East Africa: Joint Communique – The threat of starvation looms in East Africa after four failed rainy seasons (30.05.2022)

Drought in the Horn of Africa: New Analyses Flag Mounting Risks, Need to Support Rural Families (11.02.2022)

A drought picture from a previous drought in Somalia (sometime in 2016)

FAO senior officials visit affected areas in the rush to save lives and livelihoods.

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 11, 2022 – An extended, multi-season drought is driving acute food insecurity in the Horn of Africa, with 12 to 14 million people now at risk as crops continue to wither and animals weaken, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and partners warned today.

Resource-based conflicts are escalating as competition for water and pasturelands increases, and malnutrition rates are rising in affected areas of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, highlighting the need to sustain the rural livelihoods that underpin peace and food security across the Horn.

At a briefing to international donors in Nairobi, FAO and its partners reported that the food security outlook in the region will be highly dependent on the performance of the upcoming rainy season, with forecasts currently uncertain.

In a worst-case scenario in which the rains completely fail and agricultural-dependent communities do not receive adequate support, the number of highly food insecure people could climb to 15-20 million – with some worst-affected households facing “catastrophic” hunger conditions.

“Drought cycles are intensifying and occurring with greater frequency. Immediate humanitarian action to support farmers and herders is needed now,” said Bechdol, after visiting Kenyan communities where goats and cows are dying from lack of water and pasture. “The international community has a narrow window to prevent a major humanitarian catastrophe here,” she said.

“Alarm bells have already been rung – scaled-up action is needed now,” said Phiri. “FAO carried out anticipatory actions during the latter half of 2021 in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia to mitigate the impacts of drought on over one million rural people and so far a crisis has been mitigated. But much more is needed as the situation deteriorates and as crisis looms,” he said.

A plan to help rural families cope 

Under FAO’s new Horn of Africa Drought Response Plan, $130 million is urgently needed to provide time-critical assistance to highly vulnerable communities in drought-hit regions of the three countries. The plan supports the production of up to 90 million litres of milk and up to 40 000 tonnes of staple food crops in the first part of 2022, putting over one million highly-food insecure people on a safe footing.

For pastoralist families, FAO aims to deliver animal feed and nutritional supplements, provide mobile veterinary health clinics, transport 10 000 litre collapsible water reservoirs to remote areas, and upgrade existing wells to run on solar power.

For farming families, FAO aims to distribute drought-tolerant early-maturing varieties of sorghum, maize, cowpea and other beans and vegetables.

FAO is also carrying out cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes to ensure the most vulnerable can access food.

Additional new analysis published on Thursday from the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) for Somalia, hosted by FAO, shows that in Somalia alone, the number of acutely food insecure people (IPC Phase 3 and 4) is expected to increase from 3.5 to 4.1 million between January and March 2022, if humanitarian assistance is not received on time.

FAO’s Deputy Director-General, Beth Bechdol; Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, David Phiri; and Director of Emergencies and Resilience, Rein Paulsen have just completed a visit to Kenya to raise awareness on the drought and see FAO’s vital response in action, including in Isiolo and Marsabit counties in the north.

IGAD and FAO Call for Urgent Actions to Mitigate the Impacts of Drought Across the Horn of Africa (18.11.2021)

A joint statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary, Dr Workneh Gebeyehu and the FAO Subregional Coordinator for Eastern Africa, Dr Chimimba David Phiri.

NAIROBI, Kenya, November 18, 2021 – Vulnerable communities in the IGAD region continue to experience a complex mix of re-enforcing shocks and stresses that are eroding their resilience to food and nutrition insecurity. As of October 2021, 26 million people were already facing high levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+), according to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), which is co-chaired by the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Due to the threat of worsening drought conditions, food insecurity will likely rise during the first half of 2022 across the Horn of Africa. Urgent action is therefore required now to safeguard livelihoods, save lives, and prevent possible starvation in some areas.

Drought conditions are already affecting the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, southern and central Somalia, and Belg-receiving areas of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia as consecutive poor rainfall seasons have driven below-average crop production, rising cereal prices, poor rangeland conditions, reduced livestock production, and drought-related  animal deaths in many areas.

