Opinion: Mao – A deal is a deal and these are the cards your dealt…

“President Museveni has said the Memorandum of Understanding that the NRM signed with Democratic Party in July did not include any agreement on political transition. In an interview with NBS TV which will be aired tonight, Museveni said Norbert Mao, the DP president general, was brought on board as a strategy to “bring the opposition into government” but not to oversee any form of political transition” (Josephine Namakumbi – ‘Museveni: “My deal with Mao does not include political transition”’ 17.10.2022, Nile Post).

The secret and sudden agreement between the National Resistance Movement and Democratic Party shocked the Republic when it happened. Certainly, certain aspects of it was in the cards. That has been shown ever since. However, DP Party President Norbert Mao has over-promised his reach. The agreement has been made like this for a reason. To not give him overreaching power or mandate, which would be out of control for His Excellency.

President Museveni would never ever trade away his leverage or his office. Neither would he be foolish enough to risk his stay in power. He fought a war to get it and he never intends to leave. Mao can make all the wishes he wants, but the initial agreement is obvious. The stipulated article, which is in the realms of reform is clear. There are opening for electoral reforms and constitutional reforms on Parliamentary Term, but nothing stipulated about the a political transition. That’s not in the picture and the President isn’t lying. Secondly, who would be bold enough to suggest that while making an agreement? When he has shown no intention of doing so since the 1980s….

Read Article 17 of the July Agreement:

“17. Beyond these stated areas of cooperation, it is also the Government’s intention to work with political parties from across Parliament (including the Opposition) on issues that affect our democracy, including the recommendations of the Supreme Court on Electoral Reforms. Recommendations made to the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Committee on Constitutional Reforms and the length of the Parliamentary term” (NRM DP Agreement, July 2022).

Then the day-dreaming of Mao:

“The Democratic Party president general and Minister of Constitutional Affairs, Mr Norbert Mao, has asked youth to prepare for a peaceful transition of power in 2031. Mr Mao, who was speaking at the belated Youth Day celebrations at Bubangizi Secondary School playground at Mitooma on Saturday, where vice president Jessica Alupo was the chief guest, said the President gave him the assignment of ensuring a peaceful transition” (Felix Ainebyoona & Milton Bandiho – ‘I’m preparing Uganda for peaceful transfer of power – Mao’, 03.10.2022, Daily Monitor).

I have a hard time seeing Mao or the DP being able to pull it off. The agreement in other articles stipulates that the parties needs to consult before putting forward legislation. Secondly, there is supposed to be “no surprises” and private minister bill. Meaning Mao has to consult the President before doing anything. That is according to the agreement they both signed off. Meaning in the end, Mao’s hands are tied and he needs to get guidance before moving. He cannot act on his own accord or after his whims. No, he has to follow stipulations and get vouched for before putting forward any sort of reform or political transition for that matter.

Last fact is that Museveni only signed off on possible Electoral Reform and amendments of the Constitution. However, he cannot do so with a shocking twist or without coordination or consultation of the NRM. This means that he has to follow quorum and protocol before doing so.

Mao can lie about these things, but that’s doesn’t make it more true. Usually, I tend to think that Museveni lies. Because, he does that a lot and speak half-truths too. However, in this instance… Mao is naked and he forgotten his own agreements or proposed agenda. Peace.

Uganda: Kisembo Ronex Tendo, former EALA MP Candidate letter to President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni – Re: Grievances Arising from the Recently Concluded Elections for Uganda’s Representatives in the 5th East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) – (03.10.2022)

EALA Elections: NRM wins 8 out of 9 [and DP get the final seat]

“UPDATE: The elected EALA representatives and the votes attained.

Akol Rose Okullu 422

Namara Denis 415

Kakooza James 405

Odongo George Stephen 403

Paul Mwasa 401

Kadogo Babirye Veronica 383

Mugenyi Mary 367

Amongin Jacquiline 338

Siranda Gerald 233” (NilePost, 29.09.2022).

