South Sudan: NRF/NRA Posistion Paper on the Emerging of Different South Sudanese Fighting Opposition Groups in light of Search for Solution to the Ongoing Nationwide Crisis (10.03.2017)

Mystery piece: SPLM-IO secret of the General’s death!

Today’s resignation of Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman, there is revelation of a weakness that can only benefit the rest of the rebels and the government troops itself. As a key sentence from Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman that said:

“Finally, it is worth mentioning that, over three years, you intentionally failed to supply our forces in Equatoria with arms and the necessary logistical support, an act that endangered many of our men’s lives because their capacity to defend themselves was greatly affected, hence the death of Gen. Elias Lino Jada, and Gen. Martin Kenyi, among others” (Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman, 11.03.2017).

Even reports in the mid-year last year showed that he was a powerful rebel and an important ally of the SPLM-IO rebellion towards the SPLM/A. This with the Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin with his own outfit National Democratic Movement (NDM) and the newly created by Lt. Gen. Thomas Cirilo Swaka with his National Salvation Front (NSF), who is now co-operating with Gen. Khalid Butros Bora of the South Sudanese Democratic Movement (SSDM).

So the SPLM/A has enough rebel outfits with military experience on their hands as the Japanese peacekeepers are leaving, but the greed of foreign workers paying $10,000 United States Dollars (USD) for visa in the South Sudan. That must be to get enough revenue to pay for the military operations and to battle the rebellions.

Certainly the SPLM-IO earns on the many more rebellions as the government forces has troubles to contain them alone, still the defeats of respected rebels like General Matin Kenyi, the General Staff of Training and seen as the leader of the Equatorians. Even in 2016 he was the ones who raided in Yumbe district in Uganda. So, the rebel was known also outside of South Sudan.

So this leader and rebel were important to the struggle of Dr. Riek Machar and SPLM-IO. The only proof of his death before was a little tweet by The Bell South Sudan, who wrote on the 14th August 2016 that he died in a battle in Lobonok and he died together with 14 more persons. Therefore, this today is the second message of his death, but since it is the Deputy Spokesperson of SPLM-IO.

The proof that SPLM-IO wanted it buried and not told is evident. As if died in August 2016 and it is now revealed, the SPLM-IO we’re afraid if more people wanted to leave and if the Equatorial states. Certainly the SPLA and the government can be proud of this moment, as the important generals and training officers is dying. Therefore, there is weakness in the SPLM-IO when they keeps silent of the death of central command.

The accountability by the rebels is not a good sign if they we’re to rule, they would just be other former warlords to rule the republic. As they cannot excel with information of the losses and then you cannot trust if they are really winning. Since their reports will be biased and less sincere as the withheld information is vital to their leadership, like the fall of the leader of Kenyi.

We can only wonder what sort of brigades that has been lost or vital positions, as the SPLM-IO want to seem stronger and wiser than they actually seem to be. SPLM/A are the winner in this one, even as the amount of rebels are rising on all fronts, and the wish for another less greedy and less corrupt Central Government. President Salva Kiir Mayardiit seen like a lost soul with the resignations and deflections, but with this he seems a bit stronger; since the SPLM-IO and Dr. Riek Machar cannot tell of their losses. It gets released with more people deserting from him as well, as SPLM/A has people creating their own outfits. The whole picture becomes more scattered as the famine and more issues approach.

Certainly, SPLM-IO has lost a vital and important General in Martin Kenyi, another reason for not telling about it and spelling out to the world about his fall. As his important position both locally and for training of soldiers must been seen as giant beating from SPLA. Therefore, President Kiir knows that his army has done something big in the late 2016 to weaken the rebels. Peace.

RI Report: The South Sudanese refugee influx on Northern Uganda and the strain of resources!

There is a massive surge of Refugees from South Sudan, as the crisis is prolonged, the influx of rebellion from the SPLM/A, and SPLM/A-IO, therefore the villagers and farmers will flee the war-torn republic. However, the Ugandan hospitality to these fleeing foreign citizens is more than what happens in the Western Hemisphere and Europe. Uganda has on average taken in 2,400 South Sudanese refugees. This has even created the largest refugee site in the world in Bidibidi on the borders to the Republic.