Moreover, as forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the start of the current October-December 2021 rainy season has been significantly delayed, with little to no rainfall observed to date in many areas, raising the probability of another poor season. Should this occur, agricultural and pastoral conditions will further deteriorate, causing households already struggling with the effects of multiple, concurrent hazards (climate variability, conflict, COVID-19, and desert locusts) to employ negative coping strategies and reduce their food consumption. This is a major source of concern as food insecurity in the region has historically increased sharply following consecutive poor rainfall seasons.

IGAD Member States continue to work in collaboration with development partners to anticipate and respond to various food security threats and build the resilience of vulnerable communities to recurrent threats and crises. During the desert locust upsurge, for example, the unparalleled support of resource partners and multi-agency coordination averted USD 1.3 billion worth of cereal losses, meeting the cereal requirements of 29.1 million people. Desert locust livelihood recovery support continues for more than 200 000 households.

IGAD and FAO share a long-standing history of successful partnership and collaboration in building the region’s resilience in several areas, including but not limited to: livelihood support to strengthen resilience against droughts; food security information and analysis; early warning and disaster risk management; implementation of cross border actions in close collaboration with the respective communities, local and national authorities; conflict prevention; natural resource management; market access and trade; and capacity building; institutional strengthening and coordination through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI).

Such resilience-building efforts have significantly improved the ability of households to withstand the impacts of shocks. However, the increased frequency of climatic hazards, combined with the effects of other stressors, is threatening these hard-won gains. It is, therefore, crucial to act now to protect these resilience gains and prevent more people from sliding into food insecurity and malnutrition.

To this end, we must support farmers and herders who are experiencing the impacts of poor harvests, depleted food and animal feedstock, and rising food and water prices. More specifically, IGAD and FAO call for a scale-up of contributions to existing and future Humanitarian Response Plans (HRPs) as the response remains grossly underfunded in the relevant countries. Through rapid, collaborative action by all actors, we can safeguard the lives and livelihoods of communities currently bearing the worsening effects of the drought, while at the same time, protecting households’ longer-term resilience.

IGAD: CEWARN positioned to expand its integrated data collection and analysis system towards full regional coverage (01.05.2018)

Opinion: Tsvangirai, the man who had deserved to be President!

There are some fellows walking on this earth, who has deserved with their persistence and leadership, with their potential and their spirit. That they are justified to become President. The way they are and their aura. It is rare and unique. Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change – T (MDC-T) had deserved to carry that mantle. The way he carried himself through the oppression and the hacks who took him for granted.

Tsvangirai has proven to resilient and strong, he got played, but still showed his character. No one would have judged him if he had given up after the Second Round Elections and the rigged affair of 2008. With all the merciless use of force and the obvious stolen elections. Someone could have given in and said enough. Instead, he shown his leadership abilities. The way he continued to build his party and take a path towards a better tomorrow.

Tsvangirai shouldn’t just be remembered for being the main opposition of former dictator Robert Mugabe, who ruled until last November 2017. Who kept him away from the office and from the Presidency, by all means. Tsvangirai tried by all means to get there and used with peace. He didn’t want to take power by the guns, like Mugabe did and never left. He was tricked by the Global Political Agreement that made him Prime Minister, even if he won the 2008 election. That shows the conning ways of Mugabe and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) helper Thabo Mbeki. His weakness of Mbeki and wishes for stability by any means. That gave Mugabe a freeway to stay in power.

Therefore, Tsvangirai was risked on the alter and ZANU-PF, the Mugabe Presidency lingered on and the MDC-T and the MDC turned into different fractions. That is why it’s with time become the MDC-Alliance. Where some has given up Tsvangirai and others still has hope for the man. Even if he has been sickly and weak, there has still been hope that he could run against ZANU-PF new President Emmerson Mnangagwa. However, today we know, that Mnangagwa doesn’t need to fear Tsvangirai. His body gave way and he finally got peace.

Tsvangirai has fought a battle, he has risked it all and seen comrades die in the street. He has campaigned for a just cause, he has done it with swift actions and persistence. No one can take that away from him.

He has often spoken of not retribution against the regime, against Zanu-PF and Mugabe. Even as he has used the military and police to stifle the MDC. This Tsvangirai did even with the International Community and with communications, which been leaked in United States Embassy Cables. Therefore, Tsvangirai proved his legacy and his wishes of peaceful transition. Not making the same mistakes as in the past of violence and retribution. That could have been understandable with the violations and the harassment of the MDC. Still, he wouldn’t budge and give-in.