My prediction got hit with one seat in the East African Legislation Assembly (EALA) Members of Parliament (MP). The one I thought was a go was the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Fred Ebil. He didn’t get his seat and the UPC lost their seat in the EALA this period. Now, there is only National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Democratic Party (DP) who has EALA MPs in the 5^th Assembly.

Today, the NRM got their 6 candidates, which was anticipated. They got in addition two more “independent” candidates. So, in the numbers they got 8 out of 9. Jacqueline Amongin is a member of the NRM and a Pan African Parliament (PAP) Member too. So, she has represented Uganda on a NRM ticket already. Now she ran as an “independent” but everyone should know that she is associated and a member of the NRM.

The second “independent” Babirye Veronica Kadogo was the Woman Representative in the 10^th Parliament for the NRM in Buyende District. She lost her re-election bid in the General Election in 2021. She ran as an “independent” but certainly is connected to the NRM as well. To think otherwise is naive at this point.

That’s why it’s only Gerald Siranda who is from another party, the DP. The DP who had this in their agreement with the NRM. The DP-NRM Agreement had this stipulation and Siranda takes over the seat after two terms for Mbidde. Therefore, the DP gets a seat and an EALA MP.

While we saw a boycott from the National Unity Platform (NUP). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) had a candidate that was bound to loose. Justice Forum (JEEMA) also lost, which was also scheduled to happen, as it is associated with the NUP. However, the shocker was that UPC lost their seat and didn’t get Ebil elected. Especially, since the NRM was supposed to back the UPC with this seat, but that was hallow.

The opposition didn’t really loose much. They had nothing to get to begin with. The NRM was bound for a pyrrhic victory, but today was just a painful exercise. The Speaker decided to have an early poll before the deliberations in the plenary session. This is creating the possibility for “pre-ticked ballots” and open rigging. Which is just foolish, because the NRM got the majority in the 11^th Parliament and this would be a walkover.

The ones that should feel betrayed is the UPC. They are surely not valued and isn’t getting real support. That is the party which has made agreements with the NRM. Now, their dialogue and such isn’t considered. That is saying something. We can see that Mao and DP got their way. However, the UPC was kicked out by NRM leaning “independent’s”. Peace.

Opinion: The EALA MPs race is already finished

The ones expecting any sort of shocks or sudden changes in the East African Legislative Assembly Members of Parliament (MP) race will be in a dire loss. The EALA MP race which is already scheduled will most likely be a settled affair already.

It is the MPs that elects them and the majority will go to the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The NRM has already 6 candidates or Flag-Bearers and you should expect all of them to be settled in. The Democratic Party (DP) will get one MP as that was signed off in the DP-NRM agreement, which was signed of earlier in the year. That means 6 of the 9 slots is already taken. Further, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should also get a candidate in for their loyalty and working relationship with NRM. That means 8 of the 9 MPs are already elected without much say. The last will be to a NRM leaning Independent and a “vetted” one like that. This is what you should expect and anything else would be weird at this point.

The NRM will have the majority and that is reflected in the NRM Caucus with their 6 Candidates. This is an easy pick and securing plum-jobs to former MPs and Ministers who has lost out. That’s why the EALA is a nice place for them to be put. When there is no parastatal or government entities to get appointed into. Therefore, the EALA is a well fitting place to do so.

The others are giving favourable and friendly parties of the Parliament a “shout-out” or “props” for their loyalty. They are getting a EALA MP slot and that’s why its easy to see the 6+2 or 8, which is al but missing 1 of the EALA MPs.

That Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is fielding a flag-bearer is futile. The same can be said about whoever the National Unity Platform (NUP) would pick or have in this role. The Justice Forum (JEEMA) has also a flag-bearer, but that person will not go nowhere either. As the JEEMA has been an ally of the People Power and the NUP. So, with that in mind these parties candidates will go nowhere. There is no way that the majority of the Parliament will give them way. They are really wasting their time and only playing into the procedural games of the state. Yes, they have a right to have a flag-bearer or a EALA MP candidate, but it’s totally pointless. The opposition could have the best man or woman. They could have the incarnated saviour of the planet and all souls. That person still wouldn’t have a chance, because the NRM has decided and there is no turning back.

