Opinion: Besigye doesn’t need dialogue with Museveni!

Besigye 23.02.2016 Kasangati

Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.

That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.

Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.

So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.

A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.

M7 Guards Inaguration 2016

Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.

The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!

So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.

So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.

Zimbabwe: United Bulawayo Hospitals – “Re: Industrial Action by Junior Doctors” (20.02.2017)

bulawayo-20-02-2017

#ThisFlag: “Pastor Patrick Mugadza did not beat about the Bush, his message is clear Mugabe must fall” (Footage)

“Today I am in Solidarity with Pastor Mugadza #mugabemustfall. Pastor Patrick Mugadza did not beat about the Bush, his message is clear Mugabe must fall. We have heard enough suffering and it’s high time we liberate ourselves from Mugabe’s tyranny. He is being denied his liberty because he exercised his right to freedom of speech and behaved like a true man of the cloth who advocates for social justice and good sound governance” (Lynda Tsungie Masarira, 19.02.2017)

Opinion: Please, Pastor Evan Mawarire not run for President!

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“If the opportunity presents itself . . . why not?” Mawarire said after he was asked about his presidential aspirations during an interview on Thursday” (…) “I don’t want to close the door on myself,” he added” (…) “He said “let people be allowed to do things that they feel and see if they will be able to bring change” (Machamire, 2017).

Let’s be perfectly clear, I respect and want to honour the activist and caring citizen Pastor Evan Mawarire, for his struggle and commitment for a better Zimbabwe. I salute you and your work for a better nation. Zimbabwe deserves liberty, freedom and justices for others than just the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) elite, like President Robert Mugabe and Gucci Mugabe.

So the struggle and hard work for social justice and a transparent society is worth every second that Mawarire uses for it. That Mawarire has been and is the leading champion of the poor and the ones who doesn’t have the courage to stand against the Zanu-PF elite, is not only Noble, but a proof of that for him it isn’t just words for him. Mawarire is a man I look up-to and wished I had the same drive against corruption, impunity and unjust behaviour from central government.

Since of that, I want to say to him something that is strange, but what I had in mind when I saw his interview in clips on Al-Jazeera this morning. On the aftermath that the Zimbabwean people will be electing President Mugabe even when he is dozing off in his casket. That is sad state of affairs and the proof of lacking governance in the Republic. Still, I want to ask Evan Mawarire, don’t go for public office!

Why? You might risk your voice and your possibility to trade your ethics and your standing amongst the ones who fight for justice. Mawarire you will trade-off against a rigged system and in the midst of burning of fire. The opportunities to be traded and negotiated away as the offices and the positions are offered. Just look at how the little power and the lesser acts of government titles has eaten away the changing rhetoric and public standing for Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

With that in mind, I am afraid of the future of Pastor Evan Mawarire and his #ThisFlag movement, if it goes from an activist and political influencer to being a political party. Than the initial organization and acts will be to comply and working in harmony with the political structures, instead of changing and knocking on the doors of a rotten regime.

All that matters is rule of law and stop the impunity, it might resurrect and get people active in ways that never has happen before, might even create more havoc and more public uprising than when MDC and Tsvangirai in 2002:

“he Zimbabwe registrar-general, Tobaiwa Mudede, declared that Mr Mugabe had won a fifth term in office after the results from all 120 constituencies were returned. He said Mr Mugabe had won 1,685,212 votes against 1,258,401 for challenger Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)” (…) “We foresaw electoral fraud but not daylight robbery,” Mr Tsvangirai said. “We find ourselves unable to endorse the purported election of President Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe’s president in this election. It’s the biggest election fraud I’ve witnessed in my life.” (McGreal & MacAskill, 2003).

So when he did this in 2002 and was 78 year old, now that he is 93 years old and still going, even running for next term in the coming election. The place and time for Evan Mawarire is problematic. Tsvangirai was running a big campaign and even did everything right before losing to a fraudulent election in 2002.

The same might happen as the Zanu-PF machinery will be in all-out and with all force against anyone going to question the Mugabe Administration. They will all suffer and struggle a hazardous part, no matter on what ethical ground or what policies that Mawarire will run on, the risk of losing all goodwill and all the activists. You cannot drain the system and drag it automatically with you. The people will easily be behind a man who has integrity and has the moral backbone as you have Mawarire. You are a rare breath and one out of a few. Therefore I don’t want to risk what you have for the uncertainty.

The uncertainty, the lacking machinery and the strength against the biggest and longest serving party for one-man party under Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Mugabe has been able to get enough loyalist and enough monies to pay off the ones that could question him. Certainly he will pay and rig the next election like ever before. Mugabe will use security forces, the police and army veterans to vamp-up the people to be behind long-serving president by any means.

