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Rwanda 1994: Gen. Paul Kagame letter of 10. August 1994 (Confidentiel)

Opinion: Suddenly President Kagame doesn’t want Rwanda to be dependent on the West!

For Africa as we wait to see what unfolds and adjust, we should be learning the lesson that we should not be entirely dependent. We will wake up to the reality there are things we should be doing for ourselves. You have made it appear that your situations are perfect and you want others to emulate you. Then you are surprised by what unfolds. It is what you have been hitting us with that is coming back to bite you. I did not change the constitution. If you want to know the truth you will find it is the people who did, not me. My satisfaction lies in the truth that we have not been involved in harming our people. What we are doing is to develop our country. If we don’t take care of ourselves, no one else will. As long as Rwandans are happy, we will keep doing what needs to be done. We will be listening to what others say but we will not be distracted from what needs to be done.”

-President Paul Kagame speaks to Gerard Baker, editor in chief of the Wall Street Journal, at the closing session of Invest in Africa conference.

President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, the long lingering Executive of Rwanda has compelled his words against dependency of the West. Surely, he has had this in mind for while in his own haven, as the Rwandan government has been a donor friendly. Therefore, that he claims now to take a stand against them shows the sudden change of attitude. However, it is sudden donors and programs that have stopped coming Kagame’s way, therefore the Rwandan government have started to run a giant tab of external debt instead of donor aid grants. Like look at some quotes from companies that establish the economic output and the financial flow of nations, like Deloitte and KPMG!

Rising debt:

“According to BMI, total external debt levels in the country have been rising steadily in recent years, from 16.1% of GDP in 2010 to an estimated 30.5% of GDP in 2015. Debt levels for 2016 and total external debt are forecast to amount to 35.2% of GDP and will be composed mostly of government debt” (Deloitte, P: 4, 2016).

Failing Foreign Aid, therefore rising debt:

“The primary headwind to the Rwandan economy in the 2016-2025 period will be the impact on debt as a result of falling foreign aid. Despite prudent fiscal policies to date, increases in debt levels will follow from the fall in foreign aid, since Rwanda is now deemed fit to transition from grant-based financing to loan-based financing by the IMF” (Deloitte, P: 5,2016).  “The government has been compelled to adopt a more prudent fiscal policy stance in an attempt to reduce the country’s dependence on donor support and increase fiscal autonomy. Recent external headwinds have encouraged the government to ease demand for imports by reassessing its infrastructure investment programme. This will undoubtedly have a negative impact on economic growth. That being said, the benefits of lower donor dependence and improved macroeconomic stability should outweigh the costs related to lower growth over the short term. Turning to external balances, Rwanda’s wide merchandise trade deficit is expected to maintain a shortfall in the overall current account going forward” (KPMG, P: 4, 2016).

“Aid harmonization has been improved and progress continues to be registered in the implementation of the Paris and Busan commitments especially the use of national budget and procurement systems. The Bank was the 6th largest Official Development Assistance (ODA) provider to Rwanda in 2013/14, accounting for 9.4% of total ODA26. The World Bank and EU invest in agriculture and energy whereas the leading bilateral DPs focus, among other things, on human development and social protection (Annex 8a). Annex 8b summarizes the progress made in implementing selected indicators as captured by the Donor Performance Assessment Framework. Use of the sector budget support (SBS) instrument has increased the share of Bank support disbursed using country systems. Under the DPCG, the Bank actively participates in activities to enhance the implementation of EDPRS II such as the 2014/15 assessment of SWGs” (AfDB, P: 9, 2016).

So if you look at the financial policies of the republic of Rwanda, some of it is not really chosen as the donors funds that has been suspended or stopped might be for several of reasons. That might be that if they accept the funds they have to follow a spectre of policies and interferes with the power that Kagame wish to achieve. The RPF and Kagame has total control of Rwanda, the export and the import, also owns dozens of the businesses. So the Rwandan government had to switch their economy with more loans, instead of donor aid. The loans are coming in through external debt as the external donor funds and grants have dwindled.

Therefore, the excuse of suddenly wanting to be independent is more a need, than a wish. If it was a wish earlier, than the AGOA or USAID to the RPF would have stopped decades ago. That should be common knowledge of the relationship between Paul Kagame and Bill Clinton. It is not that it is positive that the Rwandan Government want’s less aid is a healthy stance. Still, the excuse isn’t eaten by me.

The reality is that the increased debt instead of donor grants will hurt the economy, as the levied interest rates and other cost will hurt the economy. It isn’t healthy to be dependent of the aid either, but the reasons now seem more to reactionary than real intent. I am sure Paul Kagame would love funds from Belgium and France to build hospitals and clinics in rural regions of Rwanda. So, suddenly the West isn’t good enough, especially when they are questioning his reasons for staying in power and not having any successors while his regime is keeping a close lid on the opposition. Therefore, the economy and independent from the world becomes more important because then he needs to less show of transparency and accountability. Peace.