What this report show’s isn’t just the numbers of South Sudanese that has had to flee the republic, but also the challenges both the Ugandan Authorities, the UN Organizations together with NGOs are meeting. These isn’t small fries, this is the big bank and needed funds to secure the safety of these refugees. Even though the NGOs are struggling with the interference and authorities for their controlling efforts from the Office of Prime Minister and the Prime Minister Dr. Ruhakana Ruganda who has to be informed and accept the works from them.

Just take look!

The amount of Refugees in Uganda:

“Uganda currently faces the fastest-growing refugee crisis in the world. From July 2016 through January 2017, more than 512,000 South Sudanese refugees arrived in the country – an average of roughly 2,400 per day. This staggering rate of influx into one country, sustained over such a long period, has few precedents in recent years. As a consequence, Uganda has now become the top-ranking refugee- hosting country in Africa, with more than a million refugees in total. It also hosts what is likely the world’s largest refugee site, Bidibidi, with more than 270,000 residents” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 4, 2017).

Continued crisis in South Sudan:

“In short, there is no reason to believe that South Sudanese will be able to return home anytime soon, or that the influx of new arrivals will dissipate. Indeed, UNHCR currently projects that the number of South Sudanese refugees will increase from just over 600,000 today to 925,000 by the end of 2017” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 6, 2017).

Lacking shelter for the refugees:

“Humanitarians told RI that, per Ugandan refugee policy, refugees are expected to build their own shelters. This has the benefit of allowing refugees to design shelters that they want to live in, but it creates challenges when the shelter materials they need (such as lumber and grass) are in short supply, or when refugees physically cannot build their shelters or do not know how. Shelter kits and construction assistance for vulnerable refugees are insufficient and leave refugees – especially women and girls – at risk. For example, in Palorinya settlement, RI met an 18-year-old woman from Yei who came to Uganda alone after her grandmother went missing. RI accompanied her as she collected what she could of her shelter kit and transported it to her plot of land, where she had no instruction or assistance in assembling the shelter as dusk approached. She lamented to RI that she was likely to sleep in the open for an unforeseeable amount of time until she secured assistance” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 8, 2017).

Lacking funds and materials:

“Aid agencies reported that when core relief items were distributed, they nearly always included materials specific to women and girls’ needs – among them, dignity and maternity kits and hand-held solar lamps. Women interviewed did lament shortages of these materials but appreciated that such items were somewhat available, including at reception centers where refugees sometimes have to spend the night prior to transport to a settlement. In other words, it appears that funding shortages in Uganda did not lead to the prioritization of other relief materials at the expense of women’s dignity kits, as RI has unfortunately seen in many emergency situations. This recognition that women’s needs are as important as all others is fundamental to the Safe from the Start approach” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 11, 2017).

Ugandan Government:

“Another humanitarian explained that while Ugandan officials have not discussed “capping” arrivals from South Sudan, refugee fatigue remains a possibility, particularly at the local level. “In the beginning, as one district got an economic boost from the refugees, competition arose between the districts over who could receive more refugees,” the humanitarian said. “But the money for aid now is not what it was, and district governments are noticing this. Expectations are very high and may not be met. That could turn the tide.” This highlights the need for development support in refugee-hosting areas, which can be targeted at host populations in a way that refugee aid cannot” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 16, 2017). “According to multiple senior humanitarians with whom the RI team spoke, OPM exercises tight control over where NGOs can intervene and in which sectors they can work. NGOs are obliged to obtain permission from OPM in order to operate in refugee settlements. Further, OPM is a signatory to all partnership agreements between NGOs and UN agencies. Such measures are not unusual in refugee situations; however, humanitarians told RI that OPM personnel had used these measures as a means to interfere in decisions about partnerships and contracting. RI was told of multiple cases in which OPM personnel had requested that UN agencies or NGOs establish partnerships with specific national NGOs or contract with specific companies. Some humanitarians said that they had accepted this arrangement with resignation. “We do not have full control over our implementing partners, and there are some that we would not have picked otherwise,” one humanitarian said. “When the government disagrees with us, we lose … Everything becomes difficult at the institutional level if we put our foot down and try to say no to a partner.” Another humanitarian recounted that their aid agency had hired a private contractor after “so much pressure” from OPM staff, and that the contractor’s subsequent work was delayed and of poor quality, forcing the aid agency to take a loss. When humanitarians have resisted OPM’s entreaties, the government’s reaction has sometimes been unhelpful: RI was told of cases in which aid organizations were allegedly denied access to settlements after rejecting a contractor that OPM suggested, and of cases where OPM allegedly delayed approving projects for months because of disagreements over the choice of a contractor” (Boyce & Viguad-Walsh, P: 17-18, 2017).

