“Political Bureau of the SPLM-IO rejects the declaration of General Simon Gatwech Dual as the new interim leader of the SPLM/A-IO. The highest organ of the opposition group met to discuss the recent defection of Gatwech & removal of former sector 1 commander Gen. Johnson Olony” (Radio Miraya, 05.08.2021).
“According the SPLM/A IO (Kitgwang) Spokesperson
– Two Generals loyal to Dr. Riek Machar Teny have been killed but their name will not be announce/identify due to security reason.
– Almost all heavy artilleries, tanks and vehicles from Machar IO have been captured in good condition.
– Dr. Riek Machar was the one who ordered his forces to attack and take Magenis, said Prisoners” (South Sudan TMZ, 07.08.2021).
All of this is happening as there is 30 people who is reported dead and 13 injured. The reports of the warfare and skirmishes between the parties of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).
This is happening after Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual last month in a statement declared the end of the reign of Dr. Riek Machar in the party. However, the Political Bureau of the SPLM/A-IO rejected that and they have now openly rebelled.
Gen. Gatcwech Dual was the Chief of Staff, but has started to rebel with other allies in the Upper Nile. They are now doing in-fighting. This seems to become yet another rebel outfit. There are already others out there by Gen. Paul Malong and Lt. Gen. Thomas Cirillo Swaka. It would be yet another general creating his army. This is happening as the launch of another called South Sudan Patriotic Movement/Army (SSPM/A). Therefore, Gatwech Dual will have his loyal followers and fellow soldiers, which comes out from SPLM/A-IO. However, this is not a game of strength.
The peace agreement and R-ARCSS doesn’t need more men with arms. It needs people around the table and fix the mechanisms for a peaceful transition. This is just being in-fighting and not resolving things internally within the SPLM/A-IO. That is partly Dr. Machar’s fault, as he haven’t settled it or resolved the grudges. That’s why his generals are spiking it and suddenly turning violent.
The First Vice President (FVP) Machar needs to look at himself and what needs to be done. Everyone is triggering easily the guns, instead of going to the negotiation table. That isn’t what people should see. The mentality is out of whack and innocent is usually the ones who pays the ultimate price.
If Machar knew this was floated and had ideas of the possible brewing sentiments. Instead of letting it boil over. Everyone who follows saw the declaration and that should have been the moment he triggered some talks and fixed the issues the General had. However, Machar let it instead go a long time and now the blood has been spilled. All over a title and a rank within the SPLM/A-IO.
This here should be a humbling experience for Machar. That he has to act more directly and be with his leaders. It seems like something has gotten out his way and this is why the skirmishes has happened.
Machar needs to fix it and rapidly. This is his mess to begin with. It is his rebellion and they have targeted the SPLM/A-IO directly. They haven’t gone after the National Army or any other rebel outfit. No, they have gone for the head and to signal the throne.
This is why he has do something and not just expel them, but maybe even parley, as this shouldn’t be an incident, which can assault and destroy the R-ARCSS. Then its all Machar fault and he can be pointed at for a total failure. That is something I doubt he wants to be remembered for. Since this was his men and allies who went at him. This might hurt him and humiliate him. However, the deaths and the violence should be a reason to whatever he can to silence the guns. Peace.
It is a noble idea to have an Arms Embargo in South Sudan, as the civil war and the never-ending negotiations of peace is continuing, even as the Khartoum Declaration and Outstanding Issues are working in tandem, even as the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum have sort of failed and only given the republic empty promises. As the partners haven’t agreed totally or even respected the cease-fire starting on the 1st July 2018. There still been skirmishes and attacks, which wasn’t supposed to appear.
With this in mind the negotiation and peace dialogue in Entebbe haven’t been fruitful or delivered. In this spirit it isn’t weird, as he has been a starch supporter of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU). That has been proven in the past, latest in February, when he promised to serve weapons to Kiir, even if there was imposed an embargo. Therefore, his words yesterday are important. Also show the provisions of the Arms Embargo in the end.
In February 2018:
“I want to you tell this, and whether you believe it or not, the government will never fail to acquire weapons by any means. What the foreign countries, including the United States of America, are doing is a pursuit of regime change which nobody will entertain even in America,” said a presidential aide asked what actually was the message Ugandan envoy had delivered. “Nobody will accept that a democratically elected government be changed through the force or by an imposed agreement,” he further told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity” (…) “President Museveni is indeed a friend of the people of South Sudan. He sent the special message for two purposes. One, he assured his excellency, General Salva Kiir Mayardit of the support of the people and the government of the Republic of Uganda to the people and the Republic of South Sudan. His Excellency President Museveni gave the assurance of highest support in this situation. Two, in case of sanctions, the government of Uganda would do its best to ensure all weapons and associated services destined to South Sudan are facilitated,” he said” (Sudan Tribune, 2018).
In July 2018:
“Museveni told the United Kingdom minister for armed forces Col. Mark Lancaster that an arms embargo will not help in the peace process. “Mr Museveni told his guests that imposing sanctions on South Sudan will not help in finding a solution to that country’s challenges adding that observation of ceasefire by the warring groups, security reform and working to have elections, among others, will help the country move towards peace,” Museveni told Col. Lancaster, according to a statement released by Uganda State House.