Reference:

AfDB – ‘RWANDA BANK GROUP COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER 2017 – 2021 (October, 2016).

Deloitte – ‘Rwanda Economic Outlook 2016 The Story Behind the Numbers’ (June 2016)

KPMG – ‘Economic Snapshot H2, 2016 – Rwanda’ (15.10.2016) link:

https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/za/pdf/2016/10/KPMG-Rwanda-2016-Snapshot.pdf

Rwanda – Another Term for Paul Kagame (Youtube-Clip)

“The government of Rwanda says its citizens want long-serving president Paul Kagame to be able to serve another term” (TV2 Africa, 2016).

Opinion: The acts against the will of people, as the Opposition are under-fire in the Burundi, Rwanda, DRC, Uganda and Kenya. Impressive how the Opposition is burning while the government tries to get away with it!

niccolo-machiavelli-quotes-5

We live in a Post-Modern world they say, still our leaders acts like medieval times, they are forcing themselves on their nations, on their economies and use their knights to secure their kingdom, their republic and fiefdom. The Opposition who is not accepting the legitimacy of these medieval acts upon their nations are harassed and taken to court, by them who act like they are above the law, as they decree the laws and are the head of state. Therefore this pattern isn’t new; Machiavelli would be proud and wonder if these leaders had read his work “The Prince”.

ZediFeruzi

Just as the wreckage of the local laws and ushering in the third term for CNDD-FDD President Pierre Nkurunziza, who has used the Army and Police to control the country by all means, as the Opposition are dwindling away… like the assassination and killingsof Zedi Feruzi (Union for Peace and Democracy – UPD), Jean Paul Ngendakumana (Front for Democracy in Burundi – Frodebu), Patrice Gahungu (Union for Peace and Democracy – UPD) and Pontien Barutwanayo (National Liberation Forces). Are some men who are gone in the wind by the power-hungry president in Burundi, while Opposition leader who wanted to live like UPD Agathon Rwasa accepted the role as Deputy Speaker in Parliament; so the leadership of CNDD-FDD controls while the real dissidents are either dead or fled as the safety to be opposition in Burundi is not a safe position as the leadership have proven vigilant in getting rid of the ones who stands in the way of Nkurunziza.

foto-free-victoire

While in Rwanda, the neighbor who have had a government under the Rwandan Patriotic Front since 1994, where the current second term President Paul Kagame is consolidating his position while the opposition lingers or have no place in the landscape as the militarized politics there does accept anything else then the will of Paul Kagame. Therefore the leader of the FDU (Forces Democratiques Unifies) Victorie Ingabire Umuhoza is lingering in jail since 2013 and is sentenced to a 15 year jail time. While the fighting Democratic Green Party of Rwanda with their leader Frank Habineza have worked to stifle the abolishment for Presidential term limits, but before that it took the party four years to be verified through the lawful process of the country when it was allowed to exist in 2013. So it is not like the President Kagame is happy about having the DGPR and the FDU in the country. Today the Lawyer (20.05.2016) representing Victorie Ingaire Umuhoza has been expelled from the African Court of Human and People’s Rights, the African Union Courts in Gambia. So the case on human rights must have tanked or been dismissed by the court, but nothing is clarified on the situation on the matter and Victorie Ingabire Umuhoza (FDU) there!

Katumbi

In the Democratic Republic of Congo the leadership around the Second Kabila, or Second term President Joseph Kabila, where there are supposed to be an election later this year and the running up to it. As the MLC have lost their leader at the ICC with Jean-Pierre Bemba charged there recently, as he was part of the “unity” government together with Kabila until the ICC caught up with him. While the Opposition have been under fire as Felix Tshisekendi is even behind the main contender in the DRC. As the Opposition went behind Moïse Katumbi, the ones behind on the 4th May 2016 was the G-7, the Collectif des Nationalistes and also Alliance pour la Republique. So the Football Tycoon and former Governor of Katanga have gotten heavy loads behind him and his candidature, while Kabila have been driving together with the military in Lubumbashi and other places. While that intimidation have not been enough as the supporters of the opposition have felt the tear-gas and Police Force dispersing them. Moïse Katumbi is now charged with hiring mercenaries and threatening National Security, with an arrest warrant on him. Certainly an effective to silence main candidate before the Presidential Election later in the year, since the Kabila government have not lead to progress or any clear-cut development. Just to put some intelligence on it: “The Police has” embarked on the track of an operation called OP Congo whose objectives, human resources , logistics, finance and modus operandi , appear to be known today as Cow Boy “, the code name that refers to Moïse Katumbi ” (LE SOFT INTERNATIONAL, 19.05.2016). With this in mind we can see how the Police have planned to take down the candidacy of Hon. Katumbi in favor of Kabila and continue the supremacy of the Kabila Family over the Congolese Republic!

