Zambia: A look into the Preliminary Election Statements by the African Union and the Commonwealth

After the polls and when the first results of the elections is trickling in, the Election Observer Missions are publishing their preliminary statements. These are done with caution and enlightening certain aspects of how it was done and what they saw. The missions varies in sizes and scope, that is why what findings they have might be limited. Still, these EOMs are usually very friendly tools to legitimize elections and secure the international community that the election was credible. That’s why they are there.

Now on the 12th August election in Zambia. The African Union and the Commonwealth have both dropped Preliminary Statements today on the 14th August and it’s interesting to look into them both. Discuss and see what they claim what happened. The AU statement was 11 pages and the Commonwealth was 16 pages long. A lot is procedure and how they we’re introduced by the government. So, not always so much flesh or blood to dive into.

However, there is always some gems and codes, which states what we can await from their final reports. These statements usually tends to reflect on the final report and what they will say about the elections in question.

The AU noted: “Evidence of the heightened political situation in the country can be seen from the spate of violence, hate speech and misinformation reportedly carried out by political parties supporters, particularly those from the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND), during the election campaigns. Concerns over the increased spate of violence prompted the deployment of the military for the first time during an electoral process” (AU, 14.08.2021).

While the Commonwealth noted: “A number of stakeholders we met expressed concerns about incidents of politically-motivated violence being perpetuated by cadres affiliated to the two major political parties, the PF and UPND. The incidents were isolated but they expressed the fear that they could become a generalised problem in the future. Some stakeholders questioned police impartiality, alleging bias in favour of governing party cadres” (Commonwealth, 14.08.2021).

The EOMs are both expressing what outsiders and insiders have told about. The clear indication of hate-speech towards the UPND and HH from the PF cadres. That has been very vicious and directed so loudly, that it has caused stir and headlines. While the violence has been used and sparked to give reason for the PF to claim the elections and tensions to contest the possible results. Still, it is nice that they both have seen what others has and speaks of it with concern.

The AU further states: “However, the Mission received reports from some stakeholders about inadequate consultation and provision of information by ECZ in the implementation of key electoral processes, which undermines public trust and confidence” (…) “While the Mission was informed that the previous voters’ register was outdated and contained an estimated 1.4 million deceased persons, concerns were raised over the accuracy and credibility of the new register. Stakeholders’ call for an independent audit of the new register to assess its comprehensiveness and accuracy were dismissed by the ECZ because there is no provision for this in the legal framework and that the register had already been exhibited and certified” (AU, 14.08.2021).

The Commonwealth stated: “However, several stakeholders including opposition political parties expressed concerns on the ability of the ECZ to conduct credible elections in an inclusive and transparent manner. Specifically, concerns were expressed about the registration process which was allegedly skewed in favour of the governing party” (Commonwealth, 14.08.2021).

Here we are seeing they are in accord and showing the same sentiment as well. That is really showing how things has gone and made it possible to question the elections integrity. But that is because, the reasons to question them is that the ruling party and the ones in-charge haven’t been accountable or transparent ahead of the polls. Not because the opposition has cheated, which will be the message of Lungu and PF.

The key statement from the AU like always: “Despite reports of the unlevelled playing field and politically motivated violence during the pre-electoral period, and Covid-19 related challenges, in general, AUEOM observers reported that Election Day operations were conducted in a peaceful, transparent and professional manner” (…) “The AUEOM commends the people of Zambia for their clear enthusiasm and determination to peacefully express their will through the ballot box. The Mission calls on all stakeholders to remain peaceful and calm while awaiting the announcement of final results by the Electoral Commission of Zambia. The Mission urges all political leaders and their supporters to not undertake any action that will undermine the peace and stability of the country” (14.08.2021).

The Commonwealth ends with: “It is our prayer that all political and electoral actors continue to act with diligence, transparency, inclusivity, and fairness as they handle the results processes and that the will of the Zambian people is preserved. Leaders should be magnanimous in victory and gracious in defeat. We call upon the Coalition for Peaceful Elections in Zambia, the Electoral Commission of Zambia, civil society, the media, and all valued stakeholders to play their role in fulfilling the expectations of the people for credible and peaceful elections” (Commonwealth, 14.08.2021).

