Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Abiy’s unbelievable message…

“The two peoples of Sudan and Ethiopia are brothers. Undoubtedly, there are many problems between Sudan and Ethiopia. We must intensify and cooperate in confronting and solving these dilemmas. There are many who want us to slip into each other’s fight. But these parties – whether they are governments or others – will not reap any benefit from fuelling strife between our two peoples, for us, our choice is peace between our two peoples, and our two brotherly countries. Our choice is for mutual trust to prevail between us. There should not be confrontations between us, because of external pressures” (…) “We have to control our selves; And to be restrained. This is for the sake of our common interests and the principles of good neighborliness. There should be no enmities between us, We have all respect for the brotherly Sudanese people. We believe that Sudan and Ethiopia are capable of solving all the problems and difficulties they face in the spirit of lasting brotherhood and good neighborliness” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali message to Sudan (29.06.2022).

This trick could have worked after he signed the secret agreement and pact with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki. Now in 2022 the wiggle room or believing in the words of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has worn thin. These sorts of quotes and statements seems like a smokescreen and not the real deal. Not anymore because of the “red terror” and acts of the past year.

That PM Abiy acts of talks and dialogue between neighbours could have seen as sincere. However, after the skirmishes last year. At that time he didn’t really commit and give it any real time. He just gave the Sudanese PM a few hours before he went on to another project. The PM didn’t seem interested to talk or negotiate. It seemed like it bothered and he was disinterested in the Sudanese dignitary and hold proper talks with him.

That’s why we know he don’t want any interference from IGAD or the AU. We know Abiy want a solo-mission and only goodwill. Even if his army started it and they did execute 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them. This is why the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) retaliated and went on to attack certain parts of the El-Fashaqa region. Where the to nations has staked their claim over the territories. As the Amhara settles was evicted and banished from a settlement as well.

So, when Abiy speaks of brotherhood it seems insincere now. The same is the talks of dialogue. I should wish it was true. The PM has however been very reluctant and not engaged in these things. It doesn’t help that he says “external pressures” and that they are are “capable of solving all problems”. When his army and his allies is confronting, use violence and targeting land on Sudanese territory.

Yes, it would have been nice to see Demeke Mekonnen, Abiy Ahmed Ali, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemeti and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a neutral space and with a trustworthy third party negotiators. Nevertheless, we know that is not on the cards and neither anyone who is inviting it. That’s why we shouldn’t expect an Ethiopian or a Sudanese delegation to a conference or meeting to hash out their differences.

That the AU calls for “restraint” is a natural response, as the tensions has escalated. This is all natural how the things has transpired. Abiy isn’t an honest actor and I cannot believe his words now. The Office of the Prime Minister and himself needs to do more.

This time around he needs to talk for hours and possibly days. Since, the latest executions and escalations is just furthering the actions of skirmishes of last year. Therefore, this time it’s a time for a sit-down and address the border point. Also, stop the movement of troops across it. That’s how the battles and deaths are appearing. Both parties needs to talk. This has been an escalation after the Tripartite alliance went into the Tigray Region in November 2020. Where they have gone into Sudan too.

That’s why the PM Abiy has to do more than dropping a flattering statement with words he doesn’t believing in. This isn’t enough. Peace.

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan army retake Fashaqa Al-Kubra in El Fashaga region

“Sudan’s military retakes complete control of Fashaqa Al-Kubra, after driving Ethiopia’s army from Brekht settlement during two-day fighting. Sudanese warplanes have taken part in the offensive. Dozens of ENDF military vehicles have been destroyed – local media” (Somali Guardian, 28.06.2022).

This two day battle in the heavily contested Al-Fashqa (El-Fashaga) region comes after the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) executed 7 Sudanese soldiers. Both nations has fought over the territory for some time.

In the Brekht or Bereket settlement Amhara settlers has been now forcefully evicted by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is 50km inside the Sudanese territory. So, things are changing and the Sudanese authorities are retaliating towards the Ethiopian neighbours.

These latest news aren’t only worrying. However, we knew the executions of the 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them would create tensions. Now we are seeing the Sudanese react with violence and defending their territories.