Besigye 18.05.2016 Nakawa

In Uganda after a hectic and shady election, with the Police involved directly in Opposition parties movement and also government control of the Electoral Commission that had to select the men that was decided by the Executive, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the President since 1986 who have total control of National Resistance Movement and tries to crash the opposition. The way he does that is to get rid of strong leaders from Parliament like Dr. Olara Otunnu while paying loyalty to new Party Leader Hon. Jimmy Akena of Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and also not allowing Norbert Mao from Democratic Party of Uganda, therefore weakening that party to. Finally to by decree of loyal judge Stephen Kavuma who banned the Defiance Campaign for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), that has made it “legal” for the authority for the Police to house-arrest, detain and siege the Headquarters, in general making all activities of the Opposition Party illegal. By that extent making the Presidential Candidate of FDC Dr. Kizza Besigye that had the support of the people while the Ruling Party rigged the election with amp-speed had a mock swearing-in the day before the “official” one towards the Seventh Term of Museveni. Since then has been taken airlifted from Kampala to Moroto, and after local unrest in Moroto, taken back to Kampala, and he is now charged with “Treason” as he has questioned the powers to be and the President, as the sham election that we’re held is righteous to ask the legitimacy of it. So now the People’s President Besigye is now behind bars, while Museveni does what he can to again consolidate all power and continue everything as usual, while the FDC is harassed, detained and silenced by the Court Order. Even JEEMA Fourm has had visits of Police Force and even artist of Bobi Wine have been detained because they speak up against the regime. So the Police Force and the Army is the strength behind Museveni, not loyalty or love from the People, that he has lost and dwindled away, therefore he pays MPs to get the votes he need, not because of his vision or wisdom of building the nation. Therefore he prosecutes and takes down the FDC as they are everything he is not…

Odinga 25.04.2016

In Kenya, where there are some kind of calm, though there is not criminalized the Opposition, as the Opposition parties are in a Coalition, the same as the ruling regime under the Jubilee, who will become one-party instead of Coalition into the General Election in 2017. Jubilee Alliance Party will soon be truly founded though existed without legal paperwork. While the Opposition in the Coalition of Democratic and Reform (CORD-Kenya) are demonstrating against a biased Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC); something IEBC are under fire by the Opposition coalition CORD-Kenya on three Mondays. The Nairobi Metropolitan Police have gone too far in dispersing the Opposition demonstrators, as the Police Brutality is not only water-cannons and the tear-gas against leaders or the people, together with the violence of fighting and kicking civilians, even shooting at Hon. Raila Odinga car at the last demonstrations. So the violent Police are now showing hatred against the Opposition. The Kenyan Government is not detaining or directly harassing the Opposition, but the tear-gas of demonstrations and not listening to claims, instead counter-claiming they are trying to use the laws and Electoral laws to shun them from power, while even making laws to fix and allow the Jubilee Coalition to become a legitimate party in the state. So the leadership of Jubilee allows them to fix as they need, but not see the questions of opposition and use tear-gas to silence them before the General Election 2017. There are worrying signs of oppressive behavior… and also Jubilee MPs who attacks the legitimate demonstrations and questionable acts from the IEBC in the past and in the coming future election. That shouldn’t be masked to the side as the dialogue and discussion between Jubilee and CORD-Kenya, should settle this early, so they could work initially for peaceful election in unison political climate, instead of creating a valley between the Coalitions. That is not something Kenya needs…

MelesElection3f

The Oppositions does not have it easy and the levels are proven, the worst are Rwanda and Burundi, even if the DGPR is allowed to exist as long as they don’t really challenge the presidency and their regime, because if they do they will be behind bars for National Security sake like FDU Victorie Ingabire Uhuhoza. While in Burundi the Opposition to the third term president Nkurunziza have been assassinated or killed, this while the government together with stakeholders have had peace-talks with stakeholders and also the remaining Opposition; the Opposition that has not already been killed or assassinated. In Uganda the FDC former Presidential Candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye is charged with “Treason” and still many of the FDC leaders and supporters detained, while the headquarters are sieged by the Police. In Democratic Republic of Congo the Opposition Presidential Candidate Moïse Katumbi is charged for hiring mercenaries and causing problems for National Security, while the incumbent President tries to stifle the best candidate in the up-coming election by doing so, as the Opposition Parties have gone behind candidature of Katumbi. Also in Kenya, the place where it is the best in these countries to be a Opposition, as they are more free, but to an extent, if they question the government or the Electoral Reforms of the IEBC; that is not accepted by the Nairobi Police who brutally disperse the demonstrators of the Opposition and the Opposition leader Hon. Raila Odinga have been tear-gassed and his car been shot at. So there is time to settle down for the government and time for dialogue, so the escalated violence doesn’t continue into the elections, as the citizens of Kenya doesn’t deserve that and neither does the demonstrators who are being violated around the Anniversary Tower.

That’s enough for now. Peace.

Press Release from the Rwandan Parliament on DGPR’s demands for Political and Electoral Reforms (10.03.2016)

Rwanda 10.03.2016 PR

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