President Mugabe, will be fierce and unapologetic against Mawarire, he has already addressed him in unfavourable ways. Therefore don’t run if you want to weaken your station and your space. You have loyalty because you have nothing to lose! Your place as an activist and a voice for the people is more worth than a title and raise for public office. You might lose many on the way, as your views and ideas of health-care, industrial policies or taxes might shrug the people of Bulawayo off! Mawarire, you never know if your policies and your programme will be selling in the minds of all Zimbabweans. No matter how Draconian the current leadership and administration is.

So please honourable and steady freedom fighter, activist and the voice of the people, don’t run for public office, don’t trade off your place and risk losing your integrity and work for justice for silver coins in office and as a politician. So many good leaders and honourable men have been eaten by office and by political life. Don’t be another civilian loosing it’s wealth of integrity over cheap tricks in office. This is a little plea from far away. Just a reminder of your power and your reach as the man you are now! Peace.

Reference:

Machamire, Farayi – ‘I would run for Presidency’ (18.02.2017) link: http://nehandaradio.com/2017/02/18/run-presidency-mawarire/#sthash.JBnCg5eU.dpuf

McGreal, Chris & MacAskill, Ewen – ‘Mugabe victory leaves west’s policy in tatters’ (14.03.2002) link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/mar/14/zimbabwe.chrismcgreal

#ThisFlag: “Back to the issues. The dreams of our youths have been stolen and we need to salvage those dreams somehow” (Footage)

Footage: Evan Mawarire update from Courts earlier today (17.02.2017)

“Update from the courts earlier today. Matter has been postponed to March 16 because the state was not ready. Our resolve remains steady in uniting the citizens of Zimbabwe as we prepare for the coming season of change. #ThisFlag” (Evan Mawarire, 17.02.2017)

Reserve Bank Gov. Mangudya says the economy of Zimbabwe is an ‘albatross’!

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The Governor Dr. J.P. Mangudya Zimbabwean Reserve Bank writes a special piece on the Zimbabwean economy, not as bleak as the one Finance Minister P.A. Chinamasa wrote in mid-year report of 2016. The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), of January of 2017, as still evident of the issues in the Zimbabwean economy. With the knowledge of the debt-burden that has arisen together with the suspended international loans, the state funds has funds dwindled. Also, the monetary and fiscal prudence has been weakening as told by the governor of the Reserve Bank. The Governor even called the Zimbabwean Economy an “albatross”, the rest of it says it all.

Zimbabwean economy needs to catch up:

“The positive spin-offs from the recent removal of Zimbabwe from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remedial measures, following successful clearance of its arrears to the Fund in October 2016, are also expected to go a long way in reducing Zimbabwe’s country risk, thus attracting the much needed foreign investment. Completion of the clearance of external debt arrears to the rest of the international financial institutions – African Development Bank (AfDB), World Bank and European Investment Bank (EIB) – is expected to further reduce the country’s debt burden that continues to be an albatross on Zimbabwe’s access to foreign finance for the past 16 years now at a time when other emerging markets have been making tremendous strides in their economic transformation. As a consequence, Zimbabwe has lagged behind and needs to catch up with its peers” (Mangudya, P: 6-7, 2017).

Reactions to drought:

“In 2016, food imports (maize and wheat), however, surged owing to the El Nino induced drought that destroyed crops in the Southern African region, including Zimbabwe. Continued reliance on imports of finished goods is unsustainable as it undermines current efforts to resuscitate domestic industrial production, leading to significant trade and current account deficits” (Mangudya, P: 15, 2017).

Other key development:

“Driven by merchandise trade developments, the current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed down by about 15.5%, from a deficit of US$1,519.4 million in 2015, to a deficit of US$1,283.9 million in 2016, partly on account of the projected decline in the import bill. Remittances, which are also a major source of import financing declined by 17.9% in 2016, from US$1,917.7 million received in 2015 to US$1,574.0 million in 2016. Of the total amount received in 2016, US$779.0 million reflects remittances from the Diaspora while remittances from International Organizations (NGOs) amounted to US$795.0 million” (Mangudya, P: 16, 2017).

Problematic government loans:

“Reflecting developments on both the current and capital account, the overall balance of payments position is estimated to have deteriorated from a deficit of US$25.8 million in 2015 to a deficit of US$186.4 million in 2016. This phenomenon reflects an unsustainable economic situation of funding capital projects using loans as opposed to equity. The danger with this scenario is that debt would become unsustainable as exports are mortgaged towards debt repayments” (Mangudya, P: 19-20, 2017).

