“One of the great opportunities of Brexit is our ability to trade more with countries around the world. I know that the right hon. Lady will want to speak to many of the Welsh farmers who are enjoying selling their lamb to the new markets that we have opened up for them. That is what we will get on and deliver” – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (09.11.2022).
The new Prime Minister in the PMQs answered a question about international trading from Liz Saville Roberts MP. Who asked a serious question in concerns with the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, which states the trade will be lowered by 15%. In response to that, the PM answered this and went on about selling welsh lambs.
This isn’t a case of only mutton. No, this is a case of botched opportunities and losing the European Single Market. The realities of Brexit is setting in and as a Third Country, the losses are piling up. That’s why the export industries has been hit and other industries have even flagged out of the United Kingdom. Because, they are safer to be within the European Union and the Single Market… than risking their bets from the UK.
That’s why it’s interesting not only the mention of a bad forecasts from the OBR. There are other reports coming with shattering numbers, which the former Chancellor should be worried about.
Just read this:
“David Jinks, head of consumer research at logistics firm ParcelHero, commented: “Britain’s exporters of goods, from food to cars, have all suffered from the impact of the poorly negotiated Brexit trade agreement and increased red tape and duties. The same applies to services, from finance to computing, which now fall outside the regulated EU services market. “Perhaps most disappointingly, these latest results reveal Britain failed to successfully transition away from the EU to other overseas markets – one of the positive outcomes promised by Brexiteers. Looking at two vital export markets beyond the EU, the numbers also tumbled. “Perhaps the situation is summed up best by looking at the UK’s exports to the whole of the EU. In 2019, they stood at a healthy £298bn. By 2021, they had slumped by £30bn to £268bn, but even that was a huge lift from the £259bn they had tumbled to in 2020, in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.”” (Chris Sparks – ‘UK Exports Slump In The Aftermath Of Brexit’ 31.10.2022, Businessplus.ie).
A conclusion from one paper:
“Across EU member states, we find that Brexit has led to a significant decline in trade with the UK in almost all cases although by varying magnitudes. Looking at the different margins of trade, we find a substantial reduction in the number of products traded from the UK to the EU. However, for EU to UKtrade, three quarters of the estimated fall in trade can be attributed to the intensive margin. This is consistent with a pattern of smaller trade flows more impacted by changes in trade costs in the UK to EU direction and hence ceasing to trade” (Janez Kren & Martina Lawless – ‘How has Brexit changed EU-UK trade flows?’, October 2022, Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) – ESRI Working Paper No. 735).
When a man like David Jinks is stating this. We have already seen how the Seafood industry and Animal industry has reacted to the effects of Brexit. There has been businesses and such who has lost out a lot, because of it. Brexit has brought a lot of ramifications and no deal or the free trade agreement (FTA) has the ability to cover the losses of trading within the EU.
Brexit promised a fantasy land, which haven’t appeared. The dreams of leaving the EU and getting full sovereignty haven’t cut it for the businesses. The exporters has been hit and the logistical firms has also been devastated by it. This is the true costs of operating from the outside and also locking itself from the European continent by default.
The losses of the trade agreements which the UK had through the membership of EU hasn’t been replicated either. Neither is it getting the same sort of treatment or abilities to export to the EU. That’s the consequence of the Withdrawal Agreement and successive negotiations ever since. The UK has failed here and they are continuing the agony.
The Prime Minister can make lofty promises and say the Brexit will create a new day tomorrow. However, the realities are the same and the UK haven’t established or been able to generate deals, which are as beneficial as being part of the single market. That is just an issue that will linger on. Because, that’s what gave the UK a huge boost and simplistic trading partner with the EU Member States, which it doesn’t have today.
So, when Sunak says there is lots of opportunities, as a result of Brexit. I don’t see it and I only see a lie. All things are showing that the downturn and the affects of Brexit is a decline. The Brexit itself has only cost and it isn’t changing for the better. Peace.
“I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. I will work day in and day out to deliver for you. This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level” – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (25.10.2022).
The Prime Minister with his announced cabinet reshuffle is really re-issuing some known faces from Boris Johnson and giving way to some of the appointees of Liz Truss. This isn’t a sign of a new era or a change towards reform. No, this is a continuation of the latter years and not much significant changes either.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn’t doing anyone any real favours here. Appoint the likes of Dominic Raab and Michael Gove. Neither is the likes of Therese Coffey or Suella Braverman choices of reason. The pick of Penny Mourdaunt seems just to buy peace, as she was his competition for the office in the first place. Others are re-appointments or re-shuffling into new positions. The one who has been everywhere this it seems, Nadhim Zahawi. That just shows it all and the public should understand the game now.