We are seeing again similar sentiment and that’s reassuring, as the African Union and Commonwealth. That shows that the President cannot say it was rigged and fixed, as he tried to do that with the unlevelled playing field. Which he created and still couldn’t challenge the opposition. That is why his saying it now and contesting it. While the Elections Observation Mission (EOMs) is stating what the ones who has followed has seen and stating it. However, that doesn’t say that it still isn’t credible or an honest result. Even when the opposition has met these challenges, it still was capable to overcome it. That says more about the UPND and HH than it says about Lungu and his PF.

This isn’t over, but the preliminary statements was a reflection worth taking notes of and it shows what went down. They we’re also showing restraint and diplomatic in their languages, but that is common courtesy. These missions are also tending to be there to make an “uneven” affair into a “free and fair” election. Therefore, often these are safari missions to legitimize rigged affairs.

However, here we are seeing a fella and a party who tried to rig himself in. Is losing and now trying to question it. Yes, the EOMs are saying there was certain aspects, which wasn’t fair, but ironically all of those was ordered and fixed by the man claiming the elections was unfair. That’s why you know the will of the people isn’t his, but they have decided for someone else. Peace.

Zambia: State House – President Lungu declares General Election not free and fair (14.08.2021)

Zambia: HH and UNDP projected to win [and Lungu will cry havoc]

On the 12th August the General Election was held and now the results are coming in. The opposition party United Party for National Development (UPND) and their Presidential Candidate Hakainde Hichilema in winning comfortably. The incumbent Edgar Lungu and ruling party Patriotic Front is losing massively.

We knew things was going ugly when Lungu cried foul and rigging before the tallies was produced across the Republic. The PF and state has used the machinery, but still lost. There been usage of the army and pre-ticket ballots even. The state and the authorities have blocked social media and the internet, but that had to be reinstated after a court order. Therefore, everything done to keep it dark has been beaten back.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has a huge pressure on them. As the partial results and the announced reported results from the supposed strongholds of Patriotic Front (PF) have even lost MPs to the UPND. This shows the sentiment and there is no way it can be legitimately a victory for Lungu.

For Lungu and his party, this is humiliating. They had the total power for so long and has spoiled their chances. The public got tired of the mismanagement and crippling debt. Which the next government have to fix and find measures to structure the government.

HH and UPND has a huge job ahead of it. Not like Lungu and the PF have left the state in good place. Neither has the state been there for the citizens, as the elites and the patronage has earned fortunes in the years of Lungu. Therefore, the people had to voice it out and the questions of a third term is also now a non-starter.

Lungu seemed like it would be a “cake-walk” to a third term. As he had two terms and would possibly enter his third now. The PF had the power and the offices to control everything. Still, they weren’t popular or had the heart of the people. People got tired of the lacking service delivery and development. Instead they have seen how the state been run and they got tired of it.

Now, we just have to await the announcement and the proclaim the results, which is all indicating and stating the victory for Hakainde Hichilema. HH has tried this six times and finally succeeded. He has worked little by little and built a party from nothing. That shows that his message and his party needed time to get popular. It wasn’t something built overnight and as a shocker. No, he persisted and worked for it. Even he was charged with treason, blocked by the army and the state has stifled his political activism in the past.

Still, he never gave up and now he can smell the coffee. Peace.

Zambia: LAZ calls on Electoral Commission of Zambia to Discharge its Statutory Mandate without Fear or Favour and for the Restoration of Internet, Social Media in the Aftermath of Elections (13.08.2021)

Opinion: Lungu is a very worried man right now

The Patriotic Front (PF) and two term incumbent President Edgar Lungu was going to the polls today. As the sentiment and the lack of popularity in the general public has been rising. The President has to use the armed forces, come with warning ahead of polls and it is now reported that he ordered a media blackout.

What is happening in Zambia isn’t a new tactic from leaders like him. He had already used the courts and gotten the ability to become a three term eligible President. While the Constitution doesn’t say so and he wasn’t in a full-term before the second and this is why he was “eligible” for it now.

This just shows what sort of management and governance Lungu supports. Lungu who has run the economy down and becoming addicted to loans. A state who has failing state enterprises and certainly not delivered on any promises of the past, which could matter to the general public.

That is why Lungu have vilified the biggest opposition party the United Party for National Development (UPND) and Hakainde Hichilema. The party an HH has been painted in a manner, which is of epic proportions. HH has even been said to be similar to “Hitler”. That is the sort of political discourse the PF has delivered during the campaigns.