That is leadership and consistency. He had deserved to win in 2008, he won it in 2008 by my definition. It was ZANU-PF and SADC who gave it Mugabe. Tsvangirai knew this, but on the alter of International Pressure and a transition, while struggling with hyper-inflation. He gave in and gave way to Mugabe. This is sooner used and his men got the powerful positions. While Tsvangirai was the galleon figure to the international community.

There are people who says he lost 2013 because the party was confused, well, it wasn’t like he would have had the same backing or powerful message after been in power as Prime Minister. A position made to shut him down and not give him enough to be a problem for Mugabe.

Tsvangirai has run against Mugabe since 2002 and has had decent results, he shown that character and resilience matters. I think that he would have been a worthy successor and would have made changes worthwhile. He wasn’t an international stooge, but the world wanted someone else than Mugabe. Mugabe had gone from Liberation Hero into a totalitarian dictator. He had shown his despicable ways. That Tsvangirai proven to different from and wanting a peaceful transition.

Tsvangirai tried to cross the bridge, he tried to find the peaceful means to cross and get there. He worked for over a decade as a Presidential Candidate in the MDC-T. He had deserved to win and be it. Even during the worst economic crisis in near history. MDC could have mustered a direct change and not just a challenge to Mugabe.

Tsvangirai seemed like much more. MDC-T and could have been a great President. However he never got to call the shots, he got played and was tricked. If he in the end became tired and not as fierce as in the past. That comes with age and with experience. There is just as many times you can try the same thing and seeing no change.

Tsvangirai died today, not fool, not a loser, but a legendary politician who fought for the betterment of Zimbabwe and for its people. His service to the country should be remembered. Also his trials and tribulations. The MDC wouldn’t have a power struggle and leadership question of late, if it wouldn’t be for the foundation built by Tsvangirai.

That is just the result of the work done by Tsvangirai. This shouldn’t be forgotten.

Tsvangirai shall not be remembered because of Mugabe, but because of how he fought and did what he could to stand against him day in and day out for years. If people give up and start farming, instead of fighting dictatorship. That would be natural, but Tsvangirai didn’t. That is inspirational and should show us all. How to carry and try to make change into the society you wish for. Not that all tricks and all sorts of play work. However, you cannot deny that he didn’t do what he could.

Tsvangirai, your a hero and a lost one now. But your legacy and your achievements will be inspirational for generations to come. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Economy is struggling, not a rising lion as previously forecasted!

For as long as I can remember there gone stories of the amazing rise of the Ethiopian economy, the financial markets and the outputs out of this world. Where the money would grow ten-folds within minutes of its arrival. Like a mirage the number’s must have appeared in front of our eyes and stories that, we are told over the recent years. The Ethiopian powerhouse and the serious contender with Nigeria and South Africa. With their railways, banks and development projects, the powerful dam and all the others. It must have been a ride for the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn, must be so proud of his achievement.

Why I say that, because a booming economy does not do this:

“Ethiopia and World Bank have signed a 1.3 billion dollar grant and loan agreement to enhance equitable services and reduce food insecurity. The agreement was signed by Abraham Tekeste (PhD), minister of Finance & Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) and Carolyn Turk, World Bank’s country director for Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan” (All Africa, 2017).

So when a booming economy, that has such magnificent rates and growth prospects should not and no need for extensive borrowings from the World and subsidiaries, to say they need so is a lie. The debt and the international support for projects and food security is not a sign of a sound and strong economy. More of the latter if I beg to differ. On that, alas the recent weeks has proven this. World Bank was ushered in the end of September, but it is now cash-crunch time.

Not the jolly Captain Crunch, but the credit is due.

“Ethiopia will devalue its currency to attract foreign investment and close the gap in foreign trade, President Mulatu Teshome said at the opening of the bicameral parliament on Monday. He said his government is faced with a serious shortage of hard currency and export trade has dwindled in last three years. Mulatu said major projects like the construction of railway and universities will not be carried out this budget year due to a serious shortage of finances” (ESAT, 2017).

The seriousness is there and it is bleak, when the President Teshome shows up and spread enlightenment to the world. That the economy is fragile and not at its peak, is clear when all the prestige and the giant projects are now put on hold until further notice. Clearly, the financial strains have hit the economy, as well as their exports has given them less hard currency.