Unbalanced economy:

“The fact that the 14.4% of the country’s foreign receipts handled by RBZ for redistribution into the market seems to have more impact in the economy is a sign of market failure. The Bank shall quickly move to redress this market failure through measures that compel banks to adhere to the import priority list and to mitigate against institutional indiscipline such as the use of more foreign exchange for personal card and DSTV transactions ahead of raw materials to produce cooking oil, for example. Financial institutions should do some soul searching and rethink on how they add value to the economy under the New Normal” (Mangudya, P: 67, 2017).

Bond- Notes introduction:

“The Bank is encouraged by the manner in which the nation embraced bond notes. The Bank has to date issued $94 million of bond notes into the market against an aggregate value of the export incentive of $107 million. Whilst the circulation of the bond notes represented by levels of deposits and withdrawals is also encouraging, the Bank is putting in place a redistributable measure that mitigates against skewed concentration of bond notes within the banking sector by limiting the maximum amount of bond notes that each bank should hold at any given point in time in relation to its level and type of transactions. This measure is necessary to ensure that bonds notes are distributed proportionately according to the customer base or customer profile of each banking institution” (…) “The Bank is directing financial institutions to strictly observe the policy to deposit bond notes into the US$ accounts without requesting the banking public to differentiate between bond notes and US$ cash. This measure is essential to ensure that bond notes continue to trade at parity with the US$ and to reflect the fact that bond notes are supported by the US$200 million offshore facility to support the demand for foreign exchange attributable to bond notes” (Mangudya, P: 67-68, 2017).

When you see this numbers alone, there would be more meat in the report that says lots of the downfalls of the economy. The Governor said the fiscal issues and debt, together with the lacking of imports and exports, the short and less infused funds. With that in mind, instead of pounding on the troubled economy, we should rather enjoy a moment of explanation of why albatross is so dire:

“something or someone you want to be free from because that thing or person is causing you problems” (Cambridge Dictionary) and this one too: “a continuing problem that makes it difficult or impossible to do or achieve something” (Merriam Webster Dictionary). So the Albatross for the Zanu-PF is the economy, even as they eat of it and deplete it. However, the turbulence and insecurity isn’t over as the trust in the Bond-Notes or the other factors as the New Normal isn’t giving. Peace.

Reference:

Dr. J.P. Mangudya – ‘“Stimulating Economic Growth and Bolstering Confidence”’ – Monetary Policy Statement, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)

EU’s own ‘Preliminary Assessment’ of the Brexit is daunting a soft break of ties!

EU UK Flags

The Brexit and the questions running on the triggering of Article 50 has been up-in-the-air since the referendum election in 2016. The sudden win in Britain and United Kingdom has not yet arrived into negotiations with the European Union, as the Tories government under Prime Minister Theresa May has tried to keep her cars at bay, while hoping for mercy from the counter-parts in Brussels. As the EU Parliament and EU MEPs might think otherwise, with the knowledge of the sleek ‘White Paper’ from the Tories Government, the legal committee of the European Union has done more preparation or delivered are more detailed document, that can tell what the British government and negotiation team has to assess. They will not have a job or getting off easy.

This document is addressing the matter with fierce tone and with clarity that hasn’t been seen from the British counter-parts. They have been more secretive or less visions on how to fix the questions of the economic and legal problems that arrives with United Kingdom leaving the EU as a Member State. That opens a lot of doors, but closes also some. The EU certainly has some bargain chips and can be it horrible for the UK government as they want to leave with something worthwhile for their electorate.

As been said in the report: “The principal of acquired rights may well apply to the continuance of specific entitlements acquired validity in the past – for example, the right to a pension or the right to be considered the owner of real property. However, the principal of acquired rights cannot logically be extended in a such way as to confer an unrestricted ongoing entitlement to specific advantages in cases where the legal framework for those advantages has fallen away, as is the case when a Member State leaves the European Union. It cannot, therefore, be considered that a person who is no longer a Union citizen will continue to have unrestricted rights such as that to live, work and study in the European Union, or to benefit from social security arrangements such as reciprocal healthcare entitlement’s unless, of course, as may be hoped, special provisions are made for the continuance of such rights. As far as the conditions under which UK nationals may reside in other Members States are concerned, it is submitted that these are matter of national laws” (EP CLA, P:2, 2017).

This specifically says if nothing special issued between the Tories and the ones in Brussels, there might be harder for UK nationals to live and work in EU Member States, which isn’t an issue today as the free movement and such has graced the opportunities for British people to reside in Spain, Italy or France for that matter instead of living in Brighton or in Swindon. This is something that will be hard question and not easy bargain for either EU or the UK government.