We know it’s bad for the PF and Lungu… when as the polls are counted. He calls for rigging and orders a media blackout. The same man who ordered the soldiers on the streets and done whatever he could to ensure victory. We know he has made numbers lower in known opposition strongholds. The same authority has already been reported to give little to none ballots and equipment to certain polling stations. Which is just fitting, because the PF and the state knows.

The PF and the ones anointed has done what they could ahead of this. The state and the President has used all known means to ensure a victory. Not because… Lungu is popular or loved at this point. No, his not loved or cared, because if he was…. He wouldn’t cry havoc on election night, but grinning to the bank.

Lungu will be swimming in dollars and spending a night drink champagne. Alas, he is instead ordering army out to several of provinces. To ensure there can be questions of legality and easily can contest the results. The sort of results that will not be in favour of the President and he can call it “rigged”. The ironies is that the system and the authorities has used all techniques to secure the “win”.

Lungu mus worried in his home. He is sitting biting his teeth and knowing that his time is up. That a man who has the power of the Republic and as the Head of State. Still, the will of the people isn’t naturally his.

The polls that has been released through VPN, the partial polling stations results has been for now in favour of HH and with a majority of the votes. Let’s see if this becomes the game or the ECZ and the authorities will cook the numbers. That’s what I anticipate, since this man is using all the other tricks in the book of election rigging.

Lungu is a worrisome and with a reason. His whole life and career depends on it and he is behold to the public. He could touch everything within reach and appoint the ones who would follow his orders. However, the incumbent cannot impose himself or be loved on commando. Even if that is something he hoped for tonight. Peace.

Zambia: State House – President Lungu warns perpetators of violence (12.08.2021)

Fight Inquality Alliance Zambia: Internet Shutdown and Human Rights Violations in Zambia (12.08.2021)

ACT Wazalendo: Zambian Election, We Expect Voices of Zambians Be Respected (11.08.2021)

Zambia: State House – President Lungu not invited to any debate (04.08.2021)

Zambia: Patriotic Front and Lungu will “win” this upcoming election

The 12th August 2021 is sort of protocol and procedure. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) will predetermine the elections. Just like the stronghold of the opposition have less voters in 2021 than in 2016. While in the strongholds of the PF the amount of voters has grown since 2016. Therefore, just by the voter rolls everything is prepared for the President and his party.

There will be voter intimidation and all stakes are out. It is not like Edgar Lungu can risk losing his power. This will be his third term and the Constitutional Court cleared him for it. Therefore, this is all in cards.

The main opponent Hakainde Hichilema and his United Party for National Development (UPND) will be vilified. HH have even been called “Hitler” and said to be “blood-thirsty” as he wants people to “die” to get into power. Which is very ironic, as he doesn’t have soldiers on orders and the government at his disposal.

The Patriotic Front and the government has that. They are ordering the soldiers on the streets and blocking the UNDP to hold campaign rallies and meetings. The state is targeting HH and his party. Making them into “criminals” for political activities, which isn’t new, but continues at a rampant pace. In such a manner, that the ECZ is even suspending races and stopping them from campaigning.

This is why we know the 12th August is only a rigged affair. The PF and Lungu will win. The PF will have the majority and the President will be re-elected. He will get his third term and have a majority. That is what is coming and everything else is hopeless hope. These sort of proceedings usually tend to go this way.

The PF have been the pivotal party for so long. It is used to get away with the stranglehold on government and civil society. The PF can do whatever it needs to stay in power and that will visible in the coming days.

The soldiers deployed days ahead of the polls. The use of election violence and brutal language against the opposition. Is proof of what is at display. The ECZ is already making sure they have the tools in order to deliver what the “boss” needs and anything else is a lie. We just know Lungu will not risk losing power. He has no intention of bowing down or giving way. If so, he would haven’t made the case and allowed himself to run for a third time.

We know he circumvent it, because the “first” term wasn’t a full one and he inherited the position in some regard. That’s why his “second” term in 2016 is sort of his “first” and this can be counted as his “second” even when he is his “third”. That’s how he has utilized the courts and gotten away with it. Since he has no plan to retire.

Lungu will therefore use all means to win. He will ensure “victory” and “celebrate” it. We just know this and to think anything else at this point is naive. Peace.