It does not go well, when just days ago, when this hit the fan as well:

“Double-digit inflation keeps threatening the macroeconomic conditions of the country as the headline inflation rate hit 10.8pc last month, according to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)- the highest since October 2015. It is in contrary with the target of the government in the second edition of Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP II) to keep inflation in a single digit. The hike in the price of cereals such as teff, maize, wheat, barley, beans and sorghum coupled with holiday-driven price upsurge is the primary reason for the inflationary pressure last month, keeping the food inflation stagnant around 13pc.“As September is a time of multiple holidays, it is believed to influence the increase in the inflation rate,” the report of CSA reads” (Berhane, 2017).

That the cash crunch and the double-digit inflation hits the Republic is not a good look. The proof of the currency value falling, lack of hard currency and new Multi-National loans proves that the Financial Sector and Financial Institutions are strained. There is nothing more to give, it is just bones and not meat. It is just a matter of time before the boiling bones gives no taste to stew as well!

In addition, you the economy is bonkers when their agency spread out this sort of tales, at the time the devalued currency is told to the public on other platforms.

This is from the Ethiopian News Agency:

“The diplomats, who observed the government’s direction at the joint session of the parliaments, whom ENA has talked to also forecasted the country`s economic growth to be amplified in better manner referring the current stability of the nation. Ambassador of Bangladesh to Ethiopia Monirul Islam said the growth that Ethiopia’s economy has witnessed was ‘wonderful’ despite the drought and other problems. “It was 10.9 percent and this year I hope it will be more than that because there is a good rain, everything is good, the state of emergency has been lifted and everything is normal”. “So I think the economy should perform better especially in the agriculture sector as well as in the industry sector”, he pointed out” (ENA, 2017).

I do not know if Ambassador Islam lives in alternative reality or trying to sugarcoat the situation of the dire economic state that the Republic is facing, but it makes good propaganda for the ones who still want the fantastic picture spread around the globe. That the Ethiopian economy is sound and still growing. However, it is hard to grow when you lack currency, you have growing inflation and you are borrowing more funds. I do not know, which economy or financial system that it works splendid in. Certainly not this one.

In addition, the news of the financial rising tiger or lion of Ethiopia has been a mirage, a fraud and play for the world to see. At this stage and in time, it is far from it. The Ethiopian economy is plummeting and at amp speed. If you eat up the crap the ENA serves you, it must certainly serve your kind, but it is not reality. The President even said so, the reports are striking and the added loans proves the dire state.

The ones who is the most hurt. It is the citizens who needs the hard currency to buy food and live, they are punished for the reckless care of the financial system. They are the ones who suffers, because of how the state decided to conduct their affairs. They are the ones who feels the inflation, the rising prices and still has to get by. It is not right, but that is how it is. The Ethiopian government should subsidize and make sure the people get enough. However, do not expect that. This is from the same government that sent Agazi squad to Amhara and Oromia to kill and destroy. They do not care, unless they have too or if it keep them in power. Peace.

Reference:

All Africa – ‘Ethiopia: World Bank Assents U.S.$1.3 Billion Finance to Ethiopia’ (30.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090243.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=promote%3Aaans%3Aabljpw

Berhane, Samson – ‘Gov’t Sees Double Digit Inflation, Again’ (08.10.2017) link: https://addisfortune.net/articles/govt-sees-double-digit-inflation-again/

ESAT – ‘Ethiopia President Says Country is Broke’ (09.10.2017) link: https://www.tesfanews.net/ethiopias-president-says-country-financial-crisis/

ENA – ‘Diplomats Laud Economic Performance of Ethiopia’ (10.10.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3814-diplomats-laud-economic-performance-of-ethiopia

 

Opinion: The Ethiopian Financial Market is plummeting…

The Ethiopian People’s Republic Defense Force (EPRDF) Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn have ordered to fix economic problem the government has. EPRDF has been hailed for their financial growth, but with this sort of news. You know the growth and the reality is far from the truth. Ethiopia News Agency: “International Consultant of Trade, Investment and Economic Development, Dr. Taffere Tesfachew said on the occasion the fact that African countries are performing better than the global average is testimony to how far Africa is coming over the decade. He noted that the economic growth of countries like Ethiopia and Ivory Coast is highly impressive at this time when other African countries are struggling with one or two percent growth” (ENA, 2017).