“The most important legislation in the area of civil justice cooperation is the Brussels I regulation (Regulation (EU) No 2012/1215) on jurisdiction, recognition and enforcement of judgements in civil and commercial matters, which would no longer apply between the UK and the Member States, meaning judgements will no longer be recognised or enforced in other jurisdictions automatically. Older bilateral agreements such as the existing between Germany and Britain may go some way to bridging the gap, but will not suffice completely. Brussel I could be replaced by the Lugano Convention (as is the case for Switzerland and others) or by ad hoc convention (as is the case for Denmark, which is excluded from civil justice cooperation). That being said, as it currently stands, the Lugano Convention was signed by the EU and not individual Member States. According to Art. 70, the United Kingdom is not one of the states entitled to join the convention” (EP CLA, P: 3, 2017).

That United Kingdom leaving the Union seems to not only have implications for the UK citizens who live and works inside the Union, but legal authorities and co-operations like the Brussels I regulation. So the civil lawsuits and the legal breaches between the nations might be altered with the restriction of UK from the Union. That will make it harder for the UK government and businesses to get legal authority or even solve legal matters on the continent, as they are not involved like they are today. So they need even to apply to Lugano Convention and follow procedures to have another way in, like the Danish government has done in the past. That means for a fixed amount of time, there will be issues between the EU Member States and UK government.

When it comes to UK businesses this is scenarios and such that will affect the state and their operations: “The Shareholder Rights Directive: The European Parliament reached an agreement with the Council on 7 December 2016 on a final text on the proposal for a Directive amending Directive 2007/36/EC as regards the encouragement of the long-term shareholder engagement. A vote in plenary is planned for March” (…) “In case of Brexit it takes effect before the time-limit for its transportation (for the most part, 2 years after publication), the UK will not be obliged to implement this directive. Even if the Brexit takes place after the date nothing guarantees that the UK will transpose it. In any case, after Brexit becomes effective, shareholders of UK companies will not enjoy rights under this directive” (EP CLA, P: 5, 2017).

This will show the aftermath of the businesses and how they will have to implement it to make sure they still are following guidelines for businesses inside the EU. That shows that even as a sovereign nation or state, they have to be parts of some long-term engagements that is evident with this one.

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As continued with: “European  Company (SE): Council Regulation (EC) No 2157/2001 of 8 October 2001 on the Statute for a European Company (SE) allows for the creation of a European public liability company, known as the Societas Europaea (‘SE’)” (…) “When Brexit becomes effective it is likely that any UK companies that have adopted SE status would lose that status. If they want to maintain it, they may need to relocate their registered office if the UK becomes a non-EEA state following a Brexit” (…) “With Brexit, this regulation will no longer apply unless the UK incorporates its contents into domestic law or makes other arrangements to maintain it. Cross-border insolvencies will become more complex as there will be jurisdictional issues to determine. Further, UK insolvency professional (notably liquidators) will not be automatically recognised as competent in other Members State” (EP CLA, P: 6, 2017).

So this is initially saying that with the loss of the EU Member State will implicate the companies’ legal status and their rights to markets that they have through the SE status in the European Union. So the UK companies have to either flee their headquarters in the United Kingdom or use time to reregister their businesses as the companies turn into new territory when their state turn into a non-EEA state, which indicates the taxation and regulatory means of their transactions and their portfolios will be changed or has to adapt to the new regime. This can be costly for the international businesses and financial markets like this can hurt the City of London.

By just these measures the UK companies and EU companies will be registered differently, if not their headquarters has to be moved to Belgium, Luxembourg or Poland to be sufficient for the regulatory bodies in the EU as their businesses will be seen as non-EEA state corporations. That affects a dozens of corporations, their employees and the financials flows in and out of the United Kingdom.

There we’re many other factors who we’re in play in the report, but they’re on the copyrights and staff regulation in the EU Organization. These are important to, but deserve to be taken on own accord and questioned by somebody who feels like it.

All the issues here brings to the clarity and must be hard read for the ones that thinks Brexit will be easy and soft for the United Kingdom when they becomes a Non-EEA State. This is a proof of the inner workings and preparations done by the diligent civil servants in the European Parliament in the Brussels. This paper sheds more light than before and also the indications of the future for political and transactions between the United Kingdom and the European Union; as the negotiation starts after the triggering of the Article 50! Peace.

Reference:

European Parliament – Committee on Legal Affairs: ‘Report on the Consequence of Brexit’ (13.01.2017)

#ThisFlag: Interview with Dr. Edgar Munatsi before their strike (Youtube-Clip)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sTVGkW_OE8

Ethiopia: La Nina and Indian Ocean Negative Dipole-Induced Drought (13.02.2017)

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