Important recommendations:

“The Ugandan government should:

**Respect the competitive and transparent nature of partnership selection and contracting, and fully abide by ethical standards, including the provisions of Uganda’s Leadership Code Act;

  • • Ensure that any complaints pertaining to the management of the refugee response are fully investigated by the Inspectorate of Government and that any informers and witnesses are provided with appropriate protection; and
  • • Finalize the acceptance of the World Bank’s financing package in support of refugee-hosting areas.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and Uganda’s Office of the Prime Minister should:

  • • Prioritize partnership applications from specialized trauma counseling agencies; and
  • • Review procedures for identifying people with specific needs at border points to determine if they are in compliance with UNHCR’s Emergency Handbook guidance, and conduct refresher trainings for all personnel responsible for such identification” (Boyce & Vigaud-Walsh, P: 3, 2017).

There we’re many more things to take from this, but there are just enough one man can focus from a hard-hitting report like this. Like all actors and people has to change as these challenges isn’t something that comes easy, the levels of refugees and their experiences needs treatment, food and water, they need a fresh start and peace. That doesn’t come easy, as many of them wants to go home, but the civil war and uncertainty leaves them in a limbo in Uganda. The United Nations Organizations and Office of Prime Minister of Uganda can only go so far. What is also worrying is that the locals and Ugandans expected to earn trade on refugees, instead of seeing the volatile situation the refugees are in and the hostile environment they left. As the Ugandan Authorities sent their army before the last peace-agreement between SPLM/A and SPLM-IO.

The Refugee crisis in Northern Uganda is serious and shouldn’t be forgotten, the donations and spending from international society should be a priority as the expected amount of refugees might be up to as high as 1 million South Sudanese by the end of 2017. No country or state has the economy to facilitate that; even the United States cannot afford refugees right now. If you interpret their bans of Syrian refugees right now! While the Ugandan republic has the ability and capacity to host this massive amounts of refugees, with the hesitation of getting knowledge of all activity from the UN Organizations and NGOs in the Refugee camps and fields. Peace.

Reference:

Boyce, Michael & Vigaud-Walsh, Francisca – ‘GETTING IT RIGHT: PROTECTION OF SOUTH SUDANESE REFUGEES IN UGANDA’ (March 2017), Refugees International – Field Report

South Sudan: Resignation letter from Deputy Spokesman NLC in SPLM-IO Col. Nyarji Jermlili Roman (11.03.2017)

South Sudan: Lt. Gen. Faiz Ismail Fatur Boy resignation from SPLM/A-IO to join National Salvation Force (NSF) – (09.03.2017)

Opinion: Suddenly President Kagame doesn’t want Rwanda to be dependent on the West!

For Africa as we wait to see what unfolds and adjust, we should be learning the lesson that we should not be entirely dependent. We will wake up to the reality there are things we should be doing for ourselves. You have made it appear that your situations are perfect and you want others to emulate you. Then you are surprised by what unfolds. It is what you have been hitting us with that is coming back to bite you. I did not change the constitution. If you want to know the truth you will find it is the people who did, not me. My satisfaction lies in the truth that we have not been involved in harming our people. What we are doing is to develop our country. If we don’t take care of ourselves, no one else will. As long as Rwandans are happy, we will keep doing what needs to be done. We will be listening to what others say but we will not be distracted from what needs to be done.”

-President Paul Kagame speaks to Gerard Baker, editor in chief of the Wall Street Journal, at the closing session of Invest in Africa conference.

President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, the long lingering Executive of Rwanda has compelled his words against dependency of the West. Surely, he has had this in mind for while in his own haven, as the Rwandan government has been a donor friendly. Therefore, that he claims now to take a stand against them shows the sudden change of attitude. However, it is sudden donors and programs that have stopped coming Kagame’s way, therefore the Rwandan government have started to run a giant tab of external debt instead of donor aid grants. Like look at some quotes from companies that establish the economic output and the financial flow of nations, like Deloitte and KPMG!

