






Is the line working? Are there someone answering on the other side? Did we dial the number correctly? Is the East African Community (EAC) functional or is a front?
I don’t know… but things aren’t splendid at the moment. There are several of cases pending and issues going on, which says otherwise. While the EAC Secretariat is busy pleading to the nations of finding amicable responses. There is little to no feedback or concern about these statements.
Yes, the Tanzanian authorities barred Kenyan Airways today. While Kenyan high ranking officials had spoken ill of the Rwandan regime and they wanted another sort of apology in return, which we have never heard. The Ugandan authorities on the other hand has suspended the imports of petrol through Kenya and has sued the Kenya cartels in the EAC Courts.
The Democratic Republic of Congo have on the other hand gone after Rwanda and said if it doesn’t stop the “proxy war” inside the DRC. Kinshasa might invade Kigali in the future. That’s not a good look for the EAC and having the DRC as one of the newest members of it.
Burundi has also dwelled into murky waters over a “claimed” Rwandan supported proxy militia attacking on Burundian soil. Which has resulted in the closure of borders to Rwanda and suspending diplomatic ties with Kigali. Therefore, things aren’t looking good.
Neither of these things are new in the EAC. There been closure of borders between Uganda-Rwanda in past. There been blockade of trading certain goods between Uganda-Kenya like Chickens. The Kenyan authorities has blocked certain trades with Somalia, which has also become a member of the EAC. Therefore, there is no common market or protocol that opens up for a true free flow of goods, yet.
The ones leading the EAC must have a headache. There is no solemn peace or gratitude. Only more grievances and more work to fix things. The South Sudanese and the President in Juba must feel the plight of the chair. This time around it isn’t only fixing on issue or a diplomatic spat over some contested rock or policy. No, it is real life consequences and things that can spiral out of hand. There is guns and money involved here and this is why President Kiir needs advisors who can navigate this with care.
The EAC needs mediation and better one than the ones that issued after the 2015 General Elections in Burundi. The Inter-Dialogue that was sponsored there was fruitless and hot-air, which is why the CNDD-FDD isn’t caring about transparency or accountability for its actions. This will not help when Juba calls Gitega and asks for a mediation process between them and Kigali. No, this here will be a prolonged stalemate, unless Mbeki or someone Goodluck Jonathan or something comes with some magic juices to salvage the hurt of the parties.
Alas, that will be needed between Tanzania-Kenya, Uganda is using the mechanisms, but at the same time Nairobi cannot be kiddy about the claims or the end-game. As Dodoma is getting the cash and the export-tariffs through it’s ports instead.
The DRC-Rwanda will be a forever debacle and as long the historical ties between proxies and Kigali exists. This will not be sorted out by the EAC and the EAC Force is already history. The SADC has come in, but we don’t know if it will stop the insurgency or the militias operating in the DRC. Most likely it will not as it has been a root cause of evil for decades now and foreign operates has profited of the slaughter and the “blood resources” of the DRC. That never changes and the EAC will not be able to stop that either.
The EAC seems like a good idea on paper, but when it lack resources, manpower and an army to run it. There is little to add weight other than the President residing on the throne temporarily and the hopes of good gestures. There is a need for humility and respect of fellow peers, but that’s maybe to much to ask, as the rising arrogance and self-serving interests are more important than winning hearts across the border. That’s why neighbours spats and we are seeing these acts happening in our time.
The EAC is maybe crumbling, but that’s not Kiir’s or the South Sudanese fault. They are just at the helm at the wrong time. The ones in office and who carries the heavy load. At one point they might have wished better fortunes, but this is the cards they are dealt.
It is not fair and it never is. There is a need for redemption and for talks. If the parties will, it would be splendid. The cases between Kenya-Uganda and Tanzania-Kenya could be settled rather easily, but the ones between DRC-Rwanda and Burundi-Rwanda is much more hostile. These will take some serious negotiations and dialogue, which would need foreign intervention or possible respected statesmen from far away to support the talks. Peace.




“the Burundian minister in charge of internal affairs says #Burundi has suspended all relations with the Rwandan president. “Paul Kagame is a bad neighbor. We have suspended all relations with him until he comes to his senses. He has unhealthy plans” (…) ““He is harboring criminals who are destabilizing #Burundi. All criminals go through his country!”, accused Mr. Niteretse” (SOS Medias Burundi, 11.01.2024).
In a hasty reaction from the CNDD-FDD and the elite of Bujumbura/Gitega, the Burundian government has now closed their borders with Rwanda and suspended all relations with Kigali. This is a result of prolonged tensions and questions of insurgency from the parties.
While Rwanda and the regime in Kigali has claimed not be involved or directly sponsoring it. We know by facts and historical patterns, that the Rwandan authorities or army has helped proxy militias with bases within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to attack and muster force. Which is what the President and the leaders of Burundi has claimed. They have claimed the Rwandan government have sponsored the Red-Tabara and their cause to uproot the CNDD-FDD in Burundi. Therefore, now it isn’t about dialogue or talks, but action from the Burundian counterparts.
The Rwandan government have come out with a custom statement and “regretted” the decision made by Burundi. However, it hasn’t addressed the counter-claims or the reasons for the closure. Only used free flow of people and business as motivation for the “sadness” of the border closure. Which is interesting in itself.
We have seen how this played out and was a prolonged agony between Rwanda and Uganda not long ago. As the Republic’s stood tall on their principals and needed lots of talks to eventually open up the borders again. The same will be most likely happening here, as they need talks in Luanda and elsewhere to get into a feasible agreement. However, I wouldn’t count on it coming anytime soon. As these things are fickle.
The Burundian President wants to show force and that he can handle his office. He wants to extol power and be at the helm. That’s what he needs right now and the skirmishes or attacks on Burundian soil is damaging his reputation as a leader. That’s why this is a response. We cannot with certainty say that the Rwandan authorities or army is supporting Red-Tabara or other militias, which could attack Burundi. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary in 2024…
Alas, that is where Kagame has a problem. We know and he knows that we know. Even if he isn’t responsible for this. His been in the past elsewhere and he has had his men on the ground in the DRC fighting his battles. That’s just a mere fact and he could easily have another proxy hurting his nemesis and advisory in Bujumbura. Because, why not? He did so in Kinshasa, so why not with another neighbour?
Well, that is just mere speculation, but with this knowledge and past aggression. I cannot blame Burundi for acting like this. They are answering Kigali and we know Rwanda will act like a victim. While they should look into the grievances and possibly address it. Especially, if they are concerned about the suspension of ties and closure of borders. That’s up to Kigali to answer the call and find ways to up-ease Bujumbura. However, I wouldn’t count on it.
The EAC won’t matter much here and neither IGAD. The AU will not know how to grasp this and therefore, this will a long stalemate. Peace.