So I have to question the economic growth, as the Forex Woes and the remittance from the diaspora are proving otherwise. Together with the need of more foreign aid to solve the famine of the drought. So the World Bank clearly knows the troubles of the Ethiopian government since they did this:

“The World Bank today approved a $600 million International Development Association (IDA)* grant to support the Government of Ethiopia’s vision of building a national safety net system to provide effective support in chronically food insecure rural areas, including providing cover during droughts. The Rural Productive Safety Net Project (RPSNP) supports the evolution of the Government’s umbrella Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) that has been in operation for the last 12 years and is one of the world’s largest safety net programs in the world. Run by the Government, the PSNP pools money from 11 donors, including $600 million of World Bank Group IDA funds. The PSNP provides regular cash or food transfers to 8 million people; currently 4 million of them are in areas affected by the ongoing drought. Its food-for-work component supports public works programs related to landscape restoration, irrigation, and agro-forestry” (World Bank, 2017).

So, when the World Bank gives this as a support of the government. You should take it serious and know the problems of the state. The need of financial support and to make sure drought doesn’t affect the starving citizens. EPRDF are doing badly and now the Forex Companies has to pay of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) for the debt to Enterprise in Djibouti. Look!

Foreign Forex Woes:

“The directive of foreign currency allocation entails all banks must sell foreign currency to a sector whose importance is very high. The banks are required to give priority to payments authorized by the central bank such as foreign loan, supplier’s credits, interest, profit, dividend and excess sales of foreign airlines. Hence, all banks are required to sell the currency collected from importers, although the current direction is high, according to a banker with almost two decades of experience. “Even though I agree with the fact that we shared the responsibilities with CBE,” said one of the vice president of a mid-sized bank. “But requesting such amount of Forex in a short time might lead to crisis.” Yohannes Ayalew (PhD), vice governor and chief economist of the central bank, disagrees. “It is a collective responsibility of all banks whether the call was quick or not,” said Yohannes. “There is no reason to ask CBE to cover all the payments.” The Forex shortage in the country has been haunting the country for years. Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, in his press conference with local media nine months ago, admitted that the Forex crunch would last for the coming two decades” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

NBE Directive to pay of debt to Djibouti:

“National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) gave order to private banks in Ethiopia to pay the 15 million USD bill the Ethiopian Shipping Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE) to Djibouti’s company. The banks are, according to Fortune, given 3 days to sell the foreign currency to the Enterprise. The order is said to have come when the entire country is in short of foreign exchange. The shortage came following the drop in the country’s export performance and remittance earnings. ESLSE owes the money to the port of Djibouti and the central bank gave the order for every bank including the government owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE)” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

“Beset by the ever expanding informal channels of remittance, Ethiopia may continue to grapple with shortage of hard currency unless swift and collective measures are put in place, ‘Scaling up Formal Remittance to Ethiopia’ report discloses. A billion dollar transaction takes place via informal channels with 78 percent of the total remittance passing through informal networks in Ethiopia. Some experts believe that the transfer of money through unregulated channels will also likely result in illicit financial flow and dealings. The seizure of 541,659 USD around Harar is a recent indication of informal corridors of hard currency. Informal channels happen to be lophooles for global terrorism and corruption. It will open doors for illegal activities, people may use it to collect huge sums of money for their own dangerous causes, says Ethiopian Financial Security Director General Gemecu Weyema” (Gebrehiwot, 2017).

All of these articles proves the problems of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and their lacking foreign exchange. This has become a problem as the remittance hasn’t come through the formal channels, as the informal economy are big in Ethiopia. Together with drop of foreign exports that has also hurt the amount of exchange.

Clearly, the government of Ethiopia has a bigger problem that they want to reveal, as the NBE and the Foreign Exchange is plummeting. Therefore, the need at the same time for World Banks loans. Shows the dire situation of the economy. It is not like the Ethiopian News Agency would speak ill of own government and their policies. Since, the propaganda of own growth are more important, than actually telling about the weakness of the economy. This is a reality since the financial policy of Forex Exchange is in favor of the NBE.

This can also make it more profitable to for an informal market, instead of in the open market. The Ethiopian government really needs foreign exchange to pay of debt and use all their means. Instead, they are trying to cover-up their troubles, as they have debt to Enterprise in Djibouti and have troubles with the famine caused by drought. Peace.