Rising debt:

“According to BMI, total external debt levels in the country have been rising steadily in recent years, from 16.1% of GDP in 2010 to an estimated 30.5% of GDP in 2015. Debt levels for 2016 and total external debt are forecast to amount to 35.2% of GDP and will be composed mostly of government debt” (Deloitte, P: 4, 2016).

Failing Foreign Aid, therefore rising debt:

“The primary headwind to the Rwandan economy in the 2016-2025 period will be the impact on debt as a result of falling foreign aid. Despite prudent fiscal policies to date, increases in debt levels will follow from the fall in foreign aid, since Rwanda is now deemed fit to transition from grant-based financing to loan-based financing by the IMF” (Deloitte, P: 5,2016).  “The government has been compelled to adopt a more prudent fiscal policy stance in an attempt to reduce the country’s dependence on donor support and increase fiscal autonomy. Recent external headwinds have encouraged the government to ease demand for imports by reassessing its infrastructure investment programme. This will undoubtedly have a negative impact on economic growth. That being said, the benefits of lower donor dependence and improved macroeconomic stability should outweigh the costs related to lower growth over the short term. Turning to external balances, Rwanda’s wide merchandise trade deficit is expected to maintain a shortfall in the overall current account going forward” (KPMG, P: 4, 2016).

“Aid harmonization has been improved and progress continues to be registered in the implementation of the Paris and Busan commitments especially the use of national budget and procurement systems. The Bank was the 6th largest Official Development Assistance (ODA) provider to Rwanda in 2013/14, accounting for 9.4% of total ODA26. The World Bank and EU invest in agriculture and energy whereas the leading bilateral DPs focus, among other things, on human development and social protection (Annex 8a). Annex 8b summarizes the progress made in implementing selected indicators as captured by the Donor Performance Assessment Framework. Use of the sector budget support (SBS) instrument has increased the share of Bank support disbursed using country systems. Under the DPCG, the Bank actively participates in activities to enhance the implementation of EDPRS II such as the 2014/15 assessment of SWGs” (AfDB, P: 9, 2016).

So if you look at the financial policies of the republic of Rwanda, some of it is not really chosen as the donors funds that has been suspended or stopped might be for several of reasons. That might be that if they accept the funds they have to follow a spectre of policies and interferes with the power that Kagame wish to achieve. The RPF and Kagame has total control of Rwanda, the export and the import, also owns dozens of the businesses. So the Rwandan government had to switch their economy with more loans, instead of donor aid. The loans are coming in through external debt as the external donor funds and grants have dwindled.

Therefore, the excuse of suddenly wanting to be independent is more a need, than a wish. If it was a wish earlier, than the AGOA or USAID to the RPF would have stopped decades ago. That should be common knowledge of the relationship between Paul Kagame and Bill Clinton. It is not that it is positive that the Rwandan Government want’s less aid is a healthy stance. Still, the excuse isn’t eaten by me.

The reality is that the increased debt instead of donor grants will hurt the economy, as the levied interest rates and other cost will hurt the economy. It isn’t healthy to be dependent of the aid either, but the reasons now seem more to reactionary than real intent. I am sure Paul Kagame would love funds from Belgium and France to build hospitals and clinics in rural regions of Rwanda. So, suddenly the West isn’t good enough, especially when they are questioning his reasons for staying in power and not having any successors while his regime is keeping a close lid on the opposition. Therefore, the economy and independent from the world becomes more important because then he needs to less show of transparency and accountability. Peace.

Reference:

AfDB – ‘RWANDA BANK GROUP COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2017 – 2021 (October, 2016).

Deloitte – ‘Rwanda Economic Outlook 2016 The Story Behind the Numbers’ (June 2016)

KPMG – ‘Economic Snapshot H2, 2016 – Rwanda’ (15.10.2016) link:

https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/za/pdf/2016/10/KPMG-Rwanda-2016-Snapshot.pdf

South Sudan: Equatorian Governors in the SPLM-IO on Declaration of National Salvation of South Sudan (09.03.2017)

Mzee said today: ‘We cannot have famine in Uganda’, well apparently you do!