We could worry about the refugees and the ones who has fled from Ethiopia into Sudan after the start of the “Law Enforcement Operation” in Tigray region. Since the start of the warfare in the region. There been skirmishes of the tripartite alliance within the Al-Fashqa region inside Sudan. The SAF has posted and strengthened their border post because of it.

Now, they have taken it further and is proving a point. Well, that’s not shocking when the Ethiopian army is straight up executing their soldiers after kidnapping them. It is like asking for it. We just have to hope the SAF doesn’t clash even further or push onto Ethiopian soil.

There is a need for talks, but we know how condescending Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was towards former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. So, time will tell if he acts differently towards the President and the Deputy of the Sovereign Council. However, I wouldn’t count on it. Abiy isn’t that kind and would only drop a “brotherly” statement if he feels his losing or lacking results for his cause.

Time will tell how this goes… but this is not looking good and the parties needs to resolve the differences. Before it escalates into a full-blown war. Peace.

Ethiopia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Press Statement (27.06.2022)

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: SAF confirms that the ENDF executed 7 soldiers (POW)

This is a worrying escalation of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) when they are executing Prisoners of War (POW) or soldiers of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is happening after the skirmishes happening in the Al-Fashqa region and in the Malakawa area. It has happened as an escalation in the internal conflict of Northern Ethiopia. As the ENDF and Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” has entered Sudanese territory. Because, the Ethiopian government wants to further it’s territory into it.

Now the ENDF has taken it further and shown their acts. They have executed and killed foreign soldiers in their domain. That says a lot about how the regime in Addis Ababa operates. This should not only be a warning, but possibly block all sort of dialogue or relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa.

Khartoum now see what sort of neighbours they have at the moments. The Prime Minister Abiy speaks of brotherhood, but he has no issues of killing. That has been evident ever since he started his reign in Oromia and Ogaden region with mass-arrests and extra judicial-killings. Therefore, the continuation of that was furthered in the “Operation Law Enforcement” in the Tigray region. Which with the movement of troops ended up in a contest region within Sudan. The SAF has stopped the entering and the skirmishes. Still, it has been active since the start of the war in Tigray.

Just read the statement published by the Times of Sudan today!

“Sudan | Armed Forces: The Ethiopian army executed 7 soldiers and a captive citizen

The armed forces issued a statement today about the Ethiopian army’s execution of seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were captives of it.

Statement text:

In the name of Allah the Most Merciful Most Gracious

Sunday 26 June 2022

Statement

God Almighty says: (Among the believers are men who are true to their covenant with God. Some of them have fulfilled their vows, and among them are those who wait, and they have not changed in the least).

In an act that contravenes all laws and customs of war and international humanitarian law, the Ethiopian army executed seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were their captives, and then presented them to their fellow citizens with all contempt.

The Sudanese Armed Forces, as they extend their deepest condolences to the families of the honorable martyrs, affirm categorically to the honorable Sudanese people that this treacherous situation will not pass without a response, and it will respond to this cowardly behavior in what suits it because Sudanese blood is precious, (And those who have wronged are going to know to what [kind of] return they will be returned).

Heaven and eternity for our righteous martyrs, God is great and glory is to Sudan.

The Office of the Official Spokesperson for the Armed Forces.” (Times of Sudan, 27.06.2022).

This is worrying and the Prosperity Party cannot talk about peace. When they in “peace-time” with Sudan is killing their soldiers and executes them. That just a signal of how the Ethiopian authorities acts towards supposed enemies and how it operates. This is more than a warning shot, but should put the region on red-alert. Especially, the border forces in the Al-Fashqua region of Sudan.

Since, the ENDF is able to do this now. We have seen and heard months ago about the skirmishes in Sudan. Now, they are doing this. It is not looking good… and should send cold chills down your spine. Peace.

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: New skirmishes at the border on Saturday

“Sudan’s military sent fresh military reinforcements to the border with Ethiopia, a day after Ethiopian troops launched cross-border attack, killing more than 20 Sudanese soldiers. Sudan’s army says it will confront Ethiopia’s attempt to thwart the “harvest season” at Fashaqa” (Somali Guardian, 28.11.2021).

Yet, again there is reports of Ethiopian army or affiliates crossing the border from the Western Tigray region at the Al-Fashaga region inside Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) where attacked yesterday and it’s happening yet again. This isn’t the first time, but there been skirmishes like this in the previous year in the same area.