PM Sunak is just trying to find the sweet spot between the ERG, the Boris clique and the alliance around Truss. Just so he has everyone covered and within his reach. That will be tricky position and it won’t be easy to pull off. No, he has to be on the proximity of all these groups and still able to play ball. If he has shortcomings or isn’t finding the right path. There will be resignation and claims that he differs from the “mandate” and what the Tories was “elected to do”. That will be the end-game here.
Heck, what is striking that Sunak has even appointed people who was in the cabinet of Theresa May. He is re-appointing and using old heads who haven’t made things better. That’s the likes of Jeremy Hunt, who also was appointed in the last minute of Truss cabinet too. Therefore, Sunak is really just trying to play with everyone.
While his only appointing a few loyalists of himself too. Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to be many of these. That means that the ones around him are people who can turn on him quickly. The moment the buck stops and the knives are out… they will turn on him and bury him like they did the predecessors.
Prime Minister Sunak promised a government of integrity, professionalism and accountability… while he has chosen similar characters and MPs into cabinet, which has shown the opposite. The PM has taken in people who has broke the ministerial code and haven’t valued the Nolan principals either.
The PM has to prove his words, but the appointed ministers proves these words was all fluff. It was for publicity, but he appointed the opposite to unite the party. He didn’t appoint these ones to be more professional or show integrity.
Who appoints Braverman and Gove for integrity? Who appoints Raab for professionalism?
Well, this cabinet is just the Tories best-of-hits… and it’s not looking good. It is just the first day, but it’s not looking good for Sunak. Who isn’t changing tune, but is just another one. Peace.
We now see a man, who stood by, and been a loyal subject like Lord David Frost. His now the former Brexit Minister and the former chief negotiator with the European Union (EU). The member of the house of Lords, who was a part of the Brexit cause and stood by the ideals for it. A man that the PM trusted has now officially resigned. This was the project and the political reform of which both the PM and Lord Frost will be remembered for. Because, this has ushered in a new era and the stinks of it will linger on for ages.
Lord Frost who has worked with the Tories and been aligned with the framework of which the Prime Minister had set forward. Now, that seems to have been lost and he has resigned. Since, 2016 the Government has had three negotiators and three state minister’s in-charge of the Brexit. Where it has clearly failed and not delivered.
If anyone who had the portfolio or accepted these roles should be ashamed. Not that they could deliver, it was a hopeless task. Nevertheless, they took it… because they could never deliver sufficiently to the Brexiteers and neither be regarded well by the remainers. The results of which they accepted and continued negotiations are battles where the Tories cannot win. They lack of progress and proven value for money is obvious as time goes by. The Brexit is only costing, making things more hard and the pennies for independence is bonkers.
David Davis, Stephen Barclay, Dominic Raab or Olly Robbins are all part of this clusterfuck. They have during the tenure of Theresa May and Boris Johnson not succeeded. This was bound to fail anyway. However, they could have patched up on some of the hurt. These gentlemen could have worked on overtime and tried harder. However, the stipulations and policies of EU would make it hard to jade things. Unless, the UK would have some leverage in concern to the EU, which would suffice in a negotiation.
Therefore, that Lord Frost drops out of his position after a half-year and been the first secretary of state for exiting the European Union (EU), which he we’re between July 2016 to July 2018. This is a man who has been in the forefront and known the whole process.
Lord Frost has been the man who has visited, talked and discussed all matters with the EU. This is the man that both May and Johnson trusted with this. That’s why it’s striking when he ditches it all and gives up now. This is a sign that things are not going well and we knew that already. As the lack of lorries, slow exports and other damages have come into fruition as time goes on.
When a guy like this drops out. You know things are dire and it’s burning. His said to resigned because of the direction the government is going. We know things are not running smoothly. There already been a rebellion and a vote against the government stance in Parliament. The Tories aren’t united behind Johnson and Lord Frost can easily sense that.
His dropping out as the PM is suffering from the sleaze, the corruption, the mismanagement and internal in-fighting, which is eating the government alive. The Tories isn’t a well run machinery at this point. There are so many voices and no coherent strategy. That’s why things will not get better or fast.
Lord Frost sends a chilling message. The PM should listen to it. Not that he has the integrity or the heart for it. This just shows how everything is wrong and it’s not working. When even the guy who has carried the weight and done his duty for you. Resigns on his own accord. Not that I am for Brexit, but at least Lord Frost stands up for what he believed in. Even if it was foolish or ignorant of the facts of how EU operates. Since, he doesn’t get it his way or is able to negotiate what he wants.
Alas, the latest By-Election wasn’t the only defeat this week. This is the second blow and the PM soon doesn’t have any shoulders to lean on. Peace.