Reference:

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopian Government Orders Private Banks to Cover ESLSE Forex Needs’ (12.09.2017) link: https://www.ezega.com/News/NewsDetails/4679/Ethiopian-Government-Orders-Private-Banks-to-Cover-ESLSE-Forex-Needs

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopia: NBE Ordered Banks to Cover ESLSE’s 15 Million USD Bill’ (13.09.2017) link: http://www.2merkato.com/news/alerts/5220-ethiopia-nbe-ordered-banks-to-cover-eslses-15-million-usd-bill

Ethiopia News Agency – ‘Gov’ts Need to Act Together to Achieve Economic Success: UNCTAD 2017 Report’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3705-gov-ts-need-to-act-together-to-achieve-economic-success-unctad-2017-report

Gebrehiwot, Desta – ‘Ethiopia: Informal Channels Raise Red Flag On Forex Earning’ (14.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201709140729.html

World Bank – ‘World Bank to Help Ethiopia Build a National Safety Net System as a More Effective Response to Droughts’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/09/14/world-bank-to-help-ethiopia-build-a-national-safety-net-system-as-a-more-effective-response-to-droughts

Drought-stricken herders in Ethiopia need urgent support (11.08.2017)

Pastoralist communities are facing huge losses of livestock.

ROME, Italy, August 11, 2017 – Supporting herders to get back on their feet and preventing further livestock losses and suffering are crucial in drought-hit Ethiopia where hunger has been on the rise this year, warned today the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Drought has devastated herders’ livelihoods as it exhausted pastures and water sources, leading to a significant number of animals dying or falling ill, particularly in the southern and southeastern regions of the country as other areas recover from previous seasons’ El Niño-induced drought.

Drought-hit pastoralists face reduced milk production, rising malnutrition, and have limited income-earning capacity and severely constrained access to food.

Some 8.5 million people – one in 12 people – are now suffering from hunger; of these, 3.3 million people live in Somali Region.

The current food and nutrition crisis is significantly aggravated by the severe blow to pastoral livelihoods. For livestock-dependent families, the animals can literally mean the difference between life and death, especially for children, pregnant and nursing women for whom milk is a crucial source of nutrition.

With up to 2 million animals lost so far, FAO is focusing on providing emergency livestock support to the most vulnerable pastoralist communities through animal vaccination and treatment, supplementary feed and water, rehabilitating water points, and supporting fodder and feed production.

“It is crucial to provide this support between now and October – when rains are due – to begin the recovery process and prevent further losses of animals. If we don’t act now, hunger and malnutrition will only get worse among pastoral communities,” said Abdoul Karim Bah, FAO Deputy Representative in Ethiopia.

By providing supplementary feed and water for livestock, while at the  same time supporting fodder production, FAO seeks to protect core breeding animals and enable drought-hit families to rebuild their livelihoods. Animal health campaigns will be reinforced to protect animals, particularly before the rains set in, when they are at their weakest and more susceptible to parasites or infectious diseases. FAO-supported destocking and cash-for-work programmes will also provide a crucial source of cash for families.

Funding appeal

FAO urgently requires US$ 20 million between August and December to come to the aid of Ethiopia’s farmers and herders.

FAO has already assisted almost 500,000 drought-hit people in 2017 through a mix of livestock feed provision, destocking and animal health interventions, thanks to the support of the Ethiopia Humanitarian Fund, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden through FAO’s Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund, as well as FAO’s own Early Warning Early Action fund and Technical Cooperation Programme.

FAO issues alert over third consecutive failed rainy season, worsening hunger in East Africa (14.07.2017)

Number of people needing humanitarian assistance on the rise.

ROME, Italy, July 14, 2017 – Poor rains across East Africa have worsened hunger and left crops scorched, pastures dry and thousands of livestock dead – according to an alert released today by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The most affected areas, which received less than half of their normal seasonal rainfall, are central and southern Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya, northern Tanzania and northeastern and southwestern Uganda.

The alert issued by FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) warns that the third consecutive failed rainy season has seriously eroded families’ resilience, and urgent and effective livelihood support is required.

“This is the third season in a row that families have had to endure failed rains – they are simply running out of ways to cope,” said FAO’s Director of Emergencies Dominique Burgeon. “Support is needed now before the situation rapidly deteriorates further.”