This morning, H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni commissioned Dokolo water supply system. (National Water and Sewerage Corporation – NWSC)

Well, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is apparently controlling the weather and steering the sun. However, the President doesn’t have those powers; he could have already built in systems that took care of water in the raining seasons and other irrigation schemes. This is special to hear, since he has been running the Republic for thirty years. That should be well known in the humid climate of Uganda. Well, here are parts of his speech in Dokolo on the International Woman’s Day!

“We cannot have famine in Uganda; that will not happen, even if it means diverting resources from other departments. We will do so although this will stop progress of key projects.” (…) “This little scare is good because it has waked us up to look at irrigation” (…) “As of now I have directed government departments to start working on solar powered pumps for irrigation and we have already experimented in some areas” (AYFAP, 2017).

Because the President Museveni cannot have listen well to Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net) who in their February 2017 edition wrote this about Uganda:

During the February to June lean season, very poor households in Moroto and Napak are expected to face food consumption gaps and be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In these areas, poorly distributed rainfall led to below-average production and very poor households depleted food stocks three months earlier than normal. Many are facing increasing difficulty purchasing sufficient food to meet their basic needs, as food prices are 30-40 percent above average. Food security is expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in July with the green harvest” (…) “Pasture conditions and water resources in the cattle corridor are expected to remain below average through March due to above-average land surface temperatures. Conditions are likely to improve to near normal levels in April, alongside average seasonal rainfall. Conditions will then seasonally decline from June through September. Livestock body conditions and milk productivity are expected to follow the same trend” (FEWS Net, February 2017).

So the international body that follows the possible outbreaks of famine and early warnings is saying continued struggles in Karamoja and the cattle corridor of Isingiro. Even if the President is claiming there shouldn’t be trouble or a crisis. Because Museveni himself saying there cannot be famine in Uganda, still, it is not much his government of three decades has done to curb the problem. His government has not thought of technics of keeping water and irrigate the soil. Not too long ago he spent time and used jerry-cans and bicycle to irrigate the soil, which cannot be the solution for the lack of water in Karamoja or in Isingiro.

Back in 2011 to international media the President seemed to have a plan:
“The Ugandan government, according to Museveni, now plans to “exploit the potential of Karamoja”, a move which is expected to involve offering large tracts of Karamoja land to foreign corporations to grow biofuels, as well as designating more “conservation” and mining areas. This, say critics, will only increase conflict and hunger, force more young people to move into cities, and will destroy a rich way of life that has proved resilient and economically viable” (Vidal, 2011).

So 6 years later and new famine in the Karamoja, the plans of 2011 seems like they are hurting like the critics did say. So, the new plans might cause more havoc on the embattled people of Northern Uganda.

Therefore in his own making he has destroyed the livelihood and other issues in these volatile areas. The ones in Isingiro is different, as the pastoral and the cattle corridor, Seemingly, the Ugandan Republican can have famine, it is just President Museveni and his regime who cannot control or having the mechanism to contain it. They do not have the means or efforts to help the ones in need more than a few PR scoops of trucks and meals.

So President Museveni needs guidance and needs an incentive to earn on it. If so than this problems would be fixed, if there we’re some sort of scam or program that could be used so the people could get something and he could eat of their plate. If so, the irrigation scheme would be in place and the people wouldn’t starve. So please, conning people who cares about the famine in Uganda give a way for the petty thief to steal little some and people can get some. Peace.

Reference:

African Youth Forum against Poverty (AYFAP) – ‘Famine Scare is Good, Says Museveni’ (08.03.2017) link: http://www.ayfapuc.org/index.php/2017/03/08/famine-scare-is-good-says-museveni/

FEWS NET – ‘Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely to persist in bimodal areas until June harvest’ (February 2017) link: http://www.fews.net/east-africa/uganda/food-security-outlook/february-2017

Vidal, John – ‘Uganda: nomads face an attack on their way of life’ (27.11.2011) link: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/27/uganda-nomad-farmers-climate-change

South Sudan: A Fruitful Discussion between Gen. Khalid Butrus Bora of SSDM/A and Gen. Thomas Cirillo Swaka of NSF (07.03.2017)

Burundi: Portant Nomination du Porte-Parole et du Porte-Parole Adjoint du President de la Repulique (06.03.2017)