“The driver shortage has resulted in a dependence on agency and particularly foreign drivers that goes beyond what is needed to cope with seasonal variations and is now necessary to sustain normal operation. The dependence on agency staff means that operators in the sector are probably not investing enough in their staff. We think this creates two risks that need to be managed. First, if the UK becomes relatively less attractive as a place for foreign drivers to work, as it may do as the consequences of Brexit play out, the shortage could become much more acute, possibly quite rapidly. Second, the longer-term sustainability of the UK’s road haulage sector could be undermined if there is not a steady stream of people through the sector gaining the skills and experience that they need to become transport managers and operators” (…) “Both the industry and Government have taken steps to address the shortage. None of these are on a scale likely to deliver the number of drivers needed. The road haulage sector, supported by the Government, needs to take further steps to:
meet any shortage and reduce dependence on foreign drivers (about 60,000 drivers);
meet any predicted growth in demand; and
deal with the demographic time-bomb (about 75,000 drivers by 2020)” (Parliament.uk – ‘Skills and workforce planning in the road haulage sector’ 27.07.2016).
Sometimes you wonder if the Tories and the Cabinet Secretaries are so forgetful. You can wonder, if they care about warnings and red signs. The Brexit referendum would clearly target the haulage industry. As it is dependent on European Union citizens with license and ability to drive heavy-goods driver (HGV).
The Tories have offered a three month visa parley to everyone they sent packing after the Brexit was issued. The European Union Haulage Unions have dismissed this offer. They are saying they can easily be used, but sent straight back without any consideration for work. Therefore, the EU HGV drivers will not return to save Christmas in the United Kingdom.
Yes, the government gave this “amnesty” or ability during the weekend. At the same time it has put in regulations that all vehicles and lorries who is going into EU from the UK has to take-off their stickers with GB and change that to UK. That is actually something they have done. Just like changing colour on the passport. It is symbolic changes, but not what industries need in these dire times.
The Tories and the Downing Street needs to focus on. They are not securing the livelihoods of the HGV drivers. Neither has it made efforts or done anything for the foreseeable future. They are instead trying to patch up the hurt without any real reform for the transport sector. Which is needed to cope with the lack of trained personnel, salaries or even long-term prospects to work in the haulage industry.
The UK needs the EU HGV drivers to be able to cope. That is why we are seeing again the possibility of the army to do logistics in the Kingdom. Since, the Tories haven’t secured or made it possible for others to cover needs, which is clearly there. The Tories cannot even come with sound judgement or policies, which will make it feasible for the grandstanding departure of previous drivers to return. These will not return when they are getting pennies on the pound and working in crappy conditions while staying in UK. It is not like Boris Johnson or any of his cadre will humiliate themselves in the same regard. No, they rather spend vacations in Caribbean and hope someone else fixes the problems they created.
The Tories haven’t secure the basics. That’s why the supermarkets lacks produce and commodities, why farmers lack’s personnel to pick and secure their produce to market and finally lack of drivers to deliver the needed things across the Kingdom. The Tories haven’t given incentives or prospects for anyone then themselves.
The lack of drivers isn’t only the fault of Brexit alone. It is a systemic fault of a incompetent government. Who is all about publicity, but not about proper policies. This is why it is happening. The fuel-shortage and the empty shelves in the supermarkets says it all. It is not the fault of the public, but the politicians that promised heaven. However, they haven’t delivered the golden gates, but instead showed a little piece of hell.
Kudos to the Tories for failing in such a manner. They will blame anyone else and even say it’s the public own faults for buying petrol. The Tories will go after the companies itself, than look into own misgivings. Because that’s what they do.
What is extra tragic here is that they knew this could be amplified and gotten worse by the efforts of Brexit. However, the state didn’t act upon or take in-consideration the needs of the haulage industry. Therefore, the Tories who was in power the whole time could have made things possible, but clearly they never did. Peace.
The referendum of withdrawal from the European Union (EU) of 2016 settled the score and made it possible for the Conservative Party (Tories) to launch their campaign and gain majority of the Parliament. In such a manner, that they have had two Prime Ministers and had a long hurdle to come to terms with the EU on how to leave.
After long negotiations and plenty of delay. The final “Brexit Day” was enforced on the 31st January 2020. So, with the months that has gone and with the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement in combination with the talks between London and Brussels. There is no end to this and the effects of the matter is no obvious for everyone to see.
The ones that was Remainer and was on the side to stay in the Union is now vindicated. As it is more “red-tape” and the Brexit Agreement isn’t making things easier. There been conflict over fishing rights with France. Fish and Sea-Food have rotted in port, instead of being exported to the mainland Europe from Scotland. Imports has slowed down, hauliers stopping deliveries to the UK and foreign workers to many fields are lacking. With all of this in mind. It is not a success, but a brutal and self-inflicted suffering.