“Sudanese military repels a new cross-border attack by Ethiopian troops backed by Amhara militia near Malakawa area, 17km deep into Sudan border – Sudanese media reports.

Fighting lasted for several hrs. At least one Sudanese soldier reportedly killed, others wounded”

That’s why its hard to believe that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) says this today to the press.

The Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Berhanu Gula, “Ethiopia does not want war with Sudan,” and we’ll solve border encroachments on Ethiopian territory through law and dialogue. What is happening now is an attempt by Sudan to invent a war between the two countries.” (28.11.2021).

There been further reports of an additional 33 wounded in the clash as well. Therefore, this has been bloody and devastating. What do know from reports of late, is that the Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” and Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) have had battalions in the Western Tigray. Where they have also committed massacres in Humera area in November 2021. Therefore, these are soldiers and militia members who are willing to kill…

These has both in the past year crossed into this region and attacked on Sudanese soil. So, this isn’t the first nor the last time they will do this. As the tensions and the border dispute continues. This is far from over… and that shows the first clashes and skirmishes in the region by the parties happened in late December 2020 and we are in late November 2021. Therefore, this has been a prolonged conflict by the parties. While they have been unwilling to settle it. We know the Ethiopian government haven’t been willing and only had small-talks with the Sudanese government officials. Peace.

Ethiopia: The World Oromo Congress (WOC) – Statement on the Threats against the Security of Oromo Political Prisoners (26.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Press Release by the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces (UFEFCF) on Ongoing Genocide in Ethiopia! – Subjecting the Entire People of Tigray to Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide in Ethiopia Must Be Immediately Stopped and Condemned in the Strongest Possible Terms! (26.11.2021)

Ethiopia: Abiy sounds like his winning the war…

“What you see behind me is a mountain area that was a strong hold for the enemy until yesterday. Now we have managed to clear the area fully. The morale of the defence forces is really great. This war is being undertaken with great feat. Now we have taken Kasagita. Today we will take over Chifra and Burqa. We will continue until Ethiopia’s freedom is ensured. We want to see is an Ethiopia that stands on our sacrifices – either to be Ethiopian or to be Ethiopia. We are confident that we will make this happen through victory. Our people are beside us” (…) “Our people beside us. Our brothers in Ethiopia are using all their capacity to making their voices heard. Academics are making their voices heard. Our role then is to be at the forefront leading the forces and ensuring success. You have seen the victory attained in a one day battle. This will continue with many great victories. The enemy does not have the posture that can compete with us. We will win. And we will transfer a free and prosperous country for our children. That is what we are here to do. And the results are good.” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali at the frontline in Afar Region (26.11.2021).

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy released a video from the frontline in Afar Region. The area where the Tigray Defence Force (TDF) have stagnate and not been able to get through. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and Afar Regional Special Forces have been able to stop the invasion from the TDF, which had plans to get to the strategic town of Mille. However, this is something the TDF haven’t been able too and they have been hit back there.

What is clear here is that the ‘counteroffensive’ is done in the Bati and Chifra areas of the Afar Region. This is done while the TDF and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) alliance was moving forward and getting close to Addis Ababa (Finfinne). This is a clear motivation to stifle movement forward or advancing in strategic parts of the Amhara Region. While the TDF-OLA alliance have been able to create a lot of damage there. While the ENDF and allies are trying to get back into Tigray region by manoeuvring with additional manpower in the Afar region. However, we don’t know how long that can hold.

Since, the ‘counteroffensive’ cannot continue or be viable. If the Debre Birhan is falling. As the sooner or later is encircling Addis Ababa. As the OLA and the joint forces on the frontline will have ability to advance for several parts of Amhara and Oromia. That is why the ENDF have to return back and redeploy to safeguard the capital, which they cannot afford to loose to the United Front against the ENDF and it’s allies.

What is striking about the PM is that his still have the same rhetoric, as he had of late. While only claiming his forces are fighting for Ethiopia. Just like the TDF-OLA United Front isn’t fighting for the Republic either. That is like saying only your side is fighting a just war. This just shows the current narrative and undermining the others. However, that is natural, as the PM and allies ordered the war and it has backfired.