The FDC, NUP and JEEMA has no chance here. They should just give up. The DP and UPC will get the other spots. There is little chances for the independent candidates in this race, if any. Yes there is a talk of 15 MP candidates, but as long as you don’t have suction or pre-arranged agreements. These shouldn’t expect much. They are fillers on a paper or if even that…

The ones believing this will be free and fair elections. I hate to say it’s partly sealed already. The only last seat is what is unknown. While that one will most likely go to a NRM leaning Independent and someone in favour of the NRM without being on it’s ticket. That meaning all of the 9 of 9 EALA MPs.

The ones thinking the FDC, NUP or JEEMA has a shot at this… well, I cannot see it happening. It isn’t like the NRM or the ones in power has allowed that before. No, they rather see their own there and no one else. The only reason why UPC and DP has a chance, is because of their working arrangements with the NRM. That’s why they are getting favour and office. Not because of their representation or the will of the people. No, it’s because of ceremonial reasons between the NRM and their allies. There is nothing else too this. Peace.

A DP MP plea for sanity: Where is the DP MPs placed in the order of Parliament Procedure…?

Today there might a talk after Democratic Party MP Michael Lulume Bayigga have issued a statement for the plenary session dated back to the 18^th August 2022. Where the main grievances are if the DP is an “opposition” or a “government” party now. That means the 4 DP MPs has to sit with the NRM and not in Opposition. Neither can the DP MP partake in Opposition activities in the Parliament either.

This here is obvious questions and should have been resolved with the ushering in of DP Chairman Norbert Mao becoming the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs. Nevertheless, that has never been settled. This is why the MP has to issue this statement and get some answers.

One part that is really amusing and compelling about the agreement is this one: “We would like to state categorically clearly that we have never been part of a Party process that sanctioned any negotiations or Consultations to get the impugned agreement done, Hon Speaker, peaceful assembling organs of the Democratic Party were disperscd by the Uganda Police Force while scores of others were arrested on the 4th August at Tal Cottages in Rubaga” (Lulume Bayigga, 18.08.2022).

So, this undermines the agreement, as it was a solo-mission and expedition for the Chairman to get political relevance. Since, he was lingering on the outskirts of politics and only held some national relevance on the NBS TV Frontline show. The rest of the time he made statements and political aligned quotes on his Twitter. That’s about it.

He further states: “Hon. Speaker, whereas some of us sit on the National Executive Committee and

the National Council; which are the decision making organs of the Party, We state unequivocally and in no uncertain terms that neither the National Executive Committee, the National Council nor the Parliament Group has ever sanctioned a process of Negotiation for Cooperation agreement between DP and NRM at all” (Lulume Bayigga, 18.08.2022).

When an MP addresses the NRM-DP agreement like this. It really says something about what went on and how Mao himself made it happen. He didn’t inform or concerned about the party itself. It was only his own making and getting a title. The Chairman ensured his own safe-haven and a Ministry of his choosing. That’s how it looks, especially, when an MP from his own party writes this statement and wants it discussed by Parliament.

The MP wants also know “which side are they on”… if they are still Opposition or Government now. If the DP MPs can vote with the Opposition or is bound by an Agreement, which they didn’t sign off on. Because, if so… the DP MPs has to vote in concert with the NRM Party and cannot decide on their own. Also, if there will be any clarification to why the DP MPs are part of any Opposition Activities in the Parliament. That’s all that need to be addressed.

It is really fitting and wise decision to push this. Especially, when the MP seems to be pushed into a stance and place, which isn’t it’s own choosing. That is very apparent by the statement and the disappointment of not taking the party into consideration, as it made arrangement and an agreement with the NRM.

Here the MP shows how Mao did foul play with his own party. This is an interesting turn of events. I just wonder how this unfold in Parliament. Especially, knowing how partisan the Speaker and Deputy Speaker is. They are not considering anything else than the business of Mzee. So, it will be compelling to see how it will be handled. Because, this is surely a test of procedure and righteous test of the divide of who is “opposition” and who is “government”. Peace.