Increasing humanitarian need

The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in the five aforementioned countries, currently estimated at about 16 million, has increased by about 30 percent since late 2016. In Somalia, almost half of the total population is food insecure. Timely humanitarian assistance has averted famine so far but must be sustained. Conditions across the region are expected to further deteriorate in the coming months with the onset of the dry season and an anticipated early start of the lean season.

The food security situation for pastoralists is of particular concern, in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, where animal mortality rates are high and milk production from the surviving animals has declined sharply with negative consequences on food security and nutrition.

“When we know how critical milk is for the healthy development of children aged under five, and the irreversible damage its lack can create, it is evident that supporting pastoralists going through this drought is essential,” said Burgeon.

Livestock prices have plummeted because of poor animal body conditions and this, coupled with soaring cereal prices, has severely constrained pastoralists’ access to food.  Rangeland and livestock conditions are expected to further deteriorate at least until the next rainy season starts in October.

Poor crop prospects

In several cropping areas across the region, poor rains have caused sharp reductions in planting, and wilting of crops currently being harvested. Despite some late rainfall in May, damage to crops is irreversible.

In addition, fall armyworm, which has caused extensive damage to maize crops in southern Africa, has spread to the east and has worsened the situation. In Kenya, the pest has so far affected about 200 000 hectares of crops, and in Uganda more than half the country’s 111 districts are affected.

In Somalia there are unfavourable prospects for this year’s main gu crops, after the gu rains were late with poor rainfall and erratic distribution over most areas of the country. In the Lower Shabelle region, the main maize producing area, seasonal rainfall was about 50 percent below- average and drought conditions are currently affecting up to 85 percent of the cropland.

In Ethiopia, unfavourable belg rains in southern cropping areas are likely to result in localized cereal production shortfalls. Drought is also affecting yields in Kenya’s central, southeastern and coastal areas. In Tanzania, unfavourable rains are likely to result in localized cereal production shortfalls in northern and central areas, while in Uganda there are unfavourable production prospects are unfavourable for first season crops in the southwestern and northern districts.

Cereal prices are surging, driven by reduced supplies and concerns over the performance of current-season crops. Prices in May were at record to near-record levels in most markets and up to double their year-earlier levels.

Ethiopia: Food insecurity intensifies despite late Gu and Belg season rainfall (24.05.2017)

Key Messages

• Despite enhanced rainfall at the end of April into early May over many areas of Ethiopia, food security outcomes are still expected to deteriorate, particularly in southern and southeastern pastoral areas due to the late start, erratic, and below-average Gu/Genna rains. In portions of Somali Region, the accelerated loss of livestock has significantly expanded food consumption gaps, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in the absence of sustained assistance during June to September. In lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley and in East and West Hararghe, southern Tigray, and portions of northern Amhara, projected outcomes are expected to move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), beginning in June, due to low household purchasing power and a lack of confirmed humanitarian assistance.
• Late Gu/Genna season rainfall has partially rejuvenated water points for both livestock and human consumption across some woredas of Somali Region, and improved water availability has been reported in Borena and Guji zones of Oromia and South Omo in southern SNNPR. However, the rainfall has not continued into mid-May, and the short-term forecast indicates only moderate rainfall as the season concludes. The current marginal improvements in pasture and water are likely to be depleted by early June, which will mean rangeland resources will rapidly decline, and subsequently livestock body conditions and productivity, until the Deyr/Hageya season in October.
• Over most Belg-producing areas of the country, extended dry spells through much of April suppressed the growth of Belg crops as well as Meher long-cycle crops. As a result, even if the Belg rains continue through the end of May, lower yields are likely for maize crops in particular, especially in lowland areas of SNNPR along the Rift Valley. Due to late planting, the green and dry Belg maize harvest in SNNPR is likely to be delayed by more than two months. Poor households are already experiencing constrained food access as they are highly market dependent during the peak of the lean season. Staple food prices, especially for maize, remain atypically higher.
• The 2017 HRD initially estimated that 5.6 million people needed humanitarian assistance through June 2017, but the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) has revised higher the number to 7.81 million. In addition, the NDRMC has projected that in Belg-dependent areas, additional PSNP beneficiaries past the traditional six-month period of transfers will need extended support. The NDRMC, JEOP, and WFP completed the first two distribution rounds, and the third round is underway. However, there are logistical constraints that might impede timely distributions.