Brexit was bound fail. The utter total failure was anticipated by plenty and it’s now evident. The Brexiteers should also reflect on it. They should man-up and see the results as they are. The possible use of army to get food delivered across the Kingdom. That should say it all. As the importers are not getting their products in time and neither able to secure the delivery from the exports to Britain.
UK becoming a ‘Third County’ isn’t giving it vast freedoms. Yes, the UK could make trade-deals with Australia and Kenya. However, the major trading partners with the EU and near proximity is harden. Not like there been any good industrial news or set-up of factories. Neither, hasn’t there been news of exceptional growth.
The supply-chains have been like this for one simple reason. The UK is out of the Single-Market and there is added bureaucracy and checks on goods passing through the borders. There is need for more documents and hurdles before passing has hurt the Kingdom. That is easy reasons to see why supermarkets run out of goods. Restaurant-chains are running out of main products and cannot serve customers. Other type of goods are lacking too and if that is with the imports. How dire is the situation for the exporters?
We knew earlier in the year that the exports was hit hard. They we’re not able to send produce, sea-food and others on time. The companies was losing money and their assets was rotting in ports. With this knowledge, the same hardship is now hitting home. Not only that the British Sea-Shells and other sea-food isn’t served in Paris anymore. At least not at the scale or in such a manner, which it was in the past.
The ones pledging for this and had their way. Should stand astute and bravely say: “We were wrong and crippled our economy. We fought for freedom, but instead being left alone. Brexit was supposed to give us new profitable terms, but it hasn’t and we lost. That’s why we have to see, if we can negotiate or find new ways of getting into the Single-Market and the Customs Union. As we are now a third country with little to no say. We have to change this and we are sorry for promising the world and not even giving you chicken at Nando’s”. Peace.
Certainly, some should feel a bit vindicated these days. Especially the Remainers who campaigned for “Project Fear” which was so scrutinized and called a blame-game of a worse scenario. The last few weeks has really shown the consequences of the Brexit. A Brexit that the Conservative and Tories promised to be easy and without any real costs.
However, everyone in their right mind knows that a divorce on this scale would cost. The marriage had to end and the transactions after this would be made more difficult. The Tories haven’t made things smooth or better. The rules and regulations between the United Kingdom and European Union is hectic. Several of companies and hauliers have stopped trading with the UK. This is now costing and showing results in the supermarkets across the Kingdom. That is not shocking, but was inevitable.
The Project Yellowhammer and Worst Case Scenario of August 2019 is now playing out. Where there was talks and projected to have disruptions of food supplies and across the supply chain. That was described there and clearly it is evident now.
The recent news says it all:
“The Army has been put on standby to deliver supplies to supermarkets as Britain faces a shortage of 100,000 truck drivers. Around 2,000 personnel who are qualified HGV drivers are believed to be on a five-day notice to help distribute food and essentials including medicine. The Government is set to make a formal plea to the military for help ‘imminently’, with members of the Royal Logistics Corps and other regiments expected to be called upon by the end of September” (Siba Jackson – ‘Army ‘on standby’ to deliver food amid shortage of lorry drivers’ 08.08.2021, Metro.co.uk).
You know Brexit is a lose-lose enterprise when the businesses and the supermarkets needs the army to salvage the supply chain. The Tories and the government have failed the businesses and the consumers i.e. the citizens. They have told stories which wasn’t true.
All of the promises of a easy and simple transition is clearly out of the window. The reality is here now and the UK has to face it. The Tories got to find measures, means and possible way out of it. The soldiers and the ones who conscript to the army shouldn’t drive produce to Tesco or pick up lorries in Dover. That is just a failure if there ever was one.
This is just proving the pointers of the Remainers ahead of the referendum. The Brexiteers who promised so blatantly and wrongly that this would be a neat process. They should all take the mantle and configure this out. Since they are the ones who made it happen and ensure everyone that the basics are in order. Because, when the supermarkets and the convenient stores are running out of goods. You know you are in trouble.
There was plenty of folks who knew the Brexit and the new bureaucratic hurdles would cost, take time and stifle the logistics from Europe to the United Kingdom. The ones who has to import or export is paying the price. There has already been fish rotting in the ports and not getting through the system before they are expired. Therefore, the Brexit has destroyed businesses and ensured many are harder daily life.
The Tories especially, the wing of the Brexiteers has to take accountability. They need to fix this and not just settle with the army on standby. That is a show of weakness and that they totally failed. The Brexit isn’t a success, but a abomination of a government policy. It is a train-wreck and an insult to citizens. They sold a story of gold, but not everything that is shimmering is that. The Brexiteers sold fools-gold and a small majority believed it.
Now, everyone has to pay the price for it and surely nobody wants to hear it. Since it is visible and the HM Government haven’t got the qualified or the ability to figure this one out. The inept and corrupt government will not have the skills or the mindset to fix this. They will only make another circus and hope no-one see the real problems. Peace.