in South Africa, even in exile there are dangers if you have crossed Kagame. No-one is hidden from him and if they did him bad or even questioned him. He will find you and make sure you pay. Everyone can be touched and everyone can be taken.

Kagame has total control, nothing that he doesn’t have a stake in, there are clear that the state is part of all society. If there a dissidents or people questioning him, even if they are challenging him in public. They will be tarnished and detained, their family enterprises will be seized. There is no mercy and he never shows that to anyone.

That is maybe why the Western media, NGOs and States in general are walking on needles, they need the minerals he is thieving from the Kivu provinces and therefore, let him off the hook for the support of militias within the DRC. Let him of the hook for the human rights violations, for the killings of opposition and for the totalitarian activities. Where no one but his will matters. Kagame is the king and the sun first shines on him.

We should be worried, because he doesn’t lack use of violence and harassment, he hurts and kills. He might be successful to a certain extent, but we should be worried about the efforts and his involvement across the border. There are even claims of his use of spies and such in Burundi. Clearly, that could be the truth, since he has used all sort of manipulation and militias to get funding from abroad. Therefore, it is weird he is a donor friendly person, but also someone who has no issues with silencing his enemies. That should be worrying and that should cut him off the gravy-train, also sanction the companies that are importing his conflict minerals. Peace.

South Sudan: Government Rejects ‘Wild Rumours’ of Addis Ababa Peace Boycott (21.03.2018)

South Sudan: Arech Petroleum letter to President Salva Kiir Mayardit (15.03.2018)

South Sudan: National Communication Authority – “Public Notice – Suspension of vivacell Operations” (20.03.2018)

IGAD Council of Ministers Statement on Non-Compliance by The Parties to The Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan to Its Statement of 25th January 2018 (20.03.2018)

The IGAD Council of Ministers (CoM) recalls its statement of 25th January 2018 titled “Statement on The Reports of Violations of Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in the Republic of South Sudan”, regarding serious violations of cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) which called on the Government of South Sudan and SPLM-IO (RM) to undertake the necessary investigation and ensure accountability of Violators.

The Council also recalls its demand on the Parties to provide information of the responsible individual(s)/groups(s) to CTSAMM within one month from the issuance of the 25th January, 2018 Statement. However, the council notes with regrets that no party has submitted its report to CTSAMM as of the issuance of this Statement.

The council is dismayed to learn that in some parts of the Country the violations of the Agreement continued with impunity.

The failure to comply with the duty to investigate and report the accountability measures taken against perpetrators of violations of the COHA can be considered as non-compliance to Article 13 of the COHA.

The Council of Ministers, once again, calls on all the Parties to the conflict to fully observe their obligation under the COHA. It also expresses firm determination to take appropriate actions on the non-compliance to its Statement.

Issued on 20th of March 2018

Coup in Mogadishu Part II: Was the action today from AMISOM a redeployment or a takeover of the Parliament?

Yesterday’s stand-off in the Parliament as the two tabled ‘no confidence’ votes transpired into the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire decision to send the Special Guard to the Parliament to prove his power to the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. Today, The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sent troops to the Parliament to settle the stand-off of yesterday, if these we’re the orders of the Force Commander Lieutenant General Osman Noor Soubagleh or somebody else is hard to know.

But the political squabble and the use of military force to settle the score cannot continue. This transpiring efforts will only undermine the state and the means of the Federal Government of Somalia. That is not a show of strength, when the PM orders the Special Guards to the Parliament, neither is it show of strength, when the Peacekeepers has to occupy the National Assembly. We all know that is a bad sign ahead. No matter what they call the action today, if it a redeployment or a takeover. Yesterday, was a vicious act to spike fear in the mind of Jawari, even if I doubt it would do that to him,

We can wonder where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo has been, why he hasn’t said anything, condemn either of the political actors, neither his deputy or the speaker. No one has been answered, the President is so silent. You could think he was hiding beneath a rock or try to get to Addis Ababa. Because, he is not heard from. Even the fishes speaks more of the recent acts in Mogadishu than him, I am sure Nemo has some answers for Farmajo.

Another one, who usually challenges the political landscape and acts like a local kingpin, is United Nations Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating. I was expecting to blaze all guns and spiteful chants of different types. As he sometimes at international affairs and even at forums are more viable than heads of the Federal Government of Somalia. Therefore, in an affair like this, he might should have taken more charge. Since he likes the spotlight and looks like he matters in Somalian questions.

With the AMISOM actions, they clearly used the status of the 11 Point of their mandate: “To provide and assist, as appropriate, protection to the Somali authorities to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure” (AMISOM – ‘AMISOM Mandate’). So the Parliament can be seen as part of Somali authorities and key infrastructure. Some call the acts today a redeployment and not a takeover. But after yesterday, it seems like an act to show their mandate to the people.

Since the Special Guards came yesterday, we can wonder how this will evolve, how the different fractions will behave and how the next few days will be. Since the PM has used the army for his personnel gain, while questions of others non-action shows their true face. It should be expected that the President acts and also address his closest Deputy, instead he has left him go of the hook. He could also have addressed the Speaker to clear the air. Instead, nothing has happen and the transpired affair shows.

The ending of a political career can show the weakest links, can show how they act under stress. The PM goes to use soldiers and use of the army to settle his affairs with men who wants him away. The Speaker tries to use protocol and find out if he is allowed to do the same. However, the one with the guns stops all activity, but he loses face, because they know it was wrong behavior and the world knows it.

PM Kheire has flipped has cards, but he doesn’t have a full-house, not even a straight flush, he should have wished he had a royal flush, but he didn’t. We could wish the PM had bluffed, but he didn’t stack the deck, he just went into with a bad hand. The risked all with all-in without knowing the consequences. We will see if he wins, but it will not be because of brilliant tactics, because it hasn’t been.

AMISOM has acted, but the tale of the Lower House of the Parliament is not over and the ‘No Confidence’ for either the Speaker and PM will come up again. But the one that has lost face is the PM. Who has misused his position and put himself in the line of fire, because of either arrogance or fear for his position. Peace.