United Nations Arms Embargo:
“Arms Embargo “4. Decides that, until 31 May 2019, all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the territory of South Sudan from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned; and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories;” (…) “8. Calls upon all Member States, in particular States neighbouring South Sudan, to inspect, in accordance with their national authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, in particular the law of the sea and relevant international civil aviation agreements, all cargo to South Sudan, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution for the purpose of ensuring strict implementation of these provisions” (…) “9. Decides to authorize all Member States to, and that all Member States shall, upon discovery of items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution, seize and dispose (such as through destruction, rendering inoperable, storage or transferring to a State other than the originating or destination States for disposal) of such items, and decides further that all Member States shall cooperate in such efforts” (UNSC, 2018).
As you have seen, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has promised arms, even if there is an embargo and he will secure weapons for the conflict. That is how he is, he doesn’t care about the conflict or the innocent lives taken by it. He is the war-lord earning fortunes on the trade of arms and being a beacon in the midst of the conflict. It is a win-win, he get to sell weapons and be part of the peace-process. Which I find amazing.
That the African Union and East African Community is using Museveni is boggling me, when he has no trouble offering weapons and arms to the TGoNU and Kiir government. So, when he is such a partner to the Juba Administration, while it is negotiations and having dialogue with the rebels and other outfits. It doesn’t make sense.
He will not follow the Arms Embargo, as he has promised to help Kiir. Therefore, the UN shouldn’t just call upon, they should also sanction them for trading arms with South Sudan. That is why the Embargo has little value, as long as the Ugandan government are friendly and will do business with the TGoNU. They will serve the needs and sell to earn big-business in Juba on the arms-trade.
Museveni doesn’t fear the UN or the Member States, they are in his favor with refugees and peacekeepers elsewhere. So, if he breaks Arms Embargo and sanctions, he know he won’t get scrutinized or even pay for violations. That is why he will do it too. Peace.
South Sudan News Agency – ‘Ugandan President asks UN to drop South Sudan arms embargo’ 14.07.2018 link: http://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2018/07/14/ugandan-president-asks-un-to-drop-south-sudan-arms-embargo/
Sudan Tribune – ‘Museveni tells South Sudan not to worry from U.S. sanctions’ (11.02.2018) link: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64703
United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – ‘Adopting Resolution 2428 (2018), Security Council Extends Sanctions on South Sudan’ 13.07.2018 link: https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/adopting-resolution-2428-2018-security-council-extends-sanctions-south-sudan
In South Sudan the prolonged civil war is continuing and with the fresh dialogue between the parties didn’t help. Some had hope that the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – In Government (SPLM-IG) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) under the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. He has been ruling and with an iron fist. While the main opposition leader and rebel Dr. Riek Machar are running the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). There is also a coalition of other rebels and opposition, who is the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) of 8 political parties/militias, some of them are run by big men like Dr. Lam Akol (National Democratic Movement – NDM) and Gen. Thomas C. Swaka (National Salvation Front – NAS).
Therefore, the knowledge of delegations from SSOA, TGoNU and SPLM/A-IO in the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) that has failed as even the house-arrested Machar couldn’t mend the fences or the idea of peaceful progress. That means the army and militias will continue to fight until they got supremacy.
Some people had hope as Ethiopian Government hosted this 32nd Extra-Ordinary Session in Addis Ababa and the shared arrangement to work on the “Revised Bridging Proposal” for all the stakeholders in the conflict as IGAD prepared for the dialogue this week. Still, that did not make it easier. They have the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) &Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM). All of these are interfering and monitoring the Republic. This combined with all the NGOs and Bilateral Organizations who support as well. Therefore, the international community is involved in the process. They are bookkeeping and securing needed services in the midst of the civil war, even footing the bills for it all. So the TGoNU can continue their fighting against their opposition.
This combined with various agreements that has not been kept, cease fire violations and such. These War-Lords really has no plan of quitting. They are preoccupied with the continued conflict and the looting of the Republic. There major resources being squandered away, not only seen by the Sentry in their reports, but the Kenyan bloggers are looking into the money laundering and estates owned by the War-Lords from South Sudan. Clearly, they are preoccupied with earning money on the toils and tears created by the conflict. That is why they are afraid of their future if the conflict ends. The guns are speaking their language. Even as the people are still lingering in refugee camps abroad and the Republic has no solution. The leadership isn’t hungry for peace, it is hungry to overcome its advisory.
At this point as the years lingers and the leaders continue to eat of the poverty, the famine and civil-wars, even as the state is bankrupt, creating higher bank-notes and the international community is footing the bills for development and needed supplies in refugee camps. This is clearly not the intention. But that is the sad reality as the innocent are dying and is afraid. The own leadership are holding this on. They are violating agreements or stifling it. If they are not getting their way, they are picking up guns or sending tanks to their yards. That is what happen in 2016, when the 2015 Agreement was starting to be established. However, that only lasted months before the new fresh conflict we are seeing today. Since then, there has been more deflections and more creations of new outfits who wants both Machar and Kiir to step down. However, none of them seems to fit the bill.
The state of affairs is sad. The people deserve peace, but War-Lords are busy finding ways to outsmart the enemies. Instead of dialogue and building real bridges, they are instead blowing them up hoping no-one finds out.
The people of South Sudan deserves better, but the leadership is busy killing each other and trying only to use ammunition to do so. They are not interested in talking. They know the trigger and is ready to aim. Peace.