The PM now wants to seem confident…. He wants it seem like they have control and has strengthen their cause. Abiy is forgetting about the current Nationwide State of Emergency and all the revisions of it. Which only shows the problems of the state, as well, as the need for the PM to be in the frontline. Since the Head of State should be in the situation room and discuss the overview of the war. So, he could have a total oversight over the conflict he ordered in November 2020. Now, he has to sound like he got it, but we know he don’t. As there are speculations of advancing TDF in Amhara region on several of fronts. This means they are encircling Addis Ababa.

The TDF-OLA United Front aiming at Addis Ababa would hurt the FDRE more than taking Mille. At this point, that makes more sense and the victory of bashing itself in the capital would damage the PM forever. To take a territory in Afar region wouldn’t do the same damage to his reputation or his armies. This is maybe why they have focused their troops on the fronts in Amhara region. That is clear by how things are going.

Lastly, it’s been a while since I seen someone so fresh and clean at a frontline. Seemed like he was untouched and straight from the shower. No dust, no wrinkled clothes and just Metal Gear Solid or Battlefield for PlayStation ready. However, but who I am to judge. I am sure he just came directly from the Palace to the frontline that day. Peace.

Ethiopia: Millions more in need of food assistance as a direct result of conflict in Northern Ethiopia, says WFP (26.11.2021)

Of the people across northern Ethiopia in need of assistance, more than 80% (7.8 million) of them are behind battle lines.

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, November 26, 2021 – The number of people in need of humanitarian food assistance across northern Ethiopia has grown to an estimated 9.4 million as a direct result of ongoing conflict, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced today.

Amhara region – the frontlines of the conflict in Ethiopia – has seen the largest jump in numbers with 3.7 million people now in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Of the people across northern Ethiopia in need of assistance, more than 80% (7.8 million) of them are behind battle lines. It is vital that food assistance can cross battle lines to reach families in need.

• This week WFP delivered food to over 10,000 people in the Amhara towns of Dessie and Kombolcha on behalf of the Joint Emergency Operation (JEOP). These are the first distributions to happen in these towns since they were taken over by Tigray Forces almost a month ago. WFP was only granted full access to its warehouses in the region last week.
• The nutrition situation across North Ethiopia is deteriorating with screening data from all three regions showing malnutrition rates between 16%-28% for children. Even more alarmingly, up to 50% of pregnant and breastfeeding women screened in Amhara and Tigray were also found to be malnourished.
• To date WFP has reached more than 3.2 million people with emergency food and nutrition assistance across northern Ethiopia, including 875,000 vulnerable mothers and children with nutritionally fortified food in Tigray and Amhara.
• United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) flights into Tigray resumed on Wednesday, rotating the first humanitarian workers into and out of the region since a security incident on 22 October.
• WFP needs a million litres of fuel to be able to reach the 7.8 million people who are currently behind the battle lines and in urgent need of food assistance. Tigray Authorities have made fuel available for WFP in Kombolcha – with an initial batch of 45,000 litres already on its way to support the scale-up of food assistance in Tigray.
• A convoy loaded with 2,200 metric tons of life-saving food is expected to arrive in Mekelle in the coming days, 35 trucks have arrived so far. In addition, trucks loaded with food from Kombolcha are being sent into Southern Tigray today.
• Corridors into Tigray had been closed due to the recent Tigrayan offences on Afar and Amhara, as well as severe disruptions in clearances from Federal Government. Since mid-July, less than a third of the supplies required to meet estimated humanitarian food needs have entered the region.
• In Tigray, in this current round of food assistance, WFP has reached 180,000 people – just 7 percent of the 2.5 million WFP needs to reach.
• In Amhara, WFP has reached more than 220,000 people with food and nutrition assistance and is scaling up to reach 650,000 people.
• In Afar, WFP has distributed food to 124,000 people out of its targeted 534,000.
• WFP’s Northern Ethiopia response urgently requires US$316 million to deliver assistance over the next six months. Across the entire country, WFP has an unprecedented funding gap of US$579 million to save and change the lives of 12 million people over the next six months.
• Funding shortages have already forced ration cuts for some 710,000 refugees and 2.4 million food insecure people in Somali region.

Ethiopia: Joint NGOs/CSOs letter to UN Human Rights Council – The UN Human Rights Council should urgently hold a special session to address the ongoing human rights crisis